The Finance Ministry and state agencies are discussing the possibility of setting up a property fund to support loans for tourism and airline operators to combat the impact of Covid-19, said a Government House source.
The discussion concerns the size of the fund and related regulations as well as potential demand from investors, the source added.
Business operators may be allowed to use their assets, such as hotels, as collateral to back their loans from the fund, said the source.
Thai tourism operators are struggling with the Covid-19 fallout and absence of foreign tourists, with some finding it difficult to access bank loans.
To attract investors, the fund should offer a higher interest rate than banks’ deposit rate, the source said.
Brokerage firms expect the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) to move in a narrow range in December this year.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) strategist Natapon Khamthakrue expected the SET to move between 1,390 and 1,450 points amid hopes of foreign funds inflows, recovery in SET-listed companies’ performance, progress in developing a Covid-19 vaccine, rising oil price and the government’s economic stimulus measures.
He advised investors to buy stocks in laggard groups that pay high dividends, such as KKP and BBL, stocks that benefit from the Covid-19 vaccine development such as SHR and III, and stocks that will benefit from the government’s move to promote electric vehicles next year, such as CWT and NYT.
“The SET would face volatility after skyrocketing from positive news of a Covid-19 vaccine, so investors can buy stocks when the index falls to 1,370 points,” he said.
“If the political situation doesn’t escalate, we expect foreign funds to flow into the SET, as the index is still underperforming compared to other Asian indices.”
Trinity Securities research analyst Nuttachart Mekmasin expected the SET to move between 1,350 and 1,460 points amid mass buy-ups in value stocks.
He added that there was limited upside room for the SET due to high valuation, while foreign investors would sell risk assets to hold bonds at the end of this year.
“Investors should follow international factors, such as central banks’ meetings on December 15-16, as the stock market expects an additional quantitative easing programme, and the Opec+ move to not extend the cut in oil production would impact Thai stocks,” he said. He added that domestic political turmoil would pressure the index periodically.
For short-term investors, he advised speculating profits from value stocks, such as PTTGC, PTTEP and IVL, while warning that they should stop loss when the stock market faces a correction.
“For long-term investors, we advise monitoring the situation because the index may fall below 1,400 points and that would be an opportunity to buy stocks in the laggard group and those that benefit from the Covid-19 outbreak, such as STGT, KCE and XO,” he said.
Senior Tisco Securities strategist Apichat Poobunjirdkul expected the SET to fluctuate between 1,390 and 1,455 in December this year, as foreign investors would slow down their investment during the long holiday.
“Meanwhile, we have to follow the central banks’ meeting on whether they will maintain their monetary policies or not, and news of a Covid-19 vaccine on whether it would be approved by the middle of next month or not,” he said, adding that he didn’t expect the domestic political situation to cause an impact on the index.
He advised investors to make selective buys of stocks in laggard groups that pay 3-4 per cent dividend annually, as well as energy stocks such as KKP, EGCO and RATCH.
“However, the index would face correction due to the tight share prices until next year, so buying stocks when the index falls below 1,400 points would be a good option as well,” he added.
Investors have been advised to follow key domestic and international developments as a mix of these would impact the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index, the baht and gold price next week.
The SET Index on Friday closed at 1,437.78, up 4.22 points or 0.29 per cent, with transactions amounting to Bt77.32 billion, buoyed by positive news of a Covid-19 vaccine.
Institutional investors and securities accounts made net buys of Bt1.66 billion and Bt1.43 billion respectively, while foreign and individual investors made net sales of Bt498.52 million and Bt2.60 billion respectively.
An analyst at Kasikorn Securities expected the SET next week to move between 1,430 and 1,470, advising investors to follow the Thai government’s economic stimulus measures and the political situation, as well as the Covid-19 crisis, Brexit and the Opec+ meeting.
The baht closed at 30.29 to the US dollar on Friday.
A strategist at Kasikorn Research Centre expected the baht next week to move between 30.00 and 30.40 to the dollar. He advised investors to follow the Fed’s statement, the currency market’s response to president-elect Joe Biden’s economic team, the Covid-19 crisis, China and the euro-zone’s manufacturing and service purchasing managers’ index.
Gold price on Friday closed at US$1,810.13 per ounce, while in Thailand it closed at Bt25,950 per baht weight.
An analyst at YLG Bullion International said there was limited upside for the price to rise amid hopes of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine.
He said if gold price cannot rise above the resistance line between $1,818 and $1,821 per ounce, the price would fall to the support line between $1,794 and $1,800 per ounce.
“However, the price would rise to $1,833 per ounce if it can rise through the current resistance line, so we advise investors to buy the precious metal when the price falls and sell some of it when the price rises,” he said.
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Vildana Hajric · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS
U.S. stocks rose in to a record in thin post-holiday volume as investors assessed valuations with pandemic still raging in parts of Europe and the U.S. Oil retreated amid rising tensions among OPEC+ members.
