U.S. consumer sentiment falls, but the worst may be yet to come #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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U.S. consumer sentiment falls, but the worst may be yet to come

Mar 13. 2020
File photo/Syndication Washington Post

File photo/Syndication Washington Post
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Jordan Yadoo · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS, RETAIL 

U.S. consumer sentiment fell slightly less than forecast in March amid stock market declines as Americans remained somewhat optimistic in their initial response to the coronavirus outbreak, though their outlooks signaled that they aren’t likely to remain as upbeat.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index fell to 95.9 from 101 in February, according to data released Friday that slightly exceeded estimates in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. The composition showed the future expectations index fell more steeply, dropping 6.8 points to 85.3, than current conditions, down 2.3 points to 112.5.

The survey conducted from Feb. 26 through late Wednesday evening captures a period that started with the virus beginning to spread across the country and culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging into a bear market, the World Health Organization declaring a pandemic, and President Donald Trump restricting travel from Europe.

It doesn’t reflect Thursday’s stock-market plunge — the worst since 1987 — and the rapid shutdown of university campuses, public schools, major sports and entertainment venues over the last 24 hours.

“The initial response to the pandemic has not generated the type of economic panic among consumers that was present in the run-up to the Great Recession,” Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in a statement. “Nonetheless, the data suggest that additional declines in confidence are still likely to occur as the spread of the virus continues to accelerate.”

The pullback snaps a six-month streak of gains that showed Americans had grown more upbeat as trade tensions with China eased. This month’s first major sentiment report will be followed by a final reading March 27, reflecting a Feb. 26 to March 23 survey period, and the Conference Board’s gauge on March 31. Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index this week posted a sixth-straight drop, the longest such stretch since 2015.

“If we look to the rest of the month of March you’re going to see a combination of not just the expectations but the current economic conditions fall, and that will lead to significant pullback in the final reading,” said Gregory Daco, an economist at Oxford Economics. “When you’re going to start to see a real disruption to consumer sentiment is when people see their daily activities being influenced by the virus.”

The most effective containment efforts, closures and isolation, also do the most damage to the economy and increase the chances that the pandemic will be followed by a recession that lasts longer than the virus, Curtin said.

“The best policy antidote would be immediate relief provided by multiple sources of cash transfers and debt forbearance,” he wrote. “To avoid a recession, speed is more essential than targeting. Moreover, maintaining confidence in the effectiveness of economic policies is essential.”

Still, the figures suggest early reactions to the outbreak reflect a perception that it will be a temporary event, according to Curtin’s report. A majority still report being better off financially. Asked about future prospects, 37% expected gains versus 41% last month. Twenty-nine percent expected interest rates to decline, the most since February 2009.

Asked to explain their economic expectations, the virus was spontaneously mentioned by 38% of respondents versus 8% last month, and those mentioning the outbreak were more pessimistic. The survey found no significant difference in confidence in government economic policies between those who mentioned the virus and those who didn’t.

U.S. stocks rebound on hopes for policy responses #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

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U.S. stocks rebound on hopes for policy responses

Mar 13. 2020
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Jeremy Herron, Katherine Greifeld · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS

U.S. stocks rebounded from the worst day since 1987 amid signs policy makers around the world are taking action to stave off the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Oil jumped.

The S&P 500 traded about 3% higher after plunging 9.5% on Thursday in the biggest rout since 1987 and fifth-worst on record. European equities jumped 7%, the dollar strengthened and stress in the credit markets showed some signs of easing.

After days of no or inadequate action, policy prescriptions came fast Friday, with reports Congress is near a deal on a relief bill. The European Union prepared to suspend government spending rules, and regulators in Italy and Spain banned short-selling on some stocks. China’s central bank said it would pump in $79 billion to bolster the economy.

The moves buoyed market sentiment battered by the spread of the virus and a spate of travel restrictions, school closings and event cancellations. But bears cautioned that the rebound was preordained and may not stick.

After each of the 10 worst days in S&P 500 history, the average return has been a gain of 2.94%. The Cboe Volatility Index dropped after its fourth-highest close on record. Such spikes in the VIX have always been followed by sharp rallies.

