As the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country, Indonesia seems the likeliest place for ISIS to try to establish a satellite province of its so-called caliphate, a foothold from which to expand its influence from its heart in the Middle East.

Already, Indonesia’s most-wanted terrorist, Santoso, has pledged his East Indonesia Mujahidin group , which operates in Central Sulawesi, to ISIS’ cause. The terror group has also established links with militants in East Java, Lampung in Sumatra, South Sulawesi and West Sulawesi.

“There are 22 groups in Indonesia that have pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,” said Dr Gunaratna, referring to ISIS’ self-styled caliph.

“As long as those groups exist, there will be extremism not just in Indonesia, but also in the region.”

ISIS’ influence in the Philippines is also growing, with some experts going so far as to say that the authorities have no time to waste.

After a year-long discussion between local terror groups that had pledged allegiance to ISIS, Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon was chosen to head ISIS in the Philippines, according to Dr Gunaratna.

He believes the Philippine military should deploy itself in the country’s south now to nip the situation in the bud before it escalates. He said: “Our assessment is that ISIS will declare a satellite state in Southeast Asia, and it could be a combination of elements in the Philippines and Indonesia, or it could be first in the Philippines, then in Indonesia.”

Closer to Singapore, Malaysia is also grappling with the spread of ISIS ideology, said Associate Professor Kumar Ramakrishna, head of policy studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

This has even taken root within its military. Last October, two 28-year-olds were arrested at a special forces camp in Malacca for trying to spread ISIS ideology among soldiers. They are among at least 13 military personnel who have been arrested for suspected links to ISIS, according to Malaysian police.

“On top of that, ISIS has an Indonesian and Malaysian unit of fighters – the Katibah Nusantara – in Syria, and these people will come back one day, perhaps sooner rather than later,” said Dr Ramakrishna.

The Katibah Nusantara is said to comprise about 700 fighters from Indonesia and 200 from Malaysia.

ISIS’ ability to mount more devastating and coordinated urban terror attacks in this region will be strengthened as more of such trained, hardened fighters return to their home countries.

Despite its distance from the Middle East, Southeast Asia is a coveted prize for ISIS, and its efforts here show that.

It is not hard to see why – the region is home to a quarter of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims, noted Dr Ramakrishna. “Southeast Asia is a natural ’strategic reserve’ for ISIS in that sense. Also, the region straddles important sea lanes of communication that are vital to world trade,” he said.

Establishing a foothold in the region would allow ISIS to “mobilise, radicalise and militarise a segment of the Muslim community”, said Dr Gunaratna.

He said: “The Middle East is too far, but an entity (in Southeast Asia) can be a hub for groups to come to for training, strategy and funding… that’s why this must be prevented.”

Investigations showed that they supported the armed jihad ideology of terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

Some of them had considered waging armed jihad overseas, but they were not planning any terrorist attacks in Singapore, said the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) yesterday.

The men, who were working in the construction industry here, were detained between Nov 16 and Dec 1 last year.

Of the 27, 26 were members of a closed religious study group that subscribed to extremist beliefs and teachings of radical figures like Anwar al-Awlaki, an American and Yemeni Islamic lecturer alleged to have ties with militant group Al-Qaeda. Awlaki was killed in a drone strike in Yemen in September 2011.

The remaining man was not a member of the study group, but was discovered to have been undergoing radicalisation. He supported extremist preachers and possessed jihadi-related material.

All 27 have had their work passes cancelled, and 26 of them have since been repatriated to Bangladesh, where the authorities were informed of the circumstances of their repatriation.

The last person is now in prison for attempting to leave Singapore illegally after learning of his fellow members’ arrests. He will also be repatriated once he completes his sentence.

In the course of their arrests, the Internal Security Department recovered a “significant amount” of radical and jihadi-related material, such as books and videos containing footage of children undergoing training in what appeared to be terrorist military camps.

Several members also possessed a shared document with graphic images and instruction details on how to conduct “silent killings” using different methods and weapons.

An excerpt from the document, which depicts in a graphic manner how one can attack and kill with stealth. IMAGES: MHA

The group members took measures to avoid detection by the authorities, sharing jihadi-related materials discreetly and holding weekly gatherings to discuss armed conflicts involving Muslims, said MHA.

