Of the total, 11.4 million will be existing state welfare cardholders with the rest likely to be newly-registered state welfare cardholders under Thai Niyom Yungyuen project.

VAT refund will be given in welfare cards at Bt500 per month per person. State welfare cardholders are not required to keep tax invoice of their spending as the MOF will be able to see their monthly spending on their cards.

“For example, when products worth Bt800 were bought in November, the VAT of 7 per cent or Bt56 will be refunded into the card in December. Only purchases of products such as soap, toothpaste, mobile phone will be eligible for refund and the items must be bought at VAT-registered shops,” the source said.

Blue-flag shops accept state welfare cards for payment.

The ministry has discussed with department stores and discount stores on the establishment of a point of sale system, which will be linked to electronic data capture (EDC), to separate the VAT from product prices.

State welfare cardholders are able to fill cash in their cards and shop at participating shops, then wait for the VAT return next month.

“It’s very easy as the Ministry of Finance wants high spending through the cards to promote a cashless society,” the source said.

Tivaporn Phasuk, a director of the Office of Public Sector Receipt and Disbursement Administration at Comptroller General’s Department (CGD), said that from September 3, the department has started filling into the accounts or e-Wallet of state welfare cardholders who have received occupational training. The cardholders are able to withdraw cash through the cards and buy products at participating stores.

Buying products at blue-flag shops can be done from September 15 after complete linkage between the electronics card system and the shops’ EDC.

Khin Maung Lwin, assistant secretary and spokesperson of the Minisitry of Commerce, told The Nation yesterday that the ministry is currently training some officials to be sent to foreign countries which have strong potential for trade with Myanmar.

“We hope to replace the existing commercial attaches with new ones by December this year, and have planned to appoint commercial attaches for four new destinations including Africa,” he said.

The official lauded the existing commercial attaches’ performance but said they must be replaced as their term lasts only three years, the same tenure as that of other attaches working for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Currently, Myanmar has appointed commercial attaches in nine countries including the United States, Belgium, Japan, China, Singapore, India, Hong Kong and Thailand.

In China, Myanmar currently has trade representatives in Beijing and Nanning and is considering appointing a commercial attache in Kunming. In fiscal year 2017-18 which ended in March 31, Myanmar’s total trade volume reached over US$33.5 billion (Bt1.1 trillion), more than one-third of which ($11.7 billion) accounted for its trade with China.

“Obviously, the purpose of sending them abroad is to boost bilateral trade with the countries where they are based. To choose a new destination, we mainly look at the bilateral trade volume, potential, trading opportunities and outlook for the future. We are thinking of sending commercial attach้s to more countries in the near future so that we can expand our trading network which will result in tangible benefits for both exporters and importers,” he said.

He said the commercial attaches would play a vital role in promoting trade with foreign countries where Myanmar has an embassy. They will get foreign traders connected with Myanmar businesses to be involved in commercial activities and trading, and will also serve as a focal contact point for trade fairs in those countries. On Monday, the ministry started a course on capacity building for its officials in capital Nay Pyi Taw, aimed at training potential staff to serve as trade representatives in other countries. A total of 28 personnel from the ministry are currently attending the course.

The ministry is planning to send trade representatives to Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East in the near future. It will also establish an international trade centre in Yangon to promote products made in Myanmar as well as set up EU and South Korea trade desks. Additionally, a Central Trade Promotion Department and a consumer information and complaint centre have been established in the capitals of Myanmar’s states and regions, he said.

In fiscal year 2015-16, the national trade deficit was $5.44 billion, but in FY2017-18, it was reduced to $3.84 billion, driven by the rise in exports of textiles, natural gases, rice and maize. Last year, Myanmar’s imports generated $14.83 billion, a rise of $3.80 billion from FY2015-16, according to the Commerce Ministry.

In a bid to triple exports by FY2020-21, the ministry has shifted its focus from trade control to facilitation. As of May 2018, the ministry has removed licence requirements for 3,345 export items and 4,818 import items to promote trade.

It has allowed Myanmar businesses to enter joint ventures with foreign companies for agricultural machinery, and approved domestic trade for fertiliser, crop seeds, pesticides, medical apparatus, as well as construction equipment. It has also waived restrictions on the exports of cattle, trade of gold, gold artefacts and jewellery.

However, risks remain with fragile economies of emerging-market countries spanning from Turkey to Venezuela which could rip through the Thai currency with higher volatility, said Predee Daochai, JSCCIB chairman in its September meeting.

In the second quarter of this year, the Thai economy grew higher than expected, bolstered by rises in export, tourism, private consumption and agricultural production, he said. Combined with first-quarter expansion, Thai growth was about 4.8 per cent in the first half of this year.

Thanavath Phonvichai, director of University of Thai Chamber of Commerce’s Centre for Business and Economic Forecasting, said that August’s Thai consumer confidence hit a record high in 64 months since May 2013, indicating that consumers will likely regain confidence after a temporary setback in the past three months, thanks to rises in exports, tourism and farm income on the back of higher prices of several crops.

Thai Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) edged higher to 83.2 last month (August) from 82.2 in July.

