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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014268

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to fall to between 1,685 and 1,690 points on Thursday due to the US Federal Reserve’s move to curb inflation, Krungsri Securities said.

“The Fed will shrink its balance sheet by US$95 billion [THB3.18 trillion] per month and raise the interest rate by 0.50 per cent up to twice,” it explained.

Krungsri Securities also said a drop in the crude oil price – after International Energy Agency members agreed to reduce their oil reserves by 120 million barrels to ease fuel prices – as well as the Russia-Ukraine war would pressure the index.

It recommends the purchase of the following as an investment strategy:

• GPSC, BGrim, SCGP, SCC and EPG, which would benefit from the falling oil price.

• AOT, AAV, BA, Mint, Centel, ERW, CPN, CRC, HMPro, CPAll, Makro, Amata, WHA, BH and BDMS, which would gain from countries reopening.

The SET Index closed at 1,701.18 on Tuesday, down 1.75 points or 0.10 per cent. Transactions totalled 68.44 billion baht with an index high of 1,708.89 and a low of 1,698.33.

The index was closed on Wednesday for Chakri Memorial Day.

Published : April 07, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014241

Thai travellers are expected to make some 3.34 million trips to celebrate Songkran from April 13 to 17 and spend around THB11 billion, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) said on Wednesday.

TAT Governor Yuthasak Supasorn said occupancy at hotels and resorts around the country during the period was expected to average around 41 per cent.

He said the travelling and spending would, however, be much lower than the pre-Covid level because the country’s economy had not yet fully recovered and many Thais were wary of the Omicron variant.

The TAT governor said most travellers would likely use their personal vehicles to avoid the chance of contracting the virus and they would spend less than usual during Songkran.

The TAT expects about 754,380 Thais would travel to the Northeast and spend around THB1.3 billion during the Songkran holidays, with average room occupancy of around 55 per cent.

The Central region is expected to see average room occupancy of 53 per cent with 735,166 tourists spending around THB1.47 billion.

The TAT said 560,980 Thais would visit the eastern region, ensuring average hotel room occupancy at 41 per cent, and spend about THB2.3 billion.

Some 445,399 tourists are expected to visit the South and spend around THB2.7 million, with average room occupancy at 37 per cent, while 385,468 tourists are expected to travel to the North and spend THB1.35 billion, with average occupancy at 37 per cent.

The TAT governor said Bangkok would see room occupancy of 27 per cent with 458,907 tourists visiting the capital and spending around THB1.8 million during the Songkran holidays.

The governor said Bangkokians are expected to mostly visit tourist destinations near the capital, such as those in Chonburi, Nakhon Ratchasima, Kanchanaburi and Ayutthaya.

Published : April 06, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014201

Headline inflation in March saw the highest year-on-year increase in 13 years, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office said on Tuesday. Headline inflation was recorded at 104.79 points, up 5.73 per cent from the same month last year.

Trade Policy and Strategy Office chief Ronnarong Phoolpipat told a press conference that March headline inflation had also increased month on month, by 0.66 per cent compared to February’s 104.10 points.

Headline inflation in February had already broken a 13-year record with an increase of 5.28 per cent, but it was even higher in March, Ronnarong said.

The increase in headline inflation was 4.75 per cent in the first quarter, compared to the same quarter last year, Ronnarong said.

He added that core inflation in March, which excludes the impact from fresh food and energy prices, stood at 102.43 points, an increase of 0.23 per cent from February and 2.0 per cent year on year.

Ronnarong said headline inflation rose steeply in March because energy prices spiked by 32.43 per cent. He said the main impact — 32.43 per cent — came from the rise in oil prices, and 39.95 per cent from the increase in power bills. Moreover, the prices of fresh vegetables increased by 9.96 per cent, meat, pork and chicken by 5.74 per cent, and eggs and milk by 6.08 per cent.

Ronnarong said March saw increases in the prices of 280 items, including electricity, fuel, lunch meals per dish, cooking oil and water bills.

He said the trend of the first three months showed that inflation would continue to increase in April as the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war still has an impact on prices.

Ronnarong added that his office had adjusted the estimated inflation of 2022 from 0.7-2.4 per cent to 4-5 per cent. The initial inflation estimate was made in November last year, before the war broke out, so the estimate was revised based on the current situation, he added.

Published : April 05, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014184

The baht opened at 33.44 to the US dollar on Tuesday, strengthening from Monday’s close of 33.51.

Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted the Thai currency would move between 33.35 and 33.55 during the day.

Poon said that the baht is likely to swing in a wide range but with no clear sign of direction. Uncertainty over the Ukraine-Russia conflict has been causing the dollar to strengthen and the baht to weaken over the past six weeks.

Meanwhile, the worsening Covid-19 situation in China may pressure currencies in Asia, especially Asian economies heavily exposed to China.

