One and done, a single rate hike was more than enough

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One and done, a single rate hike was more than enough

Economy March 19, 2019 01:00

By SPECIAL TO THE NATION

AFTER AN extended period of holding the policy rate at 1.50 per cent, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided in December 2018 to raise the policy rate to 1.75 per cent. At the following meeting in February 2019, the committee voted to maintain the policy.

Still, two members out of six voted to raise the policy rate by 25 bps to 2 per cent, implying that a further rate hike is still possible.

However, we believe raising the benchmark rate further would jeopardise economic growth momentum, particularly as the global macro backdrop is turning more challenging. Moreover, an interest rate hike in the current global economic environment would put the Bank of Thailand at odds with other central banks, heightening upward pressure on the baht and suppressing inflation.

In its latest policy statement, the MPC continued to stress that “accommodative monetary policy would remain appropriate in the period ahead”. To better anticipate the MPC’s next move, we first try to assess the current stance of BoT’s monetary policy.

We employ the classic method of estimating the natural rate of interest advocated by Laubach and Williams. It is assumed that the neutral rate is the rate that supports full employment/maximum economic output while keeping inflation constant. Simply put, the neutral rate is the rate at which monetary policy stands neutral between “accommodative” and “tightening”.

Our calculation of a forward-looking natural rate puts the real neutral rate (R*) for the Thai economy at the end of 2019 at 0.95 per cent. With a policy rate of 1.75 per cent and core inflation at 0.7 per cent, the real interest rate is currently in line with R*. This suggests that Thailand’s monetary policy stance is neutral.

At this juncture, further raising the policy rate would shift monetary policy to a tightening stance, which would contradict the MPC’s view that an accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate for the period ahead.

The macroeconomic backdrop is

turning more challenging amid escalating trade tensions and a global economic slowdown. Regardless of the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations, we expect global trade to slow significantly in 2019 as the benefits from front-loading efforts reverse. This is supported by recent data showing that Thailand’s exports have contracted for three consecutive months.

Moreover, an interest rate hike in the current global economic environment would put the Bank of Thailand at odds with other central banks, especially the US federal reserve which has just signalled that it will put further rate hikes on hold.

Raising the benchmark rate further would thus add strengthening pressure on the baht, which will in turn suppress inflation. It is important to note that Thailand’s core inflation rate has been hovering below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range of 1-4 per cent over the past three years.

Contributed by KOMSORN PRAKOBPHOL, head of Tisco Economic Strategy Unit (ESU).

Parties rolling out the goodies

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Parties rolling out the goodies

Economy March 19, 2019 01:00

By THE NATION

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A MINIMUM income guarantee scheme, restructuring of the tax system, increase in minimum wage, price guarantee for agricultural products and boost for industry were some of the many promises that major political parties outlined as part of their election manifestos on the economy at a seminar.

Speaking at the “Shaping the Thai Industry 2025” seminar organised by Federation of Thai Industries, Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva called for the lowering of the country’s logistics costs and the setting up of 12 metropolises nationwide for wealth redistribution.

He said a Democrat government would push reforms for green industry, with manufacturing of automobiles shifting to electric vehicles (EVs). The promotion of an EV production base is also on the election manifesto of Pheu Thai Party.

Abhisit promised to deal with the country’s debt problem, promote savings and bring in a tax system that would be fair with no corruption.

The Democrat also promised an income guarantee scheme to help employees and employers. Under the proposed scheme, an employee must earn a minimum salary of Bt10,000 per month or Bt120,000 per year. An employee earning less than that would be eligible for an allowance from the government for the balance amount.

The Democrat leader promised that in the first 100 days of taking office, his government would boost people’s purchasing power to prop up the Thai economy through price guarantees for agricultural products, a minimum income of Bt120,000 per year for the workforce and an increase in the state welfare card amount to Bt800 per month for purchase at any shops.

Phalang Pracharat Party deputy leader Suvit Maesincee said that Thailand has been trapped in an income gap, which could be solved by boosting national competitiveness through the Thailand 4.0 policy.

If his party were to be in government, it would reform public-sector supervision and restructure the Thai tax system to make the private sector more competitive at the global level, he said.

About 5 million smart SMEs and 1 million smart farmers will be targeted as Thailand’s new economic army, with 30 favourable living cities nationwide, he said.