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high after rallying 11% in November. Trading volume was only 60% of the average over the past year. The Nasdaq 100 index jumped 0.8%. The stock market closed at 1 p.m. in New York, while bond trading ends an hour later. Treasuries advanced and the dollar headed for a second weekly decline.
“If you start looking out over the horizon, there are a lot of things that have lined up incredibly well,” said Mark Stoeckle, a Boston-based fund manager at Adams Funds with $2.5 billion of assets. “You have the vaccines, you have a plan to get them out, you’ve got incredibly low interest rates for likely a very long time.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 index edged higher. The dollar weakened versus major peers. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 0.84%.
Global stocks are on track for the best month on record, up 13%, and that’s lifted valuations to near the highest in about 20 years. Still, sentiment remains fragile as the virus toll continues to rise in Europe and the U.S., while economic recoveries wobble. Investors are pinning their hopes on a swift rollout of vaccines, but the logistical challenges are considerable.
“To see whether the market will continue to have legs we will have to have confirmation of those vaccine hopes,” Nannette Hechler-Fayd’Herbe, Credit Suisse’s chief investment officer for international wealth management and global head of economics and research, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “So very quickly now we want to see approvals, we want to see production outlooks as far as the vaccines’ broader distribution is concerned.”
Political clarity has also driven risk assets this month, as President-elect Joe Biden continues his transition to power. President Donald Trump said he’ll relinquish power if the Electoral College affirms Biden’s win, but he signaled he may never formally concede defeat, and may skip the Democrat’s inauguration.
In China, data showed profits at industrial enterprises surged at the fastest pace in a single month in almost nine years in October, a further sign the country’s economic recovery is gathering pace.
Here are the main moves in markets:
– – –
– The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% at 1 p.m. in New York.
– The Stoxx Europe 600 index added 0.4%.
– The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 0.2%.
– The MSCI Emerging Markets index rose 0.1%.
– – –
– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index fell 0.2%.
– The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1955.
– The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3313.
– The yen was at 104.24 per dollar, up 0.2%.
– – –
– The yield on 10-year Treasuries four basis points to 0.84%.
– Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.59%.
– – –
– West Texas Intermediate crude decreased 0.7% to $45.38 a barrel.
By The NationThe Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,437.78 on Friday, up 4.22 points or 0.29 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt77 billion with an index high of 1,444.53 and a low of 1,429.43.
In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,425 and 1,445 amid hopes of foreign funds inflows.
“However, the SET’s tight valuation and signs of overbought stocks, together with uncertainty over pro-democracy protesters’ anti-government rally on Friday, will pressure the index,” he said.
The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were SCGP, GPSC, PTT, KBANK, DELTA, AOT, ADVANC, GULF, BANPU and EGCO.
As of 4.30pm, the price of oil dropped by US$0.63 or 1.38 per cent to $45.08 per barrel, while gold rose by $2.80 or 0.15 per cent, to $1,814 per ounce.
Other Asian indices were on the rise:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 26,644.71, up 107.40 points or 0.40 per cent.
China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,408.31, up 38.57 points or 1.14 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 3,408.31, up 38.57 points or 1.14 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 26,894.68, up 75.23 points or 0.28 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,633.45, up 7.54 points or 0.29 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 13,867.09, up 21.43 points or 0.15 per cent
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index fell by 2.76 points, or 0.19 per cent, to 1,430.80 in the morning session on Friday.
An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,425 and 1,445 amid hopes of foreign funds inflows.
“However SET’s tight valuation and signs of overbought stocks, together with uncertainty over pro-democracy protesters’ anti-government rally on Friday would pressure the index,” he said.
He recommended that investors buy:
▪︎ AMATA, WHA, SAT and AH that will benefit from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership pact.
▪︎ MINT, CENTEL and AOT that benefit from the ongoing Covid-19 vaccine development.
The SET Index closed at 1,433 on Thursday, up 17.84 points or 1.26 per cent, with total transactions amounting to Bt80 billion, due to rising oil price and foreign investors’ mass buy-ups of energy, electronics and tourism shares.
The price of gold dropped by Bt50 per baht weight in morning trade on Friday after rising by Bt50 per baht weight at close on Thursday, the Gold Traders Association reported.
As of 9.31am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,900 per baht weight and selling price Bt26,000 while gold ornaments were priced at Bt25,438.48 and Bt26,500, respectively.
At close on Thursday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,950 per baht weight and selling price Bt26,050 while gold ornaments were Bt25,483.96 and Bt26,550, respectively.
The New York gold market was closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day.
Attapon Rerkpiboon, chief executive officer and president of PTT Plc (PTT), told the Annual Petroleum Outlook Forum on Thursday that demand for fuel and energy had passed their lowest point and were increasing in line with the economic recovery. However, he added
that PTT had a crucial part to play in Thailand’s energy security and economic recovery after Covid-19 and said strategic plans for unforeseen changes are always necessary.
