FORMER prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra may have been given a provisional visa by the UK based on humanitarian grounds while her application for political asylum is considered.

The UK law allows applicants to stay in the country for up to five years for those who are qualified and are approved by the UK’s Home Office, according to a senior Thai public prosecutor.

Responding to the recent sighting in public of Yingluck along with an unidentified Thai woman in London, Thanakit Worathanachakul, a senior prosecutor at the Office of the Attorney-General, said the former premier could also seek a further five-year extension to stay in the UK after completing the first five years.

Yingluck fled the country last year just before the Supreme Court was due to read its verdict in the case against her over her government’s rice-pledging scheme. The court sentenced her to five years in jail for neglecting her official duty while supervising the scheme, resulting in a massive financial losses to the state.

According to Thanakit, it is highly likely that Yingluck has already applied, or will soon apply, for political asylum in the UK. Citing the UK’s law, he said there must be substantial evidence and reasons to justify the application for asylum. For example, applicants may state that they are fearful of maltreatment, physical assaults and unfair prosecution if they return to their home country.

Applicants may also seek political asylum based on racial, religious, nationality or political grounds as soon as they arrive in the UK. Afterwards, they will be interviewed by UK officials, who will review documents and other evidence provided by the applicants and their lawyers.

Applicants also need to provide information on their place of residence in the UK, while their spouses and children under 18 may also apply for the same status subject to approval by the UK Interior Ministry.

If the applications are rejected, they can lodge an appeal with the UK court to review their request. Thanarit said applicants who get approval would be able to stay in the UK for five years after which they could seek an extension of another five years if they could prove they still faced persecution in their home country.

In the event that any applications are rejected by the court due to lack of qualifications, the applicants, their spouses and minor children may still stay in the UK on humanitarian grounds for a period of five years with a possible extension of another five years.

Meanwhile, national police chief General Chaktip Chaichinda insisted that the Thai police, in cooperation with Interpol, remained committed to getting Yingluck back to Thailand after a deputy national police chief confirmed that the photos showing Yingluck and another Thai woman in London were likely to be genuine.

Thai authorities said they believed Yingluck did not use her Thai passports to travel and enter the UK since the documents were already invalid.

US PRESIDENT Donald Trump is expected to focus more on trade negotiations that could affect Thailand’s exports as he tries to divert American voters’ attention from a domestic political storm, local academics say.

Meanwhile, however, Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha has said that he is pleased with economic projections for 2018.

A book titled “Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House”, the latest political attack on Trump, has re-enforced suspicions about his campaign team’s collusion with Russia, said Somchai Phakaphasvivat, a Thai political scientist.

Somchai noted that Steve Bannon, a former top Trump aide, told the book’s author Michael Wolff that a meeting involving a Russian lawyer and Trump campaign officials including Trump’s son Donald Jr, was “treasonous”.

This comes as Special Counsel Robert Mueller has been investigating possible collusion between the Trump campaign team and Russia.

Somchai said that many US voters might be convinced by the allegations in the book rather than believe Trump, who tweeted furiously to deny them. The White House also dismissed the information in the book as false.

Somchai said that while white voters, his political base, may continue to support Trump, there were many controversial issues surrounding the president.

One trick up Trump’s sleeve is that he could play a more active role in international affairs, including putting more pressure on North Korea over the nuclear dispute. The move would have an impact on Thailand, as the US government would continue its campaign to gather support from Asian countries, said Somchai.

The next priority was to counter China’s influence, especially on trade, as China has a large trade surplus with the United States. Trump may seek to get further backing from Asean countries, Japan, South Korea and India.

Veteran economist Sompop Manarungsan shared Somchai’s view, saying that Trump would be more active in global trade issues in order to sway people from domestic politics that have heavily damaged his popularity.

With midterm elections coming up, Trump has to find new things to woo voters otherwise there is a high chance that his Republican party will lose its majority in both Congress and the Senate, said Sompop.

