Veteran protest leader Weng Tojirakarn said the situation had not yet reached a “boiling point”, enough for the general public to take to the streets. The current movement, led by the younger generation and intellectuals, also faced a challenge on how to connect with the people, he said.

Pro-democracy scholar Anusorn Unno explained that the political context today differed from that during the 1973 protests, and the scale of the movement against the regime may not be able to match that of the past. But the current student-led movement was a good sign of “new politics without the colour codes” that could “get the junta trembling”, he said.

The remarks came following an announcement from pro-democracy activists that they would stage a series of demonstrations calling for an election, after the junta-appointed legislature passed a bill that could delay the promised poll by three months.

The protests naturally added fuel to the flames as the military-backed government has already been attacked on all fronts – from its poor administration to the recent watch scandal involving its second in command, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan.

Weng, a leader of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) that successfully led a large-scale demonstration of red shirts, said the junta was currently in bad shape. However, the climax that could lead to its end had yet to come.

“The NCPO [National Council for Peace and Order] is being bombarded today with many issues. The bread-and-butter problem is quietly undermining its government. People are enraged about Prawit’s watches. The election is being delayed indefinitely,” he said. “All these are building up public dissatisfaction. But still, we haven’t really reached the peak.”

Asked about the young activists, mostly university students, taking the lead in the movement for democracy, Weng said this was not uncommon. In Thai history, this role had always been one for scholars and students. “There are many things that still get in the way, obstructing this movement from growing to be as big as the yellow-shirt People’s Alliance for Democracy, the red-shirt UDD, or the People’s Democratic Reform Committee,” he said. “Most importantly, the NCPO has taken strong measures against demonstrators. It’s hard for people to come out.”

However, Anusorn, who has played a major role in activities against the junta in the past couple of years, pointed out that the NCPO’s fear tactics may not really work.

“I think it has a reverse effect. As people get sued for marching for democracy, more people come out to show solidarity and to support us.”

But Anusorn said that the recent movement and the mass demonstrations in 1973 were not comparable. Back then there was no colour-coded politics and the people had a clear and common enemy, which was the dictator ruler. “While the movement may not drive the ruler out of the country, it does its job of informing the people that they are disrespected by a ruler who cannot be held accountable,” he said.

Rangsiman Rome, the face of the young movement, said he did not know whether the demonstrations would work, or whether they could really drive the junta out of office. The activists would just focus on what they had to do each day, he said.

“In our group, we have just a handful of people working together. But last time we marched around the Democracy Monument, we saw around 1,500 participants,” he said. “And that was something.”

Rangsiman said he did not know whether the protests would be successful. However, he felt it was the young people’s job to come out and demand an election.

Meanwhile, NCPO spokesman Maj Gen Piyapong Klinphan said that the military was still working with good spirits, trying to keep peace and order.

Business executives have warned that political uncertainty could have long-term consequences.

Kim Eng Tan, senior director, sovereign and international public finance ratings at S&P Global Ratings, said a delay in the election may not affect the country’s sovereign rating in the short run, but political uncertainty could have negative implications in the long term. “Political developments are not expected to affect the rating, but there are long-term consequences,” said Tan. S&P has assigned Thailand an investment grade rating of BBB+ with a stable outlook.

Jen Namchaisiri, president of the Federation of Thai Industries, said foreign investors currently do not ask about the political situation in Thailand, but they are interested in the latest laws and regulations related to investment privileges.

Anusorn Tamajai, dean of Rangsit University’s economics faculty, said some investors would postpone their investments as they were waiting for a clear picture of Thai politics.

In his weekly national address on television on Friday, Prayut said that after all the four necessary organic laws for the next election were published in the Royal Gazette, his Cabinet would inform the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to invite political parties, the Constitution Drafting Commission and the Election Commission to discuss the matter.

“The election date depends on the readiness and agreement of parties involved,” the PM said. “It’s an important national agenda. We may have to commit to it as a mutual contract on how we will move the country forward in accordance with the road map.”

The public in recent weeks has witnessed a series of delays in the passing and enforcing of laws and other legal manoeuvres that have raised doubts over the timing of the next election. Prayut, however, insisted that his government and the NCPO had never interfered with or given instructions to legislators to vote down any bill which could thereby result in postponement of the election.

Prayut last year committed to holding the next election in November of this year, but the poll was delayed to early next year after the National Legislative Assembly last month passed the organic bill on MP elections that included an unusual clause to delay for 90 days the bill’s coming into effect after it was published in the Royal Gazette. According to the 2017 charter, an election must be held within 150 days after the bill takes effect.

Prayut also urged the public and politicians to help keep stability in the country and to avoid triggering conflicts or divisions in society.

“You [the public and politicians] must promise that after the next election, we will have the government and opposition joining forces to benefit the people as well as pushing national reform,” he said.

