61% of Thai economy to be ‘digitalised’ by 2022: IDC

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61% of Thai economy to be ‘digitalised’ by 2022: IDC

Economy February 25, 2019 19:01

By The Nation

IDC on Monday unveiled its top predictions for Thailand’s information-technology industry for this year and beyond, predicting that by 2022 more than 61 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product will be digitalised.

By that time, growth in every industry will be driven by digitally enhanced offerings, operations and relationships, driving US$72 billion (Bt2.25 trillion) in IT-related spending from 2019 through 2022, the Thai arm of the US-based market-intelligence company said.

IDC believes the digitalised economy will lead to more intense competition, especially when digital disruptors are heavily penetrating the local market.

Therefore, it urges business leaders to embrace emerging technologies in order to gain opportunities with the rise of the new digital-transformation economy.

Local organisations should move towards becoming digitally determined entities, which are organisations that demonstrate the ability to visualise how the markets and customers will change and reinvent themselves to better respond to the needs of these future stakeholders through new and emerging technologies, capabilities and business models.

“The race to reinvent is inevitable, and we foresee a steady growth in adoption of emerging technologies in the country, mainly because Thailand is working to improve economic growth by shifting its economy from an industry-driven country to one that is driven by high-tech innovations,” said Anchalee Sudechawongsakul, software market analyst for IDC Thailand.

“Innovation will continue to disrupt every industry and business leader should focus on technologies that enable business outcomes. This is the right time to realise that enabling the digital industry will drive other industries to grow as well,” the analyst added.

PLENTY OF FACTORS TO ENABLE SET GAIN GROUND

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30364673

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PLENTY OF FACTORS TO ENABLE SET GAIN GROUND

Economy February 25, 2019 01:00

We remain positive on the Thai stock market, targeting the SET Index at 1,750 points due to consistent economic recovery, improved domestic demand and easing macroeconomic pressure including the US yield curve, progress in the US-China trade negotiations and rise in crude prices.

The SET Index is currently not expensive with average market price to earnings ratio in 2019 and 2020, based on Bloomberg consensus, at 14.7 and 13.5 times. We believe the SET Index has risen from its bottom of 1,570 points and investors who bought at that level have received risk compensation.

We expect the SET Index to be relatively steady until the result announcement period passes. Net profit combined for the fourth quarter of 2018 decreased to Bt62.5 billion, down 29 per cent year on year, and by 32 per cent quarter on quarter, about 11 and 18 per cent respectively.

So far, about 85 listed companies have yet to announce their 4Q18 results. If more listed companies announced lower-than-expected net profit, the SET Index may not rise following its regional peers in light of the global situation.

The other risk to earnings results is the new accounting standard conditioning the period of payment to retired people – rising from 300 days to 400 days for those with working period equal or over 20 years. We expect this matter to impact listed companies at the level of 5 per cent if they had allowance provision of 30 per cent in Q418. The effect may be less if a company chose to deduct that part from the shareholders’ equities, as it will not affect its profit/loss reporting.

The major risks are a Fed with a hawkish view, failure in US-China trade talks and local unrest after the election even though the possibilities are low. – Passakorn Linmaneechote, deputy managing director/Research, Kasikorn Securities

UPSIDE LIKELY FOR BOURSE

Last week, listed companies accounting for about 65 per cent of total market capitalisation announced their 4Q18 earnings results, totalling Bt122 billion.

However, when all listed firms have announced their results, combined net profit may come lower than expected at Bt250 billion to Bt260 billion due mainly to stock losses as a result of drops in the prices of commodities, particularly oil-related items.

The market earnings per share (EPS) could slide to Bt103-Bt105, compared to an earlier estimate at Bt108.6. Meanwhile, signs for downward revision of the 2019 EPS target have not appeared. This year’s market EPS growth is forecast at 6.9-8.9 per cent to Bt112.2.

Foreign investors remain positive on the Thai bourse, as more capital has moved from safe-haven assets to risky assets amid signs of a return of foreign investment to the Asian stock markets. In light of lower-than-normal foreign holding of Thai stocks and the upcoming Thai election, there’s a chance for foreign capital, the most important drive, to flow into the Thai stock market. Externally, situations remain positive, especially the US-China trade talks.

