Factories slump as trade war (and) politics take toll

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Factories slump as trade war (and) politics take toll

Economy June 26, 2019 01:00

By   THE NATION

2,229 Viewed

THE superpowers’ trade war has weighed down the country’s manufacturing industry, with a key gauge of activity dropping last month by the most in almost three-and-a-half years.

The 3.99 per cent fall in the Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in May was also blamed on political uncertainties. The delays to the formation of a new government are said to have hurt the investment environment and damaged foreign investors’ confidence.

Nattapol Rangsitpol, director-general of the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE), said that the MPI’s plunge was the sharpest year on year since January 2013.

The US-China trade war has driven down global exports by 1.01 per cent from November 2018 to April 2019.

The MPI for June is forecast to decline on the back of a 6.1 per cent decrease in imports of capital goods in May and a 2.3 per cent drop in imports of raw materials and semi-raw materials (excluding gold) that month.

The protracted negotiations for a government to be formed have prompted an investment slowdown in Thailand as investors are in the dark about the direction of government policy.

In the previous month, the OIE has revised down its targeted expansion of the MPI to 2 per cent from an earlier estimate of 2.5 per cent, and its targeted growth for industrial GDP (gross domestic product) to 1.5-2.5 per cent from a previous call of 2-3 per cent.

“The OIE is still confident in the new targets as pressure from US firms to cease the trade war is expected to ease the US-China trade war and improve Thailand’s exports,” Nattapol said.

Industrial production is slowing down in most countries, particularly in consumer electronics, as a result of the trade war. This has forced plants in China to ease production volumes and has led to fast-paced technological changes in mobile phones.

In May, the production of chemical fertilisers, automobiles and engines, rubber products, accessories and hard disk drives dropped, due mainly to declines in domestic consumption and foreign orders.

Production of air conditioners and parts in May rose 13.77 per cent year on year, due mainly to the very hot weather, and orders from Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Japan. Palm oil production jumped 26.91 per cent year on year, boosted by biodiesel promotions and a contract with Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand for palm oil. Production of non-alcoholic beverages and drinking water climbed 16.48 per cent in light of the very warm weather in the country, new products, sales campaigns and expansion in China and Vietnam.

One among exporters’ major concerns is the baht’s appreciation following the US dollar’s depreciation, which could pressure the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its meeting today, said Jitipol Puksamatanan, chief markets strategist at Krungthai Bank.

The baht opened at 30.65 to the US dollar yesterday morning, compared to the previous day’s close of 30.75 per US dollar.

Although the central bank signalled no support for currency speculation to pressure the baht to depreciate, the baht may appreciate further if the MPC views it should support a rise in the policy rate, Jitipol said.

Excise tax mulled on foreign online services

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371745

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Excise tax mulled on  foreign online services

Economy June 26, 2019 01:00

By The Nation

The Excise Department under the Finance Ministry is consIderIng collectIng excise tax on foreIgn servIces provIded through the online system such as movie, music and e-sport that collect member’s fee for downloadIng theIr applications, the department’s director-general Patchara Anuntasilpa said yesterday.

“Market value of this segment Is high but we cannot collect tax from the operators when they are based abroad. But, we are studying the ImposItIon of a 15 per cent excise tax on foreIgn e-commerce busInesses that use ThaI domain names when operatIng In the country”. he said.

According to a research by the National Economic and Social Development Council, the market value of e-sport in Thailand stood at Bt22 billion in 2017 , ranked the 19th hIghest in the world.

RISE IN EXPORTS

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371746

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RISE IN EXPORTS

Economy June 26, 2019 01:00

By The Nation

Thailand’s total export under the 12 Free Trade Agreements (FTA) and the Generalised System of Preference (GSP) rose to US$24.2 billion in the first four months of this year, an Increase of five per cent from the same period last year, Adul Chotinisakorn director-general of Foreign Trade Department of Commerce Ministry said yesterday.

