Smartphone leads as emerging Asia embraces digital banking

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Smartphone leads as emerging Asia embraces digital banking

Economy April 18, 2018 01:00

By The Nation

Digital banking is continuing its rapid growth across both emerging and developed Asia.

Smartphone banking is outpacing all other types of digital growth, highlighting the challenges for traditional banks in the region and the opportunities for their online-only counterparts, according to the latest survey entitled ‘Asia’s digital Banking race: Giving customers what they want” by McKinsey yesterday.

Key findings from the survey, which covers 15 Asian markets, including Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The survey also focus on the doubling of digital banking penetration in Emerging Asia, growing 1.5 to 3 times since the last survey in 2014.

Smartphone banking penetration has grown at a faster pace than overall digital banking, jumping 2- to 4-fold in many Emerging Asian countries

Nearly half of Emerging Asian respondents not using digital banking today are likely to do so in future, meaning digital banking penetration here is expected to accelerate significantly.

The percentage of digitally active customers has grown significantly since 2014, doubling in Emerging Asia and growing 1.2x in Developed Asia.

Approximately 55 to 80 per cent of customers in Asia would consider opening an account with a branchless, digital-only bank 35 per cent to 50 per cent of consumers change their buying decision based on evaluation done on digital channels.

Vinayak HV, Partner at McKinsey & Company and Head of the Asia Pacific Digital Banking Practice, said for banks, these changes represent both a challenge and an opportunity. What’s clear is that they cannot rely on their existing business models and need to consciously invest to change their businesses in line with rapid changes in consumer sentiment and behaviour. Many are already doing this or looking to both protect their existing share and capture newer opportunities. Meanwhile, shifts in consumer behavior is also creating opportunities for newer attackers both platform players and emerging fintechs.”

Banking loyalty varies significantly between Developed and Emerging Asia: while around 70 percent of Emerging Asia consumers would recommend their bank to a friend or colleague, only around 40 percent of consumers would do so in Developed Asia.

For banks, these changes represent both a challenge and an opportunity. What’s clear is that they cannot rely on their existing business models and need to consciously invest to change their businesses in line with consumer sentiment and behaviour. Many are already doing this or looking to partner with Fintech businesses at the risk of being left behind.

At the heart of this there is also the challenge of education. While many people are fully onboard with digital financial products, education still lacks in many respects. There is some resistance to certain types of products, and in some regions the regulatory landscape can pose a challenge for how services are delivered.

Meanwhile, yesterday Moody’s Investors Service also announces the latest reported that Blockchain technology has the potential to significantly reduce the costs and time involved in cross-border banking transactions, increasing banks’ efficiency but putting pressure on their fees and commissions.

Moody’s report focuses on two specific areas in order to assess the potential disruption that Blockchain could cause: cross-border transactions and fee and commission income. The report notes that these are just two of the channels through which the technology is likely to impact bank operations.

“Blockchain has the potential to substantially change how a wide range of financial services are executed,” said Colin Ellis, Moody’s Managing Director — Credit Strategy and the report’s co-author. “Banks could benefit significantly from the development and implementation of blockchain technologies in terms of enhanced efficiency, cost savings and risk reduction.

“But the adoption of these technologies will also limit processing fees, commissions and gains on foreign exchange transactions, which will pressure revenue.”

Swiss banks would be most exposed to reductions in fees and commission, with 50 per cent of their revenue coming from that source. Italian, Canadian, and Israeli banks follow at around 35 per cent. Meanwhile, banks in Asia Pacific, as well as some smaller European periphery countries, are relatively less prone to relying on fees and commissions in generating total revenue.

Bullish brokers pencil in 1,900 points for SET

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Bullish brokers pencil in 1,900 points for SET

Economy April 18, 2018 01:00

By   THE NATION

CONFIDENCE is building among brokerages for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index to reach 1,900 points later this year, even as a possible escalation in the Syrian war and trade conflicts loom as negatives in the short term.

