The baht opened at 34.07 to the US dollar on Tuesday, weakening further after breaching the key 34/dollar level to close at 34.04 on Monday.
The currency is expected to move between 33.95 and 34.15 on Tuesday, Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool said.
Poon said the risk-averse market and Covid-19 situation in China could add more downward pressure on the baht.
He projected a key resistance level at 34.15 to 34.20 per dollar. If the baht weakens past 34.20, importers might scramble to buy dollars which would trigger significant further weakening of the Thai currency, he added.
Poon advised close monitoring of foreign investors amid a lull in foreign outflows after sell-offs of Thai assets were triggered by heavy increases in the US and Thai 10-year bond yields.
He advised businesses to use hedging tools such as options to manage risks in the highly volatile currency market.
The Land Transport Association of Thailand is threatening to hold rallies outside soon if the government lifts the 30-baht price cap on diesel.
Apichart Prairungruang, the association’s president, said on Monday that truck operators who are part of the group will show up at Government House to submit a letter to PM Prayut Chan-o-cha demanding that the 30-baht price cap continues beyond April 30.
The Energy Ministry has said the Oil Fund, which is used to subsidise retail diesel prices, is running out so the subsidy must be lifted at the end of this month.
Apichart, however, pointed out that if the price of diesel were to rise beyond 30-baht per litre, then it would affect all sectors and the public would end up bearing the burden of rising prices. Also, he said, a rise in diesel prices would push up transportation costs.
“Transportation fees will rise by 3 per cent for every baht that is added to the price of diesel,” he said.
He added that truck operators actually want diesel to cost no more than 25 baht per litre, but are willing to accept the 30-baht price tag due to the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war.
“But we will not be able to tolerate it if the government lets the price go above 30 baht. The government must think twice because the price of oil affects the cost of manufacturing, and subsequently the entire economy,” Apichart added.
Apart from calling on Prayut to delay the lifting of the price cap, the association will also urge him to fire the energy minister and cut the excise tax on diesel to 0.20 baht per litre.
The association will also urge the government to temporarily suspend the use of bio-diesel, as it pushes up the price of normal diesel by 1.5 to 2 baht per litre. Also, he said, the government will be urged to not add the cost of transportation when it sets the price of fuel.
Apichart did not say when the association will stage the planned rally.
Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith on Monday denied reports on Thai websites that the government would lower the cost-of-living subsidy in a Covid-linked scheme from 50 per cent to 25 per cent.
Several websites reported on Monday morning that the Finance Ministry would alter the Khon La Khrueng (half-half) scheme to Khon La Siew (75:25) scheme after the “Rao Chana” (We win) Facebook page of the ministry made a post on Sunday that the Khon La Khrueng scheme would end soon.
“Get ready to say goodbye to Khon La Khrueng and meet ‘Khon La Siew’. The government will pay 25 per cent and the people will pay 75 per cent,” the post states. The post remained on Monday afternoon even after Arkhom denied such a plan.
Under the Khon La Khrueng scheme, which has been launched in four phases so far, the government transfers a sum of money to the G Wallet account of a recipient. The provided sum can be used to subsidise half the price of goods and services the recipient pays for, with the subsidy which is limited to THB150 a day. This means when a subsidy recipient pays THB300 for goods or services, the amount in the G Wallet will be deducted by THB150 and the money of the buyer will be deducted by THB150.
Arkhom told reporters on Monday afternoon that the Finance Ministry had not yet decided on whether to launch another phase of the subsidy scheme.
He said the ministry has budget constraints and the country’s economic indicators are improving.
“It has to be considered whether those who have regular income and those with daily income will have more income after the economy has improved. This is because when the economy has improved, this kind of stimulus measure will be reduced,” Arkhom said.
“It will be Khon La Khrueng Phase 5. I didn’t say Khon La Siew. But It has to be first considered whether there should be a Phase 5.”
The finance minister affirmed that the fourth phase of the Khon La Khrueng will end as scheduled on April 30 and there will be no new measure starting on May 1 because the government will have to assess the situation and whether the subsidy measure was required.
Thailand exported 93,840 cars in March, down by 10.21 per cent year on year due to a shortage of parts and semiconductors for some car models, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said on Monday.
“However, car export in March rose 18.11 per cent compared to February,” FTI vice president and spokesman Surapong Paisitpattanapong said.
In the first quarter of 2022, Thailand exported 243,124 cars, down 5.81 per cent year on year. However, the value of cars and components exported in the first quarter came in at 217.60 billion baht, up 2.82 per cent year on year, he added.
