The Thai economy is also predicted to recover in the fourth quarter of this year after a slump in the third quarter, according to experts at the two banks.

Thailand’s GDP is predicted to recover from a low 3.3-per-cent growth in the third quarter to 3.9 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to Yunyong Thaicharoen, first executive vice president and head of SCB’s Economic Intelligence Centre.

Yunyong was speaking at an SCB press conference in Chiang Mai last Friday.

He predicted that exports would grow by 7.5 per cent in 2018, lower than the Commerce Ministry’s 8-per-cent estimate. Yunyong further predicted a fall in export growth to 4.3 per cent in 2019. This is due to the uncertain trading conditions stemming from the ongoing US-China trade war.

“Meanwhile, GDP growth in 2019 will be strong at 4.2 per cent. This would be partly from the expected recovery of tourism numbers, which would most likely occur in the second quarter of next year,” he said.

“We expect a total of 38 million tourists to visit Thailand by the end of this year, and up to 40.2 million in 2019, marking a 5.8 per cent year-on-year increase,” he stated.

“Government policies aimed at boosting tourism such as offering free visa-on-arrival to tourists from targeted countries will certainly help support the recovery of tourism numbers in 2019,” he continued.

“However, the key factor which has led to a slump in tourism numbers in the third quarter of this year was the concern over Thailand’s tourist safety standards,” he said.

“Hence the Thai government will need to direct its efforts to improve safety measures and assure Chinese tourists that Thailand is a safe tourist destination,” he said.

Yunyong pointed to the Phuket boat accident in July, which damaged the trust of Chinese tourists and led to a fall in tourist numbers in the third quarter.

In the third quarter of this year, foreign tourist arrival growth was at 7.4 per cent year on year. Meanwhile, in the first six months of this year tourism grew by up to 12.2 per cent year on year, according to the Tourism and Sports Ministry.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) offered supporting figures: in August, 867,000 tourists visited the country, down 11.77 per cent month on month.

In September, only 648,000 Chinese tourists came, marking an even steeper 14.89 per cent fall month on month.

Another key growth driver for 2019 will be public and private investments, Yunyong claimed. He predicted total private investments to grow by 4 per cent year on year in 2019.

He expects foreign direct investment (FDI) to increase by single digits as the Thai government tries to attract FDI into the Eastern Economic Corridor.

Meanwhile, total public investment in 2018 is predicted at Bt747 billion with Bt600 billion going to general projects and Bt147 billion going to transportation mega-projects.

In 2019, total public investment is predicted at Bt813 billion, with Bt649 billion going to general projects and Bt164 billion going to transportation mega-projects, according to figures from the ministry of finance and ministry of transport.

“The Thai economy may enjoy 4-per-cent growth [next year], with the help of investment to compensate from the faltering momentum of external sectors such as exports and tourism,” Kasikorn Research Centre assistant managing director Nattaporn Triratanasirikul said at a separate seminar on Friday.

KBank’s export analysis suggests slower growth in 2019.

“The US-China trade war will be a key variable for Thai exports next year. Our exports are projected to grow at 4.5 per cent in 2019 versus 7.7 per cent in 2018,” Nattaporn said.

“The banks’ creditworthiness will stay broadly stable in 2019 because of the still-healthy economic fundamentals and good credit buffers,” said Eugene Tarzimanov, a Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer.

In particular, Moody’s says that the APAC banks’ capital, provisions and profit will provide sufficient loss-absorbing buffers, while funding and liquidity will remain stable.

“In addition, recent developments on bank resolutions in APAC cement our view that government support for the banks will stay strong, and that senior creditors will not be required to pay for bank rescues – although Hong Kong remains an exception,” adds Tarzimanov.

Moody’s conclusions are contained in its just-released report titled, “Banks – Asia Pacific: 2019 Outlook Remains Stable as Banks Maintain Sufficient Buffers Against Growing Headwinds”, which is authored by Tarzimanov.

But Moody’s report also notes that APAC banks will face more challenging economic and market conditions in 2019.

Moody’s says that GDP growth in APAC has peaked and will moderate, and credit expansion will continue to slow down, with the trade conflict between China and the US posing a risk for the banks.

Moody’s also explains that private-sector leverage remains high in many APAC economies, exposing the banks to the risk of asset quality impairment as interest rates continue to rise. Nevertheless, growth in private-sector credit has slowed, with some markets de-leveraging.

The banks continue to remain exposed to property-related risks, despite real estate prices neither falling nor posting slower growth in APAC. Moody’s says that loans for real estate investment purposes represent the greatest risk for banks in Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Malaysia.

Moreover, capital flows in and out of Asian financial markets have been volatile, and further tightening in US Dollar liquidity could have an adverse effect on corporate debt repayment capacity.

Overall, the banks will have sufficient buffers against growing risks.

Moody’s also says that technological advancements will reshape the business models of APAC banks in the coming years, with digitisation helping the banks scale down their branch networks and lower costs.

Also, banks in APAC will stay active issuers of green bonds, although growth in green financing has slowed in 2018.