Trump had vowed to review trade agreements, especially with the 16 countries having trade surpluses with the US, but he has not had much time to concentrate on the issue as he has been busy with North Korea and changes to the tax regime. Trump has successfully pushed for drastic tax changes, including cutting the corporate tax rate to 21 per cent from 35 per cent.

Form now on he is expected to push harder in the international arena and China is the main target. If the world largest economy and second largest economy have a dispute on trade, it could have an impact on Asian supply chains, according to Sompop.

Thai exports to grow

“As we expected our exports this year will continue to grow, we should be aware of the impact of US trade policy,” warned Sompop. Both China and the US are among Thailand’s key export markets.

Back home, government spokesman Lt-General Sansern Kaewkamnerd yesterday said Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was happy with continued economic expansion and rising consumer confidence in December.

“The Prime Minister says it is possible that the Thai economy will expand 4.2-4.5 per cent or as high as 5 per cent, as projected by University of Thai Chamber of Commerce,” Sansern quoted Prayut as saying.

The Government Savings Bank has forecast an economic growth rate of 4.6 per cent.

Public investment in infrastructure projects will boost growth and the new welfare card will boost consumption, Sansern said.

However, Prayut was worried about lower prices of farm products especially rice, rubber sheet, cassava and maize. These are expected to rise in the second quarter due to the government’s subsidy policy. The government will also be stepping up measures against the import of cassava, said Sansern.

He also revealed that the government will provide more support to 3.5 million poor people whose incomes are lower than Bt30,000 a year. They will be given help to develop their skills, find new jobs domestically or aboard, own houses or have enough income to pay rent, and create their own businesses.

The country’s political outlook has become clearer after the New Year celebrations as Prayut, who led the 2014 military coup, said he is now a “politician”, signalling his interest in returning to power after the next polls.

Under the current charter, drafted by veteran lawmaker Meechai Ruchupan and other experts, Prayut would have to be nominated and endorsed by Parliament to be prime minister again.

To do so, he would have to contest the general election as an MP candidate and leader of a political party. Afterwards, if he were elected and had support from the majority of MPs in Parliament, he could be the next elected premier. This is the best and most prestigious way to return to power in a democratic path.

However, that scenario is now not possible because the charter states that members of National Legislative Assembly, Cabinet or National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), of which Prayut is the leader, have to resign from their posts within 90 days after the new charter becomes effective.

Since the charter has been effective for over nine months, it is too late for Prayut to apply and stand in the next polls as an MP candidate.

Another scenario is to be the next premier as leader of a political party under Article 88 of the charter, which states each political party is required to name a maximum of three persons as their candidates for prime minister prior to the election.

Under this scenario, Prayut could be nominated by a single party contesting in the next polls. One of the pluses of this scenario is that he would be praised for transparency and that could be a rallying point for the party to win votes.

However, as soon as Prayut revealed his political party affiliation, he would be attacked by other parties and that would diminish his probability of winning at the polls.

In this scenario, he would also have the support of about 250 senators handpicked by the NCPO who have the right to vote for the next premier in Parliament under a provisional clause of the charter.

As a result, Prayut needs the support of only 126 MPs to win the premiership in Parliament, as he could count on the support of the 250 senators to get the required majority. The biggest weakness in this scenario is that Prayut would be heading a minority government which may be short-lived due to the lack of majority support in the House of Representatives.

In this scenario, Prayut would also face criticisms of partiality since he would remain the caretaker premier and leader of NCPO while organising the national polls.

In addition, the party chosen by Prayut may not win the most votes, so it would be difficult for him to get a nomination and endorsement in Parliament.

Another possible scenario is to return to power as a PM candidate outside of the political parties’ list. The charter states that political parties may resort to naming an outsider to be prime minister if they could not win enough support for candidates on their list announced before the election takes place.

Under this scenario, Prayut could be seen as “impartial” in the upcoming polls, since he would not be affiliated to any party but he would be nominated by the parties that have the majority of votes.