A shortage of parts and semiconductors had triggered a global decline in the manufacturing and export of cars, he said.
Surapong also said it is necessary to monitor the Russia-Ukraine war as it will intensify a shortage of parts and semiconductors.
Surapong explained that if the war is prolonged, then the global production of cars will drop by about 2.8 million vehicles.
Meanwhile, some automakers have also stopped taking reservations for electric vehicles due to the Covid-19 lockdown in Shanghai, where many large semiconductor manufacturers are located, he added.
Thailand manufactured 172,671 cars in March alone, up 6.25 per cent year on year. Of them, 87,133 were produced for the local market, up 32.16 per cent year on year.
He added that 480,078 cars were manufactured in the first quarter, up 3.06 per cent year on year, while 87,245 were sold locally in March, up 9.1 per cent year on year. Local first-quarter sales came in at 231,189 cars, up 19.09 per cent year on year, and 448,147 motorcycles, up 2.92 per cent year on year.
He put the surge in local sales down to the easing of lockdown and the launching of government measures to relieve the Covid-19 fallout. He said these government schemes resulted in more cash going into circulation and a boost in people’s purchasing power.
However, he added, it was necessary to monitor the Covid-19 crisis and surging product prices as well as household debts as they will make the economy slow down, he added.
“Cannabis” is regarded as among Thailand’s potential economic crops, with the goal of increasing revenues and income distribution for both organizations and small households, thereby elevating the country’s economy to a greater level.
The government is working on ways to help the “cannabis” industry generate more revenue for the “grassroots economy” while reducing national costs, Deputy Public Health Minister Satit Pitutacha said at Cannabis Wealth, a forum organised by Thansettakij.
The forum, held on on April 22 at The Grand Hyatt Erawan Hotel in Bangkok, brought together experts to discuss the growing economic potential of cannabis for Thailand’s economy. The experts discussed three different topics: Thailand’s readiness for this new opportunity, Thai cannabis’ competitive edge, while industry entrepreneurs offered advice on how to successfully engage in cannabis business.
Speaking at the first forum on Thailand’s readiness for this “new economic opportunity”, Satit laid out the work done by the government to support the Thai cannabis industry and outlined plans for future. The key point of his speech was the opportunity the industry offered, now that the new law allows “cannabis” plantation, research and development, and their usage for health and wellness, food and beverages, and cosmetics.
The next legalisation phase is expected to allow households to be able to plant their own cannabis, and send the plant over to the Department of Traditional and Alternative Medicine for extraction, he said. “With further research and development Thailand can come up with more of our own medicines, reducing the import of medicines, which is an efficient way to reduce cost while generating our own revenue,” Satit said.
Speaking at the forum on “Thai Cannabis’ Competitive Edge”, Dr Kwanchai Wisitthanon, deputy director-general of the Thai Traditional and Alternative Medicine, said cannabis has many health-providing qualities that can support today’s medicinal industry and can also expand the products into many more goods and services.
“Cannabis has the ability to cure symptoms in palliative care as it functions as a painkiller, stimulates appetite and alleviates nausea from chemotherapy radiation,” Kwanchai said.
He suggested that in order to build “Thailand’s grassroots economy,” the district and provincial authority should support households in the sprouting phrase by providing cannabis seedlings to them at an affordable price, as this would be a foundation for the industry to foster.
Cannabis can be transformed into many products and services, and there is no need to fear a red ocean, Kwanchai said.
In the final part of the forum, entrepreneurs who have their business in the upstream, middle stream and downstream supply chain of cannabis shared their insights on how to run a business successfully.
Aunarin Kitpaiboon, the owner of Cannabis Way, shared her experience of planting “cannabis”, managing the CBD Agro-Tech Center for CBD extraction, and the cannabis refreshment drink kiosk. One of the main challenges she faces is “quality control” in planting cannabis, which is the most important part since it is where tincture is controlled.
“Newcomers to the industry have to conduct in-depth studies before they start planting cannabis,” Aunarin said.
In March alone, some 53 investors brought 10.83 billion baht to Thailand, the Commerce Ministry said on Monday.
Of the investors, 17 hold business licences and 36 hold business certificates, Deputy Commerce Minister Sinit Lertkrai said.
He added that these investments created 447 jobs for locals and brought in advanced technology, such as oil well control, advanced solar panel design and installation of electric vehicle charging stations.