He added that of the total, US$22.54 billion came under FTA contracts. up 3.88 per cent from the same period last year and US$1.72 billion under GSP, up 22.15 per cent year on year.

The top five destInatIons of ThaI exports under FTAs are : Asean (US$8.27 billion), China (US$6.22 billion), Australia (US$2.66 billion), Japan (US$2.57 billion), and India (US$1.53 billion).

Supply chains re-routed to Asean

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371749

Arm Tungnirun, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University’s faculty of law, says the Asean region will soon become a new base for China’s manufacturing operations.
Arm Tungnirun, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University’s faculty of law, says the Asean region will soon become a new base for China’s manufacturing operations.

  Supply chains re-routed to Asean

Economy June 26, 2019 01:00

By   PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT
THE NATION

3,668 Viewed

CHINESE investment in the region’s manufacturing sector will intensify in the upcoming decade as China uses its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to reorientate the global supply chain towards Asean in response to its trade battle with the United States, a geopolitical expert predicts.

“The Asean region will soon become a new base for China’s manufacturing hub as China seeks to reorient the Asia Pacific’s supply chain,” said Arm Tungnirun, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn Unversity’s faculty of law and author of the book China 5.0.

Arm was speaking yesterday at an event titled “’Where China’s Belt and Road Initiative meets Indo-Pacific”, which was organised by the Office of Academic Resources and the Asean Studies Centre of Chulalongkorn University.

As the US-China trade conflict drags on, he said, its most significant impact has been the realignment of the global supply chain towards the Asean region. This is particularly so for foreign companies based in China and Chinese companies looking to invest abroad. The BRI has so far focused on infrastructure construction in developing countries throughout the world. This creates a fruitful business environment for Chinese firms that are looking to invest abroad, Arm said during an interview at the event.

With Chinese firms being hurt by the US tariffs and sanctions, the next phase of the BRI will be focused on realigning the manufacturing supply chain from China towards the Asean region, Arm said.

From 2013 to 2018, US$737 billion of BRI-related capital flowed into the Asean region, according to research by the CIMB Asean Research Institute (CARI) titled “China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Southeast Asia”.

Of these Asean countries, Indonesia gained the largest BRI-related capital flows at US$171 billion, followed by Vietnam with $152 billion, Cambodia $104 billion, Malaysia $98 billion and Singapore $70 billion. Behind them are Laos with $47 billion, Brunei $35 billion, Myanmar $27 billion, Thailand $24 billion and the Philippines $9 billion.

The key BRI-related projects in the region include phase one of the Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima railway, which was initiated in 2017 with an expected completion in 2021. The project is worth up to Bt179 billion.

Other projects include the Vientiane-Boten railway linking Laos with China at a cost of $5.8 billion, the $1.9 billion Cambodian Phnom Penh-Sihanoukville expressway, and the Morowali industrial park in Indonesia valued at $1.6 billion, according to the research.

The pace of the BRI projects and investment into the Asean region will accelerate even more due to the trade war, presenting the region with an unprecedented opportunity for economic growth, Arm claimed.

The Asean Development Bank (ADB) estimates that the total infrastructure investment needs in Asean from 2016 to 2030 will be between $2.8 trillion (the baseline estimate) and $3.1 trillion (a climate-adjusted estimate).

However, concerns were voiced by observers at the seminar about the risks of the BRI becoming a debt trap for developing countries.

The 414km Laos railway project linking Vientiane to Boten (on the Chinese border), for instance, has exacerbated Laos’ already precarious debt levels, which reached 68 per cent of GDP in 2016.

To optimise the benefits of the BRI and supply chain realignment in the region as well as minimise the debt risk of these Chinese-backed projects, Arm advised Asean governments to establish a common position on the BRI and cooperate as a region to assess the risks of the different BRI projects on a case-by-case basis.

