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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013986

The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Wednesday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.50 per cent to support the country’s economic recovery.

MPC secretary Piti Disyata said that the committee forecast GDP growth at 3.2 per cent in 2022 and 4.4 per cent in 2023 due to the recovery in domestic demand and the tourism sector.

He said the Omicron variant of Covid-19 had not affected the economy as much as other waves, while the sanctions on Russia would push up the prices, but it would not affect the overall recovery.

However, economic growth might get pressured by the shortage of materials in some industries and the increasing cost for both the household and business sectors in the vulnerable group.

He added that the inflation rate might hit 4.9 per cent in 2022 but fall to 1.7 per cent in 2023. The inflation rate could be more than 5 per cent in the second and third quarters of 2022 due to the energy prices and the food costs before decreasing in 2023.

The MPC estimated that the high rate might be pressured by cost-push inflation. Meanwhile, demand-pull inflation is still at a low level as incomes are recovering.

The MPC will closely monitor the situation to ensure that the inflation rate in the mid-term will be in line with monetary policy.

He added that the overall currency situation is still stable as liquidity in the currency system is high, but the distribution might be different in each economic sector.

Regarding the exchange rate, he said that the baht has weakened due to the worry about the Ukraine-Russia conflict and forecast that central banks will increase the interest rate.

The MPC has approved close monitoring of developments in the global and Thai currency markets and push the FX ecosystem continuously, especially supporting SME operators by preventing volatility. It also approved financial measures that would support economic recovery in the right aspects, because it is important to create recovery in an uncertain situation. The government should focus on generating revenue and easing the living costs for vulnerable groups and the monetary policy should also support liquidity and help ease the debt situation.

Published : March 30, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013968

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to rise to between 1,695 and 1,700 points on Wednesday before falling, Krungsri Securities said.

It said the index gained positive sentiment from progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks after Moscow promised to reduce military operations to facilitate upcoming negotiations.

However, Krungsri Securities predicted that the falling oil price and a change in the Thailand Futures Exchange series would cause volatility in the index.

It also advised investors to follow the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on Thailand’s interest rate and its economic direction.

“The interest rate is expected to be maintained at 0.5 per cent,” Krungsri Securities predicted.

It recommends the purchase of the following stocks as an investment strategy:

• GPSC, BGrim, SCGP and EPG, which would benefit from the falling oil price.

• KCE, Hana, SVI, BBIK, BE8 and ADD, which would gain from rising technology share prices.

• AOT, AAV, BA, Mint, Centel, ERW, BH and BDMS, which would benefit from further easing of Covid-19 restrictions.

The SET Index closed at 1,689.74 on Tuesday, up 5.44 points or 0.32 per cent. Transactions totalled 76.79 billion baht with an index high of 1,692.90 and a low of 1,686.84.

Published : March 30, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013951

The Tourism Council of Thailand hopes to see further relaxation of Covid measures to woo at least 16 million foreign tourists this year to revive the slumping industry.

The council held a joint press conference with the Tourism Authority of Thailand and the Rajamangala University of Technology Srivijaya to announce the survey of the confidence index of tourism business operators for the first quarter of 2022.

Council chairman Chamnarn Srisawad said in a statement that the index reading at 44 was a reflection that the tourism industry was still in a difficult situation, although it was better than the same period last year. Chamnarn said the index was a little bit lower than the previous quarter apparently because of concerns over the Omicron variant of Covid-19 virus.

He noted that the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war had caused fuel prices to increase by almost 40 per cent, resulting in higher cost of travel so local travel had slowed down in the first quarter.

Chamnarn said the survey found that 89 per cent of hotels and resorts were operating in the first quarter, showing almost all operators have resumed business.

But not many foreign tourists visited the Kingdom during the period, forcing some businesses to start laying off staff. It is expected that more staff would be laid off in the next quarter if the situation does not improve, he warned.

He said the survey found that 88 per cent of the hotels, which have resumed businesses, had only 30 per cent room occupancy and 95 per cent of hotels have lesser than half the pre-Covid income.

He said most hotel operators had called on the government to abolish RT-PCR tests for arriving foreign tourists.

Chamnarn noted that the tourism industry in other countries, including Europe and America as well as Asia, was improving because of their ease-of-travel policy. The countries have eased Covid measures to a point where almost no restrictions were left.

The improved situation around the world has given the council hope that the Thai tourism industry would see a revival to generate some 20 per cent of GDP and create 7.5 million jobs like in the pre-Covid period.