The index reflects views on the overall economy, job prospect and income expectations.

“The Thai economy has started to take a more distributed recovery in the latter half of this year. Consumer confidence on income expectations has turned to the 100-level for a second straight month and hit a record high in 64 months, while confidence about political situation has reached 100 for the first time, which has encouraged consumers tospemd more ,” Thanavath said. The centre is scheduled to revise the Thai economic figures on September 13.

Thanavath expressed confidence that Thai consumer confidence will stay on the uptrend, while expecting the Thai economy to grow at a normal level in the second quarter of next year (2019).

Escalating trade war between the US and China is expected to have no serious impact on Thailand this year but needs a close watch next yera, he said. The currency crisis and political problems in Latin American countries should be followed up closely.

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So far, the US has imposed tariffs on US$50 billion of Chinese goods and China has retaliated in kind. This week, the US will implement a proposed $200 billion in additional tariffs on Chinese goods and China has said that it is prepared to retaliate with its own tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods.

Kitichan, Sirisukarcha, head of retail research of CGS-CIMB Securities (Thailand) said that the Thai stock market moved down sideways on concerns over the escalating trade dispute between the US and China as the US is expected to impose a new round of tariffs after its September-5 public hearing.

Markets expect the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index to drop below 1,700 points if the US imposes full tariffs of 25 per cent and to stay at 1,700 points if it imposes a 10 per cent tariffs, he said.

Indonesia’s rupiah has lost 10 per cent since the beginning of this year, caught up in an emerging market sell-off, which accelerated last week after a plunge in Argentina’s peso followed Turkey’s lira fluctuations.

Investors were quick in selling stocks in Thailand and the Philippines, given Indonesia is part of TIP (Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines).

The SET Index yesterday slid 6.80 points to 1,714.41 points with daily trading turnover of Bt44.45 billion.

Late this month, emerging-market currencies are also expected to weaken on expectations of capital flight to seek higher yields after the Federal Reserve’s likely hike of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 25-26 meeting.

“If you hold stocks you should take profit and wait for September 5. The first support is 1,713 points, next is 1,707 points,” Kitichan said.

He added that with the promulgation of Export-Import Bank of Thailand Act (No. 3), BE 2561 (2018) in July 2018, the scope of EXIM Thailand’s trade and investment insurance services has been expanded to better serve Thai businesses. The new service features will include: 1. investment insurance provided not only to EXIM Thailand’s loan customers but also to commercial banks’ clients as well as commercial banks lending to Thai investment projects abroad; 2. export credit insurance to suppliers of products or services to Thai exporters; and 3. insurance protection for financial institutions against unfair calling of bonds issued to Thai business operators overseas.

The enlarged scope of trade and investment insurance service is aimed to support Thai entrepreneurs in their contract bidding and trade and investment expansion beyond Thailand. Service provision will be made under collaboration with financial institutions and insurance agencies both at home and overseas to promote mutual benefits as well as furthering economic and social development at both regional and global levels, he said.

Besides expanding the scope of service and cooperation, EXIM Thailand will collaborate with its business partners in offering trade and investment data to Thai entrepreneurs in their penetration of new frontier markets and risk hedging tools for their trade and investment endeavors overseas.

Africa is the world’s second largest region in terms of area and population following Asia, comprising 54 countries with abundant labour and natural resources, such as ores, oil and natural gas, receiving generalised system of preferences for their exports to major markets, having prime location in the maritime routes between the Indian and Atlantic oceans, and consumers with purchasing power constituting 40 per cent of the total population.

Thai-African trade during January-July 2018 increased by 23 per cent year-on-year. Major export goods from Thailand to Africa include rice, vehicles and parts, representing 35 per cent and 16 per cent of Thailand’s total exports respectively, he said.

However, according to reports by a number of risk rating agencies, several African countries still have high risk ratings, hence prompting concerns among Thai entrepreneurs and discouraging them to make their presence in this region despite their high potential and growing interest by investors around the world as a new investment destination.

Therefore, EXIM Thailand is supporting more trade and investment by Thai entrepreneurs to increase Thai-African trade proportion from only 3 per cent of total Thai export value at present. Thai direct investment in Africa is also relatively small, mostly in Egypt and Mauritius, representing roughly 4 per cent of total Thai direct investment overseas.

EXIM Thailand is ready to provide advisory services on trade risk hedging, such as selection of comprehensive payment term, analysis of trade partner data, and offering of export credit and investment insurance with such benefit package as a 50 per cent reduction of the calculated export credit insurance premium for exporters and analysis of buyer credit worthiness free of charge for the first two buyers and 50 per cent discount for the 3rd-5th buyers, he said.

Indeed, a sense of uncertainty about a purchase makes people more likely to rely on how they feel about a product than their rational evaluation of it, our research shows.

Take for instance how music listeners choose to pay for music streaming services, despite the prevalence and ease of illegal file sharing. In its heydays, file-sharing websites like Limewire saw 50 million users illegally downloading music for free every month. Music piracy carries an uncertain risk, where bad actors may deliberately infect a user’s computer with malicious software through tainted MP3 audio files. Now, options like Spotify, Apple Music, JOOX, KKBox, and others present a safer alternative, despite piracy’s convenience and the lack of a price tag. Premium music subscription services guarantee a certain level of song quality unlike pirated MP3 files that could have been recorded off a radio, and users would prefer putting up with advertisements between listening binges to avoid the uncertainty that pirated music brings.