Yesterday, pro-democracy groups continued to hold their political assembly after the junta failed to respond positively to their call for an election. The latest assembly took place the entire afternoon yesterday at Thammasat University’s Tha Prachan campus despite pouring rains. The event featured mainly Hyde-Park style political speeches by student activists such as Rangsiman Rome and Siriwith Seritiwat. The speeches were mainly about the election delays, unfair treatment of democracy advocates by the regime, and the luxury watch scandal. The activists condemned the undemocratic rule and demanded an election this year. Led by groups of young activists from Democracy Restoration and Start Up People, the demonstration yesterday attracted more than 300 people despite the political ban imposed by the ruling junta.

The demonstration was the third in a series of anti-junta and pro-election activities planned by the groups.

A participant, who requested her name be withheld, said she always joined the assembly held by student activists because other protests against the NCPO were so rare.

“I feel the oppression and I want an expression,” she said.

Pheu Thai Party’s former commerce minister, Watana Muangsook, was also at the venue, wearing a pink T-shirt. The politician said he came as an individual and was not afraid that he may be seen as a backer of the groups.

The groups recently called on politicians to join them, but major parties Pheu Thai and Democrats feared that doing so might weaken the momentum of the young activist movement.

Watana said if the junta wanted to prosecute him for attending the protest, he was not concerned. He also called for Prayut to return power to the people and hold an election soon.

Protesters yesterday were enthusiastic as the activists reprimanded the NCPO. Political satire standees were erected around the venue. One portrayed a tank obstructing an election, while another featured a man with several watches waiting impatiently for an election.

Some protesters wore a paper mask of the PM’s caricature with a long nose like Pinocchio’s. The group dubbed the mask “Yutnocchio”.

Their next rally will be held on March 10.

In his weekly national address on television on Friday, Prayut said that after all the four necessary organic laws for the next election were published in the Royal Gazette, his Cabinet would inform the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to invite political parties, the Constitution Drafting Commission and the Election Commission to discuss the matter.

“The election date depends on the readiness and agreement of parties involved. It’s an important national agenda. We may have to commit it as a mutual contract on how we will move the country forward in accordance with the road map,” the premier said.

The public has witnessed in recent times delays in the passing of laws, their enforcement and legal procedures that have raised doubts over the timing of the next election. Prayut, however, insisted that his government and the NCPO had never interferred with or given instructions to legislators to vote down any bill, which could result in postponement of the election.

Last year, Prayut had committed to holding the next election in November this year but the schedule was delayed to early next year after the National Legislative Assembly last month passed the organic bill on MP election that contains a clause to delay for 90 days the coming into effect of the bill after it was published in the Royal Gazette. According to the 2017 charter, an election must be held within 150 days after the bill takes effect.

Prayut also urged the public and politicians to help keep stability in the country and not to trigger conflicts or divisions in society.

“You [public and politicians] must promise that after the next election, we will have the government and opposition joining forces to benefit the people as well as pushing national reform,” he said.

Observers and critics have suspected that the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) got “some instruction” when it voted on Thursday not to endorse any of the nominations suggested by the selection committee, that also includes the assembly’s president, Pornpetch Wichitcholchai.

However, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan yesterday denied the ruling junta had ordered the NLA to reject all the candidates. He said the assembly members made the decision entirely on their own and the people in power had nothing to do with the outcome.

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said yesterday that he did not think the NLA vote would impact the road map to election.

Thursday’s move by the NLA is the latest in a series of developments that have aroused suspicion of repeated attempts to delay the next election.

Prominent banker Banyong Pongpanich, once a member of a government-appointed committee, has implied that NLA members thought people were stupid enough to believe that lawmakers acted independently.

“I wonder if we are being ruled by undisciplined people,” he said in his Facebook message yesterday.

The European Union again has expressed concern of a possible election delay after the NLA vote on Thursday. The EU ambassador to Thailand, Pirkka Tapiola, raised the matter when he met Deputy Prime Minister Prajin Juntong yesterday.

New process could take six months

After the military coup in May 2014, the junta set a loose “road map for the return to democracy” that contains timeframes for what has to be done before the next election is held.

The people in power and the organs responsible for key duties, such as issuing laws necessary for holding an election, often opted for the maximum timeframe although they could complete the task with less time.

Sometimes they even added more time to the original timeframe. For instance, the NLA in January voted to postpone enforcement of the election law for 90 days, arguing that political parties need more time to complete tasks required under the Political Parties Act. However, politicians maintained that the move was aimed at delaying the next election and allowing the junta more time to stay in power.

With postponement of the election law’s enforcement, the election is now expected to be held in February or March next year, rather than this November, as originally promised by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.

And now that the NLA has rejected all EC candidates, there is concern that the election could be delayed even further.

The process of selecting a new set of candidates and appointing new EC members could take up to six more months.