Chamnarn said to revive the industry, tourism must be redesigned to create balance in three dimensions: demand and supply, natural and manmade tourism, and city and community tourism.

To create supply-demand balance, the country would need 16 million foreign tourists and 75 million trips by domestic tourists to generate some THB1.2 trillion in tourism income to reach 40 per cent of the pre-Covid level.

He said the tourism industry must encourage tourists to visit manmade tourism sites to create a balance with natural tourism sites, which were overexploited in the the past. For example, health, sports and food tourisms should be promoted, Chamnarn said.

He said in the past, certain provinces had problems of over-tourism so there should be smart tourism innovations to distribute tourists to other sites to create a balance of city and community tourism.

Kitti Pornsiwakij, chairman of the council’s subcommittee on smart tourism, said the survey found that most tourism operators wanted easing of travel restrictions by having the government cancel the Thailand Pass system and end RT-PCR test on arrival for foreign tourists.

The tourism operators also called on the government to set up a fund to train personnel for the tourism industry and develop technologies and services for the industry.

Published : March 29, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013933

The baht opened at 33.79 to the US dollar on Tuesday, weakening from Monday’s close of 33.77 and continuing its six-week slide.

Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted the Thai currency would move between 33.65 and 33.90 during the day.

Poon expected the baht to fluctuate in a wide range and test a new resistance level at 33.90 to the dollar, citing the impact on Thai exports and tourism of the Covid-19 situation in China.

He added that the baht would also face downward pressure from speculators seeking to purchase the low-lying Yen as Japanese companies approach the end of the fiscal year (March 31).

Poon said the baht’s slide would be limited if foreign investors decide against selling off Thai assets. Foreigner inflows recently returned to the Thai stock market, though sales of short-term bonds are slowing. However, foreign investors are now selling long-term bonds in Emerging Asia including Thailand, to ease the pressure of rising bond yields.

Poon expects the US 10-year bonds to hit their highest yields this year in May amid the expected interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. This should spur foreign inflows to Thai long-term bonds, he added.

The market is open to more risk but asset prices were fluctuating heavily, the analyst said. The supporting factor for the currency market was hope coming from the Ukraine-Russia negotiations, after Ukraine signalled it may adopt a neutral status.

However, China’s Covid-19 situation was pressuring the currency market after the officials announced the lockdown of Shanghai. This would affect economic recovery in China and globally while also driving down the price of crude oil from $114 to $108 per barrel.

Published : March 29, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013918

A shipment of processed chicken left Thailand’s shores on Monday for Saudi Arabia for the first time in 18 years after the two kingdoms recently normalised ties.

Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit presided over a ceremony marking the first shipment of processed chicken at the Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF) factory in Minburi. Also present were CPF CEO Prasit Boondoungprasert, secretary-general of the Central Islamic Committee Pol Maj-General Surin Palare, advisor to the commerce minister Mallikar Boonmeetrakul, director-general of the Department of International Trade Promotion Phusit Ratanakul Serirerngrit and Watnasak Sua-iam, director-general of the Department of Internal Trade.

Prasit thanked Jurin and Agriculture Minister Chalermchai Sri-on for negotiating the deal with Saudi authorities.

He said that thanks to the two ministers, five chicken-processing factories owned by CPF have been given the Saudi Arabian stamp of approval.

“This coordination with Saudi Arabia will boost the country’s chicken exports sustainably,” he said.

CPF expects to earn close to 500 million baht from the export of some 6,000 tonnes of processed chicken to Saudi Arabia this year.

Jurin, meanwhile, said the Monday shipment made history as it was the first step towards bilateral trade in 18 years. He added that Thai diplomats, in coordination with the Foreign Ministry, had negotiated the certification of 11 factories in Thailand to export chicken meat to the Middle Eastern country.

Jurin said 75 per cent of chicken consumed in Saudi Arabia is imported, 25 per cent of which is shipped from Ukraine and France. However, he said, the aim is for Thailand to soon become a key exporter of chicken to Saudi Arabia.

Thailand exported about 900,000 tonnes of chicken meat earning some 100 billion baht last year, Jurin said. He added that this amount would rise to about 980,000 tonnes per year now that the Saudi Arabian market has been opened to Thailand.

Diplomatic ties between the two countries have been on the rocks over the “Blue Diamond Affair”, in which hundreds of priceless jewels were stolen from Prince Faisal bin Fahd’s palace by a Thai janitor in 1989.

