The price of gold rose by Bt100 per baht weight in morning trade on Thursday, the Gold Traders Association reported.
As of 9.30am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,900 per baht weight and selling price Bt28,000, while gold ornaments cost Bt27,394.12 and Bt28,500, respectively.
At close on Wednesday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,800 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,900, while gold ornaments cost Bt27,303.16 and Bt28,400, respectively.
The spot gold price moved to US$1,906 (Bt59,148) per ounce in the morning after the price dropped by $14.20 to $1,896.20 per ounce at Wednesday’s close as the market did not expect the result of the US presidential election to be announced soon because of the nail-biting fight between the Democrats and Republicans.
The Hong Kong gold price meanwhile rose by HK$130 to $17,620 (Bt70,515) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.
By The Washington Post · Abha Bhattarai · BUSINESS, RETAIL The country’s post-election state of political limbo is causing many Americans to hit the pause button on just about every type of purchase during what retailers had hoped would be an early holiday shopping season.
That uncertainty, retail analysts say, deals yet another setback to an industry that has already dealt with its share of challenges this year. Consumer spending, which typically drives about two-thirds of the economy, suffered a huge blow early in the pandemic, though it has been ticking up in recent months. But with inconclusive results casting new doubts about the country’s political and economic future, some worry that those gains could soon be wiped away.
“Covid-19 is running rampant, there was no vaccine by Election Day and unemployment is still at grotesque recessionary levels,” said Mark Cohen, director of retail studies for Columbia Business School. “Roll that up in a ball, add in the vagaries of the election, and it all speaks to a pretty grim holiday retail season. This is not going to be a banner year for sweaters and handbags.”
Americans spent $2 billion online on Election Day – a 27% increase from a year earlier, but still about 11% less than in the preceding two days, according to Adobe Analytics, which analyzed more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites. The group said it expects online sales to dip by as much as $300 million on Wednesday while the country awaited election results.
“Consumers generally do not like uncertainty in any form and tend to pull back on spending during unpredictable times,” said Vivek Pandya, senior digital insights manager at Adobe. But, he said, he did not expect a “material impact on overall holiday sales.”
While some Americans may have stocked up on non-perishables and toilet paper in recent days, because of supply chain concerns or fears of election-related unrest, analysts say they don’t anticipate panic buying to pick up in coming weeks. Overall holiday spending is expected to be tepid this year, with Deloitte predicting sales growth between 1% and 1.5%.
“Consumer spending is on hold now while the election is being contested,” said Greg Portell, a partner in the global consumer practice at consulting firm Kearney. “There’s so much uncertainty and angst on both sides of the debate that consumers aren’t going to be prioritizing shopping in any way.”
Matthew Shay, chief executive of the National Retail Federation, on Wednesday urged Americans to “be patient and peaceful” while votes are being counted. But, he said, he doesn’t think the uncertainty of the election will translate to a long-term dip in spending.
“A temporary moment of uncertainty is not going to be consequential in terms of consumer behavior,” he said in an interview. “Consumers have demonstrated that they are resilient and have the ability to not be distracted by external factors that out of their control.”
And while some consumers and retailers reported “stress shopping” for items like winter sweaters, face creams and candles this week, analysts say many more are putting off major purchases until there is more certainty.
“If the last election is any indication, people may be anxious for a few days but then things get back to normal pretty quickly,” said Sucharita Kodali, an analyst for Forrester. “Half of the country will be thrilled with the results no matter what happens.”
On election night, Nikole Watson, 29, was perched on her couch, scrolling through her phone while voting results puttered in. When ads for warm, cozy clothing popped up on Facebook and Instagram, she couldn’t resist. She ended up buying two sweaters and two coats, in hopes that they’d give her the kind of “instant gratification” she wasn’t getting from the news. But, she says, she’s put off bigger-ticket items like furniture until she has a sense of which way the country – and the economy – are headed.