SCB Securities Co Ltd (SCBS) maintains a positive perspective on the benchmark index, holding to an earlier projection for 1,900 points before the end of the year, Its research cites a boost from state and private-sector investment, the spending stimulus from the mid-year budget, expected loan growth, and improved asset quality in the banking sector, the company’s senior vice president, investment strategy department, research group, Isara Ordeedolchet, said yesterday.

He said the performance of the overall global economy ended on a positive note in 2017, with a forecast for growth of 3.7 per cent year on year. Isara said the global economy was likely to sustain the momentum in 2018.

Still, the investment atmosphere would be affected by a sooner-than-expected rise in interest rates and any further slide towards a global trade war.

The economy grew 3.9 per cent in 2017 and is forecast to expand further in 2018, bolstered by a recovery in private investment and continued robust consumption from the previous year. Based on an economic forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy is projected to grow 3.9 per cent this year, driven by an upward revision of the United States economic forecast. Under this outlook, Thailand’s exports will keep growing.

As for investment strategy for the second quarter of 2018, Isara said that the SET Index rose around 4 per cent from early this year to March, driven by a stock rally in the energy and petrochemical sectors. However, he sees the index moving sideways in the quarter.

Globlex Securities (GBS) expects the SET Index to move in a range of 1,745 to 1,790 points, with support likely from an improvement in first-quarter earnings from US listed companies and a rise in global crude prices to near three-year highs, Wilasinee Boonmasungsong, research director at GBS, said.

She said she expected the benchmark index would also gain a lift from the increased US corporate earnings to flow from tax reform in that country and China’s satisfactory economic figures for the first quarter. Wilasinee, too, is encouraged by the higher oil prices.

The brokerage advises that people should buy gold when the price weakens to US$1,300 to US$1,315 an ounce and sell when the metal is trading from $1,345 to $1,360.

Yesterday, SET Index closed 1,755.53 by dropped 11.64 points from Friday with trade value Bt54.73 billion.

The baht held steady at 31.20 to the US dollar when the morning trade session started yesterday, apparently reflected eased concerns over a widening in the Syrian war and the extent of US trade protection, Jitipol Puksamatanan, a strategist at Krungthai Bank, said yesterday.

The SET Index yesterday rose/fell xxxx % to xxxxx points.

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Markets are expected to pay higher attention on listed companies’ earnings than the political issues, he said.

In the overall, markets will likely risk on more and Asian currencies could appreciate if yuan appreciates on concerns over political issues and currency distortion, he said.

Alibaba boss set to reveal EEC plans

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File photo : Jack Ma
File photo : Jack Ma

Alibaba boss set to reveal EEC plans

Economy April 18, 2018 01:00

By The Nation

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ALIBABA Group’s plans for investment in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and associated e-commerce initiatives will be revealed after the technology giant’s founder, Jack Ma, arrives in Thailand tomorrow.

Industry Minister Uttama Savanayana said that Ma, the executive chairman of the Chinese e-commerce operator, would use the visit to announce the group’s planned investments and collaborative schemes with Thailand that are aimed at upgrading the digital technology skills of the workforce.

Representatives of the Ministry of Industry and other government agencies have had discussions with Alibaba on ways to advance cooperation since the Ma visited Thailand in 2016. The other agencies include the EEC office, the Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP), the Ministry of Commerce (MOC), the Board of Investment, the Customs Department, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) and Thailand Post.

These agencies have drafted the details of five collaborative projects to help drive forward Thailand’s digital industry and promote the greater use of digital technology in order to support the government’s Thailand 4.0 innovation policy.

Among these projects, a Smart Digital Hub would be set up in the EEC, drawing on Alibaba’s technology prowess in logistics, for faster transport of goods between Thailand and China, as well as the so-called CLMV states – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam – among other countries.

It is envisioned that the hub will help Thai startup ventures and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to use digital technology to develop their products and services. Customs procedures will also be upgraded to enable digitally processing.

The Department of Industrial Promotion and the DITP will join with Alibaba Group, through the Alibaba Business School (ABS), to develop digital talent and promote the more widespread use of e-commerce platforms, while networking with technology experts in China.

