Pisit Puapan, director of the Bureau of Macroeconomic Policy under the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) and the FPO’s deputy spokesman, said the economy is expected to further expand at a growth rate of 3.3 per cent during the quarter as domestic demands grow while exports remain steady and the number of foreign tourists increase.

The ministry is waiting for December’s economic indicators to see whether this year’s growth will reach 4.5 per cent as expected, he said.

The FPO will announce the actual figures in January .

November’s consumption expanded as reflected in the 5.2 per cent increase in domestic value added tax (VAT) and a 15.5 per cent rise in the collection of import VAT, while higher export is also expected, Pisit said.

Passenger car sales in November jumped 12.8 per cent year on year while VAT at constant prices advanced 9.6 per cent to a 4-month high. Import of consumer products climbed 9.4 per cent.

Private investment grew, led by a 26.9 per cent rise in commercial vehicle sales for the 17th straight month in a row.

On the construction front, property tax edged up 2.1 per cent and domestic cement sales increased 5.4 per cent, a rise for the seventh straight month from March.

However, Thai exports in November contracted 0.95 per cent to US$21.2 billion, led by shipments of agricultural and agro-industry products such as beverages, tapioca and canned tuna. Imports totalled $22.4 billion during the month.

The number of foreign tourists to Thailand increased 4.5 per cent to 3.18 million, led by a 44.6 per cent surge in Malaysian visitors to 41-month high. Tourism income went up 5.18 per cent to Bt167.42 billion.

Private consumption and private investment will be the major catalyst for growth, helping to offset the slowdown in external demand, they say. The expectation of clearer economic policies after Thailand’s general election should help build confidence among domestic and foreign investors, the report predicts.

Somprawin Manprasert, the Krungsri head of research and chief economist, said, “Domestic spending will play a more important role in driving the economy next year. Private consumption is likely to enter the upcycle after the capacity utilisation rate of several industries hit multi-year highs.

Driven by the acceleration of public-private partnerships (PPP fast track), the investment in infrastructure mega projects is expected to reach Bt281 billion in 2019 from Bt98 billion in 2018.

“In addition, Thailand will benefit from an increase in foreign direct investments, partly due to the relocation to avoid negative impact from the US-China trade war,” Somprawin said.

Private consumption is expected to continue its growth momentum, said Somprawin, driven by a rise in both farm and non-farm incomes, and an increase in non-farm employment. In addition, accelerating investment in mega projects, the increasing budget for welfare cardholders and several supporting projects to help specific groups including farmers, the aged and SMEs, will encourage domestic consumption and investment.

After strong growth during the past two consecutive years, Krungsri Research predicts the growth of Thai exports is likely to be moderate at 4.5 per cent in 2019, reflecting the slowdown in the global economy and the impacts of trade protectionism between the US and China.

However, Thailand could benefit from trade with high-growth countries in Asia.

Thai tourism is also likely to recover from late 2018 after the government exempted visa-on-arrival fees for tourists from 21 countries including China and India.

Moreover, the sector is expected to benefit from the rising middle class in Asia and the capacity expansion of major airports to serve the rising number of tourists.

BGrimm Power prepares for further expansion

BGrimm Power Plc (BGRIM)’s solar power development projects have made headway according to plans to consolidate its capacity build-up.

Three out of the seven ground-mounted solar farms sponsored by BGRIM for government agencies and agricultural cooperatives in Thailand, with a total installed capacity of 10.8 megawatts, were brought on line commercially and synchronised with the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA)’s grid during December 3 to 25.

The remaining four solar farms, with a combined capacity of 20 MWs, were successfully synchronised with the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA)’s system and due for commercial delivery on December 28.

With the latest addition from those seven solar farms, the SET-listed firm closed 2018 with combined capacity equity of 2,076 MWs, up by 26 per cent from the previous year, and strengthening BGRIM’s position as one of Thailand’s leading private power producers, BGRIM president Preeyanart Soontornwata said.

Meanwhile, BGRIM’s ongoing solar energy projects in Vietnam, with a total installed capacity of 677 MWs, have progressed satisfactorily in construction, said Preeyanart.

The Dau Tieng 1 and Dau Tieng 2 solar plants in Tay Ninh, in Vietnam’s southwest, and whose combined capacity of 420 MWs will make them the largest facility of its kind in Southeast Asia, have advanced by 42 per cent.

The 257-MW solar photovoltaic power project in Phu Yen province, on the south-central coast of Vietnam, is 36 per cent completed, with commercial start-up in mid-2019 now confirmed.

In view of the start-up of various new power generation projects in 2019, including the solar farms in Vietnam, the Nam Che hydropower scheme in Laos and the waste-to-energy scheme, BGRIM’s capacity portfolio may be more notable with 2,737 MW, a 34 per cent jump from 2018.

“Due to its size, finishing the RCEP negotiations is going to be the top priority for us.