Other markets remained exceptionally volatile. Ten-year Treasuries swung from earlier gains to losses. Sovereign bonds sank across most of Europe for a second day amid criticism of European Central Bank measures to address the pandemic. Oil pushed higher and the dollar headed for its best week since 2016.

“It’s possible we’re just recovering a portion of yesterday’s losses on the idea that there were no terrible headlines this morning,” said Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobsen. “The market had priced in the extreme dour outcome and the lack of newsflow this morning to confirm that worst-case scenario resulted in just a bit of a relief rally.”

Even with Friday’s gains, global equities are heading for their worst week since 2008 as investors price in a severely weaker economic outlook as cases continue to grow across the world and restrictions on people and businesses crush sentiment. The Bank of Japan on Friday followed an earlier move from the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity.

“It seems that the more severe things become in the short term, the more extreme will be the fiscal and monetary policy response,” Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote to investors. “It is very conceivable that the full boost from such measures will only really kick in just as activity rebounds, with pent up demand leading to a turbo-charged recovery in the second half of the year in the wake of an economic contraction in the context of the first half.”

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks:

– The S&P 500 Index jumped 3% as of 9:54 a.m. in New York.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index soared 6.6%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 2.2%.

– The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 1.2%.

Currencies:

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.4%.

– The euro decreased 0.3% to $1.1149.

– The British pound declined 0.7% to $1.2484.

– The Japanese yen weakened 2.5% to 107.28 per dollar.

– The Mexican peso strengthened 2.5% to 21.403 per dollar.

Bonds:

– The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained 14 basis points to 0.95%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield jumped 16 basis points to -0.59%.

Commodities:

– West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3% to $32.46 a barrel.

– Gold strengthened 0.2% to $1,579.14 an ounce.

Oil heads for worst week since 2008 as price war grips market #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30384035?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

Oil heads for worst week since 2008 as price war grips market

Mar 13. 2020
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Alex Longley · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS

Oil is headed for its largest weekly collapse since 2008 as a bitter price war erupted between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and coronavirus contagion cratered demand.

Futures in New York are down 18% this week. The crude surplus may reach a record high by April as the two former OPEC+ allies race to increase production, according to Goldman Sachs. The market’s structure has already returned to a super-contango, indicating a big oversupply.

At the same time, concerns over demand are continuing to grow. Gasoline prices fell by a fifth on Thursday as President Donald Trump issued a travel ban from Europe.

Crude recovered some of this week’s losses on Friday, with equities paring Thursday’s slump. Still, signs of fear abounded, with oil more volatile than during the financial crisis.

The schism between Moscow and Riyadh is hardening with Russian oil producers planning to ramp up production next month, and no plans for a detente with Saudi Arabia. The kingdom said earlier in the week that it would boost output by more than 25% in April, while it sends a flood of crude to Europe, Russia’s tradition market.

“Demand is falling, refining margins are weakening, Saudi crude oil exports are surging: the super-contango is back,” Petromatrix Managing Director Olivier Jakob wrote in a report. “It will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to regain control of the markets.”

Governments and central banks have so far been powerless to stem the coronavirus-driven rout that’s reverberating through financial markets and threatening a global recession. Trump has yet to offer a detailed economic rescue package, while the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, although it took steps to boost liquidity.

In the U.S., several independent oil companies have already announced plans to scale back operations amid the flood of cheap crude. The American industry is also encouraging the Trump administration to waive a law that mandates only domestic vessels can be used to transport goods between U.S. ports.

Gold price closes Bt100/baht higher #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30384028?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

Gold price closes Bt100/baht higher

Mar 13. 2020
By The Nation

The price of gold rose by Bt100 per baht weight at Friday’s close (March 13), the Gold Traders Association reported.

At 4.54pm, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt23,750 per baht weight with selling price Bt23,850, while the buying price of gold ornaments was Bt23,316.08 per baht weight and selling price Bt24,350.

Prices increased from the morning session when the buying price of a gold bar was Bt23,650 and Bt23,750 to sell, while gold ornaments was Bt23,225.12 to buy and Bt24,250 to sell.

Gold contracts in COMEX futures to be delivered in April fell by US$52 to $1,590.30 per ounce at Thursday’s close due to uncertainty about the global economic impact from the Covid-19 outbreak after US President Donald Trump suspended travel from Europe.