Thai startups and SMEs will be helped to gain access to the regional global value chain via industry transformation centres in Thailand.

A Thailand Tourism Platform will be set up by the TAT and the Chinese e-commerce behemoth for marketing activities on online platforms and tourism Big Data will be used to penetrate targeted markets and promote Thailand’s tourism industry.

In yet another initiative, the MOC will work with Alibaba Group to launch the Thai Rice Flagship Store on Tmall.com – an Alibaba platform – for online trading of Thai rice in China. The plan will boost business for rice exporters, with direct online access to the Chinese market.

Ma would meet Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and sign a memorandum of understanding on investment projects in the EEC, Uttama said.

Alibaba Group’s greater focus on Thailand comes after a study by the company indicated the country’s potential to become a regional digital and e-commerce centre. Worldwide, about 68 per cent of the population have Internet access through mobile phones, while the ranks of active social media users on phones have expanded 14 per cent – with a 16 per cent in the Asia-Pacific region.

Thailand’s e-commerce market is expected to jump from Bt113.4 billion this year to Bt186.5 billion in 2022.

Average cost of international business trip to Bangkok now $278 a day, ECA research finds

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Average cost of international business trip to Bangkok now $278 a day, ECA research finds

Economy April 17, 2018 17:36

By The Nation

Bangkok has moved into the top 50 most expensive locations in Asia for business travel for the first time.

This was one of the findings of the latest “Daily Rates” research published by ECA International, the leading provider of knowledge, information and software for the management and assignment of employees around the world.

The average business trip to the capital now costs US$278 (Bt8,675) a day, with the Thai cities that were included in the survey all seeing a slight increase in business travel costs.

Updated annually, ECA’s “Daily Rates” reports provide average costs for hotel accommodation, which makes up the bulk of any daily allowance, as well as meals, drinks, laundry, taxi transport and daily essentials.

Hong Kong is the most expensive location for business travellers at $508 per day, overtaking Tokyo which drops to second in the rankings, said Lee Quane, ECA regional director – Asia.

Singapore ranks joint third with Seoul, with the average cost of a business trip to Singapore having increased to $479 per day.

Meanwhile, the cheapest place in the region for international business travel continues to be Malaysia, with Kuala Lumpur and Johor Bahru remaining at the bottom of the rankings.

“The continued weakness of the Malaysian ringgit against major currencies has ensured that

the cost of business travel in Malaysia is cheaper than elsewhere in Asia,” Quane said.

“Although fellow Asean countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei and Cambodia have cities which rank amongst the cheapest in the region for business travel, the cost of business travel remains low in Malaysia. The cost of a business trip to Kuala Lumpur is less than half

of what it is in Hong Kong,” he added.

Chinese cities have seen an increase in cost for a standard business trip, with Shanghai now

ranked as the 9th most expensive location for business travel in the region.

“Chinese cities have become costlier for business travellers in the past 12 months. Increased prices of goods and services commonly consumed by business travellers has led to the rise of many Chinese cities in our rankings.

“However, despite the increase, Shanghai is still much cheaper than Hong Kong or Tokyo for business travel, and is over $100 a day less expensive on average,” the regional director added.

Mintel survey sees trend away from meat consumption

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Mintel survey sees trend away from meat consumption

Breaking News April 17, 2018 13:58

By The Nation

New research from global market-intelligence agency Mintel reveals that two in five urban Indonesians (39 per cent) and one in three urban Thais (34 per cent) consumed more non-animal sources of protein (eggplant, dairy, grains) in 2017 compared to the previous year.

The trend has also infiltrated meat-loving Australia, where 16 per cent of urban residents said they avoided or intended to avoid red meat in 2017 and one in five (19 per cent) consumed more non-animal sources of protein.

Of those who avoided or planned to avoid red meat, half said they believed it would be healthier for them.

“Traditional agriculture is unable to meet the protein needs of the world,” said Michelle Teodoro, Mintel’s global food science and nutrition analyst. “The current levels of demand for meat supplies globally, and the relative growth of meat production on this scale will have a significant, negative impact on the environment.

