The centre adjusted down their April export forecast of 2.7 per cent growth, to a new negative forecast of 1.6 per cent contraction.

The EIC also adjusted down their GDP forecast from 3.6 per cent made in April to 3.3 per cent.

The uncertainty from the trade war and the slowdown in the global economy has damaged investment sentiment in the country, said Yunyong Thaicharoen, first executive vice president and head of the EIC.

This has led the centre to predict that private investment will slow down in the second half of 2019.

Public investment in infrastructure projects is still held by the EIC as a key driver of growth and is expected to grow by 7 per cent in 2019.

However, due to budget delays, investment in new projects toward the end of the year may face delays, Yunyong said. The slow pace of post-election Cabinet formation has delayed budget creation.

With regard to monetary policy, the EIC predicted that the central bank will hold the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, with the likelihood to lower rates by 0.25 per cent if Thailand’s economy slows down at a faster pace than expected.

Manit Techa-apichoke, president of BMA-owned Krungthep Thanakhom Co Ltd, said the state firm was empowered by Article 44 of the interim charter to conduct negotiations with the BTS over the Bt100 billion debt transfer and concession extension.

Manit said the negotiation should be completed in about two months.

If the BTS agrees to shoulder the cost of construction of the two extended routes plus accrued interest worth Bt100 billion, the BMA will grant a new 30-year concession for the main routes and all extended routes. The debt covers the construction cost of the northern route of Morchit-Saphan Mai-Khukot extension and the southern route or Bearing-Samut Prakan extension.

If negotiations are successful, the concession for the main routes from Mor Chit to On Nuj and the National Stadium to Tak Sin Bridge, which will end in 2029, will be extended to 2059, Manit said.

And the contract for hiring the BTS to operate two extended routes from On Nuj to Bearing and from Taksin Bridge to Bang Wa, which will expire in 2042, will also be extended to 2059, Manit said. The BMA has paid for the construction cost of these two routes and hired the BTS to operate the extended routes.

The concession for operating the Bearing-Samut Prakan extension and Morchit-Saphan Mai-Khukot extension will also run to 2059, he added.

Manit said the BTS would be asked to shoulder the cost of construction of the Morchit-Saphan Mai-Khukot route and Bearing-Samut Prakan route, which have been built by the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA). The MRTA has built the elevated railways for the two routes and will require the BMA to pay for the construction cost while the BMA will in turn ask the BTS to shoulder the cost.

On Monday, Manit and Surachet Laopoolsuk, deputy governor of MRTA, witnessed the test-run of a BTS Skytrain for one station on the extended Morchit-Saphan Mai-Khukot route. The test-run ended at the Lat Phrao Intersection station.

Surachet said the MRTA has finished the construction of the elevated railway and that Krungthep Thanakhom and BTS started installing the electric and train controls system in March.

Surachet said the Skytrain service to the Lat Prao Intersection service would be available from August 11 in a free test-run period and it will be extended to the Kasetsat University Intersection in December. The entire route service to Khukot will be operational in late 2020, he added.

Surachet said before the BMA could provide the test-run service to the Lat Phrao Intersection, it must first sign a memorandum of understanding to take up the cost of construction of the Morchit-Khukot route for Bt26 billion. The MRTA will ask its board on July 25 to approve the debt transfer to the BMA, Surachet added.

Manit said the BMA would also ask BTS to limit the fare to Bt65 and the BMA would find an appropriate model to subsidise the fare for the BTS.

Meanwhile, Surapong Laoha-Unya, BTS executive director, said it would be difficult to accept the BMA’s demand for the BTS to shoulder the construction cost and at the same time limit the ceiling of the fare of the entire route at Bt65 without a state subsidy.

Fintech would enable the 40 per cent of unbanked or underserved Thais to get access to formal financial and banking services, according to panellists at the “Thailand Economic Monitor, Harnessing Fintech for Financial Inclusion” seminar. The unbanked segment in Thailand is currently prey to loan sharks in an informal lending sector that is driving a crisis in household debt, which has reached an alarmingly high level of 78 per cent of GDP.
Somprawin Manprasert, head of Krungsri Research, said that fintech was helping financial institutes offer effective banking services in the digital era. As the world moves to online platforms, banks are following suit. Banking services will be transformed by innovations, including information-based lending ecosystems incorporating existing and new data and digital footprint; both hard and soft infrastructure – such as regulation and trust; online platforms; and products personalised according to risks, returns and profiles of individual customers.
“Financial institutes and banks will become ‘data companies’,” said Somprawin.
The future will also bring more partnerships both among banks and between banks and non-banks. Banking will be the transaction-facilitator for consumers.
“Fintech helps identify consumers and also helps banks to access information, both existing and new data, at lower cost. With banks better able to ‘see’ consumers’ information, they can expand services to unbanked and underserved people,” said Somprawin.
Pipavin Sodprasert, Thailand country manager for Alibaba’s Ant Financial (Alipay), said that digital technology is spreading financial services in three ways. It is connecting people to financial institutes, complementing existing services, and catalysing banking outreach to the financially underserved. Ant Financial sees itself as a catalyst, with a mission to reach out to the globe’s 1.7 billion unbanked adults. The company is focusing on blockchain as the cornerstone of secure digital banking of the future.
“Around 40 per cent of our staff are focusing on security, “said Pipavin.
Thammarak Moenjak, director at the Bank of Thailand’s Financial Institutions Strategy Department, agreed that fintech helps people access informal financial services at lower cost and reduced risk. Fintech aids productivity, inclusivity and immunity of financial and banking services, he added.
The seminar panel also unveiled other financial innovations, such as virtual banking in Hong Kong and evolving collaborations between banks and partners to reach new consumers. Panellists said the challenge now would be to facilitate sharing of payments and other data across the various models of fintech, adding that technology infrastructure was an important factor in achieving success here.