Prayut to raise new economic trends in G20 summit

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371748

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Prayut to raise new economic trends in G20 summit

Economy June 25, 2019 19:04

By The Nation

2,280 Viewed

As Asean chair, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha will at this weekend’s G20 summit in Osaka raise discussions on new trends in world economy, trade and investment, innovation and inequality, government spokesman Werachon Sukondhapatipak said.

The premier will also brief the group about the outcome of the Asean Summit held in Bangkok the previous weekend, he said.

Leaders of G20 countries will be discussing global economies and financial stability, the strengthening of financial infrastructure and supporting global economic development, Werachon said.

Prayut will underline Thailand’s role in linking cooperation between Asean and G20 to cope with new challenges as well as build up confidence in the Kingdom, despite former coup-makers holding power after general elections in March.

The group of 20 comprises developed countries in Europe, North America and Asia as well as developing countries such as Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. The group’s combined GDP covers 90 per cent of the world economy and they share 60 per cent of world population.

NBTC to pay three digital-TV operators more than Bt1.5bn after licences handed in

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371747

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NBTC to pay three digital-TV operators more than Bt1.5bn after licences handed in

Economy June 25, 2019 19:01

By The Nation

2,183 Viewed

The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission board on Tuesday approved a resolution that the regulator will pay compensation to three digital-TV licence holders after they return their licences.

The NBTC will pay net compensation of Bt675.764 million to Spring 26 Channel (formerly NOW26 channel), more than Bt500 million to Spring News Channel 19, and Bt371.983 million to Bright TV.

All three stations will go off the air at midnight on August 15.

Bloomberg wants to hear your ‘solutions’

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371705

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Bloomberg wants to hear your ‘solutions’

Economy June 25, 2019 12:46

By THE NATION

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Bloomberg New Economy is calling for entrepreneurs, business leaders, academics and practitioners around the world to share their innovative solutions for a world in which the balance of economic power is continuing to shift from the West to fast-growing economies in Asia, Africa and emerging countries around the globe.

With the rise of new markets, new industries, new technologies and new models of employment and civic participation, businesses and societies face a daunting new set of challenges.

Yet around the world, innovative approaches to some of these challenges are already beginning to emerge and are being tested in big ways and small.

Bloomberg’s New Economy Solutions initiative is founded on the belief that promising, lasting solutions to our biggest societal problems are already out there. We just have to pay attention to them, grow them, share them and turn them into the new normal.

Which emerging technologies can be used to mitigate climate change, or to increase transparency in supply chains? What innovative processes should be applied to rapid urbanisation, or to support workers threatened with job displacement as a result of AI?

“We launched Bloomberg New Economy Solutions in 2018 to identify and address critical challenges facing the global economy by fostering collaboration between public and private sector leaders,” said Justin Smith, CEO of Bloomberg Media.

“In 2019 we are expanding on that idea by finding solutions that are already working, and providing them with the momentum, the support, and the attention that they deserve. The New Economy community includes some of the most influential leaders in the world. They’ll apply their expertise, their perspective, their mentorship, and their business acumen to help scale and implement these solutions, to build an inclusive economy.”

Up to seven solutions will be chosen from the open call, aligned to each of Bloomberg New Economy’s core topic areas – trade, technology, climate, finance and capital markets, inclusion, urbanization and global governance.

One representative from each selected solution will be invited to join nearly 500 of the world’s most influential business executives, technology innovators, government officials, experts, and academics from over 60 countries and regions at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Beijing on November 20-22.

KBank, partner make travel to France, Portugal easier

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371696

KBank, partner make travel to France, Portugal easier

Economy June 25, 2019 11:28

By The Nation

Kasikornbank and TLScontact Enterprises (Thailand), an authorised agent for applicants for visas for France and Portugal, recently began accepting visa fee payments via debit and credit cards for the first time.

TLScontact will also soon introduce a system for paying via QR Code.

The new service is aimed at facilitating the application process for tourists and businesspeople planning to travel to France and Portugal.

