Voter turnout in the Northeast could reach the 80-per-cent goal in the referendum in two weeks and favour approval of the draft charter despite a climate of fear and a lack of understanding about the draft, a source close to Election Commission (EC) offices in Isaan provinces has said.

Ahead of the August 7 referendum, the Isaan region is still relatively quiet, the source said. There had little public discussion and political commentary, he said, because people fear meetings could breach the junta’s ban on political gatherings.

However, Isaan people will cast their ballots because they want the referendum to “finish” the issue so the next general election can be held, Kongchai Chaikung, village head of Ban Nong Hu Ling in Udon Thani province and red-shirt supporter, said.

“They are looking forward to exercising their electoral rights in the next election and have their own representatives, rather than live under the coup,” Kongchai said. He said people had suffered from record low prices for farm products since the coup and hoped that their representatives and the next elected government can solve the economic slowdown.

People in Isaan believe that if the draft passes the referendum, the next election will be held by 2017 according to the junta’s road map, he added.

But the junta could prolong its tenure citing a need to edit or write a new draft without a fixed timetable, he said.

On the other hand, the junta has also intensified security measures, especially in Isaan, which is known to be a red-shirt stronghold, to ensure the referendum proceeds smoothly, a source close to the junta said.

In Isaan, the junta has tried to suppress red-shirt community leaders who canvassed for Pheu ThaiParty during recent elections, the source added. Tactics include frequent summons or reporting to security authorities.

“I used to be summoned monthly to report to security authorities in 2014 when the coup took place,” village head Kongchai said. “They asked me and other red-shirt community leaders to stop political activities. We have no power and have to obey.”

He said that since then he has coordinated with state administrators and district chiefs, passing their policies on to villagers. Kongchai has even become a so-called Kru Kor, or “Teacher C”, volunteer trained by district officials to knock on doors and explain the charter draft content in person.

The military and concerned security agencies are also visiting villages for different reasons including “support missions” related to the referendum, said Watcharin Sutawadee, an official in Muang Udon Thani district.

Thongmuan Pithaknok, a villager in Nakhon Ratchasima, said she and several of her neighbours believe the military will harm them if they do not vote in the referendum.

Despite a large turnout, the quality of voting in the referendum will be poor because voters do not understand the content of the draft, said Preecha Uitragool, Open Forum for Democracy Foundation coordinator for the Isaan region.

“Booklets and a full version of the draft are not available in some areas. [There are] no inclusive debates and no political talks. How will people make the right decision?” Preecha said.

Villagers had not received booklets or a full version of the draft as of three weeks prior to the referendum, said Krisada Monthathip, the head of Ban Sommai village in Udon Thani.

According to Nakhon Ratchasima provincial EC office director Thitiphol Todsarod, state agencies have recently made a great effort to encourage Isaan voters to cast ballots as the region has the largest number of eligible voters. He said in big provinces such as Nakhon Ratchasima and Buri Ram, referendum banners bedeck downtown areas while on the outskirts of remote provinces, monks, village chiefs and the state’s local networks urge people to vote in face-to-face discussions.

Provincial EC director Thitiphol said not all households had received the full draft because only 1.2 million copies had been printed. But he said all families would receive booklets spelling out the main ideas of the draft. Some 17 million copies of the summary booklets have been printed.

With more than Bt200 million budgeted for referendum PR activities, provincial EC offices will initiate a number of projects in collaboration with a massive state administration and security agency effort to get at least an 80-per-cent turnout nationwide, a source close to the EC said. In the 2007 referendum, 57 per cent of voters cast their ballots.

During its reign, the coup-installed government has attempted to set a foundation for cleaner politics and in the process cleanse politicians. The efforts include the controversial attitude-adjustment sessions from national to community level, which have been pursued since the early days of the 2014 power seizure .

They also include the crackdown on mafia figures or so-called influential people believed to be political canvassers, banning political activities and formulating political restructuring proposals in the constitution draft which will be voted on in two weeks.

Politics is in a tangled mess. The charter draft is seen by many as the holy grail. Its acceptance is vital to the political elite. But more than the content of the charter will be judged on referendum day. The regime, too, will be put to the test. And among the factors people take into consideration are how well the regime has done in tackling the problematic politicians after all this time.

Sirote Klampaiboon, an independent political scientist, said the NCPO had gone far beyond the people’s demands and had crossed the line.

“When the coup was staged, if there were any reason at all [to do so], it was that power corrupted. But now, the NCPO has come way farther than dealing with corruption. Rather than limiting the power, politicians are now being eradicated,” he said.

He explained that politics could be viewed as a free market where players competed to win votes. He said the new system provided by the draft constitution undermined that, disabling politicians from selling their policies to earn popularity with voters.

“Under the new structure, politicians can barely propose policies or direct the country. So, if you ask whether the public is satisfied by the NCPO’s work on this, I would have to say this is far beyond the satisfactory point,” the scholar said.

However, Sirote does not think this point alone matters in the referendum. In his opinion, how people vote will be based more on the overall picture they see.

“The referendum is more about whether or not people are satisfied with the NCPO in general. Surely if they did not like it, they will vote to punish it,” he said.

Sirote said he had observed that the number of dissidents had grown compared to two years ago when the regime came in. This was because of the NCPO’s poor performance, especially on the economy, and perhaps because of the personality or character of its leading figures as well.

Attasit Pankaew, a Thammasat University political science lecturer, believes the regime has done very little to improve politics despite its efforts and the public expectations.

There have not been any clear signs that the political landscape will change much after the NCPO steps down next year, he said, adding that voters have not received any signals that the behaviour of politicians has changed.

The lecturer explained that while actions had been taken against politicians, they appeared to have been used to only preserve the junta’s position.

“Some [politicians] might have been summoned for attitude adjustment. Many have been blocked from moving politically. But overall, all these are just for securing the regime’s immediate position and never for long-run politics,” Attasit said.

He predicted that the old political structure would be resurrected after the election. And the general public can feel this unchanged pulse, he added.

“I cannot tell whether or not the NCPO is disappointing people in this matter. But from how I see it, I think this is rather far from a referendum matter,” he said, implying that what he regards as the NCPO’s unsuccessful work in tackling the so-called corrupt politicians is not an influential factor for the charter vote.

Like Sirote, Attasit believed the referendum was about the big picture. He said that political hard cores most likely had already made up their minds on how they would vote. But those who are non-partisan may be looking at the NCPO’s image in general as well as the content of the charter.

“The swing voters will rely on public opinion leaders who are now highly limited by the authorities. And in the process, the swing voters could grow dissatisfied with the NCPO for seemingly being unfair to campaigners,” he explained.

Nipit Intrasombat, a veteran politician of the Democrat Party, said similarly that he did not feel the NCPO’s efforts had led to much impact, and agreed that voters would unlikely take that into account before deciding on the new charter.

The Democrat deputy leader said that because of the limited dissemination of information about the constitution, whether people vote on the referendum would be largely dependent on recommendations they received from someone they trusted, including ideology leaders and politicians.