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PTT, Thai refineries forecast oil at $45-55 in 2021 (nationthailand.com)

PTT, Thai refineries forecast oil at $45-55 in 2021

EconNov 26. 2020

By The Nation

PTT Group Oil Situation Analysts (PRISM Expert) together with the Federation of Thai Industries’ Petroleum Refinery Industry Club have forecast the 2021 Dubai crude oil price at US$45-55 per barrel – higher than 2020 due to Covid-19 vaccine development, international stimulus measures and renewable energy trends.

However, the analysts warn recovery of the oil market is still at risk. If the virus outbreak continues and becomes difficult to control, Dubai crude prices would stay at $35-$45 per barrel, they said.

Bandhit Thamprajamchit, chairman of the Petroleum Refining Industry Club, said Covid-19 was “the Great Reset, or a major turning point” that forced oil demand in 2020 to drop to its lowest level in history.

The discovery of Covid-19 vaccines was a crucial signal for each country to set measures and stimulate the economy, he added.

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IPO activity proves Southeast Asian markets robust despite crisis (nationthailand.com)

IPO activity proves Southeast Asian markets robust despite crisis

EconNov 26. 2020Wilasinee Krishnamra, disruptive events advisory leader for Deloitte Thailand 

By The Nation

Capital markets across Southeast Asia have remained resilient this year despite uncertainties from the global health crisis to the worsening US-China trade tensions and impact of the US presidential elections, according to Deloitte Southeast Asia.

Initial public offerings (IPOs) in the region over 10 and a half months this year bucked the overall downward trend to inch up to pre-Covid levels with up to US$6.44 billion raised in 100 IPOs. from 100 initial public offerings (IPOs).

Though the number of IPOs dropped by 38 per cent from 161 in 2019 and IPO proceeds dropped by 12 per cent from $7.34 billion, the total IPO market capitalisation in 2020 rose by 3 per cent to $25.96 billion.

The good news is capital markets in Southeast Asia appear to be navigating global economic headwinds well so far.

For the second consecutive year, Thailand remains in pole position for the highest funds raised across Southeast Asia.

Taking the top two spots on the region’s leaderboard this year are Thailand’s Central Retail Corporation Public Co Ltd and SCG Packaging Public Co Ltd with $1.77 billion and $ 1.27 billion raised, respectively. The two listings collectively accounted for almost half of the total funds raised in Southeast Asia.

A stable economic growth, strong currency, low interest rates and consistently strong domestic liquidity allowed the Stock Exchange of Thailand to net $3.94 billion in IPO proceeds as of November 15, which accounted for 61 per cent of total funds in 2020 to emerge as one of the bright spots in the region.

This marks the fourth consecutive year that Thailand has raised more than $2 billion from IPO listings and the first time since 2015 to break the $3 billion mark.

“Thailand’s IPO market continues to show its growth potential as one of the stronger IPO markets in Southeast Asia. Largely driven by homegrown companies and fuelled by increasing investor interests in firms focused on consumer businesses, it continues to appeal strongly to investors and fund managers,” said Wilasinee Krishnamra, disruptive events advisory leader for Deloitte Thailand.

Across the border, the Malaysian stock exchange scored the biggest boost from the listing of Mr DIY Group, which raised $362 million, making it the largest listing in three years, while new listings fell to 18 this year, as compared to 30 listings in 2019.

Overall, Bursa Malaysia mustered a total fund raising of $481 million for 2020, registering growth from $447 million raised in 2019.

In the Philippines, the listing of AREIT marked the country’s first-ever REIT (real-estate investment trust) listing, lifting the bourse with a $255 million IPO in August. The IPO contributed to 31 per cent of the total funds raised by the Philippine Stock Exchange, in addition to the 65 per cent of funds contributed by Converge Information and Communications Technology Solutions Inc, which raised $523 million.

Indonesia was responsible for 46 IPOs in the first 10 and a half months of 2020, which accounted for the highest number of IPOs across Southeast Asia in 2020. The high IPO activity can be attributed to the easing of listing for small and medium-sized enterprises since 2017.

