Shell to sell stake in Malaysian plant to China private refiner

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/aec/Shell-to-sell-stake-in-Malaysian-plant-to-China-pr-30278341.html

BUSINESS

MON, 1 FEB, 2016 8:13 PM

SINGAPORE – Royal Dutch Shell said on Monday it had agreed to sell its shares in Shell Refining Company in Malaysia to a unit of a private Chinese refiner for $66.3 million.

It marks the first overseas refinery acquisition by a private Chinese refiner, shortly after Beijing allowed dozens of the country’s independent, small oil plants to import crude for the first time.

Shell will sell the 51 percent stake to Malaysia Hengyuan International Ltd, while the remaining shares are held by institutional and public shareholders, a Shell spokeswoman said.

Malaysia Hengyuan International Ltd is a unit of China’s Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company.

The transaction is expected to be completed in 2016, subject to regulatory approval, Shell said.

“It is (Malaysia Hengyuan’s) intention for Shell Refining Company to invest in the upgrades needed to meet the Euro 4M and Euro 5 requirements,” the company added, referring to cleaner fuel specifications.

Shell Malaysia Trading will continue to supply its retail and commercial customers in Malaysia and honour its existing commitments which include a long-term offtake deal from Shell Refining Company, it said.

Shell Refining Company is a key petroleum products supplier to Shell’s downstream businesses in Malaysia, its website says.

The oil refinery at Port Dickson has a capacity of 156,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) with 90 percent of its oil products consumed within Malaysia.

Shell has been exploring options for the company including the sale of the Port Dickson refinery or converting it to a storage terminal since at least January, 2015.

“The sale is consistent with Shell’s strategy to concentrate its global downstream footprint and businesses where it can be most competitive,” the company said in a statement.

Shell said earlier this month that it could further cut combined capital investments below the $33 billion targeted for 2016.

Its asset sales in the past two years have amounted to more than $20 billion, far outstripping its original plan to make $15 billion worth of divestments.

– Reuters

Southeast Asia gains quick mobility

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/aec/Southeast-Asia-gains-quick-mobility-30278494.html

BUSINESS

Simon Twiston Davies
China Daily   MON, 1 FEB, 2016 7:51 PM

BEIJING – Gathering of media, telecoms executives and analysts recently listened restlessly to yet another PowerPoint presentation from a “very senior” industry leader.

“Broadband has changed everything,” the energetic speaker told his audience in Hong Kong. “It’s about the way we talk to our wives, to our children, our friends, our colleagues, even to our government and to our banks.

“We now buy clothes and food online and sometimes pay for our entertainment online. I get my news and all of my favorite entertainment online. I can play games for fun and I can gamble with real money. I can even meet new friends half-a-world away from my home without an introduction. This has changed everything.”

But the grizzled salesman with 20 years of experience was not making his pitch to a meeting of US-educated bankers and Silicon Valley angel investors. He was speaking to a room full of impatient Southeast Asian entrepreneurs. Men, and a few women, who less than 10 years ago barely had access to electricity, let alone to high-end telephony or broadband video.

Yet, today each of the salesman’s listeners carried a digitally driven smart device, be it a phone or a tablet, a Samsung, an iPhone or a Sony. They were all broadband enabled.

But the problem for international salesmen pitching partnerships and investments for their high-end product lines is that their audiences in much of Southeast Asia are based in countries with an average per capita GDP of less than $3,000 per year, and outside of the conference rooms the average age of half the population is under 30 years old.

In fact, the scenario above is typical of the broadband communications environment in many of the fastest growing economies in the world, especially the emerging economies. That is why developing broadband services within a fast emerging economy is a complex “sell”.

However, the picture is changing fast.

In the past, the average subscriber to a local telephone company was just making local calls and sending texts. But users are now communicating via smartphones, doing everything from trawling through Facebook to playing complex online games to watching Hollywood blockbuster movies via the global Netflix platform or even making high-value banking transfers.

Until recently such revolutionary, often interactive, services were only available via expensive packages offered by cable or satellite pay TV platforms. Today and tomorrow’s world will be wireless, say the content owners, technology providers and their bankers.

Indeed, one-way communication is quickly losing its attraction for an important slice of Asia’s fast emerging markets, those under 25 years old (at least 30 per cent of the population in many countries) who are magnetically drawn to lifestyle, leisure and entertainment content.