However, the baht is being supported by foreign inflows to the Thai market. Foreign investors continue to buy Thai assets, especially both short- and long-term bonds.

Poon forecast a resistance level for the baht of 33.70, at which point exporters would offload the dollar. He predicted a key support level of 33.20, which would spur importers to buy dollars.

Amid the current high volatility in the currency market, businesses should use hedging tools such as options to manage risks, he added.

Published : April 05, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014166

The Stock Exchange of Thailand is keeping pace with changing times by allowing the digital asset market to be in lockstep with the traditional capital market so they can have parallel growth, making it easier for all groups of investors.

The SET plans to launch this year “Live Exchange”, a funding platform for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and startups, as well as facilitate the expansion and easier access to both investment and utility tokens. 

The Thai Digital Assets Exchange (TDX) will offer more flexibility to all groups of investors to facilitate investing in both traditional capital and digital markets, allowing a range of options to invest and raise capital.
Speaking at the forum: “The New Paradigm Shift Of The Financial World”, hosted by The Nation and Asia News Network on March 30, the president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, Pakorn Peetathawatchai, shared the goal of evolving and connecting the capital market and digital asset market to ensure growth and sustainability for both business and society.
Offering an overview of the market, he said in 2021, the Thai capital market had continued to grow and was the 7th biggest in Asia and 18th in the world in market cap. He said the Thai capital market has been the biggest in Asean for almost a decade. 

The SET estimates the key developments in the Thai capital market through three strategies: market growth; infrastructure expansion, environmental solution and social development.
The SET wants to make the capital market more accessible by simplifying the procedures for opening new trading accounts, encouraging retail investors to use a digital platform for trading, and attracting young investors.
He said the SET is going to offer an open platform, but he made it clear that they will not touch crypto. He made the point that most of the digital asset trading as of now revolves around cryptocurrency. The TDX platform would be launched in the third quarter this year including the investment and utility tokens, he said.
Fundraising through tokenisation is now a global trend. Also, many features for investors are available according to their needs, while upholding investor protection measures. Investors can improve token liquidity by trading in the secondary digital asset exchange. Most digital asset exchanges are open 24/7. The settlement cycle is extremely fast compared with the traditional type. So, tokenisation can solve the problem for retail investors as it involves lower cost and offers more liquidity. As a result investors have more chances to make higher profit, he said.
All investments carry risks, and there are pros and cons in both the traditional and digital markets. The SET has an important role of setting strict criteria for investors. All protocols are only part of measures to protect the sector against scammers and confusing information. Hence, the Thai SET plans all strategies to generate the most benefit to investors, he said.

Published : April 04, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014152

The National Credit Bureau has reported that Covid-19 restrictions over two years have caused the non-performing loans (NPLs) of small-time borrowers and small and medium enterprises to rise to 200 billion baht and 320 billion baht respectively.

While reporting Thailand’s NPL situation at a recent seminar, the bureau also called on the government to come up with measures to help small-time debtors and SMEs, whose loans had become NPLs due to the Covid-19 crisis.

NPLs of small-time debtors and SMEs caused by the Covid crisis have been coded O21. The bureau said it learned that the O21 borrowers had been prompt with their payments before the Covid-19 crisis broke out in 2019 and their loans only became NPLs because they were unable to make payments for 90 days or more.

As of 2021 end, the bureau said there were 4.3 million NPL accounts, and 2.3 million of them were O21 NPLs worth 200 billion baht.

The bureau added that these O21-code debtors deserve help from the government because it is not their fault that they defaulted on their payments. It pointed out that these debtors were unable to pay their debts because they had complied with the Covid-containment measures taken by the Public Health Ministry.

The bureau also said the accumulated NPL of small-time debtors under all codes and categories at the end of 2021 stood at 950 billion baht, up 7.5 per cent compared to the end of 2020.

The accumulated debt (including NPLs) held by small-time borrowers can be divided by age group, with Gen Z (1997-2012) owing 97 billion baht, Gen Y (1981-1996) 4.5 trillion baht, Gen X (1965-1981) 3.8 trillion baht, Baby Boomers (1946-1964) 1.1 trillion baht and the Silent Generation (1928-1945) owing 26 billion baht, the report said.

Meanwhile, SMEs owe about 3.93 trillion baht, it said. As of the end of 2021, 286,300 SMEs with juristic entity status have accumulated NPLs worth 320 billion baht or 7.9 per cent of the overall loans for SMEs.

The report said SMEs that have been unable to service their debts hail from the hotel and food industry, property and construction, manufacturing, wholesale and retail, and the repairing of vehicles and motorcycles.

The report said SMEs from these five industries had accumulated NPLs worth 270 billion baht and have joined debt-restructuring programmes worth 250 billion baht.

The bureau also said that household debt is continuing to rise. As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, household debt stood at 14.58 trillion, compared to 14.34 trillion at the end of the third quarter.

