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Covid, stronger baht pull Thailand down in world food market

EconFeb 19. 2021

By The Nation

Thailand has dropped to the 13th place globally in food exports owing to dropping demand due to the pandemic, appreciation of the baht, shortage of shipping containers and rising cost of logistics.

Anong Paijitprapapon, president of the National Food Institute, said on Thursday that Thailand’s food manufacturing sector contracted 6.5 per cent in 2020 due to a drop in both local consumption and exports. Also contributing to this drop was a shortage in raw materials, especially cassava, sugar and pineapple.

The export of food products last year stood at Bt980.7 billion, or 4.1 per cent less compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, Thailand’s global market share dropped 2.32 per cent from 2.49 per cent in 2019, which pulled it down in global ranking from 11 to 13.

Last year, export to just three markets moved in a positive territory, namely China accounting for Bt179.76 billion, the United States Bt118.71 billion and Oceania Bt33.05 billion.

The Thai food industry is highly dependent on export markets, especially China and CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam), which account for 32.2 per cent of Thai exports, rising 12.1 per cent over the past decade. Export from Thailand to China and CLMV countries has risen at an average of 19.6 and 8.9 per cent respectively.

In comparison, Thailand is depending less on developed countries such as Japan, US, the European Union and United Kingdom. These four markets now account for 32.4 per cent of Thai exports, down from 42.4 per cent 10 years ago.

Thailand’s export to the EU and the UK has dropped at an average of 3.1 per cent and 0.9 per cent per year respectively, while to Japan and the US, it has risen marginally by 1.4 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

Apart from the pandemic, Thailand is also suffering from currency appreciation, shortage of shipping containers and rising cost of logistics.

In 2020, the export of processed food products came in at Bt581.53 billion, down by 5.6 per cent compared to the previous year, while the export of raw agricultural products stood at Bt399.15 billion, dropping 2 per cent from the previous year.

As for Thai food exports in 2021, it is projected to come in at Bt1.05 trillion, marking a rise of 7.1 per cent mainly due to a rise in demand once economies start recovering, rising food prices and measures to prevent contamination, which will boost confidence in Thai products.

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SET down 0.26% despite Fed news

EconFeb 18. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,511.03 on Thursday, down 3.88 points or 0.26 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt97.63 billion with an index high of 1,524.11 and a low of 1,510.77.

In the morning session, a Krungsri Securities analyst expected the day’s index to rebound to between 1,520 and 1,525 points after the US Federal Reserve opted to maintain its quantitative easing policy and the oil price rose after Texas refineries were shut down by snowstorms.

“However, the SET will be under pressure due to its tight valuation,” he predicted.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were STA, OR, STGT, PTG, PTT, CBG, KBANK, CPF, BBL and SAWAD.

As of 4.30pm, the price of oil rose by US$0.23 or 0.38 per cent to $61.37 per barrel, while gold rose by $13.50 or 0.76 per cent to $1,786.30 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 30,236.09, down 56.10 points or 0.19 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,675.36, up 20.27 points or 0.55 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 15,767.44, down 194.81 points or 1.22 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 30,595.27, down 489.67 points or 1.58 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI closed at 3,086.66, down 47.07 points or 1.50 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 16,424.51, up 62.22 points or 0.38 per cent.

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SET under pressure, but index expected to rebound

EconFeb 18. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 5.13 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 1,520.04 in the morning session on Thursday.

A Krungsri Securities analyst expected the index to rebound to between 1,520 and 1,525 points after the US Federal Reserve decided to continue using quantitative easing to stimulate the economy and as the price of oil increased due to a shutdown of refineries in Texas as snow storms enveloped the state in an icy grip.

“However, the SET will be under pressure due to its tight valuation,” he predicted.

He recommended investors buy:

▪︎ IVL, SPRC, ESSO, VNT, CBG, ROJNA, TVO, HTC, CPF, RCL, PSL, SYNEX, COM7, XO, WICE, JMT, JMART, SINGER, SAWAD, AH, SAT, BH and CHG, whose fourth-quarter turnover is expected to improve.

▪︎ PSL, TTA and RCL, which would benefit from a rise in the freight rate.

The SET Index closed at 1,514.91 on Wednesday, down 8.20 points, or 0.54 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt96.45 billion, with an index high of 1,528.58 points and a low of 1,513.96.

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Gold price drops amid strong US economic data

EconFeb 18. 2021

By The Nation

The price of gold fell by Bt50 per baht weight in morning trade on Thursday, the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.30am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,250 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,350, while gold ornaments cost Bt24,801.76 and Bt25,850, respectively.

