The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,285.88 on Monday, up 25.80 points or 2.05 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt77.89 billion with an index high of 1,293.90 and a low of 1,277.52.
In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to rise to between 1,270 and 1,275 in response to former vice president Joe Biden winning the US presidential election, providing a boost to global trade and rollout of economic stimulus measures.
“However, surging global Covid-19 cases and market volatility due to SET-listed companies’ third-quarter business turnover announcements will pressure the index,” he said.
The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were TASCO, PTT, KBANK, CPALL, IVL, GULF, SCC, ADVANC, AOT and BAM.
As of 4.30pm, the price of oil rose by US$1.01 or 2.72 per cent to $38.15 per barrel, while gold rose by $9.70 or 0.50 per cent, to $1,961.40 per ounce.
Other Asian indices were on the rise:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 24,839.84, up 514.61 points or 2.12 per cent.
China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,373.73, up 61.57 points or 1.86 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 14,141.15, up 302.73 points or 2.19 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 26,016.17, up 303.20 points or 1.18 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,447.20, up 30.70 points or 1.27 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 13,127.47, up 153.94 points or 1.19 per cent.
Experts forecast the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index will rise sharply next year following former vice president Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election.
Amonthep Chawla, head of research at CIMB Thai Bank, said Thailand would benefit from rising demand for imports in the US – especially electronic and automotive parts, rubber and food – as Biden’s policies will help boost Americans’ income.
“Hence, Thailand needs to consider joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership [CPTPP] as soon as possible, otherwise the country would lose benefits from China’s production relocation,” he said.
However, he said the baht would strengthen further from its current range of 30.50-30.60 against the dollar because the US debt is likely to grow in the long term.
Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, executive vice president at Asia Plus Securities, said the global economy including Thailand would be buoyed by Biden’s lenient trade measures, while foreign funds are likely to flow into Asian stock and bond markets after the Biden administration raises corporate taxes, meaning US stocks will be less attractive among investors.
“If Thailand’s political tensions don’t escalate, we expect the SET to rise to around 1,300 points by the end of this year, before hitting 1,450 points next year if a Covid-19 vaccine is developed the end of this year,” he said.
He added that shares in renewable energy-focused generators, such as GULF, GPSC, EA and BGRIM, would gain a boost from the US Democrats’ clean energy policy.
“Meanwhile, we still recommend that investors buy six large stocks – SCC, DELTA, CPF, HMPRO, STGT and BAM– whose profits are likely to increase next year,” he added.
Wikij Tirawannarat, director of individual customer research at Bualuang Securities, predicts logjams in US policymaking since Republicans still control the Senate, but is bullish on the prospects for Thai stocks.
“We expect the SET to hit 1,400 points next year as Thai political unrest eases, listed companies’ profits rise 50 per cent, and foreign funds flow into Asian and emerging markets,” he said. He forecast the SET would rise to around 1,340 points by the end of this year as the US election result is still unclear.
Thidasiri Srisamith, chief investment officer at Kasikorn Asset Management, said the SET had already priced-in the Biden presidency with a 5 per cent rise.
“However, we expect the index to hit 1,500 points by the end of next year on hopes of a Covid-19 vaccine. If the Covid-19 situation resolves, Thailand will be able to welcome more tourists,” she said, adding that the country’s revenue from tourism normally accounts for 13 per cent of its GDP.
She recommended that investors buy stocks not vulnerable to impact from the economic slowdown and with high fundamentals – such as utility, retail and finance stocks.
Nattapong Hirunyasiri, chief executive of MTS Gold Group, expects the gold price to fluctuate between US$1,920 and $1,960 per ounce and between Bt27,800 and Bt29,000 per baht weight this year.
“However, the gold price will hit $2,000 per ounce if it is still rising at $1,940 per ounce,” he forecast.
Tada Phutthitada, president of The Thai Bond Market Association, said regardless of who is the US president, the Thai bond market will gain positive sentiment from the US policy to inject funds into Asian markets, adding that foreign funds mostly flow into bonds issued by governments and central banks.
“In the last two days, foreign investors have made net buys of up to Bt10 billion in bonds … so this is a chance for the government to issue more bonds to raise more funds,” he said.
Mortgage rejections jump as bankers worry about high household debt eroding ability to repay
Nov 09. 2020
By The Nation
Amid the continuing Covid-19 pandemic, the central bank’s business trend report for the third and fourth quarters found the property sector to be contracting.
The Bank of Thailand (BOT) revealed that the rejection rate of mortgage loans had increased sharply.
Prices in the medium- and high-end market look alright due to market demand for homeownership. However, the lower-price market segment — both condominium residential units and low-rise homes — need to be closely monitored, according to the BOT report.
The rejection rate in the central region of the country rose 30 per cent while in the North it jumped between 40 to 50 per cent, even though borrowers had pre-approved loans, according to the BOT report.