However, Prayut would need more support in Parliament than any in other scenario, since at least 500 members of both lower and upper houses have to vote for him. In other words, he needs at least 250 MPs and 250 senators to return to power.

This means at least one of the major parties must support Prayut as their choice of prime minister. The Democrat party has been touted as a potential major party to back him. However, it remains unclear whether such a plan would work or Prayut would have to resort to winning enough parliamentary support to form a national coalition government with no opposition party.

Suwat Aphaipak, the PAD’s lawyer, said the bureau sent the notice on December 25, enforcing legal execution on 13 leaders following the court’s ruling.

Those included Sondhi Limthongkul, Maj-General Chamlong Srimuang, Pipob Thongchai, Suriyasai Katasila, Somsak Kosaisuk, Somkiat Pongpaiboon, as well as the group’s second generation leaders.

Suwat said the accused do not have enough assets to cover the compensation in the demand, so it’s up to the plaintiff to follow up the execution. The defendants could go bankrupt if they cannot repay the compensation.

NCPO spokesperson Colonel Winthai Suvaree said that Prayut meant that the charter designates a system that creates more flexibility in selecting a prime minister in case the parliament could not agree on a candidate.

That might help decrease the chances of power conflict and consequently the need for coups, Winthai said.

“We believe the charter drafters wished to create mechanisms that help lessen conflicts in Thai society,” the spokesperson said

“We would also like to ask for media cooperation to support the country while in this transition period.”

The NCPO’s comments came after Prayut replied to a media question on Thursday regarding speculation about his potential to become a post-election outsider prime minister.

“You know well that I would eliminate myself by saying anything now. We don’t know what the future will be like,” the premier answered.

“But the process for becoming an outside PM is laid out by the charter. If parties cannot settle for a certain PM choice in the parliament, the charter opens a way for an outside PM to be proposed.

“This is to eliminate the possibility of coup starting. There won’t be a coup any more since an outside PM will be selected in the parliament,” he said.

NACC secretary-general Worawit Sukboon said yesterday the NACC might as well conduct inquiries with all four people and would complete that part of the probe by March. If it finds links to other people, they would also be called in.

Prawit has also been told by the agency that he has 15 days to provide further clarification over his alleged possession of luxurious wristwatches and a large diamond ring, the secretary-general said. The NACC sent the Deputy PM a notification on Thursday, he added.

Because the scandal was in the public interest and tips were flooding in, Worawit said it should be concluded within weeks.

NACC president Pol General Watcharapol Prasarnratchakit yesterday said separately that the call for Prawit to submit a further explanation was normal procedure and did not necessarily mean the initial clarification had been inadequate.

Asked if Prawit had to clarify his possession of all the watches seen in the photographs on the Internet or just the Richard Mille, Watcharapol said he had to detail his reasons for possessing all of them. The secretary-general had the authority to ask for any information he needed in the case.

The development came after Prawit submitted a letter late last month to clarify his possession of several luxurious timepieces and a diamond ring. This came after photographs went viral of the Deputy PM wearing a striking diamond ring and a Richard Mille watch at a group photo of the new Cabinet.

The timepiece alone could cost millions of baht. Members of the public have questioned how a military officer who makes less than Bt1 million a year could have afforded to buy such a fancy watch and whether or not he had declared the assets when he took up the ministerial post, as is required under law.

News has been circulating that a source close to Prawit said the Richard Mille that kicked off the public criticism belonged to well-to-do horophile who was a long-time friend of Prawit. The source said the duo had often shared wristwatches and the Richard Mille in question had been lent by him to the Deputy PM.

The NACC secretary-general Worawit Sukboon 

The secretary-general refused to say whether Prawit had provided a similar account in the explanation letter.

However, when asked what he would advise politicians who borrowed stuff from friends, Worawit responded: “It depends on the relationship. But we all have friends and we trust them, right?”

A dozen more photographs of Prawit wearing pricey wristwatches on different occasions have emerged over the past weeks. Thus far, netizens had found that the general had worn at least 15 luxurious timepieces, with a combined worth exceeding Bt17 million.