At close on Wednesday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,300 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,400, while gold ornaments cost Bt24,847.24 and Bt25,900, respectively.

The spot gold price moved to US$1,782 (Bt53,491) per ounce after falling by $26.20 to $1,772.80 on Wednesday due to a rising US Treasury yield, a strengthening dollar and strong US economic data. The price had fallen for four consecutive days.

The Hong Kong gold price meanwhile dropped by HK$70 to $16,450 (Bt63,690) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

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Stocks finish mixed; yields drop from year highs

EconFeb 18. 2021

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Kamaron Leach, Claire Ballentine

U.S. stocks were mixed and Treasury yields retreated from a one-year high as investors weighed the outlook for economic growth and inflation.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed as high as 1.33% before paring its increase. The S&P 500 Index finished little changed, while the Nasdaq Composite slumped. Chevron Corp. led energy shares higher after Berkshire Hathaway Inc. revealed an increased stake. The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a record high. Companies that may have difficulty justifying stretched valuations if rising inflation dents profits bore the brunt of selling — highflying tech shares among them.

“At some point higher yields could hurt, but I don’t think we’re there just yet,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for the U.S. SPDR exchange-traded fund business at State Street Global Advisors. “That’s going to continue to be a big underlying theme for markets.”

Federal Reserve officials did not see the conditions for reducing their massive asset-purchase program being met for “some time” at their January policy meeting, a record of the gathering released Wednesday showed.

The recent dramatic rise in bond yields has investors wondering afresh how high they can climb before spoiling the risk rally. That adds to concerns that speculative froth may be setting equities up for a fall.

“It’s quite possible that for a while interest rates could rise and yet stock prices could still rise some more because of the tail winds from the fiscal stimulus, from folks who save money, and people wanting to get out,” said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments. “So the tricky part is going to be figuring what level of interest rates will be supportive of stock prices either hanging in there and going higher or what level of inflation or interest rates will then start to become a worry for the market in terms of valuation.”

Elsewhere, oil rose for a third session as an ongoing energy crisis in the U.S. pummeled domestic crude output. The deep freeze causing historic power outages across the central U.S. has led oil output in the country to plunge by a third.

Bitcoin jumped past $52,000 for the first time. China remains shut for a week-long holiday and will reopen Thursday.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index was little changed at 3,931.43 as of 4:01 p.m. New York time.

The Dow Jones industrial average increased 0.3% to 31,614.27, the highest on record with the biggest climb in more than a week.

The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 0.6% to 13,965.50, the lowest in more than a week on the largest decrease in almost three weeks.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank 0.7% to 416.10, the biggest dip in almost three weeks.

The MSCI All-Country World Index sank 0.3% to 682.92, the largest decrease in almost three weeks.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.3% to 1,129.46, the highest in more than a week.

The euro decreased 0.5% to $1.2042, the weakest in almost two weeks on the largest dip in almost two weeks.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.2% to 105.88 per dollar, the first advance in more than a week.

The British pound sank 0.3% to $1.3863, the largest decrease in more than two weeks.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell three basis points to 1.28%, the biggest fall in a week.

Germany’s 10-year yield dipped two basis points to -0.37%.

Britain’s 10-year yield sank five basis points to 0.572%, the biggest tumble in almost 10 weeks.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1.9% to $61.22 a barrel, the highest in more than two years.

Gold depreciated 1.1% to $1,775.52 an ounce, reaching the weakest in almost eight months on its fifth consecutive decline.

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SET down 0.5% as tight valuation, OR ruling takes toll

EconFeb 17. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,514.91 on Wednesday, down 8.20 points or 0.54 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt96.45 billion with an index high of 1,528.58 and a low of 1,513.96.

In the morning session, a Krungsri Securities analyst expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,515 and 1,520 points amid the rising oil price after refineries in Texas shut due to snow storms, and mass buy-ups of shares whose fourth-quarter performance was expected to improve.

The analyst advised investors to beware of the SET’s tight valuation and mass sell-offs of PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR) shares after it was disqualified from listing on the FTSE.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were OR, EA, KBANK, STGT, STA, GPSC, PTT, TQM, PTTGC and CBG.

As of 4.30pm, the price of oil rose by US$0.28 or 0.47 per cent to $60.33 per barrel, while gold dropped by $13.80 or 0.77 per cent to $1,785.20 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 30,292.19, down 175.56 points or 0.58 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 31,084.94, up 338.28 points or 1.10 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI closed at 3,133.73, down 29.52 points or 0.93 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 16,362.29, up 559.89 points or 3.54 per cent.