“They also carefully targeted the recruitment of other Bangladeshi nationals to grow their membership,” said the MHA.

A number of members admitted that they believed they should participate in and wage armed jihad on behalf of their religion. Several contemplated travelling to the Middle East to take part in the ongoing conflict.

Some of them were in support of terrorist groups that killed Shi’ites as they considered Shi’ites to be “deviant”.

They also bore grievances against the Bangladeshi government over its actions against some Islamic groups and leaders.

“Members were encouraged to return to Bangladesh and wage armed jihad against the Bangladeshi government. They had also sent monetary donations to entities believed to be linked to extremist groups in Bangladesh,” said MHA.

The Government takes a serious view of any form of support for terrorism.

Any person – foreigner or otherwise – who engages in any activity that threatens to harm Singapore’s national security and racial and religious harmony will be firmly dealt with under the law.

“Foreigners are guests of our country and they should not abuse this privilege and use Singapore as a base to import their own domestic political agenda and carry out activities in pursuit of such an agenda,” MHA said.

“In the same way, foreign religious speakers who propagate divisive doctrines which could lead to mistrust, enmity and hatred among local religious groups and undermine Singapore’s social cohesion are not welcomed and will not be allowed to operate in Singapore.”

Some are long-term projects that will be completed beyond the current fiscal year: including one by the Ministry of Defence, two by the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, three by the Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development, one by the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, eight by the Ministry of Electric Power, eleven by the Ministry of Education, and sixteen by the Ministry of Health.

The supporters carried placards and banners declaring their support for Senator Grace Poe and chanted her name as she arrived to attend the hearing at the high tribunal.

The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) had disqualified Poe because she failed to meet a 10-year residency requirement for presidential candidates and was not considered a natural-born Filipino.

In a statement, the 47-year-old first-time senator said she was confident that the law would be on her side.

“I don’t believe in the view of some who think that a foundling is a stateless person or one without nationality when they were born,” she said. “It is the law’s responsibility to protect the right of the weak and the powerless.”

Poe was abandoned as a baby on the steps of a church in the central city of Iloilo and was adopted by a late Filipino action movie star, but the identities of her biological parents are not known. She renounced her citizenship in 2001 to reside in the United States with her husband, but later returned and became a dual Philippine-US citizen.

Other contenders for the presidency are current Vice President Jejomar Binay, former interior secretary Mar Roxas, Rodrigo Duterte, a tough-talking mayor of a southern city, and veteran Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago.

More than 18,000 positions are up for grabs in the Philippines’ general elections on May 9, 2016, including president, vice president, senators, congressional representatives, provincial governors, city and town mayors and vice mayors.

“He was the leading voice in the passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (trade pact) and is definitely more pro-US, pro-West than Trong,” said Professor Zachary Abuza of the National War College in Washington.

During the flap with China in 2014, when a Chinese oil rig was placed in waters claimed by Vietnam, Dung was the most outspoken leader, taking a hard line that went down well with the people.

Trong and Dung are “polar opposites”, Prof Alexander Vuving at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies wrote in The Diplomat on Saturday (January 16).

“Trong is a mandarin, while Dung is a capitalist; one is loyal to his principles, the other to his profits. This personality contrast is one of the reasons for the severity of their clash,” Prof Vuving said.

One reason Dung is said to want the top post is that if he is not party chief, he would probably have to retire. Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, a protege, would succeed him as prime minister, but Dung himself would be out of power.

He has survived talk of corruption and nepotism to serve two terms as prime minister, a post just below that of general secretary.

“There is some ego involved and certainly he is out to protect the interests of his friends and family,” Prof Abuza said. Dung’s two sons are in provincial-level party politics, and one daughter is in the public sector.

“But he does have a fundamental vision for moving the country forward and he says Trong is holding the country back. There’s always been charges of nepotism… but it doesn’t mean he is not committed to economic reform. No one has pushed for privatisation of state- owned enterprises as hard as him.”

The fight in the normally opaque one-party communist state has spilled over into social media. The social media chatter has drawn a warning from the deputy minister of information and communications that the public should be wary of disinformation.

