Thailand urged to take lead on trade

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Thailand urged to take lead on trade

Economy December 06, 2018 01:00

By PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT
THE NATION

THAILAND should capitalise on its position as chair of the next two Asean summits in 2019 by finishing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations in order to mitigate risks from the US-China trade war, say experts.

The RCEP, led by China, is the largest proposed multilateral free trade agreement in history, involving 16 countries including India and the 10 Asean members.

“Being a part of a mega-trade pact like RCEP will improve Thailand’s position geopolitically, and allow the country to benefit from free trade and mitigate the risks of the trade war hitting Thai exports such as computers, motor vehicles and chemicals,” said the director of the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)’s Economic Intelligence Services (EIS), Kirida Bhaopichitr.

Exports of computer parts and circuits to China fell by 18.4 per cent in October, according to Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce.

Kirida spoke during the “Understanding Industry 4.0: Challenge and Opportunity for True Digital Transformation with Global and Thailand Economic Outlook 2018-2019” held by Deloitte Thailand last week.

Thailand is unlikely to proceed in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), as the trade pact has less weight due to the absence of the US, she added.

Unlike the CPTPP, the RCEP is a more traditional type of trade deal, focusing mainly on reducing tariffs and putting less emphasis on issues such as intellectual property rights and protection.

By joining RCEP, Thailand would make itself part of a mega-trade bloc, giving it more leverage in terms of attracting foreign investment as well as boosting exports, she said.

Other experts agree.

“Thailand should capitalise on this opportunity as the chairman of the Asean summit in 2019 and maximise the potential gains from the trade war,” concurred Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, assistant managing director and head of private wealth management research at Phatra Securities Plc, in an interview on the sidelines of another event last week.

“Although the figures are yet to be shown, I expect a single- digit increase in private investment in the next three to five years as a result of the trade war,” he said.

“Joining RCEP would increase our bargaining power in trade. As the Asean host, Thailand will have a timely opportunity to push for progress in the RCEP negotiations,” he said.

However, he also noted that joining RCEP would bring with it some uncertainty, as the mega-trade deal is propelled by China. Joining it would risk damaging trade relations between Thailand and the US.

Matthew Circosta, an analyst for Moody’s Investors Service (Singapore), also agrees that joining RCEP could help Thailand.

“Joining a mega-trade pact will certainly allow Asean countries to cope with uncertain trade conditions in the upcoming years,” he said last Friday at Moody’s “Inside Asean – Spotlight on Thailand” seminar.

“The trade war will cause a shift in the global supply chain, and Thailand will be negatively affected by this,” he said.

Circosta suggested that new multilateral trade deals may be an opportunity for Thailand to find its place in the shifting global supply chain.

“Asean is an export reliant region that champions free trade. Therefore, not joining such multilateral trade deals like RCEP and the CPTPP will leave Thailand out of the supply chain,” he said.

Somkid underlines 3 areas of reform for Thailand to keep pace with neighbours

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  • Kalin
  • Somkid

Somkid underlines 3 areas of reform for Thailand to keep pace with neighbours

Economy December 05, 2018 01:00

By PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT
THE NATION

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Thailand will need to radically reform its economic structure if it wants to keep up with its fast-growing Asean neighbours, says Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

He says the three top priorities are creating value for agricultural goods, promoting digital transformation and promoting the growth of secondary cities.

“Thailand has a dire need to acquire the ability to create more value for our agricultural goods,” Somkid told the “Thailand Economic Outlook 2019” dinner event organised on Monday by Krungthep Turakij, a sister newspaper of the The Nation.

He said the low prices of agricultural goods were a chronic problem for the Thai economy. With 20 to 30 per cent of the total population working in the agricultural sector, the continuing low prices of agricultural goods is preventing people’s incomes from going up. This has in turn led to weak domestic demand in the country, limiting Thailand’s overall economic growth and transforming it into an export-reliant nation, he said.

“Instead of selling fine agricultural goods at low prices to foreigners to turn them into valuable products and sell them internationally at higher prices, Thailand should develop its own capabilities to create added value for our own goods and elevate the income of those within the agricultural industry,” Somkid suggested.