The SET Index is estimated to see more upside than downside. It’s a good time to accumulate stocks. We pick stocks with high dividend yield such as LH, BBL, MAJOR, THANI and TTW. – Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, executive vice president / Research, Asia Plus Securities

Mega-projects to hike public debt

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30364679

Credit: EEC Office
Credit: EEC Office

Mega-projects to hike public debt

Economy February 25, 2019 01:00

By WICHIT CHAITRONG
THE NATION

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RISING government spending on mega-projects, which are deemed crucial to economic growth, will further increase the country’s public debt, economists said with some asking the military to be more efficient in its spending.

Continuous public funding of infrastructure projects – including the Eastern Economic Corridor(EEC), new roads and double-track rail systems nationwide – would entail an expansion of annual budget deficits in the medium term, said Pisit Puapan, senior economist on macroeconomic policy at the Fiscal Policy Office under the Finance Ministry. He was speaking at a seminar hosted by Kasikornbank last week.

Public debt is forecast to reach almost 49 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, up from the current level of 42 per cent, he said.

The country has long run fiscal deficits as government revenues have failed to meet investment demand, social welfare payouts and other expenditure.

For fiscal year 2020, starting from October 1, the government plans to spend a total of Bt3.2 trillion, compared to Bt3 trillion this year.

The government is expected to post a budget deficit of Bt450 billion, the same amount as the current fiscal year.

Investment will rise in order to make up for decades of under-spending since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, he said.

Public investment is forecast at Bt691.2 billion for fiscal year 2020, up from Bt660.3 billion in 2019.

However, Pisit was not concerned about the government’s fiscal policy and expected the next administration to continue the uptrend in investment despite the risk of higher public debt.

The Finance Ministry plans to cap public debt at below 60 per cent of GDP, a level considered prudential and safe.

Pisit refused to comment on Pheu Thai Party’s proposal to cut the military budget by 10 per cent, in order to prioritise government spending and provide more funding to startups and young entrepreneurs.

The proposal recently sparked heated debates among the public while drawing anger from the military top brass.

In a separate interview, Somchai Jitsuchon, research director at the Thailand Development Research Institute, said the next parliament should set up an independent panel on defence spending and military reform.

“It should hire credible individuals or a reputable international organisation to evaluate the professional capabilities of the Thai military,” he told The Nation.

Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political scientist at Thammasat University, agreed with the need for a military reform, saying “it should be more accountable in spending and defence of the country”.

Somjai told The Nation he did not know the appropriate budget allocation for the military but stressed the need for reform given the changes in the global equilibrium.

“Although Thailand does not face any threat of war, it still requires a strong military to maintain the country’s bargaining power on the global stage”, he explained.

With regard to the proposals of some candidates for the upcoming election to cancel the annual military conscription, Somjai said recruitment of soldiers should be on a voluntary basis.

Meanwhile, Pisit of the Fiscal Policy Office said the economy faced the challenge of a global economic slowdown and its negative impact on Thai exports. The Finance Ministry forecast economic growth of 4 per cent this year, slipping from 4.1 per cent in 2018.

Kobsidthi Silpachai, the head of market and economic research at Kasikornbank, said at the same seminar that the baht would remain strong due largely to the country’s high current account surplus and under-investment.

However, he warned about the high level of Thai household debt – currently standing at Bt12.6 trillion or 206 per cent of their combined net annual income.

The country is fast approaching an ageing society and workers have limited time for higher incomes, he said.

TMB Bank looks into opportunities of EEC

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30364573

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TMB Bank looks into opportunities of EEC

Economy February 22, 2019 15:20

By The Nation

TMB Bank recently hosted a seminar on the ‘Analysis of Thai Economy for the arrival of Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) in digital era’ for business clients.

The bank said in a press release on Friday that for 2019, Thai businesses were recommended to start securing new markets, enhance brand differentiation through innovation, strengthen supply chain, and most significantly consider investing in EEC, an industrial area of the future which offers abundant business opportunities and government incentives.

TMB projected a major world economic slowdown in 2019 influenced by key factors: leading indicators of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) signalling the global economy being in ‘Late Economic Cycle’, falling energy prices and global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) since 2018, and China’s slowdown due to the ongoing trade war with US, extremely high debt level of 267 per cent of GDP and dropping national wealth pulled by a Bear market.

The bank said that Thailand’s economy in 2019 will expand with domestic demands as key driver. GDP of 2019 is projected to be at 3.8 per cent, a slight drop from 4.0 per cent in 2018, with growing private consumption as a main supportive factor.