SET rebounds from slump on Thursday #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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SET rebounds from slump on Thursday

Mar 13. 2020
By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index ended at 1,128.91 today (March 13), advancing 14.00 points (1.26 per cent) over Thursday’s close with an index high of 1,164.16 and a low of 969.08 on a total transaction volume of Bt119.659 billion.

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the SET to slide to between 1,050 and 1,080 today due to a lack of positive factors, and the index to follow global stock trends.

“Most global stocks dropped due to uncertainty among investors following the Covid-19 outbreak, which has intensified in Europe and the US,” the stock analyst said.

The top ten stocks with the highest trade values today were BAM, PTT, AOT, CPALL, GULF, ADVANC, PTTEP, BBL, SCC, and KBANK

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 17,431.05, down 1,128.58 points, or 6.08 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 2,887.43, down 36.06 points, or 1.23 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 10,831.12, down 109.89 points, or 1.00 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,032.91, down 276.16 points, or 1.14 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 1,771.44, down 62.89 points, or 3.43 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 10,128.87, down 293.45 points, or 2.82 per cent.

Gold price plunges amid rising Covid-19 worries #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

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Gold price plunges amid rising Covid-19 worries

Mar 13. 2020
By The Nation

The price of gold dropped sharply by Bt750 per baht weight on Friday morning (March 13), the Gold Traders Association reported at 9.30am.

The buying price of a gold bar was Bt23,650 per baht weight and selling price Bt23,750. Buying price of gold ornaments was Bt23,225.12 per baht weight and selling price Bt24,250.

The prices dropped from Thursday’s close (March 12) when buying price of gold bar was Bt24,400 and selling price Bt24,500. The buying price of gold ornaments was Bt23,967.96 and selling price Bt25,000.

Gold contracts in COMEX futures to be delivered in April fell by US$52 to $1,590.30 per ounce on Thursday’s close due to uncertainty about the global economic impact from the Covid-19 outbreak after US President Donald Trump suspended travel from Europe.

Trump announced that the US will suspend travel from Europe, except the United Kingdom, for 30 days, to take effect from midnight Friday local time. Trump also blamed the European Union for not suspending travel from China at the beginning of the Covid-19 outbreak.

The World Health Organisation has declared Covid-19 a global pandemic after it became widespread throughout many regions.

An analyst said that Trump’s coronavirus travel restrictions on Europe had caused uncertainty in the markets, stating that investors would see greater economic impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.

SET uses circuit breaker as Covid-19 worries pummel Thai stocks #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

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SET uses circuit breaker as Covid-19 worries pummel Thai stocks

Mar 13. 2020
By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) at 11am on Friday (March 13) fell by 78.95 points, or 7.08 per cent, to 1,035.96.

The SET had pulled the circuit breaker to suspend trade between 9.59am and 10.29am after the index fell by over 10 per cent on Friday morning.

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities said that the SET had pulled the circuit breaker due to investors selling their stocks after US President Donald Trump suspended travel from Europe for 30 days, and the number of confirmed of Covid-19 infections in Thailand increased.

“Foreign investors made net sales of Bt1.929 billion in the stock market and Bt13.646 billion in the bond market, while there are 28,243 net long TFEX contracts.”

The analyst expected the SET Index to slide to between 1,050 and 1,080 due to lack of any outstanding positive sentiment, causing the trading to follow global stock trends.

“Most global stocks dropped due to uncertainty among investors following the Covid-19 outbreak, which has intensified in Europe and the US,” the stock analyst said.

“We advise investors who cannot take risks to hold cash and monitor the situation, while those who can take risks should buy stocks for short-term profit taking, especially stocks whose price have fallen sharply and pay high dividends regularly.”

The analyst recommended three groups of stocks for investors:

● Defensive stocks which pay high dividends, such as ADVANC, INTUCH, and TTW.

● Retail stocks, which gained buying power after the government returned the electricity metre insurance for a total amount of Bt30 billion, such as CPALL, HMPRO, and BJC.

● Financial stocks, which gain benefit from the interest rate cut, such as MTC, SAWAD, and KTC.

