It says exports in 2017 should grow for the first time in five years.
The main reason is that oil prices have bottomed out. The oversupply witnessed this year due to increases in production capacity of several countries, particularly Iran and Iraq, should be relieved to a significant extent after the fall in the United States’ production of shale oil.
Coupled with the gradual revival of global economy, oil demand and consumption should go up. The International Monetary Fund recently forecast that global oil prices in 2017 would average US$50.60 per barrel, an increase from $43 in 2016.
These are contributing factors to Thai exports of such oil-related goods as refined fuels, plastic resins, chemical products and rubber, which combined account for more than 13 per cent of total Thai export value.
Meanwhile, exports to emerging markets, such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) and “new frontiers”, have continued to grow, reaping the following advantages. The CLMV countries are among the strongest in the world in terms of economic growth, at around 7-8 per cent. Thai exports to CLMV (roughly 10 per cent of total export value) have already outpaced those to the European Union and Japan. Major exports with high prospects in CLMV include consumer goods and construction materials.
The average growth of Thai export value to so-called new-frontier markets over the past 10 years has been 10.5 per cent annually, higher the overall average of 6.8 per cent per year.
Thailand’s export value base in 2016 is small, having contracted every year since 2013. Growth in export value this year is expected to be flat, or possibly minutely positive. Therefore, from such a small base, export value in 2017 is predicted to expand to some extent.
However, certain concerns prevail for Thai exports in 2017, including the stated protectionist policies of the incoming US president, which may have impacts on Thai exports, both positive and negative.
The US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership would help relieve Thailand’s disadvantages against its major trade competitors that are in the TPP, especially Vietnam, which is Thailand’s main competitor in exports of such products as electronics, textiles, shoes, canned seafood, and air-conditioners.
Increased US tariffs on imports from China would be an opportunity for Thai exports to win back some market share, as Thai goods such as automobile tyres and air-conditioners have been in competition with Chinese goods in the United States. However, such measures could also affect Thai exports of raw materials and semi-raw materials to China for the latter’s exports of finished products to the US. Some of these products are parts and accessories for smartphones and computers.
Moreover, the researchers recommend keeping a close watch on the nationalism tide, and how much that will determine the outcome of the German and French elections in 2017. If there is a switch in the ruling political parties, money-market and foreign-exchange fluctuations will be seen from time to time. Therefore, Thai exporters should get prepared to cope with such challenges with the use of risk-hedging tools.

Consumers in each age range differ in their decision-making processes, and there are also different decision-making patterns in the purchase of different products. This is especially true with real estate, which is a high-involvement product where decision-making is more complicated than for buying consumer goods in general. Because of the public’s familiarity with these goods, it is often not necessary to do comparative research to evaluate one’s options.
The question today is how decision-making towards real-estate purchases has changed with the current sombre mood due to the |passing of His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej on October 13. How should business operators |prepare for the change?
One month on, the public is understandably inconsolable. If you ask me if the real-estate market now is in bad shape, I’m really not 100 per cent sure because industry operators still cannot do much to change the situation. Even advertising media are still not being fully used. This is particularly the case with outdoor media like billboards that, in the past, had quite an impact on the buying decisions for real-estate products.
In fact, we have had to adjust to the situation and slow down events for our projects. As of now, we still cannot anticipate how long this period of sadness will continue to affect purchasing decisions.
We have to admit that television has a considerable impact on consumer behaviour. I believe that people’s emotions and feelings will be back to normal when regular TV returns to normal. For now, all I can say is that most consumers are not in the mood to buy. This is obvious from the lighter traffic at department stores and community malls.
Recently, I had an opportunity to talk with securities analysts. Many asked me what would indicate that everything has returned to normal. It was a tough question to answer because no one knows for sure. But what we, and many other operators, are facing now has less impact on consumer-buying decision for low-rise products – townhouses and detached homes – than for condominiums.
This is despite the fact that marketing activities have not been back in full force. We can still see one indicator that is evidence of real demand. Business can move on, though it may not be like during normal times.
For example, sales of AP’s low-rise projects between October 14 and November 20 were worth Bt1.980 billion, of which townhouses accounted for Bt1.565 billion and detached homes for Bt415 million. For the condominium market, we have to admit that it has been quiet to some extent because there are two groups of condominium buyers – investors and people buying a place in which to live.
In this situation, investors are not so keen. But those wanting a place to live in continue to check out the residences they purchased and have ownership transferred.
So if we look at the demand that is still there – low-rise projects continue to sell and buyers continue to transfer condo ownership – the fundamentals of the real-estate industry are not so bad. What we can do is monitor the pattern of purchase decision-making before the end of the year to see if the market has returned to normal.
We need to keep an eye on the number of visits to our projects, online registration for news and information and, last, sales numbers, while keeping ourselves prepared for when consumer-buying decision patterns return to normal. We can then be ready to go full speed ahead.