Singapore saw its largest homegrown listing through Nanofilm Technologies International, which raised $345 million on the SGX Mainboard, a platform typically dominated by REITs listings in recent years.

As of November 15, the Singapore Exchange (SGX) raised a total of $852 million in IPO proceeds from eight IPO deals. In addition to Nanofilm Technologies, this includes two REIT IPOs on SGX Mainboard with $479 million funds raised and five deals on the Catalist board that raised $29 million. In comparison, the exchange raised $2.26 billion in proceeds from 11 IPO deals in 2019.

For some countries, REITs continue to remain an attractive asset class with low volatility, above-market dividend yields and provide exposure to high-quality properties, healthcare facilities, e-commerce or digitalisation related assets. The growth potential for REITs across Southeast Asia region is promising, given the region’s population and urbanisation-led growth trends.

On the outlook for 2021, Tay Hwee Ling, disruptive events advisory leader for Deloitte Southeast Asia and Singapore, believes the region will continue to see good growth and expects an upswing in listings as a soon as a vaccine is proven safe and effective.

“Covid has made companies re-evaluate their business and growth forecast; and companies are looking into windows of opportunity to raise funds from stock markets to support their growth and stay resilient in this challenging climate. Though we are not out of the woods yet, the listing markets in Southeast Asia are still dynamic and attractive to investors.”

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SET extend gains despite worries of political turmoil (nationthailand.com)

SET extend gains despite worries of political turmoil

EconNov 26. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,433.56 on Thursday, up 17.84 points or 1.26 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt80 billion with an index high of 1,433.47 and a low of 1,416.79.

In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,405 and 1,425 points amid forecasts of a smooth US presidential transition, progress on Covid-19 vaccines and the rising oil price.

“However, investors should beware of mass selloffs due to uncertainty over Thailand’s political unrest and signs of overbought stocks,” he said.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were KBANK, PTT, SCGP, ADVANC, DELTA, MINT, STGT, BANPU, PTTEP and CBG.

As of 4.30pm, the price of oil dropped by US$0.76 or 1.66 per cent to $44.95 per barrel, while gold rose by $8 or 0.44 per cent, to $1,819.20 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were rise, except for Shenzhen SE Component Index:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 26,537.31, up 240.45 points or 0.91 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,369.73, up 7.41 points or 0.22 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,599.99, down 56.10 points or 0.41 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 26,819.45, up 149.70 points or 0.56 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,625.91, up 24.37 points or 0.94 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 13,845.66, up 106.83 points or 0.78 per cent.

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Green economy offers $1bn boost to Southeast Asia: study (nationthailand.com)

Green economy offers $1bn boost to Southeast Asia: study

EconNov 26. 2020

By The Nation

Southeast Asia is waking up to a US$1 trillion (Bt30.3 trillion) annual economic opportunity if it pursues the economic and social potential of the green economy.

This is among the findings of global consultancy Bain & Company’s Southeast Asia sustainability outlook, “Southeast Asia’s Green Economy: Pathway to Full Potential”, released on Thursday.

The region could be greener by 2030, spurred on by accelerating global momentum and investment to address sustainability and climate challenges.

Yet Southeast Asia still has a long way to go. With its share of global population, biodiversity and resources, the region can play a far bigger role, offering significant growth potential moving forward, the report said.

Accelerating development of the Southeast Asian green economy offers a $1 trillion economic opportunity annually for businesses by 2030, enabling regional companies and societies to build a competitive advantage for the future.

As part of Bain’s continued efforts to drive sustainability transformation across the globe, the firm has launched a Global Sustainability Innovation Centre (GSIC), with the support of the Singapore Economic Development Board.

The GSIC will seek to pioneer innovative solutions to accelerate corporates’ sustainability journeys, tackling some of the planet’s biggest challenges. The centre will be based in Singapore and will support Bain’s deep expertise in sustainability in the region – helping companies to reach their ESG goals.