“There is so much anxiety out there, so I don’t want to make a huge purchase right now,” the 29-year-old executive assistant said. “Instead I’m gearing toward small purchases that make me feel better.”
By The Washington Post · Taylor Telford, Hannah Denham · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS
U.S. markets soared Wednesday, lifted by tech shares, as investors waited for final results in the highly charged presidential race.
Earlier in the day, President Donald Trump falsely asserted election fraud, pledged to mount a legal challenge to official state results and made a premature claim of victory. His Democratic rival, Joe Biden, maintains that he is still “on track to win this election” and called for patience, citing several key states where votes were still being counted. As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, Biden led Trump by 39 electoral votes, 253 to 214, according to The Washington Post’s tracker.
“We have seen a market rally for the past two sessions ahead of the election with the hope of ending electoral uncertainty,” Anthony Denier, chief executive of the mobile-app based brokerage Webull, said in comments emailed to The Post. “A contested election is the biggest risk facing the markets amid this election cycle.”
After whipsawing overnight and surging nearly 800 points at midday, the Dow Jones industrial average ended the session at 27,847.66, up 367.63 points, or nearly 1.3%. The S&P 500 index added 74.28 points, or 2.2%, to settle at 3,443.44. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 swelled 430.21 points, or nearly 3.9%, to end at 11,590.78.
Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington said the post-election rally mirrors what happened in 2016, when investors reckoned with an unexpected result and rallied by morning.
“Pundits were telling us to expect a blue wave, but we didn’t get it. It doesn’t look like the Senate is going to have a significant majority one way or the other, and we don’t know who the president is going to be,” Farr said. “But with all that in mind, Wall Street was able to recalculate.”
A record-breaking 101 million Americans cast ballots before Election Day as many voters sought to avoid crowded polling places because of the coronavirus pandemic. Voter turnout is on pace to be the highest in more than a century, according to Edison Research, with more than 157 million ballots cast, representing a 65.7% turnout rate among eligible voters. The flood of early and mail-in voting has reshaped how and when most ballots are counted, creating uncertainty around when results will be known.
“Chaos is the last thing people want, particularly when coronavirus is causing so much disruption to the world,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said in emailed comments to The Post. “We’re now facing the prospect of volatile markets for days or potentially weeks until the election is sorted out.”
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which had edged near its highest level since June, tumbled 13% as investors flocked to safe havens. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Jesse Cohen, a senior analyst at Investing.com, said risk appetites are waning in response to the possibility of a prolonged legal battle to settle the election outcome.
“If this were to go to the Supreme Court, then the results would take even longer,” Cohen said Wednesday in comments emailed to The Post. “That’s probably the worst-case scenario out of all the possible ones at the moment.”
Election uncertainty is merely compounding the overwhelming unknowns as the economic recovery trudges onward and the pandemic threatens to cause another wave of business and travel restrictions. The coronavirus has killed at least 233,000 Americans and sickened at least 9.45 million.
On Wednesday, ADP’s private payroll report showed that American firms added 365,000 jobs last month. Well below analyst forecasts, the figure reflects the uphill battle facing the recovery. Investors are looking toward weekly jobless claims data Thursday for a more recent snapshot.
“When the election is finally decided, we have a heck of a lot of challenges to tackle on the way to full recovery,” Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade, said in an email to The Post.
In oil markets, which are more focused on the pandemic and market fundamentals than the election, prices climbed higher after OPEC and its allies considered further production cuts. Previous cuts this year have put OPEC on track for its lowest revenue in 18 years.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, settled 3.4% higher, at $41.23 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, climbed 4%, to $39.15.
The private sector is worried that renewed lockdowns in Europe could see the Thai economy shrink by another 0.37 to 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking on Wednesday.
Committee chairman Karin Sarasin said the lockdowns could affect Thai exports by restricting foreign consumers’ activities but would not impact manufacturing.
However, the Thai economy would continue to recover in the fourth quarter provided there was no second wave of Covid-19 in Thailand and recent government stimulus measures began to take effect, he said.