The report, “The 2017 Global Credit Outlook for Banks: Risks Remain Significant amid Sluggish Growth, Heightened Political Uncertainty, and Low Interest Rates”, highlights protracted global economic recovery, heightened political uncertainty, low interest rates, and the still-evolving regulatory landscape as key risk factors weighing on the operating environment for banks globally.
After an extended period of material balance-sheet strengthening for most international banks, S&P believes that low economic growth, pressure on margins, and growing competition from non-bank players will keep pressure on the long-term sustainability of banks’ business models.
The constraining factors for bank ratings in 2017 include weaker prospects for earnings growth globally, potential risks related to British voters’ decision to leave the European Union, and more generally increased political risks.
A snapshot of banking industry country risk assessment (BICRA) trends – which reflect S&P’s view of at least a one-in-three probability that economic risk or industry risk of operating in a banking environment could change – suggests that 11 of the 20 largest global banking markets face negative pressure. Only two have positive trends (Italy and Spain), and seven are stable (Mexico, Singapore, France, South Korea, the United States, the Netherlands and Switzerland).
“Out of the 85 banking systems where we publish BICRAs, 47 per cent of banking systems have stable trends (on both economic and industry risk), 42 per cent have negative trends (on one of the two factors), and 11 per cent have positive trends (on one of the two factors),” the research said.
Since its last global credit outlook for banks published in July, the proportion of banks with a negative outlook or on CreditWatch negative (with a “negative bias”) increased in the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America.
Meanwhile, the percentage of bank ratings in the Middle East and Africa with a negative bias fell mostly because of negative rating actions taken earlier in the year (for example downgrades of several Nigerian banks).
The proportion of banks with a negative bias in North America, Western Europe, Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States, and Central and Eastern Europe were largely unchanged from July. The highest negative bias continues to be in Russia/CIS, primarily reflecting Russia’s stressed operating environment.

Given its vision “To Make the Capital Market ‘Work’ for Everyone”, SET chairman Chaiwat Viboonsawat said yesterday that as a key economic-growth driver for 2017, the exchange was committed to continuing its development with inclusive growth and promoting the government’s economic development for Thailand 4.0.
SET president Kesara Manchusri said that under its three main inclusive strategies, the exchange would become a fund-raising “cultivator” promoting targeted industries and clusters, list foreign assets for new listings, and allow the government to raise funds on the bourse in order to lessen public debt.
While strengthening listed companies through capital-raising for business expansion, the quality of business operations with good environmental, social and governance practices will be developed and a start-up ecosystem will be established through training and trading-platform development, she explained.
Kesara said listed companies would be encouraged to take part in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) and Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index, while a CLMV Index would also be established.
The SET targets increasing market capitalisation by Bt550 billion next year, with Bt280 billion coming from new listings and Bt270 billion expected to be accounted for by capital increases by listed companies.
About 25 per cent of the new listings are projected to come from targeted industries.
Meanwhile, the cultivator strategy entails creating an investment culture through knowledge improvement and investment promotion via digital platforms, Kesara said.
The exchange also aims to forge an investment savings plan for long-term investment and the ageing society, providing investment knowledge through pension funds, while standing ready to be the central registry for mandatory provident fund schemes, she said.
The SET’s Fund Connext will commence in March, making it more convenient to invest in mutual funds, the bourse president said.
About 110,000 new individual investors are targeted in the Thailand Futures Exchange, she added.
The SET’s last main strategy for 2017 focuses on the excellence of the Thai capital market’s infrastructure and capability to cope with businesses that will have connectivity through standardised digital platforms, including open architecture and cyber-security, Kesara said. The settlement process will also be improved, with planned settlement being shortened to two trading days, or T+2.
“The SET’s main plans for 2017 will play a major part in promoting the government’s Thailand 4.0, strengthening operators, building capital-market infrastructure and preparing for the upcoming ageing society,” Chaiwat said.
The SET Index, as of November 22, had provided the highest yield this year among the Asean-5 countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand – advancing 15 per cent to 1,485.68 points.
The Thai exchange also topped the market-liquidity list for the fifth consecutive year, with an average daily trading turnover of Bt53.44 billion.
The stock exchange was also the champion among its Asean-5 peers for the market capitalisation of initial public offerings so far this year, at Bt136.68 billion, while its listed companies’ fund-raising had climbed by Bt273.47 billion, as of October 30.
The combined market capitalisation of the SET and the Market for Alternative Investment rose 18 per cent from the end of last year, to Bt14.88 trillion.

This year’s new-loan target is Bt170.04 billion. In the quarter, the bank’s outstanding loans increased 5.01 per cent from the end of 2015 to Bt906.04 billion. Its net profit was Bt7.45 billion.
“This year, the bank has developed a greater variety of loan products to meet all groups of customers’ demands, and that |has promoted new loan expansion consistently,” said Chatchai Sirilai, president of GH Bank.
Such products included those in conjunction with the Pracha Rath project for low-income earners and a housing project for the elderly.
After six months of the bank’s financial-education project aiming to help people own houses in the future, about 15,000 persons nationwide had registered for the project as of November 7 and about 1,300 had opened deposit accounts under the project’s conditions.
At the end of the third quarter, the bank’s assets had climbed to Bt988.21 billion and its deposits increased to Bt791.05 billion.
GH Bank’s non-performing loans declined by 0.16 percentage point quarter on quarter to 5.60 per cent of total loans as a result of its new measures for financially troubled customers. Its capital adequacy ratio was 16.21 per cent, compared with the Bank of Thailand’s minimum requirement of 8.50 per cent.
Chatchai said the bank was also going ahead with projects to provide affordable housing loans, while relying more on financial technology.
Such financial technology is seen in the four GH Bank Smart Branches opened this year, GH Bank Smart Receipts, and development of PromptPay services.