My studies with Michel Tuan Pham, professor of business in marketing at Columbia Business School, show that people are more attracted to a product’s aesthetic appeal if they have been primed to feel uncertain.

The drive of uncertainty

Uncertainty is characterised by psychological discomfort, and a motivation to resolve it. People also tend to experience uncertainty as a threat to their sense of self. As such, they tend to depend more on information that closely mirror their personal values and judgments.

We also studied consumers’ purchasing behaviour regarding different products such as an apartment, a car and a laptop. In these studies participants were asked to choose between products that were either functionally superior or more aesthetically pleasing, but otherwise similar. For instance, car A may have better fuel economy but lack visual appeal, while car B may look better but consume more fuel. We found that uncertainty shifts people’s preferences towards products that are more visually appealing. These investigations are important because they explore how deep-rooted this reliance on emotional subjectivity is, when participants have been manipulated to feel uneasy and confused.

Are the effects of priming people to feel uncertain limited only to the aesthetic aspect of a product, or are they powerful enough to make people disregard the intrinsic value of products? What we have found is that people who are made to feel uncertain will rely more on their emotional judgment, even disregarding products that are functionally superior.

Uncertainty sells

Our findings show that a sense of uncertainty significantly affects how consumers make their purchasing decision, and that has important implications for marketeers and even the government. It is not enough to sell a product or policy based on its superior functionality because the emotional psyche comes into play. Indeed, increased uncertainty can push people to make decisions based on emotions rather than rational consideration, despite the importance of the matter.

With that in mind, marketeers would do well to appeal to the hearts of consumers besides promoting the superior aspects of their products. For marketeers who sell products in which the aesthetic value is higher than the intrinsic value, they might pursue a marketing advantage of making consumers feel uncertain about the choices available. One such product could be a phone plan that allows for unlimited data. Users would make the switch despite the firm having little or no information about its network quality.

Marketeers could prime consumers to feel uncertain by asking questions rather than making statements: “Would you like whiter teeth?” rather than “Everyone loves a beautiful smile.” Or they could spur anxiety about the future with questions such as “What’s going to happen when you retire?” Marketing strategies may include images of wars or natural disasters to promote the sense of uncertainty.

In a separate study, we examined how uncertainty about positive events affect consumers’ behaviour. We found that it has the same influence as uncertainty about negative situations. Indeed, marketeers could make use of so-called positive uncertainty, such as the sex of a foetus or the financial value of a prize.

What is perhaps alarming and interesting is that consumers may let their emotions dictate their decisions even when the decisions are important and difficult to reverse – such as buying an apartment.

This suggests that the effect of uncertainty may influence significant matters such as how parents choose schools for their children, or deciding on which telecommunications provider to subscribe to.

To be sure, the studies indicate that chaos and uncertainty could be useful for selling products that appeal to consumers’ emotions rather than their reason.

Contributed by Ali Faraji-Rad, Assistant Professor, Marketing and International Business, Nanyang Business School, NTU. The research project mentioned in this article is co-authored with Michel Tuan Pham, the Kravis Professor of Business in Marketing, Columbia Business School, Columbia University.

Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said yesterday that manufacturers, importer and vendors of electronic goods had raised concerns over the new law.

The Cabinet had approved a draft law requiring that funding be allocated to disposal, Supant said, but the Council of State, a government legal advisory body, eliminated the clause.

He said the State Council felt such a fund would unnecessarily add to the government’s financial burden, already swelling due to rapid growth in spending and slow growth in tax revenues.

The State Council wants the private sector to take full responsibility for recycling phones, computers, air conditioners, TV sets and refrigerators.

The manufacturers and vendors say that, without the support fund, waste management would be disorganised and their production costs would be higher.

The draft law is currently awaiting debate before the National Legislative Assembly.

Supant said other countries have funds to manage electronic waste and recycling the products was part of Thailand’s growing “circular economy”, which the government should be encouraging.

Private companies have suggested that the draft law let them to set up their own waste-management funds, he said.

Some Thailand-based manufacturers adhere to international standards by producing items entirely out of recyclable components, Supant noted. But they too are concerned about the draft law because it threatens violators with jail terms and fines topping Bt100,000.

He said companies supported the original draft because they share concerns about the environment, but they oppose the revised law.

They are also willing to work with local governments to ensure environmental integrity, he said.

Since electronic goods are Thailand’s largest export, they government should heed the industry’s concerns, he said. The FTI is forwarding their complaints to the Legislative Assembly.

The government is also planning a master law to regulate all kinds of waste treatment.

With many communities complaining about pollution, it recently accelerated a crackdown on factories that illegally recycle imported waste.

In other developments, Predee Daochai, chairman of the Thai Bankers Association, said human error, not system error, caused the recent online banking crash.

He said it was a rare incident and mobile banking is safe. He said further details would be made public tomorrow.