The Bank of Thailand (BOT) announced on Wednesday that it had maintained its estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 at 0.7 per cent expansion, but increased its forecast of 2022 GDP to 3.9 per cent from its August estimation of 3.7 per cent.
“The expansion of Thailand’s economy has been slowed down by the spreading Delta variant of Covid-19 since earlier this year, but the economy is estimated to gradually recover in late 2021 and continue this trend throughout 2022, thanks to more comprehensive vaccine distribution and easing of lockdown measures,” said Thitanan Mullikamas, BOT’s assistant governor of monetary policy and secretary-general of the Monetary Policy Committee.
“Despite the economic recovery trend, there are still factors that could hinder projected economic growth, such as the new mutated variant of the virus, the confidence of people and businesses after lockdown measures are lifted, and the supply disruption caused by the impact of the outbreak,” he pointed out.
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The central bank also lowered its estimate on private consumption in 2021 from 2.5 per cent expansion down to zero per cent, but increased its 2022 estimation from 3.4 per cent expansion to 5.7 per cent. Furthermore, it adjusted down the estimation of total foreign tourists in 2021 from 700,000 to 200,000 visitors. The estimated number of foreign tourists in 2022 was also lowered from 10 million to 6 million.
As automakers scramble to make electric vehicles with longer ranges and speedier charging times, the chip industry has a message for them: Youre doing it wrong.
Semiconductor companies are urging EV makers to ditch traditional silicon chips and embrace materials that will make cars more efficient, helping ease consumers’ “range anxiety” and someday making recharges as quick as a gas-station fill-up. But there isn’t an agreement yet on which approach to use. Silicon carbide is the front-runner, with gallium nitride emerging as a key contender.
What are these new materials? Well, silicon carbide – as the name suggests – is a combination of two elements, silicon and carbon. And it does a better job as a power converter, meaning chips using the material can move energy around with less of it getting lost along the way. The same is true of gallium nitride, which is made of gallium and nitrogen and – like silicon carbide – has a distinct edge over traditional silicon. Proponents say it could cut charging time in half.
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Choosing the right technology has especially high stakes as the auto industry undergoes its biggest transformation in more than a century. Manufacturers around the world are racing to ditch internal combustion engines, and even icons of the gasoline age like Ford’s Mustang and the GMC Hummer are getting versions with batteries.
Along the way, chips have become ever more critical to how a vehicle works, spanning everything from the powertrain to the airbags. That’s become painfully apparent this year as carmakers have had to limit production and leave dealer lots empty because they can’t find enough silicon. But getting automakers on board with the newer technologies is critical to raising EVs to the next level.
“It’s a big learning curve for the carmakers,” said Jean-Christophe Eloy, head of Yole Développement, a semiconductor analysis firm in France. “A good battery, a good inverter and a good electric motor doesn’t give you a good electric car.”
The good news, Eloy says, is that Tesla – a company that prodded the industry to embrace EVs in the first place – could help spur this transition as well.
Tesla is one of the first major adopters of silicon-carbide chips, supplied by STMicroelectronics NV, Eloy said. And Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has touted the technology as a key advantage of his cars.
With silicon carbide, watts of power can be crammed into the battery much more quickly, cutting charge times. And it provides for longer ranges because there’s less leakage – wasted power – as a car taps the energy needed to drive motors. Infineon Technologies, the biggest maker of automotive chips, expects silicon carbide to exceed more than 30% of the market in electric-vehicle power chips by 2025.
“Silicon carbide can bring a significant advantage, literally a 5% to 10% improvement in range,” according to Stephan Zizala, the head of Infineon’s automotive high-power solutions group.
Some manufacturers are already sold on the concept. General Motors is using silicon-carbide devices in its Ultium EV battery platform, the basis of all of its future electric vehicles. Toyota Motor Corp., which pioneered hybrid vehicles with the Prius, uses silicon carbide in the hydrogen-powered Toyota Mirai, and its supplier Denso Corp. has built the chips into other vehicle lines.
Stellantis, formed from the merger of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and French rival PSA Group earlier this year, said recently that it may use silicon carbide in power inverters that will be key to mass manufacturing a new generation of electric vehicles globally.
But some companies, such as GM, are hedging their bets. They’re also looking at gallium nitride, or GaN, for future use.
Gallium nitride is a newer entrant – and it’s not yet clear what role it will play. Infineon expects it to complement other technologies. Others are positioning it as more of a rival to silicon carbide. BMW earlier this month signed a deal to secure $250 million of such chips from GaN Systems Inc.