If Trong continues as party chief, analysts do not expect any dramatic change in the direction of Vietnam – or in its policy towards China, which is essentially to balance the increasing assertiveness of its northern neighbour with warming ties with the United States.

Indeed, Trong himself evolved in the role. When he became general secretary in 2011, he was widely seen as pro-China, but last year, he met President Barack Obama at the White House. Obama is due to visit Vietnam in May. The TPP was passed under Trong’s watch.

Singapore-based Chan Jin Lai, a country risk analyst with BMI Research, said in an interview: “We see no reason for new leaders to divert from current economic policies.”

Those policies have enabled Vietnam – despite some ups and downs – to close 2015 with fourth-quarter gross domestic product the highest in five years, rising 7.01 per cent compared with 6.9 per cent over the same period in 2014.

“Vietnam’s economic engine is fuelled by a rapidly emerging middle class and no change in Hanoi is likely to disrupt the stable growth that has marked recent years,” said Chan.

Added Prof Abuza: “The policies we have seen for the past few years are going to continue. They are not going to be reversed. But (under Trong) they are not going to be faster.’’

The incumbent

Nguyen Phu Trong, 71, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam

Trong, has a reputation for being quiet and scholarly.

In 1981, after years of involvement in the party’s ideology and propaganda, some of it editing the party journal Communist Review, Trong went to the Academy of Social Sciences in the then Soviet Union where he earned a history degree.

As secretary of the party’s Executive Committee for Hanoi from 2000 to 2006, he was essentially the head of the city authority. In 2006, he was elected chairman of the National Assembly, and in 2011 he was elected general secretary of the party, becoming part of its now 16-member Politburo.

Trong, initially thought to be pro China, made history in July 2014 when he visited the US, meeting President Barack Obama at the White House.

“Trong’s said to be quite simple and clean,” a Vietnamese researcher who asked not to be identified told The Straits Times last year. “So far there has been no major scandal.”

The challenger

Nguyen Tan Dung, 66, Prime Minister

Dung has weathered talks of corruption and nepotism to serve two terms as prime minister, a post just below that of general secretary of the Communist Party.

His chances of being elected secretary general of the Party – the most powerful position in the country – at the 12th Party Congress from January 20-28 are seen as dim but not ruled out.

Dung is from the south and has proven to be a popular politician in a country where politicians do not commonly campaign amongst the population.

During the 2014 flap with China when Beijing placed an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam and there were clashes between Vietnamese and Chinese vessels in the area, Dung made the most forceful statements about China.

He has also been a leading advocate of greater engagement with the west and diversification of exports, and is credited with having led Vietnam to sign the US-initiated Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

During the pageant’s coronation night last December, Harvey mixed up the results of the pageant after he initially announced Miss Colombia Ariadna Gutierrez as the winner.

He later apologized and declared Wurtzbach as the rightful winner.

During the interview on the “Steve Harvey Show,” Wurtzbach recalled keeping a “safe distance” from Gutierrez because she was concerned with how the latter was feeling.

“I tried to keep a safe distance from her so as not to disrespect her. I didn’t want her to feel bad. I was being sensitive to her feelings. So when I was standing there, I was very happy, I was excited. But I was also thinking about her; I could not help but think about how tough this must be for her,” Wurtzbach said.

Harvey apologized again, saying he hopes there could be healing for Wurtzbach and Gutierrez, and that he wished they “could have all gotten it right” during the night of the pageant.

The 26yearold beauty queen from Cagayan de Oro City said that while the controversy has shadowed her coronation, she hopes that she would still be able to inspire many people.

“I wish I had more time to tell people about my life back in the Philippines. It wasn’t easy,” she said.

“But I think I have the whole year to tell them about my story. And I do hope that I get to inspire people that people could throw stones at you but, I read this one quote, “a real queen knows how to make an empire with the same stones thrown at her,” so that’s what I want people to learn,” she added.

She then consoled Harvey, who admitted earlier in the show how difficult it was for him and his family to deal with the backlash following the mixup.

“Don’t beat yourself up anymore. Let’s move forward and let’s be happy,” Wurtzbach told Harvey.

The 58-year-old host responded and praised Wurtzbach, saying “Thank you for coming. I thought you were an absolute class act, absolute class act.”