The baht opened at 33.50 to the US dollar on Thursday, unchanged from Wednesday’s closing rate.
The Thai currency is likely to move between 33.45 and 33.55 to the greenback during the day, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
Poon said that the baht is likely to swing sideways while the Omicron situation might pressure the baht to weaken.
However, foreign investors did not worry about the Omicron situation and continued to invest in Thai stocks this week.
Moreover, Poon said that the baht might strengthen because investors are selling gold while the dollar is weakening. He speculated the baht will be at between 33.40 to 33.50 to the dollar at the end of the year.
In 2022, Poon said the baht is likely to swing sideways at the beginning of the year due to the Omicron situation.
He said the baht is likely to strengthen in the second half of 2022 if the tourism sector greatly recovers while foreign investors invest in Thai assets.
Poon added the baht could reach the level between 31.75 to 32.00 to the dollar.
Krungsri Securities forecast the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on Thursday (December 30) would fluctuate between 1,645-1,660 points.
It said the index still gained positive sentiment from relief in Omicron concerns, rising oil prices in response to the decline in US oil storage and hopes over Thailand economic recovery next year.
However, it predicted that mass sell-offs of shares to reduce risks during the New Year holidays would pressure the index.
It also recommended buying of the following companies’ shares as an investment strategy:
HMPRO, CPN, CRC, VGI, SYNEX, COM7 and JMART, which are domestic play stocks.
RCL, LEO, III, WICE, SONIC and JWD, which benefit from rising freight rate.
EA, GPSC, AMATA, WHA, AH and SAT, which benefit from the government’s support on electric vehicles.
PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL and SPRC, which benefit from rising oil price and gross refining margin.
BBL, TTB, KTB and KBANK, which benefit from news of interest rate hike.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,653.33 on Wednesday, up 11.81 points or 0.72 per cent. Transactions totalled 72.56 billion baht with an index high of 1,654.98 and a low of 1,641.75.
The index gained for the second consecutive day after rising by 5.02 points or 0.31 per cent on Tuesday.
The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were DELTA, KBANK, SCB, EA, AOT, CPF, MAKRO, PTT, GPSC and NV.
Other Asian indices were down with one exception:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 28,906.88, down 162.28 points or 0.56 per cent.
China’s Shanghai SE Composite closed at 3,597.00, down 33.11 points or 0.91 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component closed at 14,653.82, down 184.05 points or 1.24 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 23,086.54, down 194.02 points or 0.83 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,993.29, down 26.95 points or 0.89 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 18,248.28, up 51.47 points or 0.28 per cent.
The daily consumption of fuel in Thailand fell 4.6 per cent in the first 11 months of the year compared to the same period in 2020.
The Department of Energy Business contributed the drop to reduced air travel amid worries over the spreading Covid-19 Omicron variant, which has caused the usage of Jet A1 fuel for commercial aircraft to plunge nearly 40 per cent year on year.
Department director-general Nantika Thangsupanich said on Tuesday that the daily consumption of Jet A1, diesel, benzene, kerosene and natural gas (NGV) fuels had dropped by 39.9 per cent, 9.3 per cent, 5 per cent, 6.2 per cent and 19.6 per cent year on year, respectively.
“Only stove oil and LPG [liquefied petroleum gas] saw increased usage of 14.7 per cent and 7.7 per cent year on year, respectively,” she said.
“The average daily consumption of benzene from January to November stood at 28.59 million litres per day, down 9.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2020,” she said. “However, consumption in November rose to 30.53 million litres per day from 28.56 million litres in October, thanks to the easing of lockdown measures and reopening of selected tourist provinces from November 1.”
Nantika added that diesel consumption in November also rose, at 3.5 per cent from the previous month to 71.87 million litres per day, thanks to increasing economic activities that prompted many businesses to use diesel to generate electricity.
Meanwhile, the average consumption of LPG rose by 7.7 per cent to 16.5 million kg daily due to increased use of the gas in petrochemical and industrial sectors.
The price of gold dropped by THB100 in morning trade on Wednesday.
A9.24am report from the Gold Traders Association showed the buying price of gold bar at THB28,600 per baht weight and selling price at THB28,700, while the buying and selling price of gold ornaments is THB28,091.48 and THB29,200, respectively.