The most promising method to add value to Thai agricultural products would be through processed fruits, he said.

The second critical structural reform would be transitioning from a traditional economy to a digitally driven one.

“Thailand needs to promote the growth of digital industries. To achieve growth rate like China and Vietnam, we will need to turn ourselves into a startup nation and promote the use of digital platforms,” Somkid said.

The digital age has lowered the barriers for entry into the market and given the small businessperson the chance to make it big within the market, he explained.

“The key advantage of having a digital economy is the low capital requirements of startups. Individuals with ideas and ambitions can now start their own businesses through a digital platform. This will lead to the rapid growth of startups within Thailand, creating innovative growth and putting Thailand at the forefront of the global market,” Somkid said.

The third requisite economic transformation is to promote the growth of secondary cities through improved transport infrastructure and e-commerce.

“The Thai government has been investing heavily in high-speed railways to link cities like Bangkok, Hua Hin and Chiang Mai with secondary cities like Nan and Surat Thani,” he said. “This will improve tourism in these areas, leading to urbanisation, a key driver for economic growth.”

The government plans to invest as much as Bt2 trillion in the country’s transportation infrastructure in the year 2019, he added.

Another method to promote secondary cities is through e-commerce, which would allow local goods in secondary cities to be sold nationwide and internationally. This would increase the business potential of these areas and propel the Thai economy, according to Somkid.

Somkid predicted GDP growth of at least 3.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, and said he was certain the GDP growth for 2018 would be at least 4 per cent, perhaps higher. He cited the lull in the US-China trade war after the G20 summit as the key reason for his optimism, expecting Thai exports to continue to grow and push up the GDP figures.

Meanwhile, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has predicted GDP growth of 4 to 4.3 per cent in 2019, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and Board of Trade of Thailand Kalin Sarasin said at press conference after the meeting yesterday.

He added that factors propelling the 4-per-cent growth would involve increased domestic spending and public investment as well as recovering tourism numbers.

The committee maintains an 8 per cent export growth target for 2018, citing the new 90-day halt to the US-China trade war as the key reason. However, exports are expected to contract between 5 and 7 per cent year on year in 2019, with risk factors being the resumption of the US-China trade war and uncertainties surrounding UK’s Brexit.

“Next year, Thailand will need to rely more on domestic demand to drive growth,” said Kalin. “We believe domestic spending and total investment for next year to be promising, and continue to predict a 4 to 4.3 per cent GDP growth in 2019.”

This is in light of the announcement of various government policies aimed specifically at boosting domestic spending.

The JSCCIB also believes government spending and investment in various projects, such as infrastructure and the development of the EEC region, will boost the Thai economy in 2019, according to Kalin.

Another factor boosting the 2019 economy will be the upcoming election.

“We believe the election period will boost domestic consumption, especially in the first quarter of 2019,” he said.

“Furthermore, tourism is seeing signs of recovery after a slide in the third quarter,” Kalin said.

Last month, the JSCCIB reported that in August, 867,000 Chinese tourists visited the Kingdom, down 11.77 per cent month on month. In September, only 648,000 visited, another 14.89 per cent fall month on month.

The JSCCIB also has plans to boost investment through capitalising on Thailand’s position as next year’s chair of the Asean summits.

“We aim to cooperate with the Asean Business Advisory Council (Asean-BAC) to organise investment events in 2019,” he said.

Up to 15 events have been planned by Asean-BAC for 2019, with the flagship events “Asean Business Awards” and “Asean Business and Investment Summit” to be held towards the end of next year, Kalin added.

Sustainability aids bottom line: survey

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Sustainability aids bottom line: survey

Economy December 05, 2018 01:00

By The Nation

A new HSBC survey of more than 8,500 companies in 34 markets,  ‘Navigator: Now, next and how for business’, has found a trend of businesses making sustainability changes in their supply chains to improve their bottom lines.

Almost a third (31 per cent) of companies globally plan to make sustainฌ

ability-related changes to their supply chains over the next three years. Of those making ethical or environmentally sustainable changes to their supply chains, cost efficiencies (84 per cent) and improved revenues and financial performance (also 84 per cent) were the main motivations.