As the chair of the Asean summits in 2019, Thailand has listed the completion of the RCEP negotiations as one of our 12 deliverables,” said Auramon Supthaweethum, director-general of the Department of Trade Negotiations (DTN) under the Commerce Ministry.

If negotiations are successful, RCEP will be the largest multilateral trade pact in history – encompassing China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the 10 Asean nations.

The combined gross domestic product of prospective RCEP members accounts for up to 28 per cent of global GDP, she said, and as much as 30 per cent of the value of world trade.

The RCEP negotiations will cover 20 chapters of an agreement document, seven of which have been completed.

Thailand aims to swiftly guide the talks for the completion of the remaining 13 chapters by the end of next year, Auramon said.

Meanwhile, Thailand has begun talks with Sri Lanka, Turkey and Pakistan on arranging bilateral FTA agreements with the respective countries. “We aim to finish drafting the terms of the FTAs with the three countries by the end of 2019, and we expect the FTAs will be signed |and enacted in 2020,” Auramon |said.

“Thailand has a promising potential to expand our trade with these three countries. These are rapidly growing markets with a high demand for various Thai exports. Furthermore, Thai goods are perceived as high quality products by consumers in these countries,” she said.

Four meetings with each country

There will be at least four meetings with each country in 2019 to finalise the terms of the three bilateral FTAs.

The FTAs will address issues such as liberalising trade in goods and services, opening up markets to investors from both countries, and implementing regulations such as intellectual property protection and anti-dumping measures, she said.

Thailand primarily exports goods such as dried fish and rubber to these destinations. Thai investors in the hospitality and construction industries have also expressed an interest to invest in the three countries, according to the director-general.

Thailand’s combined goods exports to the three countries significantly exceeds the value of imports from them.

In the first 11 months of 2018, the Thai-Pakistan trade value stood at $1.58 billion (Bt51.38 billion), with Thailand exporting up to $1.386 billion (Bt45.08 billion) and importing only $194 million (Bt6.308 billion). The Thai-Turkey trade value for the first 11 months of 2018 reached up to $1.334 billion, with exports up at $1.022 billion and imports at $312 million.

Meanwhile, Thailand’s trade value with Sri Lanka was the smallest, with figures at only $482 million in trade value from January to November this year. Thailand exported $403 million while importing only $79 million worth of goods from Sri Lanka, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

The DTN has aimed for the Thailand-Turkey annual trade value to reach $20 billion in 2020, and for the Thai-Sri Lanka annual trade value to triple to $15 billion in 2020. The target trade value for |Thai-Pakistan trade has yet to be revealed.

In a broad assessment of the potential hazards to the country’s financial stability, the central bank reiterated its concerns over the prospect of a glut in housing, with the BOT’s worries sharpened by the highly volatile global and local financial markets.

The risk assessment is an outcome of the joint meeting between the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the Financial Institutions Policy Committee (FIPC) on December 21, according to a central bank statement issued yesterday. The BOT said that Thailand’s financial stability remained sound. Economic growth continued to gain traction, while banks and insurance companies have maintained high capital buffers. Thailand’s external stability remained solid given its high level of international reserves, continued current account surplus, and low external debt.

These factors helped cushion the spillover from recent bouts of volatility in global financial markets. However, there remained some pockets of risks that could have notable implications for financial stability, two of which were highlighted by the committees.

First, risks in the real estate sector were underlined. Despite some signs of improvement in the housing loan market, there continued to be a need to monitor banks’ lending standards, households’ debt serviceability, a possible slowdown in foreign demand notably from China, and a surge in supply due to new mixed-use projects, said the central bank statement.

Risks arising from intense competition in the housing loan market, which had led to lenient lending practices, were addressed to some degree by the new macroprudential measure on housing loans, said the BOT.

Foreign demand, notably from China, had been gaining significance in the condominium market over the past few years. This exposed the Thai real estate market to a possible drag from foreign demand due to China’s economic slowdown. For the supply side, office and retail space could pick up sharply due to new mixed-use projects especially from 2020 onwards, the committees warned.

Second, the search-for-yield behaviour, which could lead to underpricing of risks, continued to persist – especially in savings cooperatives and large conglomerates. Investment abroad by fixed income funds remained highly concentrated in a small number of destination countries and institutions. Although these countries and institutions possessed high credit ratings and foreign exchange risk was properly hedged, such concentration could make these fixed-income funds sensitive to country and counterparty risks, warned the BOT.

The search-for-yield behaviour via savings cooperatives continued to be present, as reflected in high growth of deposits and investments in securities.

In addition, some large savings cooperatives raised additional funds via short-term borrowings to invest in securities, which could translate into additional liquidity and market risks. The committees viewed that the draft of the Cooperatives Act, which had been approved by the National Legislative Assembly, would serve as a good starting point in enhancing the supervision of cooperatives. But the committees saw that further improvements were urgently needed in the areas of risk management and governance.