Gallium-nitride chips can cut the time it typically takes to charge a car to 4.7 hours from 11.3 hours, saving 70% on energy in the process. It also could boost the vehicle’s range by 5% and use fewer batteries. That’s according to startup Navitas Semiconductor Inc., which is telling investors that gallium-nitride chips will account for 16% of the power semiconductor market by 2026, up from less than 1% last year.
Carmakers have taken years to warm up to the new technologies. When silicon carbide was first offered to auto manufacturers more than a decade ago, they shunned it as “horribly expensive,” said Michael Duhaime, vice president of JJE North America, a Chinese-owned maker of electric drivetrains in Troy, Michigan.
The typical reaction at the time: “Why would I do that? It’s crazy,” he said. Now it’s making its way into premium vehicles, where cost is outweighed by the performance benefits.
There are still some painful trade-offs, though. Traditional silicon-based chips are made in the billions each year, and the technology’s 50 years of dominance has created a massive global infrastructure to produce it. That’s brought costs down. Silicon-carbide wafers, the basic material on which the new chips are built, are produced by only a few companies, such as Cree Inc., in a process that’s still difficult and expensive.
One obstacle is the material itself, which has to be grown from seed crystals in a chemical process. There are relatively few crystals available that will produce the purity required. Any impurities can result in wafers and chips that are less efficient. In a sign of how scarce the materials are, Cree rival On Semiconductor Corp. agreed to pay $415 million last month for GT Advanced Technologies, acquiring its supplier of silicon carbide. That deal lets it secure access to the raw material.
Silicon-carbide components could add an extra $200 to the cost of a vehicle, according to an estimate by Cree. But boosters of the new technology say the cost will quickly be recouped because cars won’t need as many batteries.
And that speaks to the need for carmakers to put more thought into the chips they use, Eloy said.
“If you want to save costs, if you want to increase range, if you want to do all of this optimization, you need to have your hands in the semiconductors,” he said.
Gold climbed from the lowest in almost seven weeks as Treasury yields eased following dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. yield declined after touching the highest since June on Tuesday, boosting the appeal of non-interest bearing bullion. The dollar rose again to the highest since November.
During a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Powell maintained that the current high level of inflation in the U.S. should be expected to dissipate when supply-chain issues are resolved, adding that the economy was still far from full employment. The comments reassured investors that rate hikes were still a long way off.
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Still, Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he sees “upside risks” to inflation and the central bank should be prepared in case price pressures persist for longer than expected. Earlier this week, Fed Governor Lael Brainard and New York Fed President John Williams both said it may soon be time to scale back asset purchases.
Gold is heading for its biggest monthly loss since June as more central banks start signaling a pullback in stimulus measures used to cushion the economic impact of the pandemic. Last week, Powell said the Fed could begin scaling back asset purchases in November and complete the process by mid-2022. The Bank of England has left the prospect of a 2021 rate hike open, while Norway’s central bank began tightening policy last week.
“Set against rising real rates and a strengthening U.S. dollar, we don’t see inflation as strong enough to outweigh policy developments,” analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note. “We see lower prices ahead,” averaging $1,621 an ounce next year, they added.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,743.60 an ounce at 1 p.m. in London, after dropping as low as $1,728.18 on Tuesday, the lowest since Aug. 11. Silver slipped, while platinum steadied and palladium advanced. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index strengthened 0.2% after climbing 0.5% Tuesday.
The rally in technology shares fizzled out, weighing on the broader stock market.
The S&P 500 pared most of its earlier gains as a drop in tech offset an advance in defensive industries like utilities and consumer staples. The dollar rose to the highest level since November 2020, while Treasuries fluctuated.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his counterparts at the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England voiced cautious optimism Wednesday that supply-chain disruptions lifting inflation rates around the world would ultimately prove temporary. Traders remained alert to the potential for market disruption should politicians in Washington fail to raise the debt-ceiling in time to avoid a default on U.S. obligations.
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“Jitters surrounding elevated levels of inflation and slowing growth are likely to remain for some time,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial-markets analyst at City Index. “U.S. debt-ceiling discussions could be in focus amid a quiet economic calendar.”
The U.S. Treasury is likely to exhaust its ability to borrow as soon as late October, according to the Congressional Budget Office, in the latest warning to lawmakers following their failed efforts to address the debt ceiling this week.
QuickTake: What’s the Debt Ceiling and Will the U.S. Raise It?
A majority of investors harbor fears of persistently high inflation, with a 20% pullback in stocks seen as more likely than a 20% rally, according to a Citigroup Inc. survey of clients. Though most expected modest gains next year in the S&P 500, price pressures and a policy reversal by the Fed are big risks, according to the survey of more than 90 pension, mutual and hedge funds this month.