The joint committee meeting found that the Thai economy in the third quarter benefited from the recovery of manufacturing overseas, while domestically businesses such as auto parts, computers and plastic pellets also bounced back.
The joint committee forecast that Thai economy this year will contract between 7 and 9 per cent, while export will shrink by 8-10 per cent.
This week the Thai National Shippers’ Council brightened its forecast for export contraction this year from 8-10 per cent to 7 per cent after seeing an improvement in global grade.
However, despite rising orders, the council is keeping a close watch for a possible second wave of Covid-19 infections in export destinations, especially the US and Europe.
Thai exports dropped 3.86 per cent year on year in September to US$19.621 billion, while exports in the first nine months of the year fell 7.33 per cent year on year to $172.996 billion.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,222.44 on Wednesday, up 1.11 points or 0.09 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt49.80 billion with an index high of 1,231.05 and a low of 1,214.49.
In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to hit 1,230 points on hopes that Joe Biden would win the US presidential election, rollout of US economic stimulus, and the rising oil price.
“However, investors should beware of market volatility and mass sell-offs in line with technical indicators,” he said.
The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were CPALL, PTT, KBANK, DELTA, IVL, SCGP, AOT, PTTEP, ADVANC and HANA.
As of 4.30pm, the price of oil rose by US$0.61 or 1.62 per cent to $38.27 per barrel, while gold dropped by $16.40 or 0.86 per cent, to $1,894 per ounce.
Other Asian indices were on the rise except for Hong Kong stock index:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 23,695.23, up 399.75 points or 1.72 per cent.
China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,277.44, up 6.37 points or 0.19 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,659.50, up 79.46 points or 0.59 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,886.14, down 53.59 points or 0.21 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,357.32, up 14.01 points or 0.60 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 12,867.90, up 131.89 points or 1.04 per cent.
Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF) is ready to penetrate Malaysia’s retail market despite not yet receiving approval from Thailand’s Trade Competition Commission for its acquisition of Tesco-Lotus’s businesses in Thailand and Malaysia.
CP already operates the 7-Eleven chain and Makro stores in Thailand, which has triggered worries of a retail monopoly.
In March, Charoen Pokphand (CP) informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand it had acquired shares in Tesco Stores in both countries.
The share purchases, which allow CP to acquire assets worth Bt338.445 billion, are subject to approval by Thailand’s TCC and Malaysia’s Domestic Trade and Consumers Affairs Ministry, respectively.
Prasit Boondoungprasert, CEO of CPF, said the company’s strategy next year will focus on expanding market channels via Tesco Lotus in Thailand and Malaysia. He expects the TCC to conclude this issue soon.
“CPF is ready to penetrate the Malaysian market … because the company does not have suppliers in Malaysia,” he said.
He added that the opening of Singapore’s market was also dependent on the TCC’s decision.
“Singapore has had to order chicken from Thailand instead of Malaysia because the Covid-19 outbreak has disrupted the transportation system,” he explained.
He said the company’s online systems to cope with the Covid-19 impact had also helped boost internet sales and reduce operating costs.
“However, the company will pay attention to producing healthy food as the Covid-19 outbreak has triggered public concern about health,” he said.
He expected CPF business turnover this year to hit Bt540 billion, up 8 per cent year on year, boosted by overseas operations.
“Most of the revenue came from our companies in China and Vietnam after the African Swine Fever outbreak helped boost the price of pork,” he said.
He added that the revenue from CP’s Vietnam operation is expected to rise further as it exports chicken to Japan with tariff privileges under the two countries’ trade deal.
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Matthew Martin, Anthony Di Paola · BUSINESS Saudi Aramco failed to generate enough cash to cover its dividend, yet left the payout unchanged at $18.75 billion for the third quarter even as profit fell 45% and debt continued to rise.