This trend comes as companies face increasing pressure from customers to be more ethical and transparent about their sourcing. With around 80 per cent of a company’s environmental impact found in its supply chain, the “green”

credentials of strategic suppliers and partners are critical factors in a firm’s reputation and performance, said Bryan Pascoe, global head of client coverage, HSBC Global Commercial Banking.

Cabinet delays gas-field decision

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Cabinet delays gas-field decision

Economy December 05, 2018 01:00

By The Nation

Cabinet yesterday did not consider the final bids for two gas fields – Erawan and Bongkot – after the Energy Minister proposed it as an urgent agenda item.

“The cabinet will consider the matter on the normal agenda for the cabinet meeting on December 18, because they need to take the time to consider this issue,” Sompop Pattanariyankool, director of Policy and Strategy Co-ordination Office said after the cabinet meeting yesterday.

He added that the Energy Ministry cannot to disclose the name of the winner until after the Cabinet approval.

Trade war pause offers hope: shippers

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Trade war pause offers hope: shippers

Economy December 05, 2018 01:00

By The Nation

Thai National Shippers’ Council has continued to maintain export growth of 8 per cent this year compared to last year as the US-China trade war shows signs of relaxing, the council’s chairperson Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong said yesterday.

The figures are based on the Thai baht at Bt33 per USD, she said.

She added that the council also estimates export growth of 5 per cent in 2019  compared with this year, thanks to the trade war between China and USA being on hold for 90 days.

“If they both can finalise the negotiations and end the trade war, that will be better for the country’s export in the next year,” she said.

Thumbs up for shopping incentive

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Asia Books at CentralWorld is among the shops expecting to benefit from the tax incentive campaign.
Asia Books at CentralWorld is among the shops expecting to benefit from the tax incentive campaign.

Thumbs up for shopping incentive

Economy December 05, 2018 01:00

By Somluck Srimalee,
Phuwit Limviphuwat
The Nation

The private sector has voiced confidence in the tax incentives offered by the government for shopping from December 15 until January 16, 2019, as it will push up domestic spending and boost the country’s gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of this year by 0.1 to 0.2 per cent.

 

Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and Board of Trade of Thailand Kalin Sarasin said the tax refund would contribute positively to the economy.

Michelin (Thailand) Co Ltd country director Segsarn Trai-Ukos said this was the best policy to support the use of local rubber to manufacture tyres.

“This will expand the demand for truck and bus tyres and in the process increase the utilisation of local natural rubber,” he said.

Michelin (Thailand) Co Ltd uses 100 per cent local natural rubber, he added.

Asia Books Co Ltd’ managing director Gesarin Anek said the measure was good for the book market and could help the industry achieve significant growth.

Following the government announcement of the measure, Asia Books launched its latest campaign, offering price discounts of up to 20 per cent to customers during the period of the incentive, she said.

Salinla Seehaphan, corporate affairs director, Tesco Lotus, said the retailer welcomes the government’s year-end tax rebate scheme as historically these campaigns have helped to uplift the shopping mood and stimulate spending. “We will be participating this year as we have products eligible for rebate such as books and OTOP products.”

Yesterday, the Cabinet gave the nod to the New Year gift for Thai people. The tax deduction measure covers three specific types of products as a means to promote agriculture, communities and human capital

Pinsai Suraswadi, spokesman for the Revenue Department, said the department has proposed the tax measure to promote agriculture, communities and human capital through consumption of necessary products that have been promoted by the government.

As per the ministerial regulation, ordinary people will be able to spend up to Bt15,000 per person on specific types of products as deductibles from their personal income tax. The spending must be done between December 15 and January 16, 2019.

Taxpayers will be able to receive tax deduction based on spending of not more than Bt15,000 combined for two tax years. Out of the three types of products, the first range from auto tyres to motorcycle tyres and bicycle tyres and all must have documents from the Rubber Authority of Thailand.

The second type involves OTOP products registered with the Community Development Department and the third is books and e-books bought from companies or registered partnerships, but excluding magazines and newspapers.