“PTT and the fuel company group realise that they must play an important role in building energy security for the country,” said Attapon.
“We must adjust to build strength and sustainability for organisations and countries to drive the country through this economic crisis by disseminating information on energy to society … A well-rounded understanding will strengthen Thai society and bring the greatest benefits to all sectors, both now and in the future.”
Bandhit Thamprajamchit, chairman of the Petroleum Refining Industry Club, called Covid-19 “the great reset” that had triggered history’s biggest ever drop in oil demand. This had resulted the world’s major oil exporters coming together to find a way to balance the oil market, he said.
Metha Veeraolarnkul, international trade officer at PTT, noted that Covid-19 had seen global oil consumption drop about 9 per cent on average, spiking to as much as 20 per cent, compared to last year. During the 2008 economic crisis, oil consumption only fell by 4 per cent, he said.
Driving this trend was the drop in consumption of big economies like the United States and China, with the US using 2.3 million barrels per day (-12 per cent) and China using less to 600,000 barrels per day (-4 per cent). Chinese consumption was now increasing as effective Covid-19 control enabled resumption of economic activities, he said.
Meanwhile, oil consumption in the transportation sector is also down, with a 47 per cent drop in jet fuel use as 55 per cent of global flights were halted – with a return to normal not expected until 2024.
However, the world economy would continue to recover next year, driven by travel by car and the auto industry, where sales have returned to normal levels. New US president Joe Biden would also launch a short-term stimulus policy to help the US and world economy recover.
Two scenarios for next year’s oil demand were presented at the forum.
Best case: If Covid-19 can be controlled, the global economy will grows about 5.2 per cent and oil demand will increase by 5.3 million barrels per day.
Worst case: If the spread of Covid-19 is not contained and the mortality rate remains high, the global economy may expand by 3.4 per cent and oil consumption increase by about 1.3 million barrels per day.
PPT’s PRISM Expert predicts Dubai crude oil prices in 2021 at $45-$55 per barrel, an increase from 2020 due to Covid-19 vaccine hopes, international economic stimulus packages and trends in renewable energy. However, the analysts estimate Dubai crude oil will be $35-$45 if Covid-19 cannot be controlled.
Amonthep Chawla, chief economist of CIMB Thai Bank, said the Thai economy will expand around 3-4 per cent next year, but there are still four factors to be monitored: Political factors, including a Cabinet reshuffle that may affect continuity of economic policy; baht appreciation that will affect exports; the second phase of the coronavirus outbreak; and the risk of a trade war continuing even after the US gets a new president.
Thailand’s private sector is confident the global economic outlook will improve next year, said Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
However, he said the Thai export sector is facing rising shipment costs and a shortage of both containers and labour.
The private sector is also worried that prolonged anti-government rallies could dent consumer spending. He urged the government to seek ways to solve the political turmoil peacefully.
Meanwhile Thanavat Phonvichai, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), expects to see the economy improve in the fourth quarter this year with reduced contraction of 4-5 per cent.
Don’t rush to open the country, warns former WTO chief
EconNov 27. 2020Former director general of the World Trade Organisation, Supachai Panitchpakdi. File photo.
By The Nation
Former director general of the World Trade Organisation, Supachai Panitchpakdi, has urged the Thai government not to rush to open the country to foreign tourists amid the ongoing threat from Covid-19.
He pointed out that Western countries are loosening and re-imposing lockdowns in a cycle that is resulting in a large number of infections and deaths, as well as severely hurting economies.
He warned of the long-term impact of Thailand lifting its restrictions on foreign travellers.
“Thailand should gradually open the country, because human resources are the most important factor. It takes about 20 to 30 years for human development, and if those people die it will be very difficult to restore the lost human resources,” he said.
Saving lives is the best way to aid economic recovery post-Covid-19, said Supachai, who is also a former secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The government has opened the country to a limited number of foreign tourists, in a bid to help tourism recover from the devastating impact of the virus.
Supachai noted the economy is expected to contract 5 to 6 per cent this year, up from the previous forecast of 7-8 per cent contraction.
He expressed optimism that Thai economic growth and exports would return to positive territory next year. Faster recovery of China and Asean countries would benefit Thai exports, he predicted.
However, he warned exporters not to rely on a weaker baht. Baht appreciation could dampen exports, so exporters should reorganise their businesses to increase their competitive advantage, he suggested.
Meanwhile he urged the central bank to raise the interest rate since its low level of 0.5 per cent was hitting savers’ income.
Rising household debt was also a worry, he said. Thais are getting into debt at a younger age, in contrast to people in other countries who don’t get indebted until much older, he added.
Former director general of the World Trade Organisation, Supachai Panitchpakdi. File photo. 
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