The mindset that can make or break you

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371666

Arinya Talerngsri, chief capability officer and managing director at SEAC
Arinya Talerngsri, chief capability officer and managing director at SEAC

The mindset that can make or break you

Economy June 25, 2019 01:00

By SPECIAL TO THE NATION

YOU VIEW the world, people and situations in a certain way based on your beliefs, values and experiences – this is your mindset.

Your mindset acts as the lens for your eyes. Whatever you see, your mindset translates to your brain and then you react.

As human beings, we all have our own set of experiences, values and beliefs that shape our mindset. When different people face the same situation, each may react quite differently from the others. And the more we face different experiences, the more our mindsets are shaped.

But as humans, we also face those moments where we wish that the situation had not gone a certain way or that the other person had taken better responsibility for what transpired. We want to be able to change all that is around us, all that we see that is wrong in our world.

The reality is that you cannot change other people, nor can you change the environment around you that easily. The only thing you can change is your own mindset and inevitably the way you react towards others. In other words, your mindset and how you react to situations can either make you or break you.

This brings us to mistakes and failure. You may already know that failure is an important part of our journey towards success. When we make mistakes, they become great lessons for us as we move towards perfecting our own craft. We learn what to avoid but most importantly, we learn how to tackle the same mistakes better should we face them again.

Failing is inevitable if you step out of your comfort to grow. Mistakes and failures are great teachers, but we must be able to see them in that light. We can fail for many reasons but one way to fail in a way that signals a critical end to our growth and ambitions is through our own mindset. If we don’t see it this way, and assume our mistakes led to our downfall, it surely will go towards that path.

Our mindset is the reason we can learn from these failures, grow to become better and achieve greater heights of success. But, when further along, the very same mindset that helped you succeed could also cause your downfall.

The reality is that there are some situations we face that don’t go our way, even when we try so hard to make sure it does. How we react to these circumstances depends on us and the mindset we have nurtured. This is when we rise towards success or fall back. Because of this, we need to understand ourselves better and avoid falling on the wrong side. Below are some steps to do this.

The first step is to become more self-aware. Self-awareness isn’t just important for understanding yourself better; it also helps you understand how you affect others through your reactions.

To become more self-aware, it is important to go the extra mile in trying to listen to what you say or observing how you react towards certain people in certain situations. One of the many obvious signs that tell you that your mindset is leading you towards your downfall is when you begin blaming other people, or any other external factors, even going as far as to blame yourself when problems arise. Understanding this helps you avoid walking towards your downfall.

The second step is to determine where your mindset tends to fall along the spectrum from negative to positive. This isn’t about being overly optimistic or pessimistic. Rather, it’s about the negative or positive effects that you and your reactions have on other people and the situation.

For example, when you blame yourself or others for the problems that arise, you fall more toward the negative spectrum. Meanwhile, you fall into the positive side when you move past the blaming and take action towards trying to fix the problem.

The third and final step is to push yourself towards the positive end and continue practising to keep up the habit. We cannot change overnight, that is a fact. But if we actively choose to move towards the positive and practice it, we’ll be able to work with others and more effectively solve problems together.

Bringing up the blame example once more, to divert from self-blame or blaming others and move towards the positive end, you can instead choose to look at the situation differently. Things happen and you cannot waste time finding someone to blame. Instead, you should try to solve the problem together.

Life throws many different challenges at us. The reality is that the only way to overcome challenges is to have the right mindset to approach those challenges. We cannot change others or the environment around us very easily, but the good news is we can shape our own mindset to see things differently. That way, we can also solve those problems around us differently and hopefully for the better.