All purchased products must be backed by invoice.

Meanwhile, yesterday the Cabinet also approved a budget of Bt26 billion to support rubber, palm and tobacco as their prices have been sliding.

Nattaporn Jatusripitak, an adviser at the Prime Minister’s Office, said after the Cabinet meeting yesterday that the Cabinet had approved Bt17.5 billion to support rubber farmers for the year 2018-2019 by paying Bt1,800 per rai per farmer but not over 15 rai per farmer starting from December 2018 until September 2019.

This will cover rubber 999,065 rubber farmers, and 304,266 rubber tappers with combined lands of 944,847 rai.

Another Bt3.45 billion will be spent to support palm farmers at Bt1,500 per rai per farmer, but not more than 15 rai per farmer.

The balance of Bt159.59 million will be allocated for tobacco plants, covering 13,557 farmers, he said.

Grow your ‘learning mindset’ to be transformational

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Grow your ‘learning mindset’ to be transformational

Economy December 04, 2018 01:00

By SPECIAL TO THE NATION

IT IS because of learning that the light bulb was invented. It is also learning that allowed the discovery of electricity to power that light bulb. All the advancements in our world that make our lives better exist because of learning.

It is not an exaggeration to say that we need to keep learning in order to grow, and learning itself doesn’t benefit only ourselves but also our society and the world as a whole.

As human beings, in order to continue developing ourselves and our world, we need to keep learning. This learning can come from our own daily experiences or more deliberately through reading, attending classes or asking questions of others.

Today’s reality is that in an increasingly fast-changing world, the only way to stay relevant is to keep learning. But learning alone cannot create change, and so we must aim towards transformative learning.

According to a study by LinkedIn, “transformative learning is the expansion of consciousness through the transformation of worldview and capacities of the self. It’s an act of changing how we see and do things.”

Transformative learning is beneficial in many ways. As tedious and repetitive tasks get automated, this opens up a new set of jobs for which learning new skills and being able to apply them at work are crucial to the organisation’s growth.

Other benefits include an increase in engagement among people in the organisation, as well as an enhancement of creativity and an inevitable push towards innovation. But learning isn’t always easy and it can sometimes be something on which we tend to procrastinate.

Nonetheless, I know that some people perceive learning as a boring chore. This is why we need to develop a learning mindset. It is a mindset it which we instil lifelong learning and the curiosity about our world today in order to transform ourselves along with our organisations, communities and even the world.

Here are a few ways to nurture and strengthen a learning mindset so you can transform yourself and your organisation towards change.

First, understand that the learning of each individual is different. In order to nurture that learning mindset, understand what is most effective for yourself and your organisation. This will, of course, be difficult especially in large organisations with hundreds or thousands of employees, maybe even spread across the world.

For this, consider blended learning in your organisation. There are so many ways to approach this, depending on the needs of you and your organisation. However, blended learning gives you and your people options for how you want to develop certain skills.

Second, keep in mind that failure means you’re actually learning and using that learning in application. Transformation doesn’t happen when you simply just learn things and keep it to yourself. Real change – whether internal or external – happens only when you apply to your work what you’ve already known and the new things you’ve learnt.

As Morihei Ueshiba, Japanese martial artist and founder of the Japanese martial art of aikido, said: “Failure is the key to success; each mistake teaches us something.”

Third, keep in mind that it is with learning that you can master anything. But in addition to this, understand that this comes with consistency and |practice.

Fourth, seek out feedback. You’ll never know what you’re missing, or doing well at, if you don’t seek feedback. Simply assuming cannot help you transform yourself and it won’t help you progress in your learning.

Sometimes, you may not get the feedback that you’d like to hear, but it doesn’t mean you haven’t learnt anything. It means that you tried but something went wrong somewhere. This is something you’ll never know if you keep to yourself. Feedback also allows you to understand what you’re doing right so that you continue practising and eventually master the skill or subject.

When it comes to transformative learning, the key words are learning and application – you learn new things and you apply them at work. Our world is moving at a rapid pace, and in order to move forward we need to integrate transformative learning into our organisations starting with the right learning mindset. That could help keep you on top of the game at every single opportunity or challenge you may face.