At close on Tuesday, the buying price of gold bar was THB28,700 per baht weight and selling price THB28,800, while gold ornaments were THB28,182.44 and THB29,300, respectively.
The spot gold price on Wednesday morning was hovering around US$1,806 (THB60,623) per ounce after Comex gold at close on Tuesday rose by $2.1 to $1,810.9 per ounce due to support from the fall in US government bond yields and the returning to buy gold during the New Year festival.
The baht opened at 33.53 to the US dollar on Wednesday, strengthening from Tuesday’s closing rate of 33.57.
The Thai currency is likely to move between 33.45 and 33.60 to the greenback during the day, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
Poon said that the baht is likely to fluctuate. He said the baht might slightly weaken if the number of Covid-19 patients is continuously increasing.
He speculated that the baht will not weaken much and swing sideways in the range at 33.50 to the dollar because the market is in a risk-on state and cause the dollar to swing sideways or go down.
He said that the baht might strengthen more if the gold price reaches near the level of 1,810 dollars per ounce.
Poon added that the baht should strengthen or swing sideways in the short term according to the technical sign.
The baht key resistance level would be from 33.70 to 33.80 to the dollar, which is the level that exporters are waiting to close the risk. Meanwhile, the baht support level is at 33.40 to the dollar.
Poon added that the number of transactions at the end of the year is reducing so the currency market is likely to fluctuate.
Krungsri Securities forecast the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on Wednesday (December 29) would fluctuate between 1,635-1,650 points.
It said the index still gained positive sentiment from the recent study, stating that Omicron patients developed mild symptoms compared to other variants.
Mass buy-ups of Super Savings Funds and Retirement Mutual Funds to gain tax exemption and window dressing at the yearend would also help boost the index, it added.
“However, the index would be under pressure due to the change in Thailand Futures Exchange series and foreign fund flow slowdown,” Krungsri Securities said.
It also recommended buying of the following companies’ shares as an investment strategy:
HMPRO, CPN, CRC, VGI, SYNEX, COM7 and JMART, which are domestic play stocks.
RCL, LEO, III, WICE, SONIC and JWD, which benefit from rising freight rate.
EA, GPSC, AMATA, WHA, AH and SAT, which benefit from the government’s support on electric vehicles.
PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL and SPRC, which benefit from rising oil price and gross refining margin.
Gold edged higher as investors assessed the resilience of the global economic recovery, with Covid-19 cases hitting a pandemic record.
More than 1.44 million infections worldwide on Monday smashed the previous high after factoring out a statistical blip in Turkey last year. While the highly-transmissible omicron is spreading rapidly around the world, studies suggest that illness caused by the new strain isn’t as severe as in previous waves.
Bullion is heading for its first annual loss in three years as central banks start to dial back pandemic-era stimulus to contain inflation. The S&P 500 notched its 69th record close of 2021 on Monday, suggesting investors remain relatively sanguine about risks from omicron.
The U.K. said it won’t introduce stricter Covid-19 restrictions in England before the end of the year despite a surge in cases, while the U.S. cut the recommended isolation time for Americans with the virus to five days from 10 days.
“Gold has turned rangebound near $1,810 an ounce, reflecting the relative stability in the U.S. dollar index and bond yields amid a lack of fresh triggers,” said Madhavi Mehta, a senior analyst at Kotak Securities Ltd. “Virus concerns have subsided, however rising cases and restrictions to limit the spread is a cause of concern.”
Spot gold advanced 0.2% to $1,815.57 an ounce at 10:15 a.m. in London, gaining for a fifth day. Bullion is still down more than 4% this year. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%. Silver and platinum edged higher, while palladium fell 0.7%.
“The sideways trend will continue in the $1,750 to $1,820 range,” said Victor Foo, chief executive officer of Singapore Precious Metals Exchange. “Gold will face some resistance above $1,815 and moving forwards will continue to struggle at these levels unless the dollar moves sharply lower.”
Copper futures for March dropped 0.4% on the Comex after closing at a two-month high on Monday.
Bitcoin slid below $50,000, a level some analysts view as key for assessing the largest cryptocurrencys outlook heading into 2022.