Biotechnology, renewable energy and the green economy would be boosted to make up 25 per cent of GDP, while the hiring of 20 million skilled and knowledge-based workers would help upgrade Thai manufacturing, he said. Phalang Pracharat Party proposes to gradually raise the minimum daily wage from Bt325 to Bt425 within three years, subject to each area’s economic conditions and capacity.

In the first 100 days after taking office, the party will focus on ensuring stability and peace so as to build confidence in the Thai economy, Suvit said.

Chairwoman of Pheu Thai Party’s election strategy committee Sudarat Keyuraphan said the party would improve the public administration system and crack down on corruption.

The party would engage in trade negotiations with other countries to mitigate risks from trade wars, find more export destinations and promote the relocation of manufacturing bases with technology transfer to Thailand, she said.

In the first 100 days, the party proposes to increase the purchasing power of the main groups such as farmers by raising agricultural prices without imposing a burden on the government, she said. For example, PTT Plc and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand may purchase energy crops.

Non-EEC (Eastern Economic Corridor) manufacturing plants will also be promoted to enjoy the same privileges as those in the EEC, while SMEs will be assisted in debt restructuring, she said. Excise tax on fuel will be cut to help lower production costs and people’s cost of living.

Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul, while expressing confidence that his party would be invited to join the government, aims to promote production and reduce corruption. He vowed that instead of the EEC, industries would be promoted nationwide.

He said that in the first 100 days, he proposes to amend ministerial regulations that hinder trade and business while public spending will be prioritised and public agencies will use locally made products.

Anakot Mai Party or Future Forward Party representative Phicharn Chaowapatanawong said the party is proposing the hyperloop for faster travel instead of the high-speed rail. New industries such as electric bus and EV will be promoted for creation of about 400,000 jobs and these industries would be located in the Northeast, he said.

During the first 100 days, the party will ensure transparency with public disclosure on the website, while personal assets of politicians and high-level state officials will also be disclosed, he said, adding that it aims to reduce disparity by increasing state welfare for newborns and ageing people.

PM touts village fund

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PM touts village fund

Economy March 19, 2019 01:00

By The Nation

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Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday chaired the opening of the “National Fund for People … Reduce Poverty and Inequality” forum, along with Deputy PM Somkid Jatusripitak, PM’s Office Minister Suwapan Tanyuwattana and Director of the National Village and Urban Community Fund Office Natee Klibthong.

In his opening speech, the PM said that over the past three years, the government had injected more than Bt70 billion into the National Village Fund for about 200,000 projects. He claimed it would bring Bt39 billion in cash flow to the economy and Bt8.5 billion in profit to the communities.

As Asean chair, Thailand can help fix WTO, says Canadian trade negotiator

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Stephen de Boer
Stephen de Boer

As Asean chair, Thailand can help fix WTO, says Canadian trade negotiator

business March 19, 2019 00:12

By WICHIT CHAITRONG
THE NATION

10,889 Viewed

CANADIAN and Thai trade negotiators believe the Kingdom can play a leading role in reforming the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to save it from complete collapse.

However, one local economist disagrees, saying it is beyond the capacity of such a small country to save the WTO from a crisis in its multilateral trading system.

Stephen de Boer, Canada’s ambassador and permanent representative to the WTO, said in an exclusive interview with The Nation that Thailand is the 2019 chair of the 10-country Asean trade bloc and its ambassador has assumed the helm of the WTO General Council.

These positions give the Kingdom substantial leverage in WTO reforms, de Boer said.

Sunanta Kangvalkulkij, Thailand’s ambassador to the WTO, is chairing its General Council – its highest-level decision-making body – in Geneva,

“She can influence the way things roll out this year,” de Boer said.

Thailand is among the 90 countries actively supporting the multilateral trading system and is engaging in the reform negotiations, he said, but the process requires input from all 164 members.

Canada recently created “the Ottawa group” of WTO members in a bid to restore public and governmental trust and confidence in the organisation.

“The multilateral trading system is facing significant challenges,” de Boer said. “A lot of people say it’s because of the [Donald] Trump administration, but that’s probably unfair.” Isolationism under President Trump is just one of many challenges confronting the WTO, he said.

WTO members are also mired in the Doha development agenda, talks for which began in 2001. The agricultural sector, specifically, is posing obstacles, though agreement has been reached on export subsidies, environmental clauses and information technology, while negotiations on fishery subsides should be completed by December. Currently, talks are underway on e-commerce.

“We’ve recently faced a challenge regarding the system of resolving disputes, while the US has blocked the appointment of new members to the WTO appellate body,” de Boer said. “There should be seven members, but they are only three right now, dropping to one by December. You need at least three to form a quorum, so the panel will cease being functional.”