Large conglomerates had been raising funds actively during the period of low interest rates, and some of them appeared to channel more investment to non-core businesses and abroad. Such developments could make it difficult to assess risks related to large conglomerates, which could lead to underpricing of risks. Moreover, some conglomerates expanded their issuances of perpetual bonds to raise funds. The Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission has been monitoring this trend closely and emphasising that complete information on associated risks must be provided to investors.

In the committees’ view, risks related to large conglomerates must be monitored regularly, given their interconnections with the financial system at large due to their complex structure and growing funding activity via loans and debt securities, said the statement.

In the periods ahead, Thailand’s financial system could still face several risk factors. Chief among them are heightened volatility in global financial markets, uncertainties in G3 countries’ economic and monetary policies, trade protectionism measures, as well as geopolitical risks. The debt serviceability of households and SMEs in certain industries will be closely monitored, the statement added.

This will help encourage people to buy up to 1.2 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and battery electric vehicles by the year 2021, BOI’s deputy secretary-general Chokedee Kaewsang said yesterday.

You might think that customer experience is a new concept for 20th century company like Apple.

Forrester, US giant research company, found that “by 2016, 89 per cent of companies expect to compete mostly on the basis of customer experience, versus 36 per cent four years ago.” This trend, which still increases, is having a high impact throughout every unit of supply chain in business, from products to sales, to marketing, and to customer service. Hence, customer experience is the today’s battle ground to be differentiated from other competitors, but how can a brand capture and quantify any customer experience so that it can improve the customer experience even better than before? However, to quantify, or even just to identify, the “experience” has never been easy.

To improve customer experience, a brand needs to be able to quantify what customer experience is. In the traditional way, a brand will measure it through conducting a survey which comprises of series of questions indicating the level of customer experience at each touchpoint. No matter how well the survey has been designed, it is impossible to reflect every customer experience throughout their whole journey. The survey selects only a few customers and each customer has been selected only in some experiences. One big misconception a bank has is about thinking that customer will satisfy with the service if only the service is fast. However, the speed is the minimum requirement. The quality of services is what customer needs to meet their expectation. The survey captures only a small part of customer experience which cannot be inferred for the whole brand’s perception. The traditional survey could not capture enough information to improve the customer experience for hyper-individualised era.

Would it be better if we could get some helps from new technologies?

The traditional customer survey has been conducted for 80 years with a little advancement in setting up questions. However, there are a lot of emerging technologies, i.e. artificial intelligence (AI), which helps the brand tracking customer experience more effectively and more efficiently without having to ask any traditional fatigue survey. One way is to use video to capture customers’ emotions which will reflect the true customers’ emotional states without verbally communicating. Cloverleaf, a US based retailed technology company, launched a shelf-based dynamic display which tracked and analysed customers’ faces for emotional expressions and demographics to adapt the displayed content which stimulates a customer to purchase the product. It has been proven double-digit sale uplift.

Another way that AI could enhance in tracking customer experience is to turn survey from interrogations to conversations. It allows the brand to capture customer feedback at every opportunity without irritating the customer because the questions will be more personalised and related to customers’ experiences. Pizza Hut Canada uses a special chatbot-like to prompt the more detail and related questions in real time to ask about customers’ experiences and gently reminds them to share their stories. This response is more nourish, more detailed insight, while making the feedback experience a little less mundane and a little more human-like.

Advanced Technology is not only elevating the capability of measuring customer experience, but it also helps bringing the customer experience into action in near real time. Facebook developed its own algorithm for targeted advertisements on its platform. The advertisements will not only individualise based on demographic and interests, but the algorithm also captures amount of time people spending on each ads and types of ads that would attract each group of customers. The algorithm then analyses and generates personalised ads in the near real time that highly influence customers to purchase any product more. This effective advertisement’s algorithm leads to 49 percent of revenue growth year-on-year in 2017 contributing more than 99 percent of total Facebook ‘s income.

There is no ultimate solution to perfect every customer experience. Technology alone cannot solve customer experience’s problem. It is an enabler for delivering any service beyond any customers’ satisfaction by facilitating the connection between customer and service. Staffs are still the crucial key to create and sustain great interactions with consumers. Excellent staffs together with advanced technologies enable a brand to consistently perform exceed customer’s expectation. Positive customer experience is highly correlated to the likelihood of repeat purchases or brand loyalty. If you can achieve it, the lifetime winner of this battle will clearly be you.

Views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of TMB Bank or its executives.

Contributed by Bussaba Amnueypornsakul and Wipada Chanthaweethip. They can be reached at tmbanalytics@tmbbank.com

“We expect more than five groups to propose their respective plans on January 14 with the winner to be announced in February 2019,” he said.

The contract will be signed in March for construction to start in May.

The project requires an investment of up to Bt30 billion in the development of infrastructure and service facilities,