Until recently, in Indonesia and the Philippines for example, the telecoms market had been in a downward spiral with half-a-dozen highly competitive telecom players only competing on price, offering ever lower data packages and little else in the way of choice.

Now amid consolidation in the market new investment has been occurring, especially via the prepaid SIM card segment which accounts for maybe 95 per cent of all connections, including the delivery of video.

In Thailand, a market with 85 million mobile subscribers (and where a third of the population is under 24 years old) almost 40 per cent of mobile subscribers access the likes of Facebook, WhatsApp, Google and YouTube along with mobile music and games every day

In the meantime, content providers, such as Alexandre Mueller, the managing director of the TV5 Asia Monde television network based in Hong Kong, have been betting on the development of broadband video services of all kinds across Asia via fixed line and mobile networks.

As part of Myanmar’s astonishing breakneck race to modernity, the vast majority of all new telephones sold are smartphones that deliver not only video entertainment, essential news and sports programming, but also education, health services and government messages.

While ongoing entrepreneurial high spirits will ultimately deliver their services to millions of customers in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, it is often governments that enable such market growth with licensing and funding for the creation of locally relevant, language-specific digital content backed by training for skilled labor, at least theoretically supported by new content protection laws to combat piracy.

Finally, across much of Southeast Asia there is a wrinkle that many consumers (and some of the more enlightened regulators) tend to like: In much of the region there are relatively “light touch” content controls on the Internet (and that includes broadband).

The Internet is about giving consumers what they want.

(Simon Twiston Davies is chief executive of SimonTD & Associates Asia.)

Carlsberg starts new line at Hue brewery

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BUSINESS

Viet Nam News   MON, 1 FEB, 2016 7:11 PM

THUA THIEN-HUE – Carlsberg Vietnam has put into operation its new canning line (number 4) at Hue Brewery, located in Phu Bai Industry Zone in Hue City.

The new canning line, imported from Germany for almost 6.4 million euro (US$6.93 million), can produce 60,000 cans per hour, 25 per cent faster than the previous production lines dating from 2011.

The company also said its Huda Gold product (a sub-premium brand of Huda) had won the silver medal at the 2015 World Beer Championships in the United States for the second time, with a score of 88/100. It was also marked ‘highly recommended’ by industry experts for its outstanding and consistent quality. Huda Gold first won this award for the first time in 2013.

“The inauguration of this new canning line is proof of Carlsberg’s continuous investment for its further sustainable growth in Viet Nam. I strongly believe the new canning line will significantly support us to continue brewing consistently high-quality Huda and Huda Gold products for consumers, as well as satisfy their increasing demands in the central region,” Tayfun Uner, CEO of Carlsberg Viet Nam, said.

Carlsberg Viet Nam has contributed more than 1.3 trillion dong ($58.5 million) in 2015.

Carlsberg is one of the first Danish multinational companies to enter Vietnam, making its first investment in 1993 with brands such as Carlsberg, Huda Gold, Huda and Halida.

In 2011, Thua Thien-Hue Province sold its 50 per cent stake (worth 1.875 trillion dong or US$93 million) in the Hue Brewery Company to Carlsberg, helping the Danish beer giant to acquire full ownership of the brewery.

Vietnam telecom firms all set for 4G race

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/aec/Vietnam-telecom-firms-all-set-for-4G-race-30278389.html

BUSINESS

Thien Ly
Viet Nam News   MON, 1 FEB, 2016 7:03 PM

HANOI – On January 18 Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications Group (VNPT) began commercial testing of its 4G, or fourth generation mobile telecom technology, services in HCM City and the Phu Quoc Island, with speeds reaching as high as 100 Mbps.

Vinaphone’s 3G subscribers could switch to 4G for free if within a week and use 4G at the same price as 3G for services like mobile TV, mobile broadcast, and video conferencing.

Earlier the telecom group Viettel had also got permission from the Ministry of Information and Communications to test its 4G services for seven months from last May in the southern province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau. Again it was found that 4G broadband was up to seven times faster than 3G.

It seems that a new race has begun among the biggest telecom players.

VNPT and Viettel were two out of five telecom firms issued licences by the ministry to test 4G technology last year, the others being CMC, FPT, and VTC.

To carry out their testing, both Viettel and VNPT built hundreds of 4G base transceiver stations.

VNPT has installed around 100 stations in HCM City and 50 in Phu Quoc.