She added that the central banks of many other countries were also keeping a close watch on this currency’s development due to concerns about the possible risk to investors.
Facebook is expected to officially launch Libra early next year.
Praoporn said the new currency may fall under the Digital Asset Law, which means its trading in Thailand will have to be approved by the SEC. However, as it may not be regulated under this law if it is used for the payment of goods and services, the central bank and SEC are looking for ways to control the currency if it is used for payments.
She added that a new law may have to be put in place before Libra can be used.
SEC consultant Bhume Bhumiratana said it was time for either the central bank or the Finance Ministry to launch a baht-backed digital currency to protect Thailand from a possible adverse impact from other digital currencies. However, this may not be easily done, because Thailand will have to amend several laws and regulations to support the launch of a local digital currency.

Completion of the linkage is expected to help reduce Thailand’s logistics cost from 13.8 per cent of GDP to 12 per cent by 2021.
Krisda Chinavicharana, Director-General, said the department is working with its counterparts in Laos, Philippines and Indonesia on the link-up of international import and export data via the electronic system.
He expects the programme will be completed this year, enabling connection between all memebers in the trade bloc.
The department plans to extend the linkage to China and South Korea in the near future.

In a deal with the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau (TCEB), the “Business Meets Beach” initiative will see the association’s 70 member-hotels join forces to promote Phuket as the premier destination for the MICE industry.

“With its rare combination of stunning scenery and outstanding indoor and al-fresco MICE venues, Phuket has everything that professional planners could wish for,” said association president Anthony Lark.

“But the island is more than simply a venue for meetings and events. It is a giant canvas on which guests can paint their own stories, themed on Phuket’s rich local culture and heritage. This is what makes our island truly special.”

Part of the campaign is the “Stay Free” initiative, in which 19 hotels will offer guests a third night free, plus a complimentary cocktail reception. It’s on offer through October for groups of 40 delegates or more.

Phuket hoteliers join hands to launch the Business Meets Beach campaign to drive MICE business to the island

Cooperative marketing activities, social-media updates and familiarisation trips for the trade and media are being planned for this year and next.

Building on the success of destination promotions undertaken by the TCEB and Tourism Authority, the overall aim of the campaign is to double MICE expenditures by 2020 while maximising the benefits to association members and the Phuket economy.

The 19 hotels participating in the Stay Free promotion are the Angsana Laguna Phuket, Cape Sienna Hotel & Villas, COMO Point Yamu, Dewa Phuket Resort, Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket, Hilton Phuket Arcadia Resort & Spa, Le Meridien Phuket Beach Resort, Movenpick Resort & Spa Karon Beach Phuket, Novotel Phuket Kamala Beach, Outrigger Laguna Phuket Beach Resort, Phuket Marriott Resort and Spa, Nai Yang Beach, Pullman Phuket Arcadia Naithon Beach, Pullman Phuket Panwa Beach Resort, Splash Beach Resort, the Nai Harn Phuket, the Nature Phuket, the Slate, the Village Coconut Island, and Trisara.

The Thailand Economic Monitor noted that exports contracted by 4 per cent in the first quarter of 2019 – the first quarterly contraction in three years.

Private investment and household consumption continued to grow close to their three-year high, helped by low inflation, increasing employment and rising recurrent fiscal spending.

At the same time, public investment weakened as the implementation of “megaprojects” slowed due to election-related delays.

As a result, the economy’s pace of expansion slowed to 2.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, falling below 3 per cent for the first time since mid-2015.

The World Bank projects growth to gradually increase from the expected 3.5 per cent in 2019 to 3.6 and 3.7 in 2020 and 2021, assuming private consumption can be sustained and public investment accelerates.

“Policy continuity and the implementation of planned public infrastructure projects in the Eastern Economic Corridor will be of vital importance to sustain growth,” said Birgit Hansl, World Bank country manager for Thailand.

“Increased regional integration and making better use of Thailand’s strategic location could support trade in goods and services.”

Prolonged political uncertainty is a key risk for Thailand’s economic outlook. Lingering doubts about the cohesiveness of the newly established 19-party coalition government could adversely impact investor and consumer confidence and contribute to a further delay in the timely implementation of large infrastructure projects.

Externally, ongoing trade tensions between the US and China could further weaken demand for Thailand’s exports and discourage private investment in export-oriented industries.

The Thailand Economic Monitor highlights the importance of harnessing financial technology (fintech) for financial inclusion. Thailand has made large strides in expanding access to financial services.

Today, 82 per cent of Thai adults have a formal bank account and the gender gap is small. However, the report finds that challenges remain in the quality of digital financial services, as well as in access to broadband services.

“Expansion of digital services to the underserved would bring about new economic opportunities and support a reduction of inequality as envisaged in Thailand’s national strategy,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, World Bank senior economist for Thailand. “As fintech activities continue to grow in Thailand, inter-governmental collaboration and building a supportive environment for a sound fintech ecosystem would be important.”

Among the report’s policy recommendations to realise the full potential of fintech are: lifting barriers to firms seeking to enter the financial sector; encouraging collaboration between traditional banks and fintech firms; improving coordination among regulators for example on regulatory sandboxes; encouraging public-private and private-private collaboration; and supporting initiatives such as incubators and early-stage seed funding vehicles, as well as providing matching grants to help a fintech firms to take off in Thailand.