A data point from the Federal Reserve, highlighted recently in a special report on housing by the Economist, underscores the differences between millennials’ financial trajectory and those of earlier generations: In 1990, baby boomers, whose median age was 35, owned nearly one-third of American real estate by value.

In 2019, the millennial generation, with a median age of 31, owned just 4 percent.

Millennials, many of whom are entering their prime home-buying years, are likely to make up some of that gap by the time they see 35. But they’re not likely to reach 30 percent of the housing market – or even the 20 percent attained by the smaller Generation X at the same point in their lives.

Because homeownership is the chief builder of wealth for middle class families, if this trend continues “we’re looking at a generation that will have lower lifetime wealth,” said Jenny Schuetz, a housing policy expert at the Brookings Institution. “That’s bad news for the economy overall, not just millennials,” she added.

The challenge facing would-be millennial home buyers is two-pronged. In many of America’s most desirable cities, the median price of a home is well beyond the reach of a typical salary. For the past several decades, developers in major metro areas like New York City have built a glut of luxury condos while ignoring the needs of the middle class. Strict land use and zoning regulations, as well as opposition to new development by many existing homeowners, have exacerbated the problem.

Millennials’ massive debt burdens also make it difficult to them to save for a down payment at any housing price. For households headed by someone younger than 35, median debt ballooned from $21,000 in 1989 to $39,000 in 2016. During that same time period, the percentage of under-35 households with student loan debt more than doubled, from 17 percent to 45 percent, and their median debt more than tripled, from $5,600 to $18,500.

These factors are propelling us toward an inflection point. As baby boomers slowly age out of homeownership, a projected $13.5 trillion in housing inventory will come on the market in the coming years. But millennials and younger generations might not be able to afford them.

“At some point, boomers will want/need to sell their houses, and it’s not clear that millennials will be able to pay what boomers think their homes are worth,” Schuetz said.

On the other hand, some of those boomers will leave their estates to their children. “Millennials whose parents are sitting on lots of housing wealth will have an easier time paying for college or coming up with a down payment – even if they don’t inherit for a while, they have a family safety net,” Schuetz said. So it’s likely that millennials will rapidly bridge some of the housing gap visible in the chart above.

One mystery remains, however: As things stand, the share of housing wealth accumulated by American millennials is falling – in 2016 it reached a high of 7.5 percent and has been declining steadily since. Conversely, boomers and members of the silent generation have seen their collective share of the American housing market rise about 5 percentage points since 2016.

Schuetz says the reason for that drop isn’t immediately clear. It could be, for instance, that real estate currently owned by older generations is appreciating more rapidly in value than that owned by millennials.

Regardless, the downward trend suggests that the current pressures facing would-be millennial home buyers aren’t easing anytime soon.

Global growth is expected to hit 3.3 percent this year, the IMF predicted. That is up from 2.9 percent last year, which was the worst year for the world economy since the Great Recession.

The more upbeat forecast for 2020 is largely due to President Donald Trump’s trade war easing with China and the stimulus from 49 central banks, including the Federal Reserve, that lowered interest rates in recent months. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called the initial U.S.-China trade deal a “welcoming sign.”

But here in Davos, as top business and political leaders gather in this ski chalet town in the Swiss Alps, uncertainty remains high – about Trump launching a trade war with Europe, about military flare-ups in the Middle East, about central banks running out of medicine to revive the economy, about inequality and about record levels of corporate debt.

“The reality is global growth remains sluggish,” Georgieva said Monday. “We are adjusting to live with the new normal of higher uncertainty.”

Georgieva warned that the record or near-record levels of wealth inequality in the United States, United Kingdom and many other parts of the world, combined with the rapid advancement of technology, feels a lot like the 1920s, which ultimately led to financial disaster.

“The beginning of this decade (has been) eerily reminiscent of the 1920s – high inequality, rapid spread of technology and huge risks and rewards in finance,” Georgieva said. “For the analogy to stop right there and go no further, acting together in a coordinated manner is absolutely critical.”

The IMF is urging countries to use this time now, while unemployment is low and growth is decent, to address bigger problems in the economy. While the short-term economic outlook is positive, there are deep structural trends in the economy that are worrying for the longer term.