Thai export growth is expected to decrease to 4.3 per cent YoY from 6.7 per cent YoY in 2018 due to global economic slowdown particularly of China, Thai-US trade war (No GSP), and the effects from prolonged US-China trade war.

Key exports include auto and auto parts, electronics and computer parts, machinery, foods and agro-products respectively.

Meanwhile, tourism growth is estimated to rise to 6.6 per cent YoY in 2019 from 6.4 per cent YoY in a year earlier. Around 40.2 million inbound tourists are projected.

Although in late 2018 Thailand faced negative monthly growth rates of Chinese tourists, this year the country’s tourism would expand well with tourists from Asean, East Asia and US as dominant visitors.

Close to half of Asean CEOs see slowdown in global growth

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30364526

Close to half of Asean CEOs see slowdown in global growth

Economy February 22, 2019 01:00

By   SIRIVISH TOOMGUM
THE NATION

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NEARLY HALF of chief executive officers in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean ) expected a decline in global economic growth in 2019, according to PwC’s 22nd Annual Global CEO Survey.

The PwC survey of 1,378 CEOs across 91 countries, included 78 CEOs from Asean. The survey was conducted between September and October 2018.

Asean member economies surveyed include only Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The survey was already revealed in the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos last month. It was revealed in Thailand yesterday with the focus on Asean CEOs views.

Nearly half of Asean CEOs, or 46 per cent, surveyed between September and October 2018, believe global economic growth will decline this year. That’s up from 10 per cent in last year’s survey – a record jump in pessimism.

Similarly, 28 per cent of business leaders globally believe that global economic growth would slow, compared with just 5 per cent last year.

Still, all is not doom and gloom: 42 per cent of global CEOs still see an improved economic outlook, though this is down from a high of 57 per cent in 2018.

Sira Intarakumthornchai, CEO for PwC Thailand, said yesterday that this year’s survey reflects the bearish views of CEOs, who see the global outlook trending downward. They view the U.S.-China trade conflict and widespread geopolitical uncertainty – including over-regulation – as major risk factors.

“On top of this, we found that Asean CEOs are even more pessimistic than their global peers. This is the opposite of what we’ve seen in the past, as CEOs in this region are usually quite optimistic.”

Asean CEOs ranked trade conflicts as the biggest threat to their organisation’s growth prospects at 83 per cent. That was followed by geopolitical uncertainty at 81 per cent, policy uncertainty at 78 per cent, over-regulation at 77 per cent and global economic volatility at 73 per cent, the PwC Survey showed.

Lingering trade concerns between the US and China have prompted a majority of CEOs in Asean to adjust their supply chain and sourcing strategy (29 per cent) and delay capital expenditure (29 per cent). Some 17 per cent are shifting their growth strategy to alternative markets such as Indonesia and Vietnam.

The unease about global economic growth has also hit confidence among CEOs about their company’s revenue outlook in the short term. Only 33 per cent of Asean CEOs said they’re “very confident” about their organisation’s growth prospects this year, down from 44 per cent previously. In the medium term, just 39 per cent believe their revenue will increase over the next three years, down from 53 per cent a year ago.

In the new data-driven world, 82 per cent of Asean CEOs are concerned about availability of key skills, primarily digital skills that are hard to find and in high demand. That’s followed by cyber threats (81 per cent) and speed of technological change (72 per cent).

“The availability of key skills is a huge problem for Asean,” Sira said. “With a lack of skilled talent, businesses are going to miss out on lots of opportunities: competitive advantages, product and service development and market expansion.”

Asean CEOs are aware of the impact of Artificial intelligence (AI) on business operations, Sira said. In fact, 87 per cent of Asean CEOs expect AI will dramatically change their business over the next five years, and 72 per cent say it will have an even larger impact on the world than the internet revolution.

Still, 36 per cent of Asean CEOs currently have no plans to pursue AI. While 32 per cent have plans to do so in the next three years, another 28 per cent have already adopted AI but at a limited scope and just 4 per cent have included and implemented AI on a wider scale.

One of the reasons why a vast majority of CEOs are still reluctant to adopt AI is partly because they struggle with closing the skills gap, Sira said. “They can’t find enough workers with the skills and capability to work with AI-based technology.”