U.S. stock market suffers worst crash since 1987, as Americans wake up to a new normal of life #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30383982?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

U.S. stock market suffers worst crash since 1987, as Americans wake up to a new normal of life

Mar 13. 2020
By The Washington Post · David J. Lynch, Thomas Heath, Taylor Telford, Heather Long · NATIONAL, BUSINESS

The stock market crashed to its worst day since 1987, shrugging off dramatic intervention by two central banks and a prime-time address by President Donald Trump as Americans realized the coronavirus will impose new limits on their daily lives.

The Dow Jones industrial average posted its largest one-day point loss in history, dropping almost 2,353 points to close at 21,200.62. In percentage terms, the 10 percent loss marked the Dow’s worst day since the infamous October day known as “Black Monday.”

The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell into a bear market, defined as falling 20 percent from a prior high. In an epic day-long rout, European markets suffered similar declines, with exchanges in Paris and Frankfurt shedding more than 12 percent and London’s FTSE index losing nearly 11 percent.

As investors struggled to cope with declines across multiple markets, few saw any early end to the bloodletting. One reason: although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates and the White House and Congress are working toward a stimulus, these actions fall short of the shock-and-awe response to the virus necessary to calm investors. Some analysts called for more aggressive rate cuts and fast new public spending to reverse the downdraft.

“The policy flops are mounting,” Ryan Sweet, director of real-time economics for Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a note to clients.

The latest plunge began Wednesday night, as President Trump started outlining his policy response to the epidemic in a widely-criticized Oval Office speech, and accelerated once trading opened Thursday in New York. Even the Federal Reserve’s promise to make available $1.5 trillion to smooth the operations of the giant U.S. Treasury market could not calm anxious investors.

Across the United States, meanwhile, the virus forced schools, sports leagues and entertainment venues – including American icons – to alter their plans.

The NCAA canceled “March Madness,” its premier annual showcase, disappointing millions of fans. Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League likewise placed their seasons in limbo joining the National Basketball Association, which acted one day earlier.

Public tours of the White House have been canceled and the U.S. Capitol and congressional office buildings will be off-limits to tourists starting April 1.

Even Mickey Mouse was sidelined, when Disneyland said it would close through the end of this month.

In Maryland, Gov. Larry Hogan ordered public schools to close for two weeks starting Monday and banned gathering of more than 250 people. Schools in Ohio will close for three weeks. And in Virginia, Gov. Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency, but left school closings to local officials.

Still, at the White House, the president continued to minimize the danger from the virus. The president said he was unfazed by reports that a Brazilian official he had met at Mar-a-Lago last weekend, Fabio Wajngarten, later tested positive for coronavirus.

“Let’s put it this way: I’m not concerned,” the president said when asked about having been exposed to the Brazilian official, who was photographed standing alongside him and Vice President Mike Pence.

If Thursday’s cascade of cancellations was notable, it was the financial markets that offered an unmistakable verdict on the response by major U.S. and global institutions to the virus.

Wall Street’s stunning meltdown over the past month has erased almost all of the stock market gains since Trump’s November 2016 election. On Feb. 12, the Dow was up more than 61 percent since his surprise win. Now the total Trump-era gain is around 11 percent.

Thursday’s decline reflected investor unease with the handling of the crisis by global leaders including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Trump and the emergence of structural problems in financial markets that were overlooked during a record 11-year economic expansion.

“It’s primarily the response to bad or absent leadership, particularly on the public health front, and unhelpful statements by the Trump administration, ECB and others that’s fundamentally what’s driving this,” said Adam Posen, a former member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee.

Lagarde sparked a sell-off in Italian government bonds with an offhand remark Thursday that the ECB was not worried about rising funding costs for some euro zone governments. She later modified her comments in a subsequent interview with CNBC. Likewise, the White House late Wednesday needed to issue a clarification after Trump misstated the details of his policy response to the virus in an Oval Office speech.

Malfunctioning markets were the target of an extraordinary action Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Federal Reserve said Thursday it was injecting $1.5 trillion into the bond market on Thursday and Friday to ensure the short-term funding markets that banks use to lend to one another operate smoothly. The New York Fed said it acted “pursuant to instruction” from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

The action was both financially esoteric – the sort of operational consideration that only bond traders might appreciate – and profoundly important for the health of Americans investments. The roughly $17 trillion Treasury market is the safe haven for investors who want a near-absolute guarantee that they will get their money back. It also operates as a benchmark against which all other assets – stocks, corporate bonds, municipal bonds and commodities – are priced.