The U.S. economy will grow at 2 percent, down modestly from 2.3 percent last year, the IMF predicted. China is expected to grow at 6 percent, down from 6.1 percent last year. Growth is expected to pick up in Europe, Brazil, Mexico and some other emerging markets.

“We’re probably at a low right now. We should start to see growth accelerate as the year goes on,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

American consumers continue to be the backbone of the U.S. economy. Business investment dried up last year as executives sat on their cash to see what would happen with the trade war. There is hope that there might be a modest uptick in business investment.

“I do believe we will see an uptick in investment now,” said Kelly Grier, U.S. chair of EY, the consulting firm formerly known and Ernst & Young. In discussions with business leaders in recent days, Grier said reaction has been “quite positive” on the trade deals and the perception is this is a “period of relative calm” now for trade.

More business spending and a rebound in global growth should help boost manufacturing, which was in a mild recession last year in the United States and other countries.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin recently predicted a surge in growth following the signing of the partial China trade deal and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Most independent economists say while finalizing the deals is a small positive for the economy, they don’t expect a big bump from that alone.

After 2020, there are concerns about where the U.S. and global economies are headed. The extremely low interest rates that have been in place for over a decade have side effects. They push investors into riskier investments that could backfire.

“The Fed is pumping liquidity into the system. We had a period like this back in 1998 and 1999 that inflated the internet bubble,” said Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments and a Davos attendee. “The fact the Fed doesn’t seem to be aware they are creating bubbles in risky assets is really disconcerting.”

The world is awash in debt again. Leading into the 2008 financial crisis, housing and consumer debt was at record levels, causing a bubble that ultimately burst. Today, there is around $10 trillion in corporate debt, a level never seen before. No one knows how long this can be sustained or what would happen if interest rates went up again. Minerd also pointed to the surge in commercial real estate as a red flag.

The United States is enjoying the longest expansion in its history, lasting 11 years. While recession risks have largely faded for 2020, there’s heightened attention on every sign of a potential slowdown.

“There is a sense that even though risks have receded at the moment, that this is a very long, old bull market for equities and a very long, old economic expansion,” said Rich Nuzum, president of Mercer’s wealth business, which works with large investors around the world.

The projection is based on the assumption that the 2020 economy will expand between 2.8 per cent and 3 per cent while the Dubai crude oil price will be in the range of US$65-70 (Bt1,972-Bt2,125) per barrel, director-general Nantika Thangsuphanich said on Monday (January 20).

Fuel demand in the first quarter, excluding NGV, is expected to be 132.5 million litres daily, she added.

However, LPG demand this year is projected to fall 1.9 per cent to 17.5 million kilogrammes per day.

Meanwhile, diesel demand is expected to be 71.6 million litres daily, up 6.3 per cent from the 67.3 million litres per day last year.

The demand for B10 diesel is projected to be 22.5 million litres daily in the first quarter this year before rising to 57 million litres per day in December.

The number of petrol stations selling B10 is expected to increase to around 3,000 at the end of this month, up from 800 last year, and is likely to expand to 4,000 stations next month. All stations will sell B10 at the end of March.

Benzene-based fuel consumption is projected to expand 3.7 per cent this year to 33.4 million litres per day.

The department estimated that the consumption of gasohol 95 will increase 1.9 per cent this year to 14.2 million litres per day, while that of gasohol 91 will expand 4.2 per cent to 10 million litres per day.

The demand for gasohol E20 is forecast to grow 3.6 per cent to 6.8 million litres per day, while that for gasohol E85 will increase 3.1 per cent to 1.3 million litres daily.

Kobsak Pootrakool, deputy secretary-general to the prime minister for political affairs, said Somkid urged the specialised financial institutions to promptly ease loan interest burden for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Somkid also instructed the Finance Ministry to accelerate refund of VAT and personal income tax to SMEs to help boost their liquidity.

The meeting discussed guidelines on ensuring the baht’s stability and movement in alignment with other currencies in the region.

Meanwhile, the Office of Insurance Commission was asked to consider allowing insurance companies to invest overseas as a means to drive outflow of the Thai currency in a bid to stem the strengthening baht.

The meeting also asked the Bank of Thailand to consider investing its international reserve on higher return assets.