The Saudi Arabian state energy firm’s free cash flow was $12.4 billion between July and September, compared with $20.6 billion a year earlier. Gearing climbed to 21.8% from 20% in June and from minus 5% in March, when Aramco had more cash than debt.
Aramco’s dividends are a vital source of cash for the Saudi government, whose budget deficit is expected to widen to 12% of gross domestic product this year amid a coronavirus-triggered crash in crude prices and a severe economic contraction.
Yet the company, 98% owned by the government, probably won’t be able to continue paying out such high dividends unless oil prices, down 40% in 2020, rise, Moody’s Investors Service said last month. Aramco’s total payments to the kingdom, including dividends, taxes and royalties, fell 30% in the three months to the end of September to $24.6 billion.
“Aramco covered the lion’s share of its dividend this quarter, which, given the macro environment at $42 a barrel and abysmal refining margins, is quite an accomplishment,” Royal Bank of Canada analyst Biraj Borkhataria said in a research note.
Net income at the world’s biggest oil company was 44.2 billion riyals ($11.8 billion), slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations.
Aramco’s shares rose 1.3% to 34.60 riyals by 12.37 p.m. in Riyadh, paring this year’s drop to 1.8%. The stock has been bolstered by management’s pledge to pay a $75 billion dividend annually for five years after the completion of last December’s initial public offering.
That promise, combined with a $69 billion acquisition of chemicals maker Saudi Basic Industries Corp., has seen debt levels balloon even with Aramco cutting capital expenditure and laying-off hundreds of foreign workers. Net debt rose $6 billion to $83 billion by the end of the third quarter, putting the company even further from its gearing target of between 5% and 15%.
The company may have to take on more debt to fund the dividend payments given its slumping cash flow. It drew down a $10 billion loan in late July. That revolving credit facility matures in May 2021, but Aramco can extend it for another year.
Income still increased for the first time in five quarters as oil prices steadied following their battering earlier in the year as the coronavirus spread globally and demand for energy cratered.
“We saw early signs of a recovery in the third quarter due to improved economic activity, despite the headwinds facing global energy markets,” Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said. “We continue to adopt a disciplined and flexible approach to capital allocation in the face of market volatility.”
Although the results suggest the worst of the pandemic’s impact on energy demand may have passed, Aramco still faces a brittle market. Oil prices fell to a five-month low this week amid fresh travel restrictions in Europe aimed at stemming a surge in virus cases.
OPEC and allied producers — who agreed to slash crude exports in April — are weighing whether to delay an easing of those curbs to buttress crude prices.
In addition to crushing demand for fuel, the pandemic has also hit Aramco’s refining and chemicals businesses. The downstream unit swung to a $795 million loss before interest and taxes in the third quarter from an $801 million profit a year earlier.
Aramco had gross refining capacity of 6.4 million barrels a day at the end of September. It’s seeking to cement its position as one of the world’s biggest crude processors by having the capacity to turn some 8 million to 10 million barrels a day into fuels such as gasoline and diesel.
The price of gold rose by Bt100 per baht weight in morning trade on Wednesday, the Gold Traders Association reported.
As of 9.22am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,900 per baht weight and selling price Bt28,000, while gold ornaments cost Bt27,394.12 and Bt28,500, respectively.
At close on Tuesday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,800 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,900, while gold ornaments cost Bt27,303.16 and Bt28,400, respectively.
The spot gold price moved to US$1,901 (Bt59,216) per ounce in the morning after the price rose by $17.90 to $1,910.40 per ounce at close on Tuesday from a weakening dollar and mass buy ups in the precious metal before announcement of the US presidential result.
The Hong Kong gold price meanwhile rose by HK$110 to $17,630 (Bt70,844) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 7.41 points, or 0.61 per cent, to 1,228.74 in the morning session on Wednesday.
An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to hit 1,230 points before falling on hopes that former vice president Joe Biden will win the US presidential election, as well as the rollout of US economic stimulus measures after the election and the rising oil price.
“However, investors should beware of market volatility and mass sell-offs in stocks in line with technical indicators,” he said.