“The belief that the Treasury is a risk-free asset is the bedrock of global financial markets,” said Narayana Kocherlakota, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. “Once you start to lose that, you lose an anchor that isn’t easily replaced.”

The Fed also announced it will buy $60 billion worth of Treasury bonds for the next month from March 13 through April 13, to help keep that market functioning appropriately. Earlier this week, investors reported problems trading in U.S. government bonds. These irregularities echoed the types of freezes seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the Fed appeared to want to act quickly to stop them.

“It’s safe to say, the Fed almost never does what it did the past two weeks,” said Peter Conti-Brown, a Fed historian and associate professor at Wharton. “the Fed has unlocked its emergency tool kit.”

But others said the market dysfunction showcased a fragility in the system resulting from some of the regulatory changes that were introduced in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. And to cope, the Fed needs to reinstate its crisis-fighting playbook from 2008.

“We just need a really bold response,” said Hal Scott, a Harvard Law School professor who heads the nonpartisan Committee on Capital Markets Regulation. “The spread of the virus is shutting down the economies of these countries. Take Italy – the economic system is not functioning. We could be there.”

President Trump has bashed Powell for acting slowly in the face of plunging markets and recession fears from the coronavirus outbreak.

But along with the Fed, investors are looking to Congress – with increasing desperation – for an aggressive response to the economic threat. “There has to be a fiscal response,” said Posen.

The Dow plummeted nearly 1,700 points, but it was the S&P 500 index′s 7 percent slide that triggered the circuit breaker – a 15-minute break to stop the free-fall and give traders time to recalibrate. The cool-down was temporary, though, with the blue-chip index sinking more than 2,200 points before rebounding slightly. By midday, it was down more than 1,800 points, or 7.8 percent, while the S&P 500 was off 7.2 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq down nearly 7 percent.

The New York Stock Exchange activated the rarely used lever as the coronavirus’s accelerating spread and worsening economic outlook have rattled global markets for weeks. Futures markets tumbled overnight after Trump announced the travel ban – a move that blindsided European officials.

Earlier in the week, the S&P 500 triggered the first circuit breaker on Monday after falling 7 percent early into the session. By the end of day, it had shed 7.6 percent and the Dow had lost a stunning 2,014 points, or 7.8 percent. The markets recovered somewhat Tuesday, posting across-the-board gains, only to recoil Wednesday after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic. The Dow cratered nearly 1,500 points to fall into a bear market, which marks a 20-percent drop its all-time high.

Thursday’s decline recalled 1987’s “Black Monday,” still the largest one-day Dow drop in percentage terms. Stocks fell 22.6 percent that day with the sell orders coming so quickly that they overwhelmed the computer and phone systems at the New York Stock Exchange. It took the market two years to recover the lost ground.

The pneumonia-like illness has spread to every continent save Antarctica since it first emerged in China late last year, sickening more than 120,000 people and claiming thousands of lives. The United States has more than 1,000 confirmed cases and more than 30 deaths.

The White House and Congress are at odds over what type of economic rescue package to assemble. The Trump administration has pushed the idea of new tax cuts and delayed tax filings as a way to boost the economy, as well as expanding sick leave benefits and helping the airline, hotel, and cruise industries. Democrats are moving ahead in the House of Representatives with a plan to expand unemployment insurance, provide more sick leave, and assure food benefits are available for people who lose their jobs and need emergency assistance.

“The bad news for the travel, entertainment, leisure, and energy industries resulting from the virus fears, initial unemployment claims are likely to move higher soon,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote in commentary Thursday. “Measures of consumer and business confidence are likely to drop sharply soon as well. A recession isn’t inevitable, but it certainly is becoming more likely. ”

Before Thursday, the Dow has closed a single-day session down at least 7 percent on 20 occasions since 1896, according to Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Hopes of bipartisan deal rise as White House, Democrats negotiate coronavirus relief package #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30383973?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

Hopes of bipartisan deal rise as White House, Democrats negotiate coronavirus relief package

Mar 13. 2020
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi/File photo / Syndication Washington Post

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi/File photo / Syndication Washington Post
By The Washington Post · Mike DeBonis, Erica Werner, Jeff Stein · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, HEALTH, POLITICS

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration and congressional Democrats moved toward a deal Thursday on an economic relief package to help workers impacted by the coronavirus, with both sides under intense pressure to act as the scale of the crisis mounted.

The talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin raised hopes on Capitol Hill that a bipartisan agreement was in reach – within days if not hours – to address the health catastrophe that has upended Washington and the nation.

A congressional recess is scheduled for next week, but Pelosi vowed Thursday not to leave until action was taken, while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., announced he would cancel the recess to advance “bipartisan legislation to continue combating the coronavirus and keep our economy strong.”

“I think it would be wise to have folks here,” said Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, who is up for reelection in November. “This is such a serious issue. We need to be continually monitoring this as a group, not having us all out to the four winds.”

The behind-the-scenes negotiations between Democrats and the White House stood in contrast to the partisan response that greeted a package of economic measures that House Democrats introduced late Wednesday.

The House bill includes a $2 billion boost to state unemployment insurance programs, more than $1 billion in nutritional aid, a new paid-leave benefit for employees affected by the outbreak and an increase in federal Medicaid spending, as well as a guarantee of free coronavirus testing.

That package met a frosty reception early Thursday from the White House and congressional Republicans, who were wary of the bill’s costs and its potential burdens on employers.

“There are things in there that have nothing to do with what we’re talking about,” President Donald Trump told reporters as he met with the prime minister of Ireland in the Oval Office. “So, you know, it’s not a way for them to get some of the goodies that they haven’t been able to get for the last 25 years.”

McConnell called the bill “an ideological wish list that was not tailored closely to the circumstances.”

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., meanwhile, told reporters the Democratic bill contained “glaring problems” that would be difficult to resolve before the congressional recess that was set to begin later Thursday.

“We should not take a rush just because there is a bill,” he said. “We should make sure it works.”

Trump is advancing costly ideas of his own – including a payroll-tax holiday that could drain tens of billions of dollars from Social Security. That idea has gotten limited traction among both parties on Capitol Hill.

But as the day progressed, the leaders of both parties sent growing signals there was a deal to be had. McCarthy, for instance, suggested a narrower package could win GOP support – leaving broader measures, such as the payroll-tax cut, for another day.

“I know at the end of the day we will find to do what is right,” he said. “I think we can get this done in 24 or 48 hours. I think it’s critical that we do.”

Pelosi said Mnuchin’s suggestions had been “all very reasonable” and, like McCarthy, held out the possibility of a broader economic relief bill later.

“We are . . . agreeing to most of it, because they are not that different. So we don’t need 48 hours,” she said. “We need to just make a decision to help families right now.”

By late afternoon, a senior administration official said that the two sides had “made a lot of significant progress since the sun came up this morning,” although several issues remained to be resolved. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to provide insight into the confidential negotiations.

Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, said most of the ideas advanced by House Democrats were acceptable to Republicans. He said he was in touch with the White House about tailoring the Democrats’ paid sick leave proposal to ensure it can be accessed more quickly, and that it doesn’t turn into an open-ended entitlement.

“So I’m just saying, let’s try to accomplish something that we can agree on and get it done,” Portman said.

Only last week Congress passed an $8.3 billion emergency spending plan to address public health needs arising from the crisis. But as the stock market plunges, layoffs begin, schools around the country shut down, and entire sports leagues shutter their seasons, the need for a robust economic response has become glaring.

There are now well over 1,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. and more than three dozen deaths, numbers that are expected to exponentially rise. And increasing numbers of lawmakers are announcing plans to shut down their offices and self-quarantine following brushes with infected individuals.

The White House was also moving to assemble its own relief plan, one that included requests for congressional action as well as administrative actions that the Trump administration could take unilaterally.

White House officials were holding meetings Thursday to hammer out details of the administration’s economic response package as promised by Trump in his national address Wednesday night, including some kind of paid-sick-leave plan that could be enacted administratively. Critical details remained unresolved, however.