The recall of this band is part of the NBTC’s measures to help ease the financial burden on digital TV broadcasters.

The subpanel will recall the band from the digital TV broadcasting licence holders before putting it in the auction for the provision of proposed 5G telecommunications services.

The proceeds from the auction will be passed to the NBTC’s broadcasting and telecom research and development fund for the public benefit (BTFP), which will spend part of the proceeds to compensate the broadcasters for their return of the 700MHz band to the watchdog.

Subpanel chairman Natee Sukonrat said yesterday that the subpanel has considered enabling the auction proceeds to be used to cover the broadcasters’ remaining unpaid licence upfront fees of around Bt12 billion.

The proceeds will also be used to cover the broadcasters “Must Carry” cost, which is their expense of transmitting programmes through a satellite network. This amount will cover such costs until the end of the remaining 10 years for which their licences are valid.

The subpanel also intends to use part of the proceeds to cover their broadcasting network rental cost until the end of their licence period.

The subpanel is expected to finalise the rules for the recall of the 700MHz and the compensation details early next year, when they would be put to the NBTC board for its consideration, Natee added.

The subpanel called the meeting with the broadcasters, broadcasting network providers and telecom operators on the issues for the first time yesterday.

The broadcasters proposed to the subpanel that the NBTC use the BTFP fund to compensate them after recalling the 700MHz.

The move to recall the 700MHz complies with the second edition of the NBTC law. It also supports the NBTC’s plan for next year to seek ways to help the ailing digital TV licence holders and promote the planned 5G service.

The watchdog will switch the broadcasters over to the 470MHz band instead.

Along with Thais, Taiwanese and Indonesians also reported being keen on the cash-free trend.

Those are some of the conclusions reached in a survey by Line Corporation released yesterday, exploring attitudes towards and trust in financial technology (fintech) through a survey of 5,000 smartphone users in seven markets. The survey looked at consumers in Line’s four major markets of Japan, Thailand, Taiwan and Indonesia, plus South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Together, these markets revealed a major opportunity for the wider adoption of Fintech if the challenges of consumers’ low awareness and access to products can be overcome.

Across the seven markets, 64 per cent of respondents agreed that financial technology makes planning and managing their finances easier. Trust in financial technology was generally found to be high, with 63 per cent of survey respondents saying they trust the products and services they are currently aware of and a further 30 per cent feeling ambivalent towards them. Trust also appears to increase with youth, with only 55 per cent of those aged 55 and over trusting fintech, compared with 69 per cent of those aged 18-34, indicating greater upside potential for fintech with younger age groups.

However, in all markets surveyed, respondents’ knowledge of the financial technology related services and products currently available to them was relatively low, with less than half considering themselves knowledgeable in this area (44 per cent), rising to 52 per cent among younger audiences (those in the 18-34 age bracket).

Of those products and services that respondents would be most willing to use a mobile or app-based service to access, savings accounts (65 per cent), money transfers (57 per cent), current accounts (48 per cent) and insurance (48 per cent) were the most popular options given. Life insurance (65 per cent), travel insurance (58 per cent) and home insurance (50 per cent) were selected the top types of insurance respondents wanted to access in this way.

While respondents in each market had different interests and concerns, Thailand, Taiwan and Indonesia all stood out as being particularly interested in a digital financial future. When asked about the prospect of their market becoming “cash-free”, all three answered well above the survey average of 37 per cent: In Thailand, 57 per cent of respondents said they were “excited” about going cash-free, followed by Indonesia at 56 per cent and Taiwan at 52 per cent. South Korea also answered positively, at 45 per cent.

Those markets also responded more positively to purchasing financial products through a mobile-based service. While overall 65 per cent of survey respondents would open a savings account over a mobile app, Thailand led with 83 per cent, then Indonesia at 77 per cent and Taiwan at 69 per cent (South Korea also did well, at 75 per cent).

In contrast, respondents in the UK, US and Japan were less eager to stray from traditional methods. Only a small percentage of respondents reported being excited about becoming “cash-free”, with Japan at 24 per cent, the US at 20 per cent and the UK last among the surveyed markets at 19 per cent.

Japan in particular remains behind most developed nations when it comes to cashless payments, but as the government tries to move the country away from its dependence on cash, this is an area with much potential for growth.

The UK, US and Japan were also behind the survey averages for being willing to use mobile to buy fintech services. Japan had the lowest percentage of respondents say they would be willing to open a savings account, at 49 per cent, then the US at 53 per cent and the UK at 57 per cent (survey average 65 per cent). For making investments over mobile, however, the UK was last at 28 per cent, followed by the US and Japan at 37 per cent, closer to the survey average of 45 per cent.

November marked the third-straight month of declines in the CCI.

The survey also showed that household debt in 2018 reached Bt316,623 per family, up 5.8 per cent from 2017 amid the pressures on the economy that have forced families to take on more debt.

According to the survey, 64.7 per cent of total household debt is held by banks and other financial institutions, with the rest held outside the banking system.