He said Canada shared the US view that changes were necessary to improve the WTO, which was founded in 1995. Members are examining what works well and what doesn’t.

However, he agrees with the US that the dispute-settlement mechanism is too legal – too much like a court of law. But, de Boer said, Canada objects to the US tactics of blocking appointments to the appellate body, as it undermines the world trade body.

Regulations governing the appellate are not always clearly worded and prone to contradictory interpretations, as is common in any legal system, he said.

Dispute settlement

“The fundamental question is: Do you believe in the system overall ?” He asked.   “And if you believe in the system, you are willing to abide by a decision you don’t agree with [as well as] abide by a decision you do agree with,” said de Boer.

The US under Trump’s leadership has been taking action unilaterally against China and other countries in trade disputes. This has undermined the multilateral system, which requires members to settle their disputes via the WTO dispute-settlement mechanism.

Trump raised tariff rates against Chinese goods, citing unfair trade practices against US companies as well as China’s continuing high-trade surplus with the US. He has also taken unilateral action against other countries by raising tariffs on imported washing machines, solar panels, steel and aluminium – which is negatively affecting Thailand, EU, Canada, Mexico and other countries. China has retaliated against the US by raising tariffs against US goods.

“We hope the US will return to the WTO,” de Boer added.

In separate interview, Auramon Supthaweethum, director-general at the Department of Trade Negotiations, confirmed to The Nation that Thailand, as Asean chair, will play a greater role in saving the WTO.

The Thai government and WTO held a seminar in Bangkok last week entitled “WTO-Asean Regional Policy Dialogue on WTO Reforms ”. Senior Asean officials will meet in Laos early next month to discuss coordinating collective actions to push for WTO reforms, she said.

“Thailand agrees that it is urgently needed to find solutions to the deadlock in the appellate body before December,” she added.

The economist Sakon Varanyuwatana, however, is sceptical about Thailand’s leadership role at the WTO. “We in Thailand – a small country – cannot do much given that the US, a powerful country, has ignored the multilateral trading system,” he said, adding that many countries have also created trade blocs as an alternative or supplement to the multilateral trading system.

“Thailand should instead focus on negotiating free-trade agreements under RCEP and CPTPP,” Sakon suggested.

SET Well-Being Index set for launch on April 1

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SET Well-Being Index set for launch on April 1

Economy March 18, 2019 20:42

By The Nation

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The Stock Exchange of Thailand plans next month to launch the SET Well-Being Index (SETWB), a new index consisting of listed securities in well-being-related sectors that are key contributors to Thai economic expansion, allowing investors to benefit from the growth potential of these promising sectors.

The SET sectors making up the index are: Agribusiness, Commerce, Fashion, Food and Beverage, Health Care Service, Tourism and Leisure, and Transportation and Logistics.

SET senior executive vice president Rinjai Chakornpipat said on Monday that the SETWB would reflect the performance of highly competitive securities which are instrumental to gross-domestic-product, generating wealth to Thais and the country.

The new index is expected to encourage the development of new products tracking the SETWB, such as exchange-traded funds and mutual funds.

The index is scheduled to launch on April 1, and to be reviewed every six months.

The top 30 stocks that are qualified and have that highest market capitalisation will be used in the calculation of the SETWB, while those stocks ranking 31st to 35th by market value will be placed on a reserve list, Rinjai said.

In addition, the SET will cap the maximum weight of each constituent in the SETWB to 10 per cent in each quarter.

The calculation for the first set of the SETWB Index will be based on information during the 12-month period from December 1, 2017 to November 30, 2018, the bourse executive added.

Thailand’s policy interest rate to remain unchanged

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Thailand’s policy interest rate to remain unchanged

Economy March 18, 2019 20:35

By The Nation

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Kasikorn Research Centre said the Monetary Policy Committee, in a meeting on March 20, chose to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.75 per cent, especially since the country’s economy still faces uncertainty from local and foreign factors.

 

However, the centre believes that the committee will increase the policy interest rate once the country’s economic environment changes.

State banks approve loans worth Bt1.4 billion for start-ups

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30366049

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State banks approve loans worth Bt1.4 billion for start-ups

Economy March 18, 2019 18:55

By The Nation

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The number of start-ups registered at http://startupthailand.org had reached 1,700 at the end of last month, the Finance Ministry’s National Start-up Committee announced on Monday.