Published : March 28, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013898

The baht opened at 33.64 to the US dollar on Monday, weakening from Friday’s close of 33.57.

The Thai currency is expected to move between 33.55 and 33.75 during the day and between 33.40 and 33.80 during the week, Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool said.

Poon said the baht is likely to fluctuate in a wide range. However, the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to maintain the policy interest rate might pressure the baht to weaken, he added.

Moreover, uncertainty over the Ukraine-Russia conflict could add downward pressure on the baht and other currencies in Emerging Asia – China, India, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam.

Poon said that investors should monitor transactions of foreign investors after they returned to the Thai stock market in force. Last week saw foreign investors purchase 5 billion baht worth of Thai stocks. Meanwhile, sales of short-term bonds are slowing.

He forecast a baht resistance level of 33.75, which would see exporters selling the dollar.

He added that the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US Federal Reserve’s signalled interest-rate rise could help support the dollar.

Published : March 28, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013895

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to fall to between 1,665 and 1,670 points on Monday after the US Federal Reserve announced inflation had to be tackled as soon as possible, Krungsri Securities said.

The announcement sparked concern the Fed would raise the interest rate by 0.50 per cent in May, it said.

It added that the SET Index would also be under pressure from the falling oil price.

“However, window dressing and speculation in some stocks will help the index to rebound,” Krungsri Securities said.

It recommended the purchase of the following as an investment strategy:

• GPSC, BGRIM, SCGP and EPG would benefit from falling oil price.

• BDMS, BH, INTUCH, ADVANC, BTS and BEM which are defensive stocks.

• TTB, BBL, PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, BCP, IVL, FORTH, HMPRO, CPALL, MAKRO, OSP and TWPC, whose first-quarter business turnover this year are expected to grow.

The SET Index closed at 1,676.80 on Friday, down 4.09 points or 0.24 per cent. Transactions totalled 62.11 billion baht.

Published : March 28, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013882

Thailand is financially stable despite the Covid-19 crisis and global economic woes, the government spokesman said on Sunday.

Spokesman Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana said the country is economically strong even though the government has had to offer subsidies to ease the burden on citizens affected by the pandemic and global oil crisis. He added that the country’s financial stability has been maintained because the government has implemented support measures under strict financial discipline.

Thanakorn added that the country’s financial stability is evident from the fact that the treasury had about 418.59 billion baht in cash for the first five months of the 2022 fiscal year (October 2021-February 2022).

During these five months, the Finance Ministry earned about 901.44 billion baht in revenue, while government spending came in at 1.43 trillion baht, forcing it to borrow 394.47 billion baht to offset the deficit.

The spokesman added that the government had made provisions for a budget deficit of 700 billion baht for the 2022 fiscal year and the more than 400 billion baht cash in the treasury was in line with its plan to maintain a reserve of 400 billion to 500 billion baht.

The spokesman said the government was confident that its revenue for the entire fiscal year would meet the target of 2.4 trillion baht, adding that the country’s foreign exchange reserve is also strong at US$245 billion.

Thanakorn added that the government was able to keep the price of consumer goods stable and the inflation at a manageable rate.

Rising global energy prices pushed inflation up to 3 per cent in January and 5 per cent in February. However, if the rising price of fuel is not taken into account, then the rate of inflation comes in at 0.5 per cent in January and 1.8 per cent in February, he said.

The spokesman added that the government has set up 10 measures to help mitigate the burden on people affected by the rising prices of fuel and consumer goods, adding that the measures are adjusted according to the situation.

He added that the rate of unemployment dropped to 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter last year when the government loosened Covid-19 restrictions in November. Its Rao Tiew Duay Kan (We Travel Together) co-payment tourism scheme also helped create jobs.

He went on to say that the export sector has been improving since 2021 after the factory quarantine policy was implemented, allowing factories to resume operations.

Thanakorn said the value of exports in 2021 rose by about 17-20 per cent and is expected to expand by another 5-10 per cent this year.

He added that Thailand can expect to enjoy economic growth this year thanks to agriculture and border trade as these two sectors have not been affected by Covid-19. He pointed out that Asean countries still require consumer goods made from agricultural products made in Thailand.

The spokesman said growth would also be fuelled by export and government spending, as well as the expansion of investment by the private sector, especially in the electric vehicle industry thanks to supportive measures offered by the government.

Published : March 27, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013881

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) says global disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict offers major opportunities for the Thai economy.