The official, however, declined to disclose the number of wristwatches Prawit had identified in his clarification letter, saying only it was “as many as seen in the news”.

Worawit also announced yesterday that Prawit had been cleared of the allegation of inappropriate use of taxpayers’ money in connection with the scandal-plagued trip to Hawaii last year.

Both the NACC and the Office of Auditor-General had found no irregularities after scrutinising the trip, in which Prawit and some 30 officials took an allegedly extravagant, chartered flight that served caviar as the in-flight meal. The NACC had decided to reject the complaint, the secretary-general said.

The Muslim Attorney Centre, in the Muslim-majority southern border province, was asked by the family of Nurhayati Masoh, a 23-year-old Yala resident with visual impairment, to help her file an appeal, foundation chief Adilan Ali-ishok said yesterday.

He said the convicted woman’s family wanted the Centre to appeal the court verdict, especially as the imprisonment was not suspended.

“The foundation will see how we can help her get mercy and the right to get suspension of the sentence that she deserves,” he said.

The legal aid foundation might also seek a royal pardon on Nurhayati’s behalf, Adilan said. He added that the team would cite the fact that the woman is blind and that life would be more difficult for her than for other inmates with no visual impairment. “She will need a lot of assistance to go places inside the prison. I believe prisons are not built with visually-impaired people in mind,” the lawyer said.

In October 2016, Nurhayati shared an article by fugitive pro-democracy academic Giles Ungpakorn on her Facebook account. She confessed to it, and the sentence against her was reduced by half from the original decision of three years. The woman had accessed Facebook using an application that assists people with a visual impairment to do so. She was reported by other blind people in her Facebook circle.

The government has instructed police to track down and arrest fugitive former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra so she can be brought back to Thailand to face justice, deputy national police chief Pol General Srivara Ransibhramanakul said yesterday.

Sriwara said the instruction had come from Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, who oversees the Royal Thai Police. He told reporters that the police were still hopeful they would succeed in seeing Yingluck brought home and prosecuted. “Police are working the best we can,” he said.

Sriwara has instructed the officers in the case to regularly seek updates about Yingluck’s whereabouts from their Interpol counterparts overseas and report to him every week. According to Sriwara, Thai police had asked Interpol for up-to-date information before the New Year but were still awaiting a reply.

Police yesterday confirmed the authenticity of Yingluck’s photo taken with a Thai tourist in London although they could not be sure the picture had been taken recently.

Photo of Yingluck Shinawatra taken with a Thai tourist taken in London

Public prosecutors, meanwhile, maintained that their hunt for Yingluck and her fugitive brother, ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, to be prosecuted in Thailand was still active.

Sriwara said Yingluck’s latest photo was genuine. “The Forensic Science Office points out that it is highly likely the photo is not doctored,” Sriwara said.

This week, a photo of Yingluck taken with an unidentified Thai tourist in London appeared in the Thai media.

Alleged photo of Yingluck in London (courtesy of Facebook page @secret100million)

It was reported that the ex-PM was spotted during the New Year holiday outside a shopping mall in the British capital and she did not seem to be making any effort to hide her identity, nor to have any bodyguard nearby, the report said.

A source said that many Thai tourists and expatriates in London often asked to have their photos taken with Yingluck if they met her. They would also ask her about her current life and expressed concern for her well-being, according to the source.

Pol Maj-General Thawatchai Mekprasertsuk, commander of the police’s Forensic Science Office, confirmed that the latest Yingluck photo was genuine, adding that thanks to the photo’s high resolution, forensic officials were convinced that it was not doctored.

“However, we cannot tell when the photo was taken, whether it is old or new. It’s because we don’t have the original for examination,” he said.

Pol Colonel Surapan Thaiprasert, deputy commander of the police’s Foreign Affairs Bureau, said yesterday that Interpol police in the United Arab Emirates had told their Thai counterpart in mid-November that Yingluck had left the UAE for the United Kingdom.