The House paid-leave plan relies on a two-pronged approach, combining a temporary program that would be administered by the Social Security Administration that would provide up to $4,000 a month to affected households, with a new permanent sick-leave mandate for U.S. employers. Only firms employing fewer than 50 people would be eligible for federal assistance in meeting that mandate, which was strongly opposed by the administration.

Another controversial provision would increase the percentage of Medicaid spending borne by the federal government by 8 percentage points through Sept. 30, 2021. That would be a welcome relief to states, which could see an influx of Medicaid enrollees in a time of economic crisis. But the price tag for the federal government could be vast – stretching easily into the tens of billions of dollars.

U.S. stocks sink in worst day since Black Monday #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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U.S. stocks sink in worst day since Black Monday

Mar 13. 2020
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Claire Ballentine, Vildana Hajric, Sarah Ponczek · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS

U.S. stocks tumbled, with benchmark gauges posting their worst drop since 1987, as investors signaled that the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary bond-buying measures and President Donald Trump’s economic proposals won’t be enough to counter the economic impact from the coronavirus.

All three major U.S. equity gauges fell more than 9%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 losing the most since Black Monday more than three decades ago. Ten-year Treasury yields erased declines and inched higher as policymakers’ pledge of $1.5 trillion in liquidity recalled the quantitative easing used during the 2008 financial crisis. Oil and precious metals fell, with palladium entering a bear market as it tumbled more than 20% Thursday.

The stock rout was worldwide, with Europe’s benchmark index down 11% in a record drop. Brazil’s Ibovespa tumbled as much as 20% at one point, extending this year’s loss to almost 50% in dollar terms. Canada’s main gauge was off more than 12%.

With the S&P 500 wiping out all its gains since the end of 2018, investors are trying to guess at the effectiveness of policymakers’ measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus and limit its economic damage. Trump’s travel ban and tepid fiscal measures failed to impress most observers. Spirits were further dampened by new bans on public gatherings in the U.S. and professional sports leagues’ move to suspend operations.

“Markets likely need more. More innovation from central banks, more targeted help for the most vulnerable parts of the economy – and action from fiscal authorities to stop this transitory shock from developing into a more prolonged insolvency crisis,” said Seema Shah, a global investment strategist for Principal Global Investors. “Emotion is now driving markets.”

On another bruising day across markets:

– The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 indexes sank deeper into a bear market, with losses from February closing records extending well past 20%.

– The slump triggered the second 15-minute trading halt this week shortly after the U.S. open.

– The MSCI All-Country World Index extended losses to enter bear-market territory.

– The cost of insuring debt issued by Europe’s investment grade companies surged to the highest since 2013.

– Japanese stocks closed more than 4% lower even after another liquidity pledge from the country’s central bank. Australian shares sunk deeper into a bear market despite a stimulus plan there.

– Oil extended losses toward 5%. Bitcoin slumped. Gold fell below $1,600 an ounce.

More bad news about the impact of the coronavirus further sapped investor spirits. The leading U.S. infectious-disease official said the testing system in the country is “a failing.” The European Union warned that the sickness threatens to exceed health-care capacity across the region “in a few weeks or even days.” The National Hockey League followed the National Basketball Association’s lead and suspended its season, while Major League Baseball said opening day would be delayed.

“We need to see what is effectively a ‘declaration of war’ against the virus and full support to offset the economic damage that war will cost,” said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities. “Whatever has gone on this week, it’s not a liquidity crunch.”

Meanwhile, signs that companies in the hardest-hit industries were drawing down credit lines to battle the effects of the virus on their businesses added to anxiety.

“The risks have definitely risen,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA. “The question is how long will this last and I don’t think anybody can predict that at this point.”

– – –

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 Index declined 9.5% at the close of trading in New York; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 10%.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 11%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 5.3%.

– The MSCI Emerging Market Index sank 6.5%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 1%.

– The euro weakened 0.7%, to $1.1194.

– The Japanese yen fell 0.9%, to 105.45 per dollar.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points, to 0.9%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield fell one basis point, to -0.75%.

– Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points, to 0.26%.

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude declined 5.8%, to $31.07 a barrel.

– Gold weakened 4%, to $1,569.79 an ounce.