“At the same time, more and more consumers are moving away from meat and looking towards alternative sources of protein, offering some relief and creating new opportunities in the global consumer marketplace.

“Pressure on the natural environment is forcing consumers and companies to rethink what they take and make,” Teodoro said. “Meanwhile, new technologies are redefining how we create and use food and drink. While developments that engineer rather than harvest food and drink staples, such as laboratory-grown meat, have grabbed headlines, the resulting products are still years away from mass commercial availability. This showcases the potential for more innovative, sustainable and alternative protein sources.

“The world is changing and food scientists have a big role to play in the future of food. Companies and brands should be looking across industries for inspiration and opportunities for collaboration with scientists and food engineers.”

Mintel research shows that one in four urban Indonesians planned to follow a plant-based/vegetarian diet in 2017, while 61 per cent of urban Thais and over half of urban Australians planned to eat more vegetables and fruit.

Furthermore, nutritious or health-related reasons (56 per cent) are the top factor influencing urban Thai consumers when choosing food or drink products to buy.

“With high animal protein intake associated with health concerns, any reduction in consumption will have positive health outcomes. Today’s consumers are also starting to include more vegetables and fruits in their diets, or adopting plant-based or vegetarian diets, given the numerous health benefits that come along with them. Along with a shift to plant and lab-based proteins, the world’s reliance on factory-farmed animals will also be reduced – contributing to animal welfare globally,” Teodoro said.

This is all reflected in “Mintel Trend: Hungry Planet”, which discusses how consumer purchasing decisions are being influenced by issues surrounding sustainability and ethics, and in “Mintel Trend: Bannedwagon”, which details how consumers are focusing on ingredients and production methods, embracing once-niche ways of living and eating.

“Moving forward, we will see aspects of environmentalism penetrate various lifestyle goals,” said Delon Wang, trends manager for Asia-Pacific at Mintel.

“With the mantra ‘you are what you eat’ top of the mind today, consumers are assessing their lifestyle, everyday purchases and surroundings. Additionally, the idea of inclusivity and accepting niche lifestyles of global consumers has popularised, to a certain extent. We are seeing more understanding about unique diets and living habits, creating new guidelines to live as the benefits are exhorted.”

Tips for cliching a business deal

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Tips for cliching a business deal

Economy April 17, 2018 04:58

By THE NATION

FIRST BUSINESS rule: Know the country and the people whom you are dealing with. But given its social complexity shaped by a history of wars, revolutions and political upheavals, trying to understand Russia can be a challenge. However, some tips from Thais with business experiences in this vast country should be of some help.

First of all, you need to shed the perception of Russia as influenced by all those Hollywood movies. There are no KGB-type of people lurking around every corner and Moscow is as lively and safe as any capital city in the world.

Russian businessmen are a tough nut to crack. Clinching a business deal with them could be an uphill task. But once an agreement is reached, you can be assured of their faithful commitment till the end.

A business deal may appear within reach but is being held up by just one single person. Don’t be alarmed: This is a society where top-down decision-making is normal.

Openly proud and sometimes arrogant? Of course, what else do you expect from people of a country known for its long illustrious history, rich culture and superpower status? The Russians want cooperation – not help.

In this country, you could be surprised to find out how important protocol is in business meetings or negotiations.

Getting the right local partners and employing as many locals as you can should be one of the first steps toward success,

And well, don’t be surprised if your e-mails go unanswered. Responding to phone calls or e-mails are probably not always a top priority of many Russian businessmen.

Thai-Russian trade yet to surge despite long ties

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Poj Harnpol, Charge D’affaires at the Thai Embassy in Moscow, addressed a group of senior Thai journalists,  stressing the need for “major deals” with Russia to raise Thailand’s profile.
Poj Harnpol, Charge D’affaires at the Thai Embassy in Moscow, addressed a group of senior Thai journalists, stressing the need for “major deals” with Russia to raise Thailand’s profile.