A new selection committee may need to be appointed, although Pornpetch, a panel member himself, said the old committee could still do the job. However, the old panel’s legitimacy may be questioned after all its nominations were rejected.

Also, it could be more difficult to find qualified applicants to meet stringent qualities set by the Constitution. And many likely applicants might be too discouraged to apply for fear that they could be rejected and have their reputation damaged.

Even after new election commissioners are appointed, they will need time to familiarise themselves with the new tasks and may require an extended timeframe to prepare for the next election.

According to the Constitution and the Election Commission Act, the current EC members are authorised to hold elections although their term has not been extended.

The laws allow them to assume a caretaker function as long as new election commissioners are unavailable. But there has been concern that their legitimacy may be questioned and petitions could be filed with the Constitutional Court to rule on the powers of election commissioners with only caretaker authority.

Deputy PM Wissanu Krea-ngam, the government’s legal adviser, said the issue would not affect the election because it was just a sub-roadmap planned under the main one and the extension of related procedures was still within the main timeframe.

The new round of EC candidates’ nominations and selections, he added, would yield the new EC members by May, one month before June, the final deadline before the 150-day election preparations kick-starts.

But if that was not the case, the present EC members could still hold the election, Wissanu said.

He downplayed a scenario that the second round could still fail to yield the new EC members, saying he did not want to presume that and provoke concern.

He also dismissed a suggestion that the new qualifications set for new EC members were too strict, saying that the matter had been addressed by the law and could not be changed.

The new charter imposed more stringent qualifications for members of other independent agencies and there had been no problems for them obtaining new members, he said.

Wissanu said it was not the selection committee’s fault because it merely picked the names from the list.

He also rejected speculation that the junta had interfered with the process, saying he personally did not believe that anyone would take orders from the junta as they held their voting in secrecy. He said the NLA members would have thought similarly about the EC candidates.

In Thursday’s closed-door meeting, the NLA voted overwhelmingly to reject all seven candidates put forward for the commission.

Another round in the selection process began immediately and by law will have to be completed within 90 days. The law requires that candidates receive at least 125 votes out of a possible 248 in the NLA to become election commissioners. The seven named yesterday fell short of that.

NLA president Pornpetch Wichitcholchai maintained that the initial candidates’ rejection would not affect the government’s election “roadmap”.

Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan said the NLA’s decision was entirely its own and the military junta had nothing to do with it.

“No, no, there was no order from the junta at all, none. The NLA just proceeded with the matter following its procedures,” said Prawit. He also said the rejection of EC candidates would not affect plans for local elections “for now”. The situation would be clearer by June, when political parties must be ready to contest the election, he said.

Assistant Professor Adisorn Naonont of Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University said the public had good reason to suspect there had been an order behind the scene because every single candidate had been turned down. The NLA should explain the reasons to make things clear.

The professor said the rejection, however, was unlikely to affect the roadmap.

He said it should be expected because the junta wanted to get people they are satisfied with since they are going to contest the election. Those writing the rules tend to write them in such a way as to advance their goals, he said.

Watana revealed about the new party leader on his Facebook post on Thursday with photos of him and fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra taken in Singapore.

Thaksin and his sister Yingluck, also a fugitive former PM, recently travelled to China, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Both former PMs met many Pheu Thai leaders and former MPs.

Party sources said they had discussed the party’s new leader with Thaksin.

They claimed Thaksin still supported Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan to be the new leader.

In his post, Watana – who said he often meets Thaksin abroad during festive seasons for blessing – denied the former PM’s influence in selecting the party leader, saying it was just a rumour and not true.

“Whoever will be picked to take that post must be a person who fought alongside the party and the people after the coup, otherwise party members will not accept [the candidate],” he posted.

“We have to wait until after April 1. There would be no surprises and its’ a familiar face,” he added.

April 1 is the starting date for existing political parties to begin communicating with party members about confirming their memberships.

Watana said his party had yet to choose a candidate to become the next prime minister. He named five senior leaders – Sudarat, Chaturon Chaisang, Bhokin Bhalakula, Chaikasem Nitisiri and Phongthep Thepkanjana – as the frontrunners.

Prajin, who is also justice minister, said Tapiola raised the issue, asking what would happen next.

“I informed him that the government does not yet know the details and that he will be briefed as soon as I have more information,” Prajin said.

There will be another meeting between Prachin and Tapiola at the Justice Ministry soon.

The NLA yesterday voted overwhelmingly in a closed-door meeting to turn down all of the proposed candidates. A new round of selection kicked off immediately and will have to be completed within 90 days, according to the law. Under the law, candidates who get a majority of NLA votes would become new EC members. But all seven candidates received less than the required minimum of 125 of 248 votes.