The token fell as much as 4.5% on Tuesday and was trading at about $49,300 as of 8:40 a.m. in New York. Ether, the second-largest coin, and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index were also in the red, with each falling more than 3%. Smaller tokens such as Solana, Cardano, Polkadot and meme token Dogecoin also lost some ground Tuesday, according to tracker CoinGecko.
Investors have retreated from the most speculative corners of global markets of late, worried that an ebbing tide of central bank stimulus could spell trouble. Just how exposed Bitcoin and the wider crypto universe is to that risk is the subject of heated debate.
For Bitcoin, overall there isn’t “anything worrying at this point,” said Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at crypto exchange Luno in Singapore. The digital coin’s prospects remain “bullish” if the $48,000 to $49,000 level holds, he added.
Bitcoin has largely moved in tandem with riskier assets like U.S. stocks this year, though that pattern looks to be breaking down this month. The S&P 500 index of the largest companies is up about 5% so far in December, while Bitcoin has lost more than 10%. This is the first month since June that their performances have diverged.
Technical studies suggest something of a tipping point for Bitcoin following a retreat from an all-time high of almost $69,000 in November, which has trimmed its year-to-date advance to roughly 70%.
For instance, a study using Bollinger bands — a popular way of looking at volatility — shows the virtual coin touched the upper band in the past week but failed to close above it. For some, that suggests Bitcoin may face difficulty making gains in the short term.
Read more: Bitcoin Went Mainstream in 2021. It’s Just as Volatile as Ever
Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, an independent research firm focused on technical analysis, says Bitcoin’s next level of support is around $44,200, based on a Fibonacci retracement level.
The $50,000 level isn’t as important in her view “but it does hold psychological significance,” she said. “Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, and seems to be reacting to the short-term overbought condition.”
U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days amid a rotation out of megacap tech shares.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, pulling back from the benchmark’s 69th record close reached on Monday. The Nasdaq 100 retreated on turnarounds in four-day rallies for the likes of Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stayed in the green thanks to reopening beneficiaries such as Walt Disney Co. and Boeing Co.
Trading was choppy as moves were exaggerated by thin volumes, with shares changing hands in the major benchmarks about a third below daily averages for the past 30 days. Max Gokhman, chief investment officer at AlphaTrAI, attributed today’s reversal to gravity.
“The bump we saw on Monday didn’t have a clear catalyst, so we’re giving some of that back today,” he said. “I don’t think today’s pullback portends further declines, but this week’s seasonally low volume mixed with unseasonably higher volatility at the individual stock level means that one errant headline could give us a significant move in either direction as we get into the last stretch of 2021.”
Global shares are on course for a third year of double-digit returns, powered by the U.S. surge. Analysts remain bullish on earnings forecasts even amid coronavirus waves and a shift by some key central banks toward tighter monetary policy to fight high inflation.
“My sense is investors got too complacent over the last few days,” said Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners. “Value investors might have noticed the S&P creeping toward a 30% year-to-date move and decided to trim some expensive stocks.”
A tidal wave of omicron infections lifted global Covid-19 cases to a daily all-time high on Monday, meanwhile investors have taken some comfort from studies suggesting omicron causes less severe illness. A University of Oxford immunologist said the omicron variant is not “the same disease we were seeing a year ago,” reinforcing reports about the strain’s milder nature.
“What we’re seeing with each of these variants is they’re just not as severe,” said Anderson Lafontant, Miracle Mile Advisors senior advisor on Bloomberg TV. “One area that we like a lot is energy. We’re viewing this as a reopening play.”
Read more: CDC Pares Omicron View to a Still-Dominant 59% of U.S. Cases
Data Tuesday showed the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey rose in December, beating estimates, with the prior reading revised higher, while growth in U.S. home prices cooled for a third straight month in October.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin gave up a recent advance to slide below the $50,000 level, suggesting investors in the riskiest corners of global markets are becoming more circumspect.
What to watch this week:
–U.S. initial jobless claims, Thursday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
–The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of closing
–The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
–The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
–The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%
–The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
–The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
–The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1291
–The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3419
–The Japanese yen was little changed at 114.81 per dollar
Bonds
–The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 1.46%
–Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.24%
Commodities
–West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $75.98 a barrel
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