He suggested that in an age where robotics and automation are disrupting the way businesses operate, all need to constantly retrain and upskill workforces with digital knowledge, as well as data analytical and reasoning capabilities.

Adding value is key to moving Thailand to next

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“The key challenge for reforming Thailand’s economic structure is that for so long, we have been functioning as a low value driven economy, producing and exporting only raw materials for other countries to transform,” Somkid said.
“The key challenge for reforming Thailand’s economic structure is that for so long, we have been functioning as a low value driven economy, producing and exporting only raw materials for other countries to transform,” Somkid said.

Adding value is key to moving Thailand to next

Economy February 22, 2019 01:00

By   PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT
THE NATION

ADDING value to Thai products by increasing the connectivity between the agriculture, manufacturing and tourism industries is key to achieving economic growth in 2019 and beyond, said deputy prime minister Somkid Jatusripitak during a meeting yesterday with the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).

Meanwhile, the NESDC’s secretary-general, Thosaporn Sirisumphand, presented the economic advisory body’s plan to develop special economic corridors in the northern, northeastern and southern regions of Thailand.

“Thailand should focus on the local economy, particularly, uplifting the agriculture industry and bio-economy through transforming raw materials into higher value products,” said Somkid. There is a high level of urgency to strengthen the Kingdom’s local economies in the midst of the weakening of exports seen in 2018, he added.

“The key challenge for reforming Thailand’s economic structure is that for so long, we have been functioning as a low-value driven economy, producing and exporting only raw materials for other countries to transform and create additional value to,” the deputy PM stated.

He suggested the economic goal for 2019 and subsequent years should be to ensure cooperation between agriculture and manufacturing industries in harvesting and transforming raw materials into high-value goods. He urged the NESDC to echo this sentiment to the ministries of agriculture and industry, and emphasised the need for the two government bodies to work together on this issue.

“If we can achieve this, it will generate additional income for the 20 million workers who are in the agriculture industry and uplift the country’s living standards,” he claimed.

“Furthermore, to make Thai goods part of the global value chain, we need to incorporate the tourism industry into our strategy,” he said. “This would be through using the development of high-speed trains to attract tourists to local areas.

“Through connecting these three key industries, we will be able to uplift the grassroots economy and make high-value Thai products part of the global value chain,” he told the NESDC attendees. The body’s current economic development plan is on the right path, he told them, but needs to be more specific in suggesting key policies to the government’s ministries.

Meanwhile, the NESDC’s secretary-general, Thosaporn Sirisumphand, presented the body’s plan to Somkid. The economic plan consisted of blueprints for three key economic corridors: the Southern Economic Corridor (SEC), the Northern Economic Corridor (NEC) and the Northeastern Economic Corridor (NeEC).

For example, the SEC aims to integrate the three key industries through using high-speed rail to connect the port of Ranong through to the different coastal areas in the province of Chumphon and down to the bio-economy province of Surat Thani.

This would widen the spread of tourism in the Southern Economic Corridor and integrate the development of the agriculture, manufacturing and tourism industries, Thosaporn told the room.

The NEC will focus on attracting tourism with its “Creative Lanna Cluster” that includes the provinces of Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lamphun and Lampang, and carries the brand of “Lanna Heritage”.

The NeEC will focus mostly on strengthening the region’s bio-economy, with the “Bio-Economy Cluster,” which will be geared towards developing high-quality processed agricultural goods as well as areas designated for growing premium jasmine rice.

The “Bio-Economy Cluster” in the NeEC includes the provinces of the central-northeastern region. In this cluster, the provinces of Khon Kaen, Nakhon Ratchasima and Ubon Ratchathani are designated “Bio-Economy Nodes”. Those key provinces will concentrate on transforming raw materials into high-value goods.

Thosaporn did not reveal the budget required to develop each of the economic corridors in the upcoming years, saying that the budget details of the economic development plans have yet to be finalised.

He then echoed Somkid’s concerns, saying that the Thai government will need to focus on the local economy by creating added value to raw materials and promoting tourism in smaller cities.

SIGNING FOR GAS PRODUCTION SHARING

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30364535

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SIGNING FOR GAS PRODUCTION SHARING

Economy February 22, 2019 01:00

By The Nation

Energy Minister Siri Jirapongphan will sign production sharing contracts with the winners of the Erawan (G1/61) concession and Bongkot (G2/61) concession on February 25.

PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP), through its subsidiary PTTEP Energy Development, and its partner, the UAE’s Mubadala Petroleum, won the bid for the Erawan gas block and PTTEP Energy Development won a solo bid for the Bongkot gas field.

LAND EXPROPRIATION

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30364536

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LAND EXPROPRIATION

Economy February 22, 2019 01:00

By The Nation

State Railway of Thailand (SRT) plans to go ahead with land expropriation of 850 rai for the high-speed railway project to connect the country’s three main airports, said Voravuth Mala, SRT’s acting governor.

Now, SRT is awaiting a royal decree which will define areas of land for the expropriation. The project’s environmental impact assessment is undergoing, he added.

Confidence on trade pact goal

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30364537

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Confidence on trade pact goal

Economy February 22, 2019 01:00

By THE NATION

TRADE chiefs are confident of  achieving their goal of helping to finalise the terms of a free-trade pact that would link the Asean countries with six other Asia-Pacific states by the end of this year.

  With Thailand chairing the regional bloc this year, officials have set a year-end target for agreement on how the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will operate. The countries to join the Asean states in the multilateral free-trade framework are Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.

Auramon Supthaweethum, director-general of the Department of Trade Negotiations, said that a negotiation committee for the RCEP has been meeting in Bali since February 19. The talks are scheduled to conclude on February 28. The meeting is the 25th to be held with the aim of the guiding the negotiations to a close.

The discussions involve seeking a conclusion to the pact’s 13 chapters, extending from trade in products, and services to investment, the rules of origin, trade remedies, the movement of natural persons and intellectual property, e-commerce, and competition laws.

Under this framework, seven chapters have been finalised. They cover sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical regulations, institutions, customs procedures and trade facilitation, government procurement, economic and technical cooperation, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

“After the Bali meeting, RCEP members will report the results to RCEP ministers in the seventh special RCEP ministerial meeting on March 2 in Siem Reap, Cambodia, for giving guidelines to the negotiation teams,” Auramon said.

“All parties are committed to seeing the negotiations reach their conclusion this year. Thailand, as Asean chair, targets to conclude RCEP negotiations before the end of this year and speed up the action plans further.”

She said Thailand has placed great stress on achieving a conclusion on the RCEP terms this year, and Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak had given policy direction to this end on February 8 when he visited officials at the Ministry of Commerce.

Somkid had told them that, with Thailand’s chairing of Asean, the country must speed up discussions with the other prospective member countries. He had cited the need for solutions to be reached and for the parties to set a balance of mutual benefits among the member countries.

During Thailand’s term as Asean chair, three economic issues have been targeted for success this year, Auramon said. These are future orientation, enhanced connectivity that includes the target for RCEP’s conclusion this year, and for sustainability in all dimensions.

Adul Chotinisakorn, director-general of the Department of Foreign Trade, said that Asean has agreed to adjust the self-certification terms in the Asean Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) in major issues – a good track record, back-to-back self-certification and statement – at Asean’s recent Inter-Session Meeting SC-AROO.

Earlier, Asean had a memorandum of understanding for two pilot projects on rules of origin, which later was combined into one project so-called the Asean Wide Self-Certification (AWSC). The project aims to promote self-certification and gain exporters’ confidence.

After an adjustment on its estimated completion by July, AWSC is expected to come into force around March next year.

So far, 207 exporters have registered in the first pilot project and 110 exporters registered in the second stage of the pilot project.

Chinese tourists biggest spenders in Thailand during New Year holiday

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30364519

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Chinese tourists biggest spenders in Thailand during New Year holiday

Economy February 21, 2019 16:22

By The Nation

Spending by Chinese tourists during the Chinese New Year holiday was the highest in Thailand according to Alipay, a leading digital payment platform offered by Ant Financial, an affiliate of Alibaba Group.

The transactions were recorded between February 4 and 10, and data drawn from the 54 markets where Alipay is accepted.

The number of transactions in Thailand ranked second worldwide after Hong Kong, and topped the list in Southeast Asia with an average spending of 1,646 yuan (Bt7,650).

The high spending was put down to convenience stores and duty-free shops accepting Alipay and offering special promotions for Alipay users. King Power recorded a 50 per cent increase in transactions thanks to discounts for Alipay users, while transactions at convenience stores also rose by 38 per cent due to their “Alipay corner”.

Chinese visitors are also now able to get tax refunds at 7-Eleven branches in the capital.