It plans to expand its 4G services to Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Nam Dinh, Da Nang, Can Tho, Ca Mau, and Bac Lieu immediately upon getting a licence to provide 4G services.

Viettel said it has funds ready to begin 4G services at several locations in the country. For the trial, it installed nearly 200 stations in the cities of Vung Tau and Ba Ria and the rural Long Dien District.

Thus, of the country’s three biggest telecom firms, only Mobifone has yet to reveal its 4G plans.

But the company is unlikely to stand out the race. At a review meeting in the first half of last year, one of Mobifone’s most important demands from the ministry was permission to provide 4G services in the 1800 mHz band starting in early 2016.

The company also revealed plans to provide several mobile value-added services in 4G.

The goals of the major mobile players in this new race seem to be quite different: While Viettel targets expanding its market share at home and abroad, Mobifone wants to improve its image, service quality and profits.

VNPT general director Pham Duc Long said the company would introduce 4G services very quickly and apply the technology to various mobile services to provide customers with the best service quality.

Experts say 4G LTE [long term evolution] has been growing rapidly all over the world. With its advantages like high-speed internet access and the popularity of mobile phones and tablets, clearly 4G LTE will remain a key development trend in the telecom industry.

By the end of last year more than 300 telecom firms in over 100 countries were providing 4G services, 61 of them in Asia. In 2014 the world had around 450 million 4G subscribers, and the number is expected to have nearly doubled to 830 million by the end of last year.

The ministry had planned to launch 4G in the country last year, but delayed the issue of operational licences until this year for assessing the demand, technology, devices, and other conditions.

Analysts say it is right time for the country to deploy 4G since this technology has increased speed and security in mobile devices, brought in new business models and improved access to education and health.

In addition, local network operators now have the advantage of infrastructure provided by State-run companies.

But others say that the MoIT and service providers should make a careful study before introducing 4G services since 4G devices remain rather costly in Vietnam at VND4-20 million.

Besides demand, the two other decisive factors in the deployment of 4G are technology and ecosystem, they say, whereas the country’s infrastructure is not really ready yet.

They recommended that service providers should not be hasty and wait for consumers to use devices that are appropriate for 4G technology.

Property remains hot topic

Though there is no sign yet of the price “fever” that periodically marks the Vietnamese property market or a bubble, the market remains a hot topic for analysts and the media.

In discussions, most experts say the market has performed impressively in recent months, with figures showing that a strong recovery has set in after a long freeze. But they also warn there are distinct signs of risk, especially bank credit-related.

The Government seems to be in concurrence. In its Decision No.01/NQ-CP it seeks to severely curtail lending to high-risk sectors, in which it has included property.

State Bank of Vietnam deputy governor Nguyen Phuoc Thanh told a recent meeting with HCM City authorities that the central bank would restrict property-related loans this year, revealing that though a majority of loans went into funding production and business activities last year, many banks had lent too much to the real estate sector.

The housing market started recovering in late 2014. Last year the recovery was clearly reflected in the rising number of successful transactions and new projects, plunging inventories and easier credit.

According to a report by property services provider CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) Vietnam last year, in Ha Noi, housing transactions hit a record 21,100, surpassing the 2009 number.

High-end apartments accounted for 28 per cent compared to 21 per cent in 2009.

The market also witnessed a rise in the number of long-delayed projects that was revived.

Last year also saw a firm recovery in HCM City with numerous launches, positive sales volumes and higher prices, especially for mid- to high-end properties.

More than 41,900 units in 78 apartment projects were launched, mostly in the east (47 per cent) and south (27 per cent) of the city, an increase of 122 per cent over the previous year.

Overall, market sentiments remained positive through the year as 2015 ended with record annual sales – an estimated 36,160 units or up 98 per cent year-on-year.

The strong recovery is attributed to several factors, including the 0.63 per cent inflation last year, the lowest rate since 2001 and way below the average of 5 per cent in recent years.

The low inflation supported a growth in consumption and investment, including in housing, which was also helped by the low mortgage rates.

But the decisive factor was probably banks’ huge lending to both property developers and buyers.

In reality, the majority of property developers lack funds while the sector requires large medium- and long-term funds and there are few sources of funding for real estate firms.

Consequently, they rely completely on three main sources – owners’ equity, buyers’ money, and bank loans.

Besides, with most middle-class individual buyers dependent on bank loans to buy a house, lending by banks is always the key to the development of the property market.

