Thailand’s export industry has shown continuous growth for the first 11 months of this year, with revenue rising by 16.4 per cent at US$246.243 billion.
Imports, meanwhile, came in at $242.32 billion marking a rise of 29.4 per cent.
Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit said on Monday that exports in November alone came in at $23.647 billion, marking a 24.7 per cent increase, while imports stood at $22.63 billion, up by 20.5 per cent.
The minister put these positive figures down to the recovery of key trading partners like the US and the easing of lockdown measures in Europe.
He also said the improvement in the export sector has subsequently increased employment levels.
However, Jurin added that the Omicron variant may cast a pall on global trade, though the ministry is still confident Thailand will meet its export growth target of 15 per cent.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,615.80 on Monday, down 25.93 points or 1.58 per cent. Transactions totalled 82.35 billion baht with an index high of 1,633.80 and a low of 1,612.96.
The index fell for the second consecutive day after dropping by 3.59 points or 0.22 per cent on Friday.
The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were EA, KBANK, SCB, CPALL, JMT, GPSC, ADVANC, PTT, JMART and AOT.
Other Asian indices were on the fall:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 27,937.81, down 607.87 points or 2.13 per cent.
China’s Shanghai SE Composite closed at 3,593.60, down 38.76 points or 1.07 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component closed at 14,569.18, down 298.37 points or 2.01 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 22,744.86, down 447.77 points or 1.93 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,963.00, down 54.73 points or 1.81 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 17,669.11, down 143.48 points or 0.81 per cent.
The baht opened at 33.37 to the US dollar on Monday, weakening from the previous closing of 33.35.
The Thai currency is likely to move between 33.30 and 33.45 during the day and between 33.25 and 33.50 during the week, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
Poon said that the baht might strengthen if the Monetary Policy Committee speculated that the Thai economy will get better and the gold price increase.
The baht might swing sideways or slightly strengthen if the currency market has no clear movement at the end of the year.
The key support level for the baht would be at 33.3 to the dollar, which is the level at which importers are waiting to buy the dollar. Meanwhile, exporters are waiting to sell the dollar when the baht reaches 33.5 to the dollar.
Poon added that the dollar might swing sideways as the currency market has no clear movement at the end of the year which is the week before the Christmas holiday. The market also knew all monetary policies from central banks.
Moreover, he said the dollar will be supported by the need for safe-haven assets if the market is in a risk-off state.
The previous week, the currency market was volatile and pressured by the tight monetary policies from central banks especially the US Federal Reserve that is preparing to increase the policy three times next year.
Poon suggests monitoring the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting which might increase the policy interest rate and speculate that the Thai economic recovery will be better.
The price of gold rose by THB100 in morning trade on Monday.
AGold Traders Association report at 9.26am said the buying price of a gold bar was THB28,450 per baht weight and selling price THB28,550, while the buying and selling price of gold ornaments is THB27,939.88 and THB29,050, respectively.
At close on Saturday, the buying price of a gold bar was THB28,350 per baht weight and selling price THB28,450, while gold ornaments were THB27,833.76 and THB28,950, respectively.
The spot gold price on Monday morning hovered around US$1,801 (THB60,351) per ounce after Comex gold at close on Friday rose by $6.7, breaking the $1,800 level, to $1,804.9 per ounce due to support from buying gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over the impact of Omicron Covid-19 virus spread.
Krungsri Securities forecast the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on Monday (December 20) would fall to between 1,625-1,630 points.
It said the index is currently under pressure due to uncertainty over the outbreak of Omicron Covid-19 variant in Europe after the Netherlands imposed lockdown to curb the virus.
Meanwhile, central banks’ move to raise the interest rate to deal with higher inflation and news of stock trading tariff would also pressure the index, it added.
It also recommended buying of the following companies’ shares as an investment strategy: ▪︎ COM7, SYNEX, BCH, CHG, MEGA, XO, TU and STGT, which benefit from Covid-19 outbreak. ▪︎ RCL, LEO, III, WICE, SONIC and JWD, which benefit from rising freight rate. ▪︎ EA, GPSC, AMATA, WHA, AH and SAT, which benefit from the government’s support on electric vehicles.
High inflation rates arent bad news for everyone. They can be helpful for debtors — which in todays world economy means almost everybody.
In the second quarter of this year, measures of household and business debt as a share of economic output saw some of the steepest drops on record in several advanced economies, according to data published last week by the Bank for International Settlements.
That’s not because consumers and companies were borrowing less, in dollars, euros or pounds — which is what happened in the drawn-out recession that followed the 2008 crisis. In fact, they’re borrowing more. It’s just that the combination of rapid post-lockdown growth and accelerating inflation meant that their liabilities shrank by comparison with the overall size of the economy as it’s measured in those same currencies.
To be sure, declines over one or two quarters don’t make much of a dent in overall debt burdens that soared earlier in the pandemic, as central banks extended credit safety-nets to business, while mortgage lending took off amid a housing boom.
Almost every kind of debt remains larger, as a share of the economy, than it was at the start of 2020, and well above historical norms.