A gauge of U.S. pending home sales rebounded in August to a seven-month high as prospective buyers welcomed more attractive pricing and additional inventory. The figures suggest housing activity is firming after retreating from the record-high levels seen last year.
Some corporate highlights:
– Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is weighing an acquisition of Evolent Health Inc., the health-care group that has been under activist investor pressure to consider a sale, according to people familiar with the matter.
– Merck & Co. has agreed to buy drugmaker Acceleron Pharma Inc. for $180 per share, according to people familiar with the matter.
– Boeing Co. rallied after the aerospace giant was upgraded to outperform at Bernstein on prospects of a travel rebound.
– Morgan Stanley slumped after Oppenheimer downgraded the shares, citing a lack of upside to its valuation.
Here are some events to watch this week:
– House Financial Services Committee hearing on the Fed, Treasury’s pandemic response, Thursday
– China Caixin manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, Thursday
– Univ. of Michigan sentiment, ISM manufacturing, U.S. construction spending, spending/personal income, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
– – –
– The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
– The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
– The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.3%
– The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
– – –
– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index rose 0.7%
– The euro fell 0.8% to $1.1592
– The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.3416
– The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 111.98 per dollar
– – –
– The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 1.53%
– Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to -0.21%
– Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.99%
– – –
– West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $74.60 a barrel
Thailand has agreed to open a new border crossing with Cambodia to boost trade, Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit said on Wednesday.
The crossing at the newly constructed Nong Ian-Stung Bot-Ban Friendship Bridge in Sa Kaeo province will be opened early as Thailand has yet to complete construction of its checkpoint. In the meantime, goods will be transported through the Ning Ian checkpoint by container only, said Jurin, reporting on his talks with Cambodia’s Tourism Ministry.
Cambodia also urged Thailand to cut red tape at border checkpoints so that trade could move faster.
Thailand agrees to open new border point with Cambodia
Meanwhile, Jurin asked the Cambodian government to help promote about 220 Thai products via Cambodia’s klangthai.com e-commerce platform.
Thailand also pledged to support Cambodia when it succeeds Brunei as chair of Asean in 2022, he added.
Cambodia is Thailand’s 6th largest trading partner in Asean and 26th in the world. Thai exports to Cambodia rose 10.8 per cent in the first eight months of 2021, to 141 billion baht. The rise was driven by exports of refined oil (+67.5%), sugar (+63.6%), automobiles (+36.2%) and chemicals (+34.1%). Cambodia’s main exports to Thailand include vegetables, fruits, cassava, cashew nuts, bananas, chilli, ores and precious stones.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,616.98 on Wednesday, up 0.48 points or 0.03 per cent. Transactions totalled 93.11 billion baht with an index high of 1,622.62 and a low of 1,604.46.
The index rebounded slightly after dropping 0.22 per cent on Tuesday and 0.68 per cent on Monday.
In the morning session, Krungsri Securities forecast Wednesday’s index would fall to between 1,600 and 1,610 points due to uncertainty over rising US inflation and the Federal Reserve signalling it would taper its quantitative easing and raise the interest rate sooner than expected.
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The SET Index would also be pressured by conflict in US Congress over the draft budget and debt ceiling hike, as well as changes to trading on the TFEX futures exchange, Krungsri Securities said.
The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were KBANK, SCB, TRUE, PTT, BBL, SCC, TIDLOR, DELTA, KTC and PTTEP.
Other Asian indices were down with one exception:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 29,544.29, down 639.67 points or 2.12 per cent.
China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 3,536.29, down 65.92 points or 1.83 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 14,079.02, down 234.80 points or 1.64 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,663.50, up 163.11 points or 0.67 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI closed at 3,060.27, down 37.65 points or 1.22 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX closed at 16,855.46, down 325.98 points or 1.90 per cent.
The price of gold rose by THB50 in morning trade on Wednesday.
AGold Traders Association report at 9.26am said the buying price of a gold bar was THB27,800 per baht weight and selling price THB27,900, while gold ornaments cost THB27,303.16 and THB28,400, respectively.
At close on Tuesday, the buying price of a gold bar was THB27,750 per baht weight and selling price THB27,850, while gold ornaments cost THB27,257.68 and THB28,350, respectively.
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The spot gold price on Wednesday morning was moving around US$1,738 (THB58,883) per ounce after Comex gold at close on Tuesday dropped by $14.50 to $1,737.50 per ounce, hitting a seven-week low as it was pressured by the appreciation of the dollar and a rise in US government bond yields.