As a result, credit to the housing sector grew 14.59 per cent last year and 80 per cent from three years ago to VND360 trillion, according to the State Bank of Vietnam.

In fact, of the total outstanding credit, loans for property development and mortgages account for 20 percent, and many banks are still expanding lending programmes targeted at real estate.

Indeed, overall credit growth reached 18 per cent last year, higher than the rate in 2011-14.

The experts express fears that the rapid growth of the housing market and credit poses threats of a bubble and a rise in bad debts just like a few years ago. While the real estate market recovered rather strongly last year and might continue to grow this year, the recovery is not really on a firm footing yet, they warn.

They also warn that the luxury apartment segment is experiencing oversupply.

But the supply of social housing and small and medium-sized apartments, which is where the real demand is, is limited, they say.

In HCM City, for instance, dozens of high-end apartment projects are being marketed despite the modest demand. On the other hand, only 6,000 apartments are available for low-income earners.

It seems that developers are focusing on high-end products with an eye on the expected foreign investment wave following the country’s accession to the TPP while ignoring low-income earners, who have huge demand for housing.

Many believe the TPP is not a magic wand that will change the market immediately.

Another big challenge facing the market is credit-related.

According to the HCMC Real Estate Association, secondary market investors now account for 15 per cent, up three-fold from 2014. They mainly focus on the high-end segment, buying in and selling quickly to profit from price differences.

The experts warn if the speculation is not checked, instability and a possible bubble loom.

But things are likely to remain stable this year if 50 per cent of the money flowing into the secondary market comes from speculators’own pocket, they say.

But 70-80 per cent of the money comes from banks and other sources of credit, often at very high interest rates, and this poses a big threat of bad debts.

Faced with this situation, the central bank has announced it will closely monitor property and long-term loans this year to safeguard the quality of credit growth.

The experts concur that it is important to tighten oversight to prevent overheating, which will cause a property bubble, especially by the banking sector over lending to the property sector.

VN targets high growth to 2020

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/aec/VN-targets-high-growth-to-2020-30278253.html

BUSINESS

Viet Nam News   MON, 1 FEB, 2016 4:25 PM

HANOI – Vietnam aims to achieve annual average economic growth of 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent through 2020, striving to turn itself into an advanced industrial country soon, according to the Resolution of the 12th National Party’s Congress.

The Resolution, approved and made public at the end of the nine-day long National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), mapped out several targets in terms of socioeconomic development as well as environmental protection that will set the specific working checklist for the new Party and Government leaders in the next five years.

According to the Resolution, GDP per capita was expected to rise to $3,500 by 2020 from $2,019 in 2015.

The Party also set the task to keep the unemployment rate in urban areas below 4 per cent while 80 per cent of the population will be covered by health insurance – an indication that the ultimate target of making health insurance universal is unlikely to be achieved soon.

About 95 per cent of urban residents and 90 per cent of those living in the countryside will have access to clean and hygienic water, according to the Resolution.

Apart from those specific target figures, the Resolution also listed six key missions to be carried out in the upcoming time, one of which is a refinement of the Party in order to stop the regression of the political ideology, morals and lifestyle of the 4.5 million Party members.

Further works will be done to build a lean and efficient political system as well as to bolster the fight against corruption, state budget waste and bureaucracy.

Preserving the country’s territorial integrity was also one of the key missions for the political system to uphold especially in the context of Vietnam being one of the main parties involved in the simmering East Sea dispute.

Though firmly safeguarding the homeland, according to the Resolution, Vietnam at the same time strives to maintain an environment of peace and stability favourable to development as well as to further deepen relationships with other countries for a fruitful international integration.

Meanwhile, labour productivity, the economy’s competitiveness and economic growth quality were three issues that received a call for stronger measures to accelerate the country’s economy.

The productivity of Vietnamese workers were known to rest in the bottom half of the Asean bloc’s, raising concerns among experts of the country’s competitiveness especially as Vietnam is a member of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) starting this year and has also signed several international trade agreements including the historic Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

M’sia starts foreign labour levy today

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/aec/Msia-starts-foreign-labour-levy-today-30278240.html

BUSINESS

The Star   MON, 1 FEB, 2016 12:21 PM

SIBU – The levy for foreign workers has been increased, in some cases to double what employers are paying.

Effective today, those in the manu­facturing and construction sectors will have to pay 2,500 ringgit, up from 1,250 ringgit.

Those in the services sector will be levied the same amount, compared to the 1,850 ringgitpreviously.