In the South, bankers’ loan to value (LTV) is unusually low or loan applications are being entirely rejected.
Payong Srivanich, president of Krungthai Bank, said the bank has to take into account the general economic situation and bank capital.
The rising household debt is also making banks very cautious in lending because banks do not want borrowers to have excessive debt, he said.
“We have committed to responsible lending, taking into account weaker economic health, our capital and rising household debt,” he said.
Nathapol Luepromchai, executive vice president responsible for the mortgage loan division at Krungsri Bank, said borrowers faced a decline in income and that hurt their ability to repay debt.
For example, many borrowers have seen their incomes decline by 30 to 40 per cent, he pointed out.
He predicted new mortgage lending by his bank would contract by double digits this year due to the impact of the economic slowdown and the lingering Covid-19 pandemic. He, however, believed that outstanding property loans would grow as existing mortgage borrowers do not refinance their mortgage debts. The mortgage portfolio of his bank is currently worth Bt280 billion, up from Bt260 billion last year, he added.
Naris Sathapholdecha, executive director at TMB Analytics Centre, projected TMB’s new mortgage lending is expected to contract by 10 to 12 per cent this year from the current 8 per cent contraction. Outstanding mortgage loans are expected to fall by 0.5 per cent to Bt230 billion this year, compared with a 3 per cent rise in the third quarter. Bad debt is expected to rise as borrowers have more debt and lower income.
Household debt in the first quarter this year stood at 80.2 per cent of GDP and shot up to 83.8 per cent in the second quarter, a record high, according to BOT.
Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre projected that household debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 88 per cent by the end of this year and shoot up to 90 per cent in the first quarter next year.
The rising household debt is mainly blamed on the Covid-19-induced economic crisis, mostly due to people losing their jobs or seeing their incomes reduced.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 18.92 points, or 1.50 per cent, to 1,279 in the morning session on Monday.
An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to rise to between 1,270 and 1,275 in response to former vice president Joe Biden winning the US presidential election, which will be a positive sentiment for global trade and the rollout of economic stimulus measures.
“However, surging global Covid-19 cases and market volatility due to listed companies’ third-quarter business turnover announcements would pressure the index,” he said.
He recommended that investors buy:
▪︎ IVL and PTTGC that benefit from improving global trade.
▪︎ STGT, STA, CBG, IVL, EPG, AP, COM7, SYNEX, ASIAN, HANA, SVI and TVO, whose third-quarter performances are expected to improve.
The SET Index closed at 1,260.08 on Friday, down 4.24 points, or 0.34 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt73.52 billion with an index high of 1,270.22 and a low of 1,251.08.
The price of gold rose by Bt50 per baht weight in morning trade on Monday, the Gold Traders Association reported.
As of 9.25am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt28,200 per baht weight and selling price Bt28,300 while gold ornaments were priced at Bt27,697.32 and Bt28,800, respectively.
At close on Saturday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt28,150 per baht weight and selling price Bt28,250, while gold ornaments were Bt27,636.68 and Bt28,750, respectively.
Spot gold price moved to US$1,955 (Bt59,689) per ounce in the morning after the price rose by US$4.9 to $1,951.7 per ounce at close on Friday due to the weakening dollar and uncertainty over the US presidential election.
Hong Kong gold price rose by HK$50 to $18,060 (Bt71,115) per tael on Monday morning, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.
State transport agencies seek Bt600 billion for 2022
EconNov 09. 2020Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob
By The Nation
State transport agencies have asked the Transport Ministry for more than Bt600 billion for the 2022 fiscal year.
Meanwhile, Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob said he has instructed the agencies to prioritise their projects under this budget and focus on those that have passed the environmental impact assessment.
The Highways Department has reportedly asked for Bt360 billion, the largest share, of which Bt80 billion will be spent on setting rubber barriers on roads.
Saksayam has also instructed the agencies to complete projects under the 2021 budget by next August, one month ahead of the original schedule, as part of an effort to accelerate budget spending to revive the subdued economy.
The minister said state transport agencies have already disbursed 90 per cent of the 2020 fiscal year budget, with 33 contracts still waiting to be executed.
The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) will hold public hearings with focus groups to review the base factor, which is one of two factors it uses to calculate power bills, said commission secretary-general Khomgrich Tantravanich.
The new base factor rate is expected to take effect in 2022.
He added that it was too early to tell if power bills would fall or rise after the revision, which was triggered by a change in power-generation technology.
The ERC revises the base factor every three to five years and the fuel tariff (Ft) rate every four months. The base factor is based on the capital expenditure, cost of plant construction, cost of transmission line construction, power distribution and operating costs of the state electricity agencies.