Stock markets in mainland China were closed for Lunar New Year.

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SET Index up slightly, expected to fluctuate

EconFeb 17. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 0.22 points, or 0.01 per cent, to 1,523.33 in the morning session on Wednesday.

A Krungsri Securities analyst expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,515 and 1,520 points amid a rising oil price after refineries in Texas shut due to extreme weather, and mass buy-ups of shares whose fourth-quarter performance was expected to improve.

The analyst advised investors to beware of SET’s tight valuation and mass sell-offs of PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR) shares after it was disqualified from listing on the FTSE.

He recommended investors buy:

▪︎ IVL, SPRC, ESSO, VNT, CBG, ROJNA, TVO, HTC, CPF, RCL, PSL, SYNEX, COM7, XO, WICE, JMT, JMART, SINGER, SAWAD, AH, SAT, BH and CHG, whose fourth-quarter turnover is expected to improve.

▪︎ PSL, TTA and RCL, which would benefit from a rise in the freight rate.

The SET Index closed at 1,523.11 on Tuesday, up 0.39 points, or 0.03 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt87.87 billion, with an index high of 1,531.29 points and a low of 1,522.41.

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Gold price dives in opening trade

EconFeb 17. 2021

By The Nation

The price of gold slumped by Bt300 per baht weight in morning trade on Wednesday, the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.29am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,400 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,500, while gold ornaments cost Bt24,938.20 and Bt26,000, respectively.

At close on Tuesday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,700 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,800, while gold ornaments cost Bt25,241.40 and Bt26,300, respectively.

The spot gold price moved to US$1,793 (Bt53,757) per ounce after falling by $24.20 to $1,799 on Tuesday due to a rising US Treasury yield and a strengthening dollar. Also, gold was pressured by the rise in US manufacturing data in seven months.

The Hong Kong gold price meanwhile dropped by HK$290 to $16,540 (Bt63,963) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

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U.S. bond yields touch one-year high

EconFeb 17. 2021

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Kamaron Leach, Andreea Papuc

U.S. bond yields surged to the highest in a year while American stocks climbed to records as optimism over the economic recovery continued to ripple through markets.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note increased as much as nine basis points to 1.30%, the highest since February 2020. Global bonds extended the worst start to a year since 2013.

The S&P 500, the Nasdaq composite and the Dow Jones industrial average indexes all set records Tuesday, before easing from the highs. The MSCI benchmark for emerging and developed market stocks snapped an 11-session winning streak.

The reflation trade is powering assets tied to economic growth and price pressure, including commodities and cyclical stocks. At the same time, investors are riding a wave of speculative euphoria from penny stocks to bitcoin amid abundant policy support.

“We certainly have data that suggests that being more glass half full than glass half empty remains the right posture,” said Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “People are looking at parts of the world as well as sectors that have been underperforming and saying, ‘Hey this is maybe the next part of the market that heads higher.’ “

– – –

Here’s a look at how it’s playing out in global markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 fell less than 0.1% as of 4:01 p.m. in New York. It has added 4.7% in 2021. The Russell 2000, which has surged 15% this year, edged lower.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average extended its advance past the 30,000 level. European markets were mostly little changed after a rally on Monday.

Commodities

Brent oil is holding near a 13-month high after freezing temperatures hindered the Texas power system and disrupted crude production. Nearly 5 million people across the U.S. were plunged into darkness as homes and businesses lost power. Natural gas futures for March delivery surged as much as 10%.

In metals, copper climbed to the highest since 2012 and tin extended a dramatic surge. Citigroup forecasts that copper prices will rally to $10,000 a ton in six to 12 months on a better-than-expected recovery in demand, most notably outside China.

Bonds

Global debt markets are extending a sell-off as investors shift money to riskier assets. German bunds and U.K. gilts saw benchmark yields rise. The Treasury 30-year equivalent pushed above 2%.

Currencies

The dollar strengthened against most of its major peers. The pound edged higher to $1.3911.

bitcoin crossed a new milestone, surpassing $50,000 as the blistering rally continues to captivate investors. Tesla’s announcement that it added $1.5 billion in bitcoin to its balance sheet was the most visible recent catalyst. Companies such as Mastercard and Bank of New York Mellon have also moved to make it easier for customers to use cryptocurrencies.

– – –

Here are some key events coming up:

– Earnings roll on with companies including, Daimler, Credit Suisse, Deere, Danone and Nestle.

– Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the January meeting are due Wednesday.

– U.S. retail sales figures come Wednesday.