Foreign workers in the plantation and agriculture sectors will have to pay a levy of 1,500 ringgit.

The levy for foreign domestic wor­kers remains at 410 ringgit.

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who announced this yesterday, said the revised levy would bring an additional revenue of 2.5 billion to the government’s coffers.

The new rates are in line with the recalibrated Budget announced by the Prime Minister last week, when he said that foreign workers would be categorised under two main tiers from the previous six.

Dr Ahmad Zahid said the restructuring of the levy was done as the 2.135 million registered foreign workers enjoyed many benefits meant for Malaysians, such as food subsidy and other services.

“The restructuring of the levy is also for us to have better control and management of foreign workers in the country,” he told a press conference during his visit to University College of Technology Sarawak yesterday.

Dr Ahmad Zahid said the new rates were in line with the national economic scenario and also that at international level.

“We do acknowledge the vital role they (foreign workers) play in nation-building and our economy,” he said.

On the Sarawak Barisan Nasional’s performance in the coming state election, he said the popularity of Chief Minister Tan Sri Adenan Satem should be translated into votes.

“Sarawakians have to take this opportunity to be together in fully supporting the leadership of Adenan because he is not only providing continuity of good leadership from the previous CM, he is also very popular in his approach in addressing issues in relation to the needs of Sarawakians,” he added.

Dr Ahmad Zahid also came to the defence of Adenan for proposing the dates for nomination and polling.

“He knows the decision to fix these dates is the prerogative of the Election Commission. He was only making the proposal as the final decision is with the EC,” he explained.

KOICA conducts hydropower pre-feasibility study in Laos

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BUSINESS

Vientiane Times   MON, 1 FEB, 2016 11:38 AM
Experts from both countries discussed their plans, budget estimation, scope of work, and the feasibility of the project in order to produce successful outcomes of the study.

Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to Laos, Kim Soo-Gwon, said “Given that Laos has plenty of water resources which can be developed as hydropower, there is a great potential for small hydropower projects to meet the rapidly increasing demand for electricity as well as to secure an energy supply across the country.”

One of the Korean experts added “Compared to large hydropower, small hydropower is likely to be more environmentally friendly for power supply to isolated villages, farmers’ irrigation, and water supply to local communities. In this way, the successful implementation of the project will contribute to sustainable development throughout the country.”

If the feasibility of the project is successfully examined through this preliminary survey, it is expected that KOICA would support the project with US$12.85 million from 2017 to 2020.

Malaysia-China trade remains strong, says special envoy

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/aec/Malaysia-China-trade-remains-strong-says-special-e-30278230.html

BUSINESS

Allison Lai
The Star   SUN, 31 JAN, 2016 10:37

KLANG – Malaysia maintained strong financial and commercial cooperation with China despite a slowdown, said Ong Ka Ting.

The Prime Minister’s Special Envoy to China said Malaysia remained China’s largest trading partner inAsean with bilateral trade totalling US$97.35bil last year.

’’The trade volume for both 2013 and 2014 surpassed the US$100bil mark.

’’The achievement for 2015, although slightly less, is still a strong figure considering the strengthening of the US dollar,’’ he said after opening a Chinese New Year calligraphy and painting event at the Klang Hokkien Association here Sunday.

The event was held to achieve a 500ft-long calligraphy piece to be listed in the Malaysia Book of Records.

Present was Ong’s wife Puan Sri Wendy Chong Siew Mei, an avid calligrapher, who penned the word of ’monkey’ in Chinese on the white scroll.

Ong noted that small and medium enterprises (SMEs), small and medium industries (SMIs), the service sector and financial cooperation between Malaysia and China were full of potential and could still be further strengthened and expanded.

“’We still need to work hard, not only to maintain but boost our future trade figures with China.

“As the festive season draws near, the Chinese community has been a very important force in driving the SMEs and SMIs forward and contributed to Malaysia-China trade.

“We should continue to work hard to contribute. The country can still prosper as a whole if the people work hard,’’ he said, adding that Malaysians need to be resilient to withstand a challenging year ahead.

Ong called on Malaysians to emulate the spirit of the legendary Monkey God in the famous Journey to the West saga.

’’The sun wu kong is always efficient, agile, righteous, helpful to the needy and will always stand up against the evil power.

“We should always make ourselves a positive and constructive force in society,’’ he said.

Ong also noted that the Monkey God’s negative values – his impulsive actions, impatience manner and quick nature – should be avoided.