ARINYA TALERNGSRI is chief capability officer and managing director at SEAC (formerly APMGroup), Southeast Asia’s leading executive, leadership and innovation capability development |centre. She can be reached by email at arinya_t@seasiacenter.com or https://www.linkedin.com/in/arinya-talerngsri-53b81aa

Inflation target set at 1.2 per cent next year

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Inflation target set at 1.2 per cent next year

Economy December 04, 2018 01:00

By PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT
THE NATION

THE COMMERCE Ministry has set the nation’s target inflation for 2019 at 1.2 per cent, the same as for 2018. The ministry also reported that inflation in November was 0.94 per cent higher than the same period last year.

“The Consumer Price Index [CPI] for November has increased by 0.94 per cent year on year, marking the 17th month of consecutive increase in consumer prices,” said the director-general of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Pimchanok Vonkorpon, yesterday during a press conference.

“These figures indicate that consumer spending remains at a satisfactory level,” she stated, “particularly, the price of durable goods, which increased from 24.1 per cent to 24.3 per cent, growing month on month in November,” according to Pimchanok. “If the 1.2-per-cent target is reached, it will mark the highest inflation level for Thailand in the past four years,” she said.

However, she noted that the CPI figures in November were still considered relatively low, and it was the third consecutive month to see a decline in the CPI growth rate. Month on month, the CPI figures decreased by 0.22 per cent.

“The key reason for the decrease in CPI growth is the recent fall in oil prices,” Pimchanok said.

Meanwhile, the ministry has set the inflation target for the first quarter of 2019 at 1.2 per cent.

“We expect the CPI growth rate to stabilise in 2019, leading us to predict that the first quarter of 2019 will also see a 1.2 per cent increase in consumer prices. This is if the prices of oil and agricultural goods remain stable,” Pimchanok explained. Regionally, Bangkok and its surrounding provinces had the highest CPI figures in November, climbing up to a 1.14 per cent increase year on year. Next was the Central region at 0.99 per cent. The Northwest and South experienced a consumer price increase of 0.92 and 0.88 per cent respectively. The North experienced no price increase.

Telecoms regulator to emphasise incentives in 2019 as it prepares for 5G

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Telecoms regulator to emphasise incentives in 2019 as it prepares for 5G

Economy December 04, 2018 01:00

By SIRIVISH TOOMGUM
THE NATION

THE NATIONAL Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) yesterday announced its next year’s plans, which focus on extending a lifeline to the ailing digital TV licence holders and encouraging telecom operators to bid for new spectra.

The watchdog will kick off the new year by holding an auction of the 700MHz band, totalling 2x45MHz of bandwidth.

Part of the proceeds will be used to continue the NBTC’s subsidy of the digital TV broadcasters’ cost of transmitting their programmes through satellite networks.

The NBTC wants to extend this subsidiary period to 2022 after the current subsidy period ends next year.

The NBTC will also use its own funds to continue to subsidise half of the broadcasting network rental fees of digital TV licence holders to 2022 from the current 2020 ending.

All these measures will help ease the financial difficulties of broadcasters, said Takorn Tantasith, the NBTC secretary-general. Takorn said this 700MHz band could be divided into three licences of 10MHz, 15MHz and 20MHz.

Currently, the digital TV licence holders use the 700MHz bandwidth to air their programmes. The watchdog will switch them to 470MHz instead. The broadcasters and related parties will be compensated for the impact of the switch.

The watchdog has planned to auction the new spectra on a multiple-band basis. Therefore, it might put the 700MHz to auction alone, or auction the band together with other bands.

The 700 MHz band could be auctioned along with 26GHz, and the 1800 band with 28GHz, Takorn added.

As for the telecom industry, the NBTC will revise the terms of payment for 1800MHz and 900MHz, which were recently auctioned, to help ease the burden on the operators.

It will also revise the terms and conditions and prices of the spectrum bands for which it plans to call bids next year.

The moves are intended to create inducements for telecom operators to take part in the new auctions. This will help them get the 5G service off the ground in 2020 as targeted by the NBTC, said Takorn.