He recommended investors buy:
> PTTGC, IVL and Top that benefit from the rising oil price.
> TU, STGT, STA, CBG, IVL, EPG, AP, Com7, Synex, Asian, Hana, SVI and TVO, whose third-quarter performance is expected to improve.
The SET Index closed at 1,221.33 on Tuesday, up 19.17 points, or 1.59 per cent. The volume of total transactions stood at Bt45 billion, with an index high of 1,222.78 points and a low of 1,209.90.
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Claire Ballentine, Kamaron Leach · BUSINESS
U.S. stocks capped the biggest two-day rally since September, led by a surge in bank shares as Treasury yields spiked on speculation that Congress will deliver a spending bill once the election is decided. The dollar weakened and crude oil increased the most in almost a month.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.8%, bringing the two-day increase to 3.2%. Financial firms rallied 2.2%, also the most since September. Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the final polls, with some investors speculating his victory would bring a surge in federal spending. Meanwhile, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s U.S.-traded shares tumbled 8.1% after China halted the initial public offering of Ant Group Co., in which Alibaba owns about a one-third stake.
Treasurys fell and a gauge of the dollar dropped the most in more than three weeks as a risk-on mood prevailed. Oil extended gains after jumping on Monday on increasing signs OPEC+ will delay a planned easing of output cuts.
“It’s a reflection of the market’s belief there is not going to be a whole lot of uncertainty after election day,” said Matt Stucky, portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. “The worst outcome for election day is a really uncertain winner scenario where it’s going to take weeks and a lot of legal back and forth before the decision is ultimately made.”
While trades reflecting a Democratic sweep held firm, betting markets aren’t convinced. One gauge slipped to just over 50% odds of the so-called Blue Wave — that Democrats oust President Trump and take Congressional majorities. Traders hedged prospects of post-vote volatility, driving a measure of expected swings in China’s yuan to its highest level in more than nine years.
“The ghost of 2016, from both polling and market expectations, looms large,” Michael Purves, chief executive officer of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, wrote in a note.
Elsewhere, the benchmark credit derivatives index measuring the perceived risk of U.S. high-yield companies gained by the most in almost two months, implying lower probability of default.
Markets are reflecting more optimism following weeks of speculation that a contested election outcome may produce no clear winner for some time and roil markets. Polls continue to indicate that Biden is ahead, though the race looks tight in some battleground states, some of which are seeing virus cases soar.
“The market’s upward bias, and underlying leadership of energy, industrials, and materials sectors, imply a Blue wave that incorporates the potential for the passage of stimulus and infrastructure spending bills,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
In Europe, mining shares climbed, helped by the slumping dollar. Banks rallied after BNP Paribas SA joined its European peers in posting lower-than-expected bad-loan provisions from the pandemic.
These are some of the main moves in financial markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 Index jumped 1.8% to 3,369.16 as of 4:05 p.m. EST, the highest in a week on the largest surge in more than four weeks.
The Dow Jones industrial average surged 2.1% to 27,480.03, the highest in more than a week on the biggest jump in 16 weeks.
The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.9% to 11,160.57, the largest climb in more than three weeks.
The MSCI All-Country World Index surged 1.8% to 567.82, the highest in a week on the biggest jump in almost four months.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.5% to 1,166.86, hitting the lowest in a week with the first retreat in a week and the largest dip in more than three weeks.
The euro climbed 0.6% to $1.1713, the first advance in more than a week and the biggest increase in five weeks.
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.2% to 104.55 per dollar, the largest gain in a week.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasurys climbed four basis points to 0.89%, the highest in five months.
The yield on 30-year Treasurys increased five basis points to 1.66%, the highest in more than a week.
Germany’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to -0.62%, the highest in a week on the biggest rise in more than a week.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.8% to $37.83 a barrel, the highest in a week.
Gold strengthened 0.6% to $1,907.13 an ounce, the highest in a week.