Thai-Russian trade yet to surge despite long ties

Breaking News April 17, 2018 04:53

By THE NATION

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A VISIT by probably the biggest Russian trade delegation to Thailand in February this year can certainly be taken as a testament to Kremlin’s “Look East” policy. But how it will be translated into real trade or economic interaction between the two countries remains a challenge.

Thailand and Russia celebrate its 121st anniversary of diplomatic relationship this year. But as far as trade relationship is concerned, much is still left to be desired. However, the good news is that Thai-Russian relations in general has been on a gradual rise, especially after the meeting in Moscow between Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-O-cha and President Putin last year.

But while as many as 1.3 million Russians visited Thailand last year and trade value between the two countries has increased dramatically to top US$3 billion in 2017, Poj Harnpol, Charge D’affaires at the Thai Embassy in Moscow, admitted that Thailand still doesn’t figure prominently enough on Russia’s radar.

Only 30 per cent of the US$10 billion trade value targeted for 2020 under an agreement reached between Thailand and Russia has been achieved so far. Thailand’s export items to Russia are mostly automobiles, auto parts, rubber and food products while imports from Russia include crude oil and steel and metal products.

Speaking to a group of senior Thai journalists and executives of PTT Public Co Ltd visiting Moscow recently, Poj said Russia is still a market unfamiliar to Thai businessmen and investors who are deterred by its distance, language barrier, unclear rules and regulations. But for Thailand to play a more important role in its trade relations with Russia, it may need to come up with some major trade transactions.

“Probably what we need are some major deals with Russia in order to attract more attention,” he said, citing recent procurements of Russian aircrafts by Indonesia through a barter agreement.

 

Helicopters

Besides a purchase of a few Russian helicopters earlier, the Thai military recently signed an agreement to buy Russia’s renowned Kalashnikov assault rifles.

For historical reason, Vietnam is another Asean country that has a much closer diplomatic and trade relationship with Russia. Russia has been a major arms supplier for Vietnam, its staunch ally since the Cold War period.

Poj said the prospects for a more comprehensive Thai-Russian economic and trade relationship will be greatly boosted by a free trade agreement that Thailand is negotiating with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. The trade union which was set up in 2015 comprises Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

He said as many as 30 countries are queuing up to join the trade group but Thailand is being given a priority.

While at present tourism is the main anchor in Thailand’s economic relationship with Russia, Poj said aiming for bigger trade with Russia should be one of its important dimensions as Moscow is increasingly looking eastward to circumvent sanctions by European countries.

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Economy April 17, 2018 04:46

By The Nation

LAW REFORM NUDGE

Discussions at the top level of government have been held on a proposal by the junta-appointed Law Reform Committee that a working panel be set up to speedily reform regulations covering business.

The Minister of Prime Minister’s Office, Kobsak Pootrakool, has been in talks with Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam on the matter.

Kobsak is chairman of a subcommittee reviewing the law that is widely regarded as a hindrance for businesses, He said the proposed panel would give priority to reviewing the economic law and the procedures for business permits before moving on to other aspects of it.

The abolition of unnecessary regulations, along with slimming down the number of permits, is expected to cut the cost of doing business doing cost by between Bt40 billion and Bt50 billion in the initial period, Kobsak said.

Thailand has around 700,000 types of permits. The government aims to cut the number to 6,000 this year and to 1,000 within five years.

 

MYANMAR JOBS BOOST

 

Proposals approved by the Myanmar Investment Commission in fiscal 2018 will create more than 110,000 jobs, the Directorate of Investment and Companies Administration said.

Some 93,197 domestic workers and 2,508 foreign workers will be employed in enterprises by 222 foreign investors this fiscal year. More than 21,500 domestic workers and 467 foreign workers will be employed under proposals backed by Myanmar investors in the 2018 fiscal year.

More people have moved to the Yangon region due to increasing number of job opportunities there, according to a survey conducted by International Labour Organisation.

About 42 per cent of people living in that region are from other states and regions and 26 per cent relocated for work, the survey said.