“Globally, countries are prioritising sustainability investments as concerns about climate change and the resulting transition to a green economy gathers speed and urgency,” said Gerry Mattios, co-director of the Singapore centre and co-author of the report.

“Stimulus programmes injected into economies around the world to address the Covid-19 pandemic and promote ‘build back better’ initiatives are accelerating the push towards greener, more sustainable industries. Yet in this race, Southeast Asia can build a lot more momentum to seize the opportunity.”

The report says Southeast Asia is lagging behind other regions in their green initiatives. This lag presents a threat to Southeast Asia’s global competitiveness but also creates immense opportunities for the region, it adds.

“Adopting green practices will meet the region’s wider environmental, social and governance (ESG) ambitions and in turn deliver societal benefits such as preservation of the earth’s natural ecosystems and social inclusivity – ends in themselves that also underpin increased growth,” explained Dale Hardcastle, co-director of the Global Sustainability Innovation Centre in Singapore and report co-author. “By unlocking the green economy, the economic growth of a wide range of sectors in the region would immediately follow.”

Southeast Asia has pathways across industries that can unlock the trillion-dollar potential of the green economy, says the report. It also identifies areas where Southeast Asia can be a global leader:

Sustainable energy and resources: Where excessive resource extraction and energy consumption followed by waste mismanagement were the norm, the region could benefit from a $270 billion opportunity as it embarks on decarbonisation and electrification, a sustainable energy transition, responsible consumption and embedded circularity.

Healthy and sustainable food systems: Where agricultural growth has typically been inefficient and wasteful, Southeast Asia has the potential to innovate and increase production in a regenerative and conscious manner that will make nutrition widely accessible. This represents an $205 billion opportunity for the region.

Efficient industrial operations and logistics: As industrial activity in Southeast Asia expands due to geopolitical shifts, manufacturing processes can be reimagined and supply chains connected and made transparent with full traceability. The region can help ensure low carbon footprint and capture an $200 billion opportunity while doing so.

Green and connected cities: As urban populations grow, the way is clear to build affordable green homes in satellite settlements connected by green public transportation, representing a $185 billion opportunity in Southeast Asia.

Green financing and liquid carbon markets: While sustainable initiatives have struggled for financing and carbon-offset revenues have gone to waste, Southeast Asia can take the lead in green financing be a home for a liquid carbon market where incentives to reduce emissions can be part of the prescription.

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Gold price falls despite rise in US market (nationthailand.com)

Gold price falls despite rise in US market

EconNov 26. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold dropped by Bt50 per baht weight in morning trade on Thursday after falling by Bt250 per baht weight at close on Wednesday, the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.27am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,900 per baht weight and selling price Bt26,000, while gold ornaments cost Bt25,438.48 and Bt26,500, respectively.

At close on Wednesday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,950 per baht weight and selling price Bt26,050, while gold ornaments cost Bt25,483.96 and Bt26,550, respectively.

The spot gold price moved to US$1,811 (Bt54,921) per ounce in the morning, while the Comex (Commodity Exchange) gold price to be delivered in December rose to $1,805.50 per ounce on Wednesday from a weakening dollar and mass buy ups of the precious metal in response to a rise in US jobless claims.

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SET rises, but worries over political unrest, overbought stocks cast shadow (nationthailand.com)

SET rises, but worries over political unrest, overbought stocks cast shadow

EconNov 26. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 8.82 points, or 0.62 per cent, to 1,424.54 in the morning session on Thursday.

An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,405 and 1,425 points amid forecasts of a smooth US presidential transition, progress on Covid-19 vaccines and the rising oil price.

“However, investors should beware of mass selloffs in shares due to uncertainty over Thailand’s political unrest and signs of overbought stocks,” he said.

He recommended investors buy:

> PTTEP, PTTGC, Top, IVL and SPRC, which benefit from the rising oil price.

> Mint, Centel and AOT, which benefit from the development of a Covid-19 vaccine.