Most businesses given the go-ahead in March match the government’s policy to promote investment and support industry to boost the economy, he said.
He added that 29 of the investors were based in Bangkok and 10 in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). The 10 foreigners invested 6.32 billion baht in EEC, accounting for 58 per cent of all foreign investment.
Of the 10 investors, three hail from China and have invested 3.18 billion baht, two come from Japan with 630 million baht, and one from the US with 637 million baht, he said.
The EEC investors are focusing on the telecommunications and mobile phone industry, international trading companies, raw materials and spare parts as well as the manufacturing of automobile parts, he added.
The baht opened at 33.96 to the US dollar on Monday, weakening slightly from Friday’s close of 33.94 and edging closer to the 34 level.
The Thai currency is expected to move between 33.85 and 34.05 during the day and between 33.60 and 34.15 during the week, Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool said.
Poon predicted the baht could drop below the key level of 34 to the dollar due to the strengthening dollar and dividend payments. Breaching that closely watched level would invite further losses for the Thai currency.
Poon advised close monitoring of foreign investors, cautioning that the baht would face downward pressure if they sold a large quantity of stocks and bonds.
He said the baht’s key resistance level is 34, at which point exporters would sell the dollar.
He advised businesses to use hedging tools such as options to manage risks in the highly volatile currency market.
He added that the dollar could rise further supported by a risk-averse market and listed companies’ reports. It could also be supported by a weakening Yen if the Bank of Japan eases monetary policy following the US Federal Reserve’s move to raise its interest rate.
Ten major Thai commercial banks have reported a combined net profit of over 53 billion baht in the first quarter of 2022, up 14.4 per cent from the same period last year.
The increase was attributed to higher interest revenue earned from new loans and lower coverage ratio for non-performing loans.
Those 10 banks reported net profit totalling THB53.3 billion in the first quarter, up by THB6.7 billion from the same period last year.
CIMB Thai’s net profit amounted to THB1.1 billion, a 211 per cent jump from the first quarter of last year. That was the largest gain in terms of percentage points among the 10 major banks.
Krungthai Bank came second with its net profit increasing 57.4 per cent, followed by Kiatnakin Phatra Bank with a gain of 40.5 per cent, TMB Thanachart (14.8 per cent), Bank of Ayudhya (14 per cent), Kasikornbank (5.4 per cent), Bangkok Bank (2.8 per cent), Tisco Bank (1.8 per cent), and Siam Commercial Bank (1 per cent) as its net profit increased to THB10.2 billion.
However, LH Financial Group, which runs LH Bank, reported an 8.7 per cent decline in net profit, gaining THB511 million in the first quarter, compared to THB560 million in the same period last year.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to drop between 1,675 and 1,680 points on Friday after the US Federal Reserve signalled it would raise the interest rate to 0.5 per cent in May to curb inflation, Krungsri Securities said.
It added that this announcement has pushed the US 10-year bond yield to surge to nearly 3 per cent, resulting in negative sentiment in the index.
“However, mass buy-ups of energy shares in line with rising oil and coal prices, as well as stocks that gained specific positive sentiment, will help boost the index,” Krungsri Securities said.
It recommends the purchase of the following as an investment strategy:
• PTTEP, TOP, IVL, SPRC, BCP and BANPU will benefit from rising prices of oil, coal and gross refining margin.
• PSL and TTA will benefit from the rising freight rate.
• BDMS, BH, INTUCH, ADVANC, BTS and BEM can tolerate market volatility.
The SET Index closed at 1,690.55 on Thursday, up 10.20 points or 0.61 per cent, thanks to a rise in foreign stock markets and speculation in small-cap shares of companies whose first-quarter net profit is expected to rise, such as agriculture, food and finance, Krungsri Securities added.
Transactions totalled 71.08 billion baht with an index high of 1,693.14 and a low of 1,682.65.
The baht opened at 33.90 to the US dollar on Friday, the highest in four months, strengthening from Thursday’s close of 33.85.
Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted that the currency will move between 33.80 and 34 during the day.
He added that the baht may further strengthen to 34 as it is being pressured by a weakening dollar and dividend payments. However, he said, it may not cross the resistance level because exporters are waiting to sell the dollar.
Poon also advised investors to monitor foreign investors, as there is a chance that the baht will test the key resistance level of 34 if foreign investors sell a large number of stocks and bonds.
He added that there is a possibility the market will close at a high-risk level, though foreign investors are still trading in Thai assets.
However, he said, investors should use hedging tools to deal with high volatility in the currency market.
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