The Hong Kong gold price meanwhile dropped by HK$50 to $16,110 (THB70,105) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index fell by 5.21 points or 0.32 per cent to 1,611.29 on Wednesday morning, witnessing a high of 1,612.88 and a low of 1,604.46 in opening trade.
Krungsri Securities predicted the day’s index would fall to between 1,600 and 1,610 points due to uncertainty over higher US inflation and the Federal Reserve signalling it would taper its quantitative easing and raise the interest rate sooner than expected.
Meanwhile, the conflict in approval of the US draft budget act and a debt ceiling hike, as well as TFEX’s move to change the series in the futures exchange market would pressure the index, Krungsri Securities said.
It recommended purchasing of the following companies’ shares as an investment strategy:
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▪︎ Hana, KCE, TU, CPF, GFPT, Asian and NER, which benefit from a weakening baht.
▪︎ Banpu, Lanna, DCC, Cotto and Tasco, which have gained specific positive sentiment.
The SET Index closed at 1,616.50 on Tuesday, down 3.52 points or 0.22 per cent. Transactions totalled THB98.94 billion with an index high of 1,626.55 and a low of 1,614.31.
The baht opened at 33.84 to the US dollar on Wednesday, weakening from Tuesday’s closing rate of 33.77, the weakest in four years.
The Thai currency is likely to move between 33.75 and 33.95 during the day, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
Poon said the baht might continue to weaken in the short term as it heads past the key resistance level of 33.50 to the US dollar.
The baht will fluctuate across this resistance level of 33.85 to 33.40 while the dollar strengthens, he said, expecting exporters to sell the US currency when the baht reached that level.
Poon advised investors to watch the Monetary Policy Committee meeting this afternoon. The weakening of the baht might slow down if the committee sticks to its policy interest rate with positive expectations of an economic recovery next year.
OPEC sees oil demand continuing to grow to the middle of next decade, even as world leaders prepare for another attempt to avert catastrophic climate change.
Global fuel consumption will fully recover from its pandemic slump by 2023, and will keep growing until it hits a plateau shortly after 2035, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its latest long-term report. The forecasts suggest scant expectation that the COP26 conference to be held in Glasgow, Scotland, in just over four weeks will culminate in a quick pivot from fossil fuels.
“There are still considerable doubts as to whether all these ambitious climate-mitigation commitments will be met in the proposed timeframe,” the organization’s Vienna-based secretariat said. The group’s members include the biggest Middle East crude producers.
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Global oil demand suffered an unprecedented slump last year as travel and economic activity were curbed by efforts to battle the coronavirus. OPEC forecasts that consumption will rebound above 100 million barrels a day in 2023, and continue to advance to 107.9 million a day in 2035. The projections are little changed from last year’s report.
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook, published on Tuesday, echoes comments from group leader Saudi Arabia earlier this year that hopes to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 by slashing fossil fuel investments are a “La La Land” fantasy. While the report acknowledges that renewables are the fastest growing energy source, it projects they will account for just 10% of the world’s needs in 2045.
Before the current energy crunch that’s helped drive Brent crude above $80 a barrel and European natural gas prices to record highs, OPEC had started gradually restoring the output that it shuttered when the pandemic erupted last year. It expects to be a beneficiary of the coming revival in fuel use.
The oil industry is at a critical juncture. Some energy companies and traders say the lack of spending on fossil fuel projects amid the fight against climate change will result in a supply shock, potentially driving oil prices even higher. On the other hand, governments, society and investors are pushing companies to produce cleaner fuels.
Made up 13 nations that rely on petroleum sales to fund their budgets, OPEC is hardly a neutral observer. Others in the oil market, like the International Energy Agency and TotalEnergies, expect demand will hit a limit earlier, somewhere around the end of this decade.
Demand for OPEC’s combined crude oil and condensate supplies will climb from last year’s 30.7 million barrels a day to 42.7 million in 2045, according to the report. Its share of world oil markets will expand from 33% currently to 39% by that year. However, the organization gave no separate projections for its crude production — the component it uses to balance world supply and demand.
The group expects to initially face some competition from its key rival, the U.S. shale industry. American tight oil output will increase from last year’s average of 11.5 million barrels a day to 14.8 million in 2026. But OPEC expects that growth in shale will taper off toward the end of the next decade, clearing the way for the organization.
“The burden is expected to be on OPEC members to provide much of the oil to meet the world’s needs,” it said in the report.
Thailand agrees to open new border point with Cambodia
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