“All the parties are in favour of infrastructure development, so progress on the EEC is unlikely to be affected after the election,” said Burin Adulwattana, chief economist and strategist at Bangkok Bank. Burin made the comment at a Fitch Ratings (Thailand) seminar yesterday on the country’s post-election economic and development outlook.

The EEC scheme strenuously promoted by the junta-led government is focused on basing new-technology industries in Chon Buri, Chachoengsao and Rayong.

At least three major political parties – the Democrat, Pheu Thai and Future Forward – have vowed to study the details of the project and proposed investment to ensure the scheme is worth continuing. All three have agreed in principle, however, that the development policy itself is sound.

Chatchart Sittiphan of Pheu Thai has said the next government would have to be careful about the investment aspect since the EEC project is vast, involving a huge amount of money.

The junta-backed government aimed to raise Bt1.9 trillion in investments from both the public and private sectors between last year and 2022.

Among others, key projects include upgrading U-tapao Airport to international standards, a high-speed railway linking Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang and U-tapao airports, and innovation-based “smart cities” that will attract tourists.

“Many key projects have already been approved through the EEC Act, so they can’t simply be overhauled by the next government,” Burin said.

“And the Constitution obliges the incoming government to adhere to the 20-year national strategy, which includes several flagship infrastructure projects launched by the current government.”

Not even a party that opposes existing development policies could change direction, he said. The EEC projects are unlikely to be scrapped.

Obboon Thirachit, director of Fitch Rating (Thailand), said the EEC Act “should provide comfort for investors” about the continuity of the projects.

“Furthermore, given that the main political parties include infrastructure development among their key policies, the EEC projects should not be disrupted by the next government.

“However, there could be delays in the approval of some projects that haven’t yet been approved, so investment in them could be slower than expected due to the process of forming a new government after the election,” he said.

A Fitch Ratings report on Thailand released in January cited the high possibility of a relatively weak coalition government emerging from the election, the result of current electoral regulations. That weakness could pose challenges for the next government when formulating policy, it said.

Obboon said the threat to investment inflow wasn’t political opposition to EEC development but rather the risk of political instability that could follow the election.

Burin added that foreign investors in the capital market had “expressed concern on this issue while also having a certain level of scepticism over the prospects for the EEC”.

“However, Thai firms bidding on EEC projects, as well as Chinese and Japanese investors in the manufacturing sector, do see the potential for growth in the EEC.”

Burin said development of the EEC in the next decade would reinvigorate private and public investment, which has been lacklustre in the past decade, and would help Thailand avoid the “middle-income trap”.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the PM candidate nominated by the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party, was in Chachoengsao yesterday inspecting construction of the Automatic and Tyre Testing, Research and Innovation Centre.

Representing a Bt3.7-billion investment, the centre is envisioned as part of an EEC automotive cluster that will enhance Thailand’s global competitiveness, Prayut told reporters.

“I will push this project forward to the second phase to help rubber-related industries,” he said.

Among them is Punyapon Tepprasit, chief executive officer of MVP Consultant and lecturer in the MBA industrial management programme at Ramkhamhaeng University.

Punyapon shared his thoughts in a recent interview with The Nation.

Punyapon is concerned that “populist” policies have dominated the policy discussion so during this year’s campaign, as they are useful for reaching their target voters and getting them out to vote. Meanwhile, the populist policies implemented in some countries have caused their economic system to fail, in particular the policies of Venezuela.

Punyapon notes that three political parties – Democrat, Pheu Thai and Phalang Pracharat – can expect to win the overwhelming majority of votes in the poll. These parties are in the mainstream of Thai politics, and will together send the largest proportion of representatives to the House Representatives, and any one of them could emerge as the key government player. And so, their economic policies deserve serious consideration.

Punyapon said the Democrat Party is this election focused on policies intended to solve the problem of poverty. In particular, they aim to raise the productivity of agriculture through the Blue Title Deed Project in order to access funding sources to ensure water is available year-round so farmers could raise productivity. This could result in addressing a major pain point for Thai farmers. Similarly to the farmers’ income insurance, it could be proved effective and continued. However, it is interesting to consider that GDP indicators are not the only useful indicators. Other assessments could be used to reduce the gaps and disparities including environmental factors, public health, and others. This point is interesting for helping to prepare the country for success in the modern world.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai Party, the Democrat’s main competitor, also has had both positive and negative outstanding economic performances, including the rice-pledging policy of the Yingluck government. In the latest election race, the party’s policies are quite interesting, said Punyapon, especially those focused on strengthening Thai SMEs, which have been the largest domestic business component driving the real economy for a long time. The interest point with Pheu Thai’s economic platform is the proposal to create a “finance company” in every province to expand the opportunities for SMEs, and others who want to do business, to access funding sources. The opportunity could be expanded to help launch careers and build incomes across the country.

“This point is interesting,” said Punyapon, “and I personally want to see this, because it would reduce the number of people having to relocate to large cities, and would reduce the crime, when jobs are available in every province.”

Phalang Pracharat Party is perhaps best know in this election for having General Prayut as its sole candidate for Prime Minister. The interesting point with their economic platform is that they have adopted the policies that were outlined in the 20-year national strategy. It is likely to continue to run the country much as it has performed in recent years, as a sort of Lego jigsaw-style extension, said Punyapon. Their interesting point is to upgrade the skills of 5 million producers through creating “smart” SMEs, 1 million smart farmers, 1 million startups, and 1 million makers and community retailers.

The concern is whether or not the programme could truly be “smart”, said Punyapon. The current database, which should be created and used to support entrepreneurs to store data, is not working properly. Cleaning and organising the Big Data to be used could take many years. What should not be done, says Punyapon, is to focus too much on startups, and there is a need to admit that Thailand remains distant from its goal of creating the unicorn startups that have succeeded in some other countries. Real success and serious action has yet to be seen regarding the agricultural policy 4.0 that was implemented under the junta regime. That policy is focused on increasing incomes, alternative innovations, reducing debt burdens, reducing risks, and reducing costs.

Economic policies that could appeal to the large majority of citizens could include, for example, giving money to pregnant mothers, child support payments and allowing old cars to be exchanged for electric cars.

“Personally, I think they don’t help the economy in the long run,” said Punyapon. “They are just short-term promotions and would not really change the long-term situation.”

“Looking at the economic policies of the three parties, if the policies of the Democrat Party could be merged with those of Pheu Thai Party, it would be good and I believe it could be the foundation of a long-term economic development mechanism. This could make the Smart Project of Phalang Pracharat party emerge as the reality and not a problem. For the upcoming election, everyone please use your rights and consider the various policies carefully. Are they just marketing campaigns or how realistic are they for Thailand?”

If people considered the policies carefully, “we can really have good government,” said Punyapon.

Speaking at a meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak for monitoring state enterprises’ plans to drive investment and private investment through the BOI, he said all agencies should drive the economy as strategically planned. The BOI encourages the private sector to invest and drive the digital economy as targeted in 2020 when 5G will be used, he added.

BOI secretary-general Duangjai Asawachintachit