The Thai Interpol later asked their UAE counterparts about details of Yingluck’s flight to the UK but had still not received a reply, he said.

Meanwhile, public prosecutors said yesterday they were still pursuing politicians who were overseas but wanted by the Thai law agencies.

Prosecutors are working with relevant state agencies, such as the Royal Thai Police, Department of Special Investigation and Foreign Affairs Ministry, in order to get wanted politicians extradited to Thailand for prosecution, said Prayut Phetkhun, deputy spokesman for the Office of the Attorney-General.

Earlier yesterday, the prime minister and the Foreign Ministry refused to deny or confirm latest media reports that Yingluck was now in the UK.PM Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha

Prayut simply shook his head when he was asked by a reporter whether he had seen the Yingluck photo taken outside a shopping mall in London. He declined any comments on the matter and left quickly.

Government Spokesman Lt-General Sansern Kaewkamnerd said “international legal procedures” should be followed by Thai authorities in their pursuit of Yingluck, who “must be in some foreign country as she is not in Thailand”.

However, Prayut has yet to issue any orders related to updating Yingluck’s whereabouts, Sansern said. “While the legal procedure is compulsory, the PM doesn’t wish to concentrate much on politics and make it such a big deal,” he told The Nation.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Busadee Santipitaks said yesterday that her agency had no additional information regarding Yingluck when asked about the latest sighting of the ex-PM overseas.

The British Embassy yesterday declined any comments on Yingluck, following her latest public appearance and reports that she was seeking asylum in the UK.

“We do not comment on whether an individual is in the UK or not. Border Force will consider any applications for entry in line with the Immigration Rules,” the embassy responded when asked to comment on the matter. Interpol Thailand also refused to comment. 

A woman resembling Yingluck was spotted in a London mall along with a boy who resembled her 15-year-old son Supasek Amornchat. The Facebook page @secret100million posted the photo last week and its administrator wrote that the photo had been received from a well-intentioned person.

Yingluck fled the country in August, shortly before the Supreme Court’s verdict in a case against her. She was sentenced to five years in jail.

Conducted by security agencies, the nationwide survey showed the government’s approval ratings at 5.73 out of 10 in its third year, well below the 7.02 it scored six months after the 2014 coup.

Rising unemployment, falling agricultural prices and increasing living costs were seen as the reasons for change in public sentiment towards the junta government. The grassroots people also feel the need to be taken care of because of their economic vulnerability.

Sansern reasoned that it was not unusual for any new government to enjoy a “honeymoon period” before its popularity decreases over time.

“Whatever the result of any poll, the government will continue to pursue its policies. We are not upset or negligent. Those economic problems will remain our focus too,” he said.

Meanwhile, politicians continued to urge Prayut to come clean on his future plans after he said recently that he was now a politician and that he did not rule out the possibility of becoming an “outside” PM after the next election.

Jurin Laksanawisit

Democrat Party deputy leader Jurin Laksanawisit said the junta leader’s move signalled a shift in his role towards the political arena – from being a so-called referee to a player.

“He no longer needs be reluctant to accept the possibility of becoming an outsider PM after coming out as a politician,” Jurin said. “He can now act like a politician without having to be reluctant any more.”

Nipit Intharasombat, another Democrat deputy leader, said Prayut’s remarks might benefit him in future politics.

“Like other politicians, he has to accept scrutiny and political morals. Politicians, unlike Army chiefs or civil servants, have to live on public trust,” said Nipit.

Nikorn Chamnong, Chart Thai Pattana Party director, said that it was for the public to justify whether the junta premier’s announcement would create a political advantage for their camp. “Although mechanisms may be created to build such an advantage, public perception may however change from advantage to disadvantage,” Nikorn said.

He also worried about Prayut’s promise to hold elections this year as the details of the draft laws on MP election and Senate selection have not been seen or discussed by politicians yet. According to the charter’s Article 77, parties related to any law shall be asked for opinions during the legislation process of such a law, he said.