An NLA source said the rejection followed some legislators’ concern that the controversial initial selection process might have damaged public confidence in the new EC and more problems might ensue. The seven candidates would have filled vacancies in the Election Commission, the key agency responsible for holding elections. The move was viewed by some as another attempt by the junta to prolong its hold over power and delay the promised election.

NLA President Pornpetch Wichitchonlachai said on Thursday that the current EC members, acting as caretakers after being dismissed by the new EC organic law, were still working in strong spirits.

Asked if there had been government interference, Gen Prawit said, “No, no, there was no order from the junta at all, none. The NLA just proceeded with the matter following its procedures.”

Nor would the candidates’ rejection affect plans for local elections “for now”, he said.

The situation would be clearer by June, when political parties are supposed to be ready to contest the election, he said.

In a closed-door meeting yesterday (February 22), the NLA voted overwhelmingly to reject all seven candidates put forward for the commission.

Another round in the selection process began immediately and by law will have to be completed within 90 days.

The law requires that candidates receive at least 125 votes out of a possible 248 votes in the NLA to become election commissioners. The seven named yesterday fell short of that.

NLA president Pornpetch Wichitcholchai maintained that the initial candidates’ rejection would not affect the government’s election “roadmap”.

“I believe that Cobra Gold should look for ways to increase the complexity and scope of the exercise every year because we work closely with Thai allies in military space,” ADM Harry Harris, Commander to the US Pacific Command, told reporters at the Defence Ministry on Thursday.

“This year, we’ve increased the US level of participation in Cobra Gold by over 2,000 from last year, [affecting] the scale and type of individual exercises,” he continued. “What we’re doing in Cobra Gold [exercises] helps multiple countries to improve their readiness to fight.”

Due to close on Friday with Harris in attendance, this year’s Cobra kicked off last Tuesday in Chonburi with the principle participation of seven countries including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia. China and India have partial participation through the rescue and relief drills. Myanmar’s Tatmadaw military force was invited as an observer, prompting international criticism due to its role in the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya minority group in Rakhine State.

The 2018 exercise is also marked by the highest number of US troops participating in years, at 6,800 – nearly double last year’s 3,600.

Cobra Gold was scaled down after the 2014 military coup, but that has changed since Donald Trump took office last year. Harris made a high-profile attendance last year to demonstrate the Trump administration’s engagement with the Thai military government.

On Thursday, Harris met with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan and Supreme Commander General Thanchaiyan Srisuwan to “strengthen military-to-military ties to increase understanding and lessen chances of miscalculation”.

According to his testimony to the US Congress last April, Harris is convinced that the US should “engage more, not less, on Thai military leadership” and that “Thailand is committed to a return to democracy with national elections in 2018”.

“[This is] the best way for the US to promote security and healthy civil-military relations in Thailand,” he said before the House Armed Services Committee.

In the meeting on Thursday, Harris emphasised cooperation between the two nations on intelligence, anti-terrorism and support at the United Nations.

Referring to the promised-but-frequently-delayed election, Deputy Government Spokesperson Lt-General Werachon Sukondhapatipak said: “The US Commander also expressed an understanding of Thailand’s willingness to support the process to strong and sustainable democracy following the roadmap.”

Nominated as the next US ambassador to Australia by President Trump, Harris is known for his outspoken remarks on the US policy in Asia Pacific, and particularly on China’s roles.

Shortly before his visit to Thailand, Harris pointed voiced concern that China may “undermine the international rules-based order”, possibly referring to the contentious South China Sea issue.

While the US makes no national territorial claims regarding the sea, allowing China to have power over it would mean obstacles to freedom of navigation and overflights due to Beijing’s militarisation in the disputed areas.

The presence of the US in the Indo-Pacific matters in the final resolution of the South China Sea dispute. The US Army holds more than 1,500 military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region each year. Significant joint, combined and other smaller military exercises take place annually with treaty allies in Asia Pacific Japan, Korea, Australia, Thailand and the Philippines.

Concerns have been raised about the possibility of further election delays after the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) yesterday voted down the seven finalist candidates.

The originally scheduled November election date was likely to be delayed to early 2019 after the NLA recently passed the organic bill on MP elections. That bill contained a clause delaying its enforcement date by 90 days after it is published in the Royal Gazette. According to the 2017 charter, the next election must be held within 150 days after its enforcement.

Somchai urged the public not to be concerned by the rejection of proposed new commissioners because it will not affect the election.

However, he estimated it would take around six months before the new EC can perform their duties, Somchai said.

By law, it will take three months for a new round of candidate selection. It would then take another 45 days for the NLA to set up a committee and scrutinise candidates’ qualifications and work through the approval process, and an additional 15 days for the new commissioners to resign from their current posts as required under the EC law before submitting their names for Royal approval.

After those new commissioners were officially approved, the current EC members would leave office. The replacement of the EC members was required under the new organic law governing the agency.