The Ukraine-Russia war is hitting trade across the world including Thailand, driving up the price of fuel and other commodities. Thailand’s economic recovery is now slowing under pressure from inflation, as sanctions imposed on Russia by the West threaten to make the situation even worse.

On Wednesday, representatives of the Thai private sector discussed how to turn this crisis into an opportunity at “The Big Issue 2022” seminar organised by Thansettakij and Bangkokbiz.

Kriengkrai Thiennukul, vice chairman of the FTI, said the conflict was affecting supply chains for many important products. However, Thailand could turn this disruption into an opportunity by establishing industrial estates for several of the affected supply chains, he added.

He said Thailand had the potential to produce material or parts for many industries.

Thai manufacturers could proceed even with the world supply chain facing problems while they could also attract foreign investment to boost the domestic economy.

He said the FTI would propose this move to the Eastern Economic Corridor policy committee and Thailand Board of Investment soon.

Kriengkrai also suggested pushing the Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) model as the new economic engine to create added value across Thai industries.

Meanwhile, Thailand has the potential to become a top-10 exporter of trending products such as plant-based food, he said. The country should push to use more bio-fertilisers to increase the export value of organic goods, he continued.

Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the government should speed up its transition to endemic Covid-19. He said it should not wait until July but instead gradually ease restrictions on economic activities to boost Thailand’s competitiveness and attract tourists.

Sanan urged the introduction of innovative technologies to drive the economy. He also pushed targets for new S-Curve businesses via the four Rs, namely Restart: create new businesses from existing ones; Reimagine: rethink business models to respond to the changing situation; Recover: reorientate and find new opportunities for recovery; and Reform: scrap outdated regulations and laws to transition to e-government.

Sanan added that the government should keep the policy interest rate low to boost SMEs and liquidity. Failure to keep the interest rate low would lead to GDP growth of less than 3 per cent and stagflation, he warned. The government should also use budget borrowing to lift the economy after the Cabinet raised the debt ceiling to 70 per cent.

Payong Srivanich, president of Krungthai Bank, urged the government to help with manufacturing costs, living costs, and the employment situation. It should also adopt measures to boost economic recovery.

In the mid to long term, the government should focus on transitioning to a green economy to reach the goals of the COP 26 global climate conference. This would create trust for investment that would boost employment and economic circulation. Manufacturing and investment should be geared to the digital economy era to increase Thailand’s competitiveness, Payong added.

Moreover, he urged the government to avoid overreliance on exports and tourism, especially Chinese tourists. He suggested focusing on quality tourism and promoting Thailand to new groups of visitors.

Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (FETCO), noted that government and private debt had soared above US$300 trillion globally because of the Covid-19 crisis.

He warned that purchasing power would be hit if the interest rate is increased.

Addressing inflation, he said the prices of 94 per cent of products that had risen would not fall again once the inflation crisis was over, admitting this was a difficult problem to solve.

He wanted the government to use this opportunity to support investment for small operators and start-ups. FETCO has already proposed this plan to government.

Paiboon added that inflation was being driven up by the rising fuel price. Raising the interest rate would not bring down fuel prices or solve inflation. Instead, the government should continue subsidising fuel to cap prices, he said.

Published : March 27, 2022

By : THE NATION

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013877

In a bid to help stimulate the tourism industry, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is urging people to go on working holidays as part of the “Workation Paradise Throughout Thailand” campaign.

Government spokesman Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana said on Sunday that the campaign is being launched with the economy and public health in mind.

He said the Tourism and Sports Ministry has taken up the initiative and is looking for the best way to launch it.

“The new policy will encourage people to travel during weekdays, so they can work in new surroundings as well as help stimulate the tourism sector. It will also encourage tourism operators to adjust and develop their hotels and resorts from a new dimension to respond to the trend of working holidays,” he said.

Thanakorn added that is “workation” trend will boost revenue for the tourism industry and allow it to move forward sustainably.

The spokesman said the Tourism and Sports Ministry expects Thailand to earn up to 1.8 trillion baht from tourism this year. The 15 million foreign tourists expected this year should generate up to 800 billion in revenue, while domestic tourists should generate some 700 billion.

“The government will continue promoting tourism despite the ongoing spread of the Omicron variant. The authorities will come up with measures to prepare for transitioning to endemic. The measures will respond to the current situation by taking public health into account,” he said.

Though the government has launched the Rao Tiew Duay Kan (We Travel Together) co-payment scheme, it has not said whether a new subsidy will be launched for this “workation” scheme.

Published : March 27, 2022

By : THE NATION