Public outrage over approval for CP Group’s acquisition of Tesco Lotus
EconNov 09. 2020Nipon Poapongsakorn, distinguished fellow at the Thailand Development Research Institute
By The Nation
Academics and netizens have expressed their frustration after the Office of Trade Competition Commission (OTCC) approved conglomerate Charoen Pokphand’s acquisition of retail giant Tesco Lotus.
The commission voted 4:3 in favour of the US$10-billion takeover deal.
The OTCC on Friday gave the green light to CP Group’s deal to buy Tesco Stores (Thailand).
“The decision fails to build trust among consumers and other parties, as it can potentially damage trade competition,” Nipon Poapongsakorn, distinguished fellow at the Thailand Development Research Institute, told the Nation on Sunday.
“It is not in line with the spirit of the competition law, which aims to prevent companies having market dominance to unfairly enjoy an advantage over other competitors,” said Nipon, a former member of the competition committee when it was under the supervision of the Commerce Ministry.
It reminded him of the past two disputed cases when a giant alcoholic beverage company forced small shops to buy its beer by bundling it with liquor products, and the former cable network operator, UBC Cable TV, which charged excessively high fees from subscribers, Nipon said.
The two cases damaged the reputation of the competition committee, leading to legal amendments that paved the way for creating the current independent trade competition commission.
“In the controversial CP case, the majority of the commissioners failed to take into consideration the possible risky behaviour of the powerful companies in the future,” Nipon lamented.
He pointed out that the commissioners apparently failed to carefully look at the big picture where CP, via the 7-Eleven convenience store chain, and its targeted acquisition of Tesco Lotus, can dominate in all three market segments: wholesale, discount, and convenience stores.
CP Group already operates 7-Eleven convenience stores and the Siam Makro chain, a wholesale trading business.
In some provinces, their combined market share would be between 80 to 90 per cent, he said.
He also does not agree with the seven conditions set by the commission. These are minor issues, he said.
“The important condition they should have set is prohibited the group from opening new stores in provincial areas,” he noted.
He urged the commission to release the full details of their decision and the individual opinions both of those who voted for and against the acquisition.
It is unusual for the commission to not release much details when the OTCC issued a press release on Friday, he noted.
Sakon Varunyuwatana, chairperson of the commission, who voted against the decision said that the individual opinion of the minority commissioners would be released soon.
Suppliers, or small and medium-sized enterprises are adversely affected by the decision and they could lodge a complaint in the Administrative Court, he said about the next legal procedure.
They, however, must, convince the court on how it would damage their businesses, he added.
Netizens expressing their opposition via social media have also cited their concerns about the potential of rising prices of goods and how the bargaining power of suppliers and small businesses, in particular, could be affected.
Voters choose Biden to rebuild U.S. economy battered by pandemic
EconNov 08. 2020People in Philadelphia listen as Joe Biden speaks on Election Day. MUST CREDIT: Washington Post photo by Demetrius Freeman
By The Washington Post · David J. Lynch · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, POLITICS, PERSONAL-FINANCE, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS
President-elect Joe Biden overcame President Donald Trump’s attempt to ride a record economic rebound to reelection, as voters showed more concern for the troubled economy’s future than appreciation for its pre-coronavirus past.
Biden triumphed in a protracted contest despite recent signs of economic improvement and the president’s insistence that he could “make America great again” if voters gave him the chance. The Democrat chided Trump for not agreeing with House Democrats on a new economic relief deal, thus leaving the economy vulnerable to a winter swoon.
On Saturday, the former vice president for the first time publicly claimed victory in a televised speech and called for the country to come together.”The people of this nation have spoken. They have delivered us a clear victory,” Biden said, adding that he would “rebuild the backbone of this nation, the middle class.
After a historic second-quarter plunge as the pandemic froze most commercial activity, output rose by a record 7.4% in the three months that ended Sept. 30.
Today’s 6.9% jobless rate also is much lower than the double-digit figure many Wall Street economists predicted earlier this year when the recession began. And on Monday, a key gauge of manufacturing strength rose to its highest mark in more than two years.
“Despite signs of an improving economy, the biggest issue was Donald Trump’s handling of covid-19,” said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments. “The economy is important, but covid-19 is more important.”
Biden’s proposals would touch most corners of the U.S. economy. He plans to incentivize companies to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, to raise taxes on corporations and on individuals making more than $400,000 a year, and to fund job-creating infrastructure investments, including in universal broadband. Biden also favors another round of emergency assistance to American households and businesses battered by the pandemic.
Implementing his most ambitious proposals – such as a public option for health insurance – could prove difficult if Republicans retain control of the Senate following two January runoff elections in Georgia.
During the campaign, Trump sought to remind voters of the full-employment prosperity that he had delivered before the pandemic. The stock market by mid-August had risen 50% from its March lows, completing the fastest rebound from a bear market in U.S. history.
The president also presided over a nearly $3 trillion federal response to the economic collapse, which helped millions of suddenly jobless workers and provided businesses with forgivable loans to support them until the emergency passed.