Internal migration has picked up since 2011, when the country’s economy began improving under political reforms, according to a survey conducted by the World Bank and the Livelihoods and Food Security Trust Fund in 2015. – ELEVEN MEDIA

Workers urged to embrace change in digital era

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Paradai Theerathada, an executive development expert
Paradai Theerathada, an executive development expert

Workers urged to embrace change in digital era

Economy April 17, 2018 04:28

By KWANCHAI RUNGFAPAISARN
THE NATION

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WORKERS must pursue innovation, improve processes and create more efficiencies in order to help their organisations stay competitive, says an expert, stressing that workplace comfort zones should be abandoned in the face of the challenges from digitisation.

Paradai Theerathada, an executive development expert, said that the priority is to convince workers of the imminent threat of digitisation in their working lives. People hate to change until they absolutely have to, Paradai said, and by that time, it is usually too late.

“Human beings like predictability and structure. But the world is transforming at such a rapid pace that, to keep up, people need to stay ahead of the curve,” he said.

“They need to first change their mindsets to embrace change as an everyday norm and to become open to, if not comfortable with, change itself. Second, they should stay positive and find the courage of their convictions to overcome the paralysis of inaction. Third, they need to find ways to implement ideas.

Workers and executives should not “bullet-proof ideas in a meeting room”, he said, but rather put them into action. “It takes a lot of work to get over the hump at first but it gets easier with each small success,” Paradai said.

Fourth, said Paradai, “celebrate small tangible wins”. Those small victories act to reinforce people’s behaviour changes “and will create a sense of inspiration and motivation for not only yourself, but also for those around you”.

He added: “The pride that you and your team feel will act as a catalyst, positively reinforcing change and creating a ripple effect.”

Before starting his own executive coaching consultancy, Paradai was chief corporate affairs officer at DTAC from 2016 to 2017. Earlier, he had been executive vice president at TMB Bank and GE Capital. Companies need to convince their employees of the urgent nature of change, he said, and the importance of proactively choosing to disrupt their own approach before external factors force disruption on them and they have to play catch-up.

“Companies need to invest more in developing their workforce’s interpersonal skills and drive for self-improvement,” Paradai said. That would help inspirational leaders who can motivate people in a time of constant flux to come forward.“Unfortunately, too many companies focus solely on competency and functional growth because it is more black and white. Then, around bonus time, management wonders why resignation rates are so high,” said Paradai.

“Everyone wants to add value and make a mark in the world. Employees want to be able to go to work every day and feel that they contributed to helping the company add value to its stakeholders.

“They want to be able to come home and tell friends and family about this value contribution, as it provides them with a sense of pride and recognition. Therefore, companies need to make sure each and every employee understand their role in the company’s mission.”

Paradai said that many companies try to improve the skills of their employees in a superficial manner that does not always address the root cause. For example, when some bosses see that team members are making poor presentations, they will send them to PowerPoint training. What the boss may not realise is that the employee’s presentation might be unsatisfactory because of a self-limiting belief or fear that has manifested inside them over time. No amount of PowerPoint training will overcome confidence issues, Paradai said.

“That is where a company may benefit from having an effective mentor coach to help with personal executive development,” he said. “With bosses focused on achieving targets, they might not be investing enough time in developing team potential to the point where they can achieve those targets.

“Management needs to invest the time to work with teams on a personal level to help them develop, increase engagement and increase recognition.”

He said this would build a positive inspirational culture in the workplace. “There are many coaches in Thailand but most are from backgrounds in human-resources learning and development or training,” Paradai said.

“This would be fine if theory alone was enough. There is, however, a void in the market in terms of coaches who have practical hands-on knowledge and trouble-shooting know-how as a result of actually holding top leadership positions with varying multinational and local functional experience to help foster more effective leaders in today’s competitive business landscape.”

Myanmar needs ‘more liberalisation’

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Myanmar needs ‘more liberalisation’

Economy April 16, 2018 01:00

By Khine Kyaw
The Nation
Yangon

Though Myanmar has liberalised some policies in recent years to attract more foreign direct investment, its FDI regulations are more restrictive than in most peer economies in Southeast Asia, according to the Asian Development Bank’s new report on the regional economy launched on April 11.