Contributed by ARINYA TALERNGSRI, chief capability officer and managing director at SEAC (formerly APMGroup), Southeast Asia’s Lifelong Learning Centre. She can be reached by email at arinya_t@seasiacenter.com or https://www.linkedin.com/in/arinya-talerngsri-53b81aa

ABeam Consulting raises yellow flags over Big Data

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371667

Ichiro Hara, managing director of ABeam Consulting (Thailand) Ltd
Ichiro Hara, managing director of ABeam Consulting (Thailand) Ltd

ABeam Consulting raises yellow flags over Big Data

Economy June 25, 2019 01:00

By THE NATION

ABEAM Consulting (Thailand) Ltd’s newly released whitepaper examining the role of Big Data in Thailand’s financial services business found that 73.2 per cent of the businesses are studying Big Data and Predictive Analytics as a tool to respond to their challenges, and to enhance their ability to prepare for the unprecedented challenges that lie ahead.

The whitepaper found that emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) will be deployed by these businesses to leverage Big Data. Technological disruption has contributed to the emergence of the fintech industry phenomenon that provides effective and differentiated services including advanced financial services, as well as the enhancement of service process efficiency, security measures and compliance. The report reveals three key success factors to be to consider before rolling out Big Data analytics. Most important was to select potential partners to embed Big Data through an integrated service.

A subsidiary of Japanese global consulting company Abeam Consulting Ltd, which has expertise in digital transformation, the Thailand company evolved a White paper after their initial study on Big Data in Thailand’s financial service business discovered information helpful to enterprises. The study found that 73.2 per cent of financial service institutions were studying Big Data and predictive analytics, with 70 per cent acknowledging that Big Data will be a critical tool to enable the organisations to cope with the major challenges in meeting their business requirements.

“Today, the financial institutions and insurance businesses are up against four different types of challenges,” explained Ichiro Hara, managing director of ABeam Consulting (Thailand) Ltd.

“First, the existing operations face intense competition in differentiating services through digital features, which causes fluctuations in market share. Second, new competitors in the fintech and insurtech businesses are finding it easier to enter the competitive fray by leveraging the customer database to disrupt the industry. Third, customer behaviour is changing in the way it seeks information and buying services wisely. The fourth has to do with the rules and regulations of the relevant agencies in the government sector,” said Hara.

He cited Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) as an example of a financial institution dealing with the challenging environment by prioritising its business requirements. SCB has defined its business requirement as finding a preferred partner with a focus on digital disruption and changing consumer behaviour. This was crucial prior to setting up SCM Abacus to use Big Data for data analytics along with AI for supporting digital platforms, to meet the needs of customers. Financial services businesses need to leverage Big Data to cope with the business challenges that lie ahead and increase their capability to deal with these unprecedented challenges, he said.

Financial services need to take benefits that come from Big Data in order to get over business challenges and enhance their readiness to cope with new challenges. Big Data involves high volumes and diverse sets of information that grow at ever-increasing rates. Data change rapidly as unconstructed data pour in from multiple sources. AI, blockchain and internet of things (IoT) are adopted to leverage Big Data, affecting the exponential growth of the fintech business and disrupting the industry in terms of advanced financial services, an increase in service process efficiency, as well as measures and compliance.

“Many companies are adopting AI to develop financial services,” said Hara. For example, AEC Securities Plc offers AI trading called AIPRO, which creates a stock-trading strategy through in-depth data analysis, and learns how to adjust the trading strategy in changing market situations and trading history. Chatbots on the AI platform have been adopted by many commercial banks to improve customer services such as SCB Connect, Krungsri Bella and TMB Me, he noted.

“Moreover, financial institutions are using AI technology to develop other services such as investment consulting, verification of customer risk profiles, and monitoring of current market situation, as well as obtaining information from various sources to provide counselling,” Hara added.

Although Big Data is a growing trend, many organisations have faced failures in the beginning stage because they did not define the business requirements clearly. Financial services institutions should start with three key factors before launching use of Big Data. The first is addressing the challenges and the effects of the challenges they are facing. The second is defining the factors for success in implementing a Big Data project, and the third is stating the advantages to be gained from a Big Data project. Enterprises must also choose a partner with in-depth analytical knowledge, professional team members focused on data analytics especially in banking and insurance or related businesses, and integrated data analytics services throughout all steps of the project.