But as the year wore on – and coronavirus cases surged across much of the country – voters concluded there would be no lasting recovery until the pandemic was contained. With the president failing to mount an effective strategy – and publicly disparaging his top health officials – his polling advantage on economic issues collapsed.
In March, voters said they trusted Trump over Biden to handle the economy by a margin of 50% to 42%, according to an ABC News-Washington Post poll. But in the same survey last month, the two candidates were essentially tied on that score.
“While the economic recovery has been swift, it’s been incomplete, with millions still unemployed and pessimistic about the outlook,” said Tony Fratto, who was deputy press secretary for President George W. Bush. “But more importantly, the president’s mishandling of the pandemic overwhelmed any benefit from the economic rebound.”
The economy’s initial bounceback also is losing steam. On Friday, the Labor Department said the number of new jobs fell for the fourth straight month. More than 21 million Americans are receiving some form of unemployment benefits.
The economy’s continued healing is threatened by the failure of the administration and Congress to agree on additional financial support after months of fruitless negotiations.
Amid signs of softer demand, major employers recently announced fresh layoffs. ExxonMobil is cutting 15,000 jobs and Boeing is trimming its payroll by 7,000 after letting tens of thousands of workers go earlier this year.
Recent coronavirus outbreaks in rural states that had largely escaped the pandemic’s first wave, coupled with a resurgence of cases elsewhere, left much of the country braced for a difficult winter.
“No incumbent has kept the White House in a year where there was a recession and 10%-plus stock-market decline since 1952. It seems that President Trump’s reelection fell prey to a pandemic, muddled messaging and complex global challenges,” said Michael Farr, chief executive officer of Farr, Miller & Washington, an investment firm.
As the campaign neared its end, the president reprised the language of his 2016 win by attacking Biden as “a globalist” who had helped send American jobs offshore.
“He shuttered your steel mills, annihilated your coal jobs, and supported every disastrous trade deal for half a century,” the president tweeted on Monday, citing the North American Free Trade deal and China’s entry into the World Trade Organization.
But the president’s multi-front trade war also carried costs: It enveloped much of the manufacturing sector in a fog of uncertainty, complicating investment decisions and defeating his hopes of a lasting increase in blue-collar employment.
As Trump confronts the prospect of leaving office, 8.6% of the nation’s labor force is engaged in manufacturing, almost identical to the 8.5% in January 2017. And nearly 4 million fewer Americans are working today than when he took office.
“Trade war and tariffs reversed much of Trump’s first two years in economic growth,” David Kotok, chief investment officer for Cumberland Advisors, wrote in an email.
Trump’s trade war also may have hurt him in the politically crucial industrial Midwest. States that rely on imported parts from China, such as Michigan, were especially hit hard by the tariffs on Chinese products that the president imposed in 2018, according to a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Trump inherited an economy that had been steadily growing for more than seven years. The unemployment rate dropped from 10% in October 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis to 4.7% at the end of 2016.
The president secured congressional approval of a $1.7 trillion tax cut and slashed regulations to stimulate growth. That temporarily spurred the economy, driving the jobless rate to a half-century low of 3.5% in February.
But the economy’s long-term performance was little changed even before the pandemic hit. The United States grew at an average annual rate of 2.5% during Trump’s first three years, almost identical to the 2.4% pace during President Barack Obama’s final 36 months.
“The economy was in pretty good shape when Trump came into office and continued along its prior path – right up until the pandemic,” Barry Ritholtz, a New York investment manager, wrote in an email. “The Trump Economy is hard to distinguish from the Obama Economy.”
The Comptroller-General’s Department is reported to be working on new rules for state authorities to continue doing financial transactions with Krungthai Bank (KTB) and without breaching related rules despite the bank losing its state enterprise status, according to State Enterprise Policy Office director-general Prapas Kong-Ied.
He told Krungthep Turakij newspaper that existing state rules require state agencies to deposit or engage in financial transactions only with state-owned banks.
According to KTB’sfilingto the Stock Exchange of Thailand on November 6, the Financial Institutions Development Fund informed KTB on November 3 that the Council of State is of the opinion that KTB is neither a private nor a public company classified as “State Enterprise” under subsection (2) and (3) of Section 4 of the Budget Procedures Act, 2018.
The fund has consulted the Council of State about the state enterprise status of its own and that of KTB.
KTB added that the alteration of the bank’s status according to the legal opinion has a material effect on the bank’s business operations and its compliance with the laws and regulations related to state enterprises. As a result, the bank is considering the impacts in various areas.
Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob 
Nipon Poapongsakorn, distinguished fellow at the Thailand Development Research Institute 
People in Philadelphia listen as Joe Biden speaks on Election Day. MUST CREDIT: Washington Post photo by Demetrius Freeman 