> Amata, WHA, SAT and AH, which will benefit from the Asia-Pacific Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership pact.

The SET Index closed at 1,415.72 on Wednesday, up 14.09 points, or 1.01 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt117 billion, with an index high of 1,428.36 points and a low of 1,392.42.

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Back-to-work rotation in stocks falters on data (nationthailand.com)

Back-to-work rotation in stocks falters on data

EconNov 26. 2020Pedestrians reflected in an electronic stock board outside a securities firm in Tokyo on Oct. 29, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Kiyoshi Ota. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Yakob Peterseil, Vildana Hajric · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS

The rotation out of tech shares and into cyclicals, sparked by promising vaccine news, reversed Wednesday as investors cast a wary eye on a batch of data that suggest a possible slowdown in economic growth. Treasurys edged higher.

The S&P 500 Index retreated from an all-time high, while the Dow Jones industrial average fell back below 30,000. The tech-heavy Nasdaq indexes edged higher. Volume dwindled into the closing auction as traders headed out for the Thursday holiday that will keep markets closed. A deluge of data brought the first back-to-back rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims since July, an uptick in durable-goods orders and a widening trade deficit.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting did little to alter views. The central bank discussed providing more guidance on its bond-buying strategy during the Nov. 4-5 policy meeting. Traders are also assessing the pandemic’s effect on the economy as cases continue to rise and more jurisdictions tighten restrictions.

“The market is caught between two powerful impulses — optimism for the post-pandemic world and fear because present reality is that the pandemic is exploding throughout the country,” said Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments and portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, which has $44 billion in total client assets. “Markets could be choppy, but downside is likely limited by the vaccine.”

Small caps slumped. The Russell 2000 is still up 20% in November, headed for the best month in its 41-year history. Gold was little changed, bitcoin pulled back from near a record and the 10-year Treasury yield fell. The dollar weakened.

The mediocre economic data dimmed positive vaccine news and the formal start of President-elect Joe Biden’s transition to power — including the selection of Janet Yellen as treasury secretary — that had fueled optimism about the outlook for risk assets. At the same time, restrictions to curb surging coronavirus cases threaten to slow the world’s economic recovery. An MSCI gauge of global shares stalled on Wednesday after gaining 13% in November, still set for the best month since 1988.

“We remain on fragile footing heading into the winter as cases continue to climb globally,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “And since the markets are forward looking, this data will likely be taken in stride. The markets tend to cheer on certainty so the presidential transition and vaccine developments are two factors it’s latched onto lately.”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged lower, as cyclicals such as mining and energy firms fell, offsetting advances in defensives including utility shares. ABN Amro Bank NV and Commerzbank AG dropped more than 3% and led euro-area lenders lower after the European Central Bank said the industry will probably have to set aside more money to soak up losses when government pandemic support ends.

Here are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 Index slid 0.2% as of 4 p.m. EST.

– The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%.

– The Dow average lost 0.6%

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.1%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed.

– The MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 0.4%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.

– The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1914.

– The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3378.

– The onshore yuan strengthened 0.3% to 6.574 per dollar.

– The Japanese yen was little changed at 104.4 per dollar.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys declined one basis point to 0.87%.

– The yield on two-year Treasurys was little changed at 0.16%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to -0.58%.

– Britain’s 10-year yield declined to 0.318%.

– Japan’s 10-year yield dipped less than one basis point to 0.021%.

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude gained 3.6% to $45.62 a barrel.

– Brent crude gained 1.5% to $48.59 a barrel.

– Gold futures were flat at $1,810.70 an ounce.

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U.S. jobless claims post first back-to-back increase since July (nationthailand.com)

U.S. jobless claims post first back-to-back increase since July

EconNov 25. 2020A restaurant in the Old Town neighborhood of San Diego on Nov. 19, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Bing Guan. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Henry Ren · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS

Applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose for a second straight week in the first back-to-back increase since July.

The data indicate that soaring coronavirus cases and fresh lockdowns are spurring a new wave of layoffs.