It said the Bank of Thailand has helped restructure 4.83 million household debts worth 3.19 trillion baht at the end of January this year.

Published : April 04, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014144

The baht opened at 33.48 to the US dollar on Monday, weakening from Friday’s close of 33.46.

The Thai currency is expected to move between 33.40 and 33.60 during the day and between 33.20 and 33.80 during the week, Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool said.

Poon said that the baht is likely to swing widely if foreign investors switch to selling over market concern that the US Federal Reserve will adopt quantitative tightening as early as next month (May).

He forecast that exporters would sell the dollar at a resistance level of 33.70.

Poon said that amid the current high volatility in the currency market, businesses should use hedging tools such as options to manage risks.

For the dollar, he expected uncertainty over the Ukraine-Russia conflict to drive up demand for the US currency, which is seen as a safe haven.

However, he advised investors to heed Fed signals to reduce the balance sheet or apply tightening, as these moves would increase the US bond yield and cause dollar fluctuations.

Published : April 04, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014125

Thailand and Vietnam have pledged to tighten economic cooperation in a bid to push the value of bilateral trade to US$25 billion by 2025.

The resolution was made at a discussion between the Thai ambassador to Vietnam, Nikorndej Balankura, and Vietnam PM Pham Minh Chính in Hanoi on March 31.

The two met to discuss economic cooperation at bilateral, sub-regional and multi-national levels.

At the discussion, Nikorndej also proposed and won the premier’s promise that shipping Thai fruits to China via Vietnam would be made easier. He said the premier promised full cooperation in allowing Thailand to use Vietnam as a conduit to China.

The ambassador also asked the premier to open the door to investments in Vietnam, especially in the alternative energy sector. He said more Thais are interested in investing in Vietnam and so far, a third of the investments made by Thais have been in the energy sector.

He added that allowing Thais to invest in the clean energy sector will also help Vietnam achieve its net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050. The ambassador said Thailand hopes to be among the top five foreign investors in Vietnam soon.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chính congratulated Thailand for successfully setting up the ThaiCham, or chamber of commerce and industry, in Vietnam to assist and drive bilateral investments.

The two sides also discussed cooperation in the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS).

Nikorndej proposed that Thailand and Vietnam link up supplies for industries in both countries. The prime minister, meanwhile, also pledged support for Thailand during the hosting of the Apec Summit in November.

Published : April 03, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014121

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising production costs are pressuring Thailand’s export sector, the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) reports.

Thailand’s export value in the first two months this year was US$44.74 billion, up 12.2 per cent year on year, The TNSC said on Saturday.

Exports were worth $21.25 billion in January and $23.48 billion in February, up 8 per cent and 16.2 per cent, respectively.

TNSC chairman Chaichan Charoensuk said January-February exports expanded strongly on orders made before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.

He expects Thai exports in the first quarter to expand around 5 per cent year on year before falling below 5 per cent in the second quarter under pressure from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the resulting rise in production costs.

“The price of Thai export goods has increased by 5-10 per cent,” he added.

Chaichan Charoensuk

The TNSC, trade associations and industries concluded on March 25 that the war would drag on and continue to drive up prices of raw materials, Chaichan said.

Russia’s ban on exports of crude oil, natural gas and rare minerals, as well as economic sanctions on Moscow, were affecting many industries, he added.

However, five major Thai exports – rubber and rubber products, foods, cassava products, sugar and rice – would help lift revenue amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

“Meanwhile, tyres, textiles, auto parts, plastic beads and electrical appliances will also boost Thai exports,” he added.

Chaichan warned, however, that the microchip shortage in the automobile industry should be tackled urgently as Russia’s ban on exports of chip materials would exacerbate the issue.

TNSC cut its forecast for Thailand’s export growth this year from 5-8 per cent to no more than 5 per cent. Thai exports would drop further if the Russia-Ukraine war drags on and sparks further inflation and contraction of the global economy, Chaichan added.

Published : April 03, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40014120

Thailand exported 149,284 cars in the first two months this year, down 2.8 per cent year on year due to a microchip shortage, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reports.

The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict will exacerbate shortages in microchips and auto parts as Russia has halted exports of nickel, palladium and other raw-material metals, said Surapong Paisitpattanapong, FTI vice president and auto chapter chief.

Also, western countries were boycotting goods from Russia, he added.

The chip shortage came after Covid-19 sparked rising demand for electronic devices, Surapong explained.

“It will take two years for microchip manufacturers to expand production, so we expect the shortage to be resolved in 2024.”

The FTI forecasts Thai car exports in the first quarter and first half of this year will drop, Surapong said.

However, the FTI has retained its 2022 export target of 1 million cars compared to 950,000 last year. Thailand’s car production has dropped from 170,000 per month to 150,000 per month, he said.

The FTI was monitoring the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s impact on the economy and trade, as well as the impact of rising inflation on daily living costs, he added.

Published : April 03, 2022

By : THE NATION