The NBTC has planned to divide the 5G licences between nationwide licences and special location licences.

The watchdog will this month set up a working panel to reclaim the 2600MHz spectra from Thai state-owned public broadcaster MCOT before the spectrum expiration date. The panel will finish details of the plan within the month before sending it on to MCOT.

Tap water business booming in Laos

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Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong, left, Pisit Serewiwattana, president of Exim Bank, middle, and Pira Intaratood, managing director of AIM, right, meet on Saturday at Asia Nampapa Luangprabang Co, a tap-water plant in Luang Prabang.
Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong, left, Pisit Serewiwattana, president of Exim Bank, middle, and Pira Intaratood, managing director of AIM, right, meet on Saturday at Asia Nampapa Luangprabang Co, a tap-water plant in Luang Prabang.

Tap water business booming in Laos

Economy December 04, 2018 01:00

By WICHIT CHAITRONG
THE NATION

THE TAP-WATER business in Laos’ top tourist destination Luang Prabang has enormous potential for growth due to the rapid expansion of tourism, a high-speed rail project in the works and high demand for water utilities across the country, according to Exim Bank and Thai investors in Laos.

Tap water supplies have gone up rapidly in recent years in lock-step with growing demand of 10-15 per cent yearly in Luang Prabang. This compares with 3 per cent annual growth in large Thai cities, says Pira Intaratood, managing director of Asia Infrastructure Management (Thailand) Ltd. AIM has won concession from the local government to supply tap water to the city.

AIM has joined with Water Solution Co to set up Asia Nampapa Luangprabang Co (ALP) to operate a water facility, and has sold tap water to the Laos authority since December 2013. It has a 30-year concession contract from the local government.

Thoresen Thai Agencies Pcl (TTA) acquired 80.5 per cent of the AIM shares last year as it injected fresh funding to expand investment in Laos. TTA’s share price was quoted at Bt6.05 yesterday morning, down by 0.82 per cent. Luang Prabang is the most popular tourist destination in Laos and the ancient city, a Unesco World Heritage Site, has expanded rapidly due to the visitor boom. The construction of a high-speed rail linking southern China to Vientiane has also led to fast-growing residential units, hotels and related activities.

The ALP water plant now supplies about 15,000 cubic metres daily and could expand its water production capacity to 50,000 cubic metres per day, said Pira. He expected the company would soon expand its production to meet rising demand. Once the high-speed rail service commences in the next two years, the station will need more water supply, he said. The company also plans to invest in a new facility around Luang Prabang and in a major city such as Champasak, a province in southern Laos, he added.

He said it was difficult to get a long-term contract from Laos authorities. Once his company has proved that its business would benefit consumers, new projects would be much easier to start, he said. “Our long-term contract for supplying tap water to commercial areas and residents has become a new model for the local governments in Laos,” said Pira.

“Initially, financing is an obstacle for small-scale Thai investors. When I started the project, every bank in Thailand and Laos rejected our proposal, only Export-Import Bank of Thailand agreed to lend then,” he said.

Exim Bank loaned about Bt70 million for the project initially. The investment in the whole project is about Bt250 million. Return on investment in the clean water supply project is about 15-18 per cent, compared with 25-30 per cent returns in electricity projects in Laos. “The investment return is quite high even though it is not as high as the electricity supply project,” said Pira.

Pisit Serewiwattana, the president of Exim Bank, said the bank would continue to support the company’s future projects. The company has met its loan repayment commitments over the past five years, he said.

Exim Bank opened its representative office in Vientiane last week and plans to open more in Phnom Penh early next year. Exim Bank has long been engaging in lending to support Thailand’s investments in Laos and exports to Laos. “The bank has so far approved financial facilities for investment projects in Laos worth more than Bt30 billion in total,” said Pisit.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong said the ministry would allow its Lao counterparts to raise funds in Thailand by issuing baht-dominated bonds due to large liquidity in the Thai market and promising investment opportunities in Laos. Eight baht-denominated bonds worth Bt45.7 billion in total have been issued by the Laos government between 2013 and 2018.