Initial jobless claims in regular state programs increased by 30,000 to 778,000 in the week ended Nov. 21, according to Labor Department data Wednesday. Without adjustments for seasonal fluctuations, the figure rose by about 78,000 during the week.

Follow reaction in real time here on Bloomberg’s TOPLive blog

Continuing claims — the total pool of Americans on ongoing state unemployment benefits — fell by 299,000 to 6.07 million in the week ended Nov. 14. But the number of Americans on an extended assistance program continued to increase, a sign that more people have exhausted regular state benefits.

The main figures compared with economists’ projections for 730,000 initial claims and 6 million continuing claims, based on the median estimates in Bloomberg surveys.

The consecutive increase in claims offer evidence that the coronavirus threatens to stall an economic rebound that was already moderating from a breakneck pace in the third quarter, with some economists predicting a contraction for the first quarter.

The job market faces additional hurdles as states and cities restrict business activity and hospitalizations spike.

“The continued weakness of the labor market is something that is going to drive the whole economy down,” Catherine Mann, global chief economist at Citigroup, said on Bloomberg Television. At the same time, solid sectors like manufacturing are “going to keep us from being in official recession, but it’s going to be very grim,” she said.

Several states recorded significant increases in initial claims, led by Illinois, where Chicago issued a stay-at-home advisory starting last week. Michigan, Washington, New Mexico, California and Minnesota also reported higher filings.

U.S. stocks edged lower at the open with 10-year Treasury yields, while the dollar fluctuated.

Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which provides benefits to self-employed and gig workers, increased by about 466,000 to 9.15 million. The Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which provides payments to the long-term unemployed, was used by 4.51 million Americans. Those two programs will expire at year-end, leaving many without government aid.

In other economic data released Wednesday:

– U.S. durable goods orders increased at a faster-than-expected clip in October, supported by demand for computers and metals, underscoring a manufacturing sector that continues to support the economy.

– The economy expanded at a record 33.1% annualized pace in the third quarter, unrevised from the initial reading.

– The U.S. merchandise-trade deficit widened in October as imports reached the highest in more than a year, outpacing a gain in the value of exports.

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Prayut urges US businesses to boost EEC investment (nationthailand.com)

Prayut urges US businesses to boost EEC investment

EconNov 25. 2020(Photo credit: Government House) 

By The Nation

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Wednesday invited the US private sector to invest more in Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).

The premier met with representatives of 28 companies under the US-Asean Business Council (USABC) at the Foreign Affairs Ministry. He also also spoke to another 11 USABC members via video, said government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri.

Prayut hailed the EEC as a key engine driving the Thai economy.

He also told US company representatives that the government was focusing on boosting public health security and economic recovery from the impact of Covid-19.

The council’s president, Alexander C Feldman, praised the government for its effective control of the outbreak, which he said was helping to support a favourable investment climate.

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SET rallies on news of vaccine, US transition (nationthailand.com)

SET rallies on news of vaccine, US transition

EconNov 25. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,415.72 on Wednesday, up 14.09 points or 1.01 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt117 billion with an index high of 1,428.36 and a low of 1,392.42.

In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,390 and 1,415 points amid forecasts of a smooth US presidential transition, progress on Covid-19 vaccines and the rising oil price.

“However, mass selloffs to reduce risk caused by pro-democracy protesters’ anti-government rally [today] will pressure the index,” he said.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were PTT, KBANK, PTTEP, AOT, SAWAD, ADVANC, MINT, CPALL, PTTGC and CPF.

As of 4.30pm, the price of oil rose by US$0.35 or 0.78 per cent to $45.26 per barrel, while gold rose by $4.60 or 0.25 per cent, to $1,809.20 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 26,296.86, up 131.27 points or 0.50 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,362.33, down 40.50 points or 1.19 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,656.10, down 246.44 points or 1.77 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 26,669.75, up 81.55 points or 0.31 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,601.54, down 16.22 points or 0.62 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 13,738.83, down 68.30 points or 0.49 per cent.