The U.S. corporate borrowing spree, in particular, has raised some red flags — and while companies overall are posting fat pandemic profits, aggregate numbers don’t tell the whole story: the businesses with debt problems may not be the ones that are raking in the cash. Higher interest rates — the coming antidote to inflation — will make debt-servicing harder.
Still, the data are a reminder that rising prices can have some beneficial side effects — which is one reason why central banks spent the decade before Covid-19 trying to engineer higher inflation rates, even if they’re now pivoting in the opposite direction after a bigger-than-expected spike.
What About Governments?
The BIS numbers show a drop in ratios of government debt to GDP in the most recent quarter, too. That’s been the fastest-growing type of borrowing in the pandemic, just as it’s been ever since the 2008 crash.
Public debt may be less of a worry though, because in the developed world it’s generally proved to be less combustible than the private kind.
Debt crises in advanced economies over recent decades haven’t been the result of governments borrowing too much in their own currencies, liabilities they can always meet. Instead, they’ve been triggered by high levels of private debt — like the bursting of Japan’s corporate credit bubble in the 1990s, and the U.S. mortgage meltdown the following decade — or public debt in countries that don’t issue their own currency, such as Greece.
With most economists expecting relatively high rates of inflation, and strong growth in real output, to continue into 2022, the erosion of debt burdens may have further to go.
But in the U.S., at least. it will require an extended period of rising pay for workers, especially lower down the income ladder, to reflate the economy in a way that can ease debt burdens for households, says Daniel Alpert, a founding managing partner at Westwood Capital. He’s skeptical that will happen.
Alpert, the author of a recent paper titled “Inflation in the 21st Century,” says high debt levels for ordinary Americans are the result of decades in which income shifted from labor to capital. “What’s going to drive the longer, sustained type of inflation you really need to lessen the burden on households?” he says. “The answer is sustained wage improvement, which I don’t think we’re going to get.”
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,641.73 on Friday, down 3.59 points or 0.22 per cent. Transactions totalled 96.45 billion baht with an index high of 1,646.85 and a low of 1,637.09.
The index fell after rising by 21.66 points or 1.33 per cent on Thursday.
The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were EA, SCGP, KBANK, GPSC, AOT, SCB, CPALL, PTT, JAS and CPF.
Other Asian indices were mixed:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 28,545.68, down 520.64 points or 1.79 per cent.
China’s Shanghai SE Composite closed at 3,632.36, down 42.65 points or 1.16 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component closed at 14,867.55, down 245.25 points or 1.62 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 23,192.63, down 282.87 points or 1.20 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 3,017.73, up 11.32 points or 0.38 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 17,812.59, up 26.85 points or 0.15 per cent.
The baht opened at 33.41 to the US dollar on Friday, strengthening from Thursday’s closing rate of 33.42.
The Thai currency is likely to move between 33.35 and 33.45 to the greenback during the day, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
Poon said that the baht is likely to strengthen slightly because the dollar is weakening. Moreover, the gold price is increasing to near the level of 1,800 dollars per ounce which will support the baht to strengthen.
Meanwhile, foreign investors are investing in Thai stocks as they recently bought Thai stocks for 4.7 billion baht total. However, They will not invest in the baht much more until they saw how mergers and acquisitions transactions at the end of this year go.
Poon confirmed that the baht is likely to strengthen in the short term according to the technical analysis.
He added that the baht resistance level would be at 33.30 to the dollar while the support level would be at 33.50 which was the weakest level before the Fed meeting.
The price of gold rose by THB150 in morning trade on Friday.
A9.25am report from the Gold Traders Association showed the buying price of gold bar at THB28,350 per baht weight and selling price at THB28,450, while the buying and selling price of gold ornaments is THB27,833.76 and THB28,950, respectively.
At close on Tuesday, the buying price of gold bar was THB28,200 per baht weight and selling price THB28,300, while gold ornaments were THB27,697.32 and THB28,800, respectively.
Comex gold at close on Thursday surged by $33.7 or 1.91 per cent to $1,798.2 per ounce which hit the highest closing level since December 2, due to support from the depreciation of the US dollar and from investors buying the precious metal.
Krungsri Securities forecast the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on Friday (December 17) would fluctuate between 1,635-1,660 points.
It said the index gained positive sentiment from US Federal Reserve’s move to maintain interest rate and taper its quantitative easing programme as many investors expected.
“However, uncertainty over the Covid-19 outbreak in Europe and fund flow volatility due to the resistance level at 1,660 points would pressure the index,” Krungsri Securities said.
It also recommended buying of the following companies’ shares as an investment strategy:
▪︎ AWC, BANPU and HANA, which would be listed in SET50 Index.
▪︎ BLA, BPP, EPG, KEX, RCL, SIRI, STARK and TTA, which would be listed in SET100 Index.
▪︎ EA, GPSC, AMATA, WHA, AH and SAT, which benefit from the government’s support on electric vehicles.
▪︎ BBL, TTB, KTB and KBANK, which benefit from news of interest rate hike.
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