The Government Savings Bank, the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Bank and Krungthai Bank had also approved loans for start-ups worth Bt1.42 billion by February 28, Pornchai Theeravet, financial adviser at the Fiscal Policy Office and acting deputy spokesman of the ministry, said after a meeting of the committee.

Some 144 small and medium-sized enterprises and new start-ups have also had tax incentives approved by the National Science and Technology Development Agency, he added.

Mekong secretariat to strengthen information sharing

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Mekong secretariat to strengthen information sharing

Economy March 18, 2019 18:51

By The Nation

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The Mekong River Commission (MRC) Secretariat is improving its data, modelling and information systems to provide enhanced and timely information to the public and the MRC member countries — Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam — according to the secretariat’s top management.

The Mekong River Commission (MRC) Secretariat is improving its data, modelling and information systems to provide enhanced and timely information to the public and the MRC member countries — Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam — according to the secretariat’s top management.

“Our primary goal is to provide faster reactions to address emerging changes such as climate change or sudden water release from reservoirs in the Lancang-Mekong river basin, track basin state and development, and strengthen one of the MRC’s key roles as the regional knowledge hub,” MRC Secretariat chief executive officer An Pich Hatda said on Monday.

Thailand’s global IP score rises in US Chamber of Commerce index

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Thailand’s global IP score rises  in US Chamber of Commerce index

Economy March 18, 2019 17:13

By The Nation

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Thailand’s overall score in the Global Intellectual Property Centre (GIPC) Index, compiled by the US Chamber of Commerce, increased to 32.22 per cent (derived from a mark of 14.5 out of 45) in the seventh edition of the index, from 31.37 per cent (12.55 out of 40) in the prior edition.

This was driven by relatively strong performance in regard to new indicators added to the index and an improvement in the “effective border measures” indicators, according to the chamber’s “Inspiring Tomorrow” report, issued on Monday.

The GIPC 2019 IP Index was recently released to benchmark the intellectual-property system in 50 global economies, including 15 in Asia.

The ranking is based on eight categories of indicators that are critical to an innovation-led economy supported by robust patent, trademark, copyright and trade-secrets protection.

Rules on ICOs to boost confidence of investors

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30365968

Sin
Sin

Rules on ICOs to boost confidence of investors

Economy March 18, 2019 01:00

By PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT
THE NATION

2,099 Viewed

The Security and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) increasing role in regulating Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) will boost investors’ confidence in the new fund-raising method, according to an expert in blockchain.

“Instead of letting individual parties conduct their own ICOs, it is better to have an official process of collecting the relevant information as it will provide more protection for investors,” said Paul Sin, a consulting partner with Deloitte China and Deloitte’s Asia Pacific Blockchain Lab Leader based in Hong Kong.

ICOs are a fundraising method for cryptocurrency companies, similar to initial public offerings (IPOs). However, more often than not, they are not regulated by a central government agency with cryptocurrency companies tending to bypass the rigorous and regulated capital-raising process required of venture capitalists or banks.

The SEC has proposed rules for data submission from digital asset business operators and ICO portals. The proposal aimed to promote a clear understanding and a standardised protocol for monitoring and supervision of digital asset businesses as well as reducing the need for data submission on a case-by-case basis, the regulator said.

Under the SEC proposal, information required by its office are, firstly, transaction data including the volume and proportion of allocated digital tokens, allocation price, trading orders, trading price and volume, transactions related to deposit withdrawal and the transfer of digital assets or money. Secondly, the profile data of customer, company and product profile must also be submitted to the watchdog.

Enforcing regulations on the process of ICOs, however, comes with the risk of discouraging cryptocurrency startups who may move their offerings abroad, said Achari Suppiroj, director of the SEC’s fintech division, in a separate interview with The Nation last year.

“Our challenge is to strike a balance in the regulatory framework for cryptocurrency startups not to be discouraged while investors feel safe investing in ICOs,” she said.

Meanwhile, Sin did not expect the proposed measures would pose a barrier for smaller firms planning an ICOs.

“I do not think the proposed regulations would make it more difficult for them. If there is no regulation, there is no protection for investors, and they will feel skeptical about investing in ICOs,” Sin said, adding that the lack of investor confidence is more of a negative factor than official regulations.

“When firms are checked and regulated, investors will be more confident. That is better for the market,” he said.

“However, there will always be risks in investing in ICOs,” he said.  Investors should be well-informed on their target of investment and not solely dependent on government regulations, Sin concluded.