Yumiko Tamura, principal country specialist at ADB Myanmar Resident Mission, said further liberalisations were needed in FDI regulations and the banking sector, including opening up to foreign competition and adjusting the interest rate.

“FDI is crucial to Myanmar over the medium term to finance its persistent current-account deficit and to support growth,” she said.

She expected FDI to be the main source of financing for the current-account deficit.

Despite limited scope for portfolio capital inflows, FDI can tap the nation’s potential for export-oriented production of labour-intensive goods, Tamura said.

“Imports are growing faster than exports to finance development needs, widening the trade

deficit. ODA (official development assistance) can serve as a cushion but it is small,” she said.

Tamura said continued efforts towards a more conducive business climate would attract increased foreign investment.

She urged a focus on screening and approval procedures, foreign equity holdings, capital repatriation, construction permits, tax incentives and property registration.

In a bid to buoy investor confidence and attract sizeable FDI in the years to come, policy makers should effectively implement reforms, said Tamura. She also urged implementing a medium- or long-term strategy – a Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan – and to introduce strategic public investment planning and prioritisation.

The Asian Development Outlook 2018 states that investment growth may have softened as investors await clarity on a new company law expected in August. The external economic environment should, however remain favourable provided that global growth continued to be strong.

According to Tamura, agricultural production, industry expansion, stronger demand for tourism and services related to information technology, and stronger domestic demand will drive the nation’s growth over the next few years.

She said Myanmar’s economy recovered last year, with 6.8 per cent growth, up from 5.9 per cent in fiscal year 2016. She expected growth to be sustained this year, and accelerated to 7.2 per cent next year.

Tamura said the economy is not severely affected by the situation in northern Rakhine state. Despite ongoing conflicts there, the nation’s growth had quickened, thanks to improved agriculture, industry and service expansion, stronger exports and robust private consumption.

Thanks to the better weather, the agriculture sector has enjoyed 3.5 per cent growth, contributing to nearly 30 per cent of gross domestic product.

The industry and service sectors have grown over 8 per cent. Robust manufacturing drove higher industrial output and services benefited from buoyant tourism and strengthening domestic consumption.

“Agriculture is forecast to continue to grow robustly, assuming normal weather and favourable commodity prices. Signs indicate improved conditions for manufacturing,” she said.

Growth in industry is therefore projected to strengthen over the next two years.

Services should expand further with solid growth in tourism and information technology services.

Driven by the demand for capital goods to supply infrastructure projects, growth in merchandise imports is estimated to have accelerated fivefold to 12 per cent from 2.4 per cent growth in FY2016.

Exports were driven by rice shipments estimated at 2.8 million tonnes, the highest in half a century, and by high demand for garments. Earnings from service exports continued to remain buoyant, and higher purchasing power strongly supported private consumption.

Last year, inflation eased at an estimated 5.3 per cent, down from 6.8 per cent in FY2016, reflecting lower domestic food inflation, subdued international commodity prices and a stable exchange rate.

However, higher growth and an expected rise in international oil prices will increase inflationary pressures. This year, inflation is forecast to accelerate to 6.2 per cent before moderating to 6 per cent in 2019.

The current account deficit is forecast to slightly widen to the equivalent of 5.4 per cent of GDP this year and 5.5 per cent next year. A better external economic environment is expected to increase exports, while imports will also grow to support public investments in infrastructure and continuing FDI.

Tamura expected the fiscal deficit to continue. She said the fiscal balance is projected to remain in deficit around 4 per cent of GDP over the next two years, reflecting an increase in spending to support development agenda.

“Public financial management needs to be strengthened for improved revenue collection, efficient expenditures, and continued reduction in CBM (Central Bank of Myanmar) financing,” she said.

Newin Sinsiri, ADB country director for Myanmar, said Myanmar, with mitigated risks, should be able to stay on a steady economic growth path in the medium-term.

“Myanmar should be able to leverage limited public resources by effectively engaging development partners, foreign investors, and the domestic private sector [in order] to help finance its staggering infrastructure requirements, narrow its regional socioeconomic disparities, and support the long-term development agenda,” he said.