“We should always look at ourselves and review our weaknesses,’’ he added.

Indonesia a potential hub for outsourcing: GSLI

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/aec/Indonesia-a-potential-hub-for-outsourcing-GSLI-30278177.html

BUSINESS

Anton Hermansyah
The Jakarta Post   SUN, 31 JAN, 2016 1:31 PM

JAKARTA – In a global survey conducted by consulting firm A.T. Kearney, Indonesia ranked number five in the attractiveness of its offshore business potential behind India, China, Malaysia and Brazil.

The Global Service Location Index (GSLI) measures financial attractiveness, people skills, availability and business environment. The index brought together potential fundamentals for delivering information technology, business outsourcing processes and voice services not in actual market conditions.

“Despite very strong fundamentals, a large pool of talent and an attractive financial profile, Indonesia is not a well-known destination for offshore services,” A.T. Kearney’s partner Arjun Sethi said Friday.

In fact, among South East Asian countries, the Philippines leads in the global outsourcing business. After first providing call center services, Philippines moved on to IT services. Cities like Manila, Cebu and Davao have built up reputations as major outsourcing destinations along with Bangalore, Mumbai and Delhi in India.

In the GSLI 2016, which primarily measures potential power, the Philippines ranked number seven, behind Indonesia and Thailand. But India remained the undisputed champion. The availability of skilled labor and infrastructure for new cities were the keys to India winning the competition.

The GSLI has been existed since 2009. The index surveys 55 countries and uses 38 measurements grouped into three overarching categories. The first is financial attractiveness, constituting 40 per cent of the overall score. The second is skills and availability, which constitutes 30 per cent of the score. The third category is business environment, amounting to 30 per cent of the score.

Faster economic growth seen this year

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BUSINESS

Ben O. de Vera
Philippine Daily Inquirer   SUN, 31 JAN, 2016 1:29 PM

MANILA – The economy is expected to grow faster this year than the 5.8-per cent expansion posted in 2015 mainly on the back of election spending boost.

The Department of Finance’s chief economist, meanwhile, on Friday urged additional investments in public infrastructure to support robust growth.

“To sustain economic growth, more investment in infrastructure such as in power and transportation should be mobilized,” Finance Undersecretary Gil S. Beltran said in an economic bulletin.

Financial institutions were also more bullish this year as the country holds presidential elections this coming May.

“For 2016, we reiterate our GDP [gross domestic product] growth forecast of 6.5 per cent, which reflects our view that the elections in May will likely further boost already healthy domestic demand, rather than act as a headwind. We expect more fiscal support to growth from further progress on the implementation of infrastructure projects, which should also crowd in private investment and FDI [foreign direct investment],” Japanese financial giant Nomura said in a Jan. 28 note.

For Metrobank Research, growth in 2016 is expected at 6.3 per cent, research analyst Pauline May Ann E. Revillas said in a note on Jan. 28.

“Government spending growth is seen to be sustained until at least the first half as the government front-loads its budget expenditures. Consumption spending will remain robust amid the still soft commodity prices, low interest rates and solid remittance inflows. Election spending is expected to support key services such as transportation, communication and storage, business activities, and retail trade. A slight pickup in manufacturing is also seen as exports of electronics slightly improve,” Revillas explained.

However, the agriculture sector is seen remaining “weak” amid the onslaught of the dry spell due to the El Niño weather phenomenon during the first semester, she said.

For ING Bank Manila senior economist Joey Cuyegkeng, the economy would grow 6.2 per cent this year on the back of “support coming from government infrastructure spending as well as election spending,” noting that the Aquino administration has already front-loaded spending ahead of the March 25 start of the election ban on the rollout of government projects.

Citi Research said it raised its 2016 GDP growth forecast to 5.4 per cent from 5.1 per cent previously, although robust election spending could not sustain strong economic expansion by the second half. “Amid the global economic slowdown and market volatility, the post-election investment momentum should slow down,” Citi Research economist Jun Trinidad said in a Jan. 28 note.

“Learning curve effect as the new government takes over weighs on fiscal spending while the business community awaits the new policy agenda. From first-quarter growth of 7.4 per cent year-on-year, we expect domestic demand to ease to sub-5 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter but with consumption in the driver seat,” Trinidad explained.

Also, “lacking meaningful 2016 export gains restrain prospects” for faster economic growth this year, he added.