The BOT today (January 20) announced new rules on loan to value ratio (LTV), under which, in addition to first-time homebuyers being able to apply for a loan equivalent to 100 per cent of the property’s value, banks are allowed to offer 10 per cent more for expenses on furniture and interior decor.

Those buying a second home are required to place a 10 per cent down payment if they have serviced the first home loan for two years or more. Previously, they needed to service debt under the first mortgage contract for at least three years. However, a 20-per cent down payment is required if they have serviced the first contract for less than two years.These apply to properties valued at less than Bt10 million.

For homes worth more than Bt10 million each, buyers need to settle a 10 per cent down payment for the first contract, down from 20 per cent. This measure aims to serve those seeking a  different lifestyle.

The central bank has also relaxed mortgage loan reserves for banks to reduce their financial cost and boost their liquidity.

The SET Index rose early in the week, supported by preparations for the signing of the US-China phase one trade deal and the approval of Thailand’s budget bill for the fiscal year 2020 by the House of Representatives.

The SET dropped shortly around midweek due to sell-offs by institutional and foreign investors before surging again after the US and China officially signed the phase one trade deal.

The purchase of large-cap stocks, especially in the banking sector, before the release of fourth-quarter 2019 earnings results supported the market, as well.

This week, KSecurities expects the SET to have support at 1,590 and 1,580 points, but resistance at 1,610 and 1,620 points, respectively. Key matters to watch include fourth-quarter 2019 corporate earnings results (especially the banking sector), the deliberation of Thailand’s budget bill for fiscal 2020 by the Senate, Thailand’s December exports, US-China trade issues, plus Brexit issues.

Key US indicators include December Existing Home Sales and January purchase managers index (PMI) Composite (Flash) indices. Other international factors that warrant close monitoring include outcomes of the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank meetings, Japan’s and the euro-zone’s January (PMI) Composite (Flash) indices, plus Japan’s December consumer price index.

Meanwhile, the US dollar gained on better-than-expected US retail sales in December and weekly jobless claims data. The baht was also weighed down by net foreign stock-selling orders. However, regional currencies rose along with the yuan after the US removed China from the list of currency manipulators and the first phase of the US-China trade deal was officially signed during the week.

On Friday (January 17), the baht closed at Bt30.37 to the US dollar, after having briefly hit a three-month low of 30.53/USD, versus Bt30.24/USD reported for Friday (January 10).

During the week of January 20-24, Kasikornbank expects the baht to move within a range of Bt30.20-Bt30.60/USD. A key domestic factor to be monitored closely is Thai export data for December.

Meanwhile, the US economic data to be released during the week include December Existing Home Sales, and November House Price Index. Market participants will also await the outcomes of the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank meetings, signs of the next phase of the US-China trade negotiations, as well as preliminary composite purchase managers index data for January of the US, the euro-zone, and Japan.

There’s a desire for change among global elites – but not nearly as far as Sanders and Warren want to go.

The agenda at this year’s World Economic Forum is dominated by discussions of how to address climate change and inequality. Leaders of large corporations are eager to show that they are doing something about the world’s biggest problems and do not need the sweeping policy changes that Sanders and Warren are proposing.

“Businesses are really concerned about the possibility of a far-left administration coming to power that would impose very different ways of operating,” said Colin Mayer, a professor of management studies at Oxford University and a Davos attendee.

Few business leaders here want to openly declare which candidate they support in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, but there is a widespread belief that populism and climate activism aren’t going away, regardless of who wins the presidency.

“Young people have veered sharply leftward,” Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, wrote in a recent note to clients summarizing the sentiment shift.

Other than President Donald Trump, the attendee creating the most buzz at this year’s World Economic Forum is 17-year-old Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg. Last year, Thunberg traveled to Davos (by train) to tell world leaders that climate change was their fault. Her message has been echoed around the world in the past year by teenagers skipping school to march in support of stronger action to address climate change. Those students are asking their parents for change.

“CEOs have kids and grandkids. I’ve heard a lot of stories from executives who were sitting down at the table for Christmas dinner and their nephew asked them, ‘What are you doing about climate change?'” said Rachel Kyte, dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University and a former World Bank special envoy for climate change.

Chief executives appear to be listening to these young people, many of whom also support progressive politicians.

Larry Fink, head of the world’s largest money manager, penned a widely read letter this month urging his fellow business leaders to view climate change as a financial risk. He said his company would factor climate risk into its decisions about which businesses to invest in, and he specifically cited the September climate protests led by young people as evidence that this issue isn’t going away.

“Awareness is rapidly changing, and I believe we are on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance,” wrote Fink, the chairman of BlackRock and a Davos attendee.

There’s a sense among business leaders that climate change is now undeniable. Last year capped the world’s hottest decade in recorded history, and extreme events such as the devastating Australian wildfires are becoming more routine. There’s even increasing turbulence on flights from climate change that the many private jets that land in Davos can’t avoid.

For the first time, “climate action failure” topped the list of concerns among global leaders in the annual World Economic Forum risk survey of more than 1,000 key business and political figures. Environmental issues beat out cyberattacks, disease, inequality and geopolitics.

At Davos, the buzzword this year is “stakeholder capitalism,” the idea that companies have a responsibility to the environment and society to do more than maximize profits. There has long been criticism that global elites come to Davos with set of talking points but do not actually change their practices.

But Kyte says she is cautiously optimistic, at least on climate action. Even big energy, cement and shipping companies are racing to show they are cleaner than their “dirty” peers, she said. They know new regulations are likely to target them, and they know that investors like BlackRock won’t invest in them if they don’t evolve.

“The question is no longer whether to do something, but what exactly to do and in what way,” said Rich Nuzum, president of Mercer’s wealth business, which works with many of the world’s largest investors.

Business leaders also increasingly recognize that it’s inevitable there will be some sort of price on carbon one day, probably in the form of a carbon tax. Many are trying to prepare for that reality now and help shape the policies.

In some ways, inequality is a tougher subject for many at Davos to discuss. More than 100 billionaires are on the official attendee list for the World Economic Forum. When asked last year about how to address inequality, nearly everyone said the answer was “upskilling,” a reference to providing more education and training to people who have been left behind. But few here want to talk about paying more in taxes to fund these programs.

As candidates like Sanders and Warren keep the spotlight on billionaires and protesters take to the streets in Switzerland holding signs that say “Eat the Rich,” there’s an awareness that giving to foundations and charities is no longer enough. But few here are committing to concrete solutions.

“The economic pie is bigger than it’s ever been before in history, which means we could make everyone better off, but we’ve chosen as a society to leave a lot of people behind,” said Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy and a Davos attendee. “That’s not just inexcusable morally but is also really bad tactically.”

I’m watching the 39-year-old trying to jam the contents of a storage unit into her new one bedroom, and it doesn’t appear to be going well. Latta’s kitchen table is teeming with CVS receipts, unused thank-you notes, catalogs, utility bills and to-do lists. U-Haul boxes are stacked halfway to the ceiling. The counters are overflowing with tea cups, mixing bowls and water bottles.

But all is not as it seems. Latta is in the midst of her second of three, five-hour sessions with tidying consultant Kristyn Ivey. One of the first steps Ivey demands of her clients is to bare all. That means all the stuff-even old underwear-gets laid out in full sight, and then she gets to work. The former chemical engineer, who charges about $100 an hour, promises to clean up people’s homes-and much more.

“This is about confronting yourself and learning about the things that you keep around you,” Ivey said. “This is more than an organization strategy.”

Ivey is a disciple of Marie Kondo. For the uninitiated, Kondo, also known as KonMari, is the tidying guru and best-selling author who debuted a hit Netflix show a year ago that catapulted her from cult following into the mainstream. Kondo has said she became obsessed with order as a kid-reportedly organizing bookshelves during recess-and after one freak-out over what to throw away had a breakthrough: What she really should be doing is keeping the things that make her happy.

That evolved into Kondo’s “spark joy” gospel that’s now being spread by nearly 400 certified consultants like Ivey, who had her own come-to-Kondo moment when she parted ways with $300 worth of clothes that still had the tags on. She left her job at consultant Booz Allen Hamilton and three years ago started For The Love of Tidy (tag line: “Tidy your home, change your life”).

Ivey found a willing devotee in Latta, who is paying $1,350 for 15 hours of consulting. Latta is fresh off a solo hiking trip in Sedona, Arizona, where she practiced her new ethos of buying less stuff and purchased only a couple things. For Christmas, she focused on experiences instead of physical gifts, including tickets on a replica of the Polar Express for two nieces.

This purge is “kind of like when you go into therapy,” Latta says. “This has been giving me the tools to have a process to really face this stuff and really design a life that I enjoy.”

Latta is a recent convert to a growing tribe of Americans who are rejecting the post-WWII consumerism that served as the engine of the world’s biggest economy. Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the U.S. economy, one of the world’s highest rates, and it’s even more crucial now that manufacturing has slowed.

But there are signs everywhere of people living stripped-down lives. It’s not just KonMari: Reality TV is flooded with shows about tiny houses and saving money. More people are convinced they can live cheaply in their 20s and 30s, and then retire in their 40s-a movement that’s been dubbed financial independence retire early, or FIRE.

Instead of buying stuff, consumers are opting to rent, with entire ecosystems built to lease everything from wardrobes to camping gear to toys. 2019 proved to be the year when the re-sale market mainstreamed to the point that buying used goods became OK for Christmas gifts.

Plaster all that with mounting anxiety about climate change and the environmental impact of consumption, including the packaging and miles from e-commerce deliveries, and you have the ingredients for a seismic shift, not just a short-lived trend. It would be more bad news for a struggling U.S. retail sector and a potential long-term threat to consumer spending, according to Michael Solomon, a marketing professor at Saint Joseph’s University.

Americans are “moving away from pride of ownership, which has been a bedrock of our capitalist society,” Solomon says. “It becomes more like: Use it and give it back, as opposed to own it forever.”

Big retail has taken notice. Macy’s is selling second-hand clothing at about 40 U.S. locations. Neiman Marcus bought a stake in an e-commerce company that sells pre-owned luxury handbags and other accessories. Meanwhile, malls are filling spaces once occupied by department stores and apparel chains with restaurants and trampoline gyms-another nod to the surging demand for experiences, not stuff.

To be sure, the average American was expected to increase Christmas spending by 4% this year with plans to shell out more than $1,000, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey. But other data shows increasing dissatisfaction. In the U.S., 61% of people say they recently received at least one unwanted gift, according to personal finance website Finder.com. Clothes and household wares top the list.

I was intrigued watching Ivey help Latta achieve her goal to “eliminate as much paper as possible” and create a clear, cozy environment. Bloomberg paid for her to come to my four-bedroom house, which I share with my husband and three young kids, for a two-hour session. But I was skeptical because I already considered myself a minimalist of sorts: We’re constantly donating to Goodwill, and I’ve never been shy about re-gifting.

Ivey arrived with a pair of indoor gray flats to slip on, a nice courtesy during a slushy winter day, and a small backpack with a label maker for tagging containers. We started at the kitchen table where we open the “The Tidy Home Joy Journal,” her own creation that she sells for $9.99 on Amazon and her website. In the “Visualizing Your Best Life” section, I write down that I want to spend more time with family and being outdoors.

That leads us to home in on holiday decor and my closet. I find a candle and two pairs of stretch pants that I hadn’t worn in at least a year to ditch. A heart-covered candy bowl, a hand-me-down from my mom, was added to the list. Throughout, Ivey emphasizes being positive. She discourages using words like “junk” or “mess” because even the discarded should be honored. It sounds a little silly at first, but even a few weeks later I find myself treating my things with more care and thought. It seems like a good practice to pass down to my kids.

But this isn’t just about throwing stuff away. Ivey suggested rolling socks sushi style, instead of balling them, which can stretch out the elastic. She recommended cutting off store tags from all household goods and clothing to “make them yours.” This even includes peeling those super sticky labels off Sterilite storage bins (she’s equipped with a special little tool to do just that).

In the end, the biggest takeaway-or maybe breakthrough-from my certified KonMari tidying is the ceremonial release of an item. It should be treated with respect and thanked for its service in your life, Ivey says. After more reflection, I think about how my daughter likes decorating for holidays, even smaller ones like Valentine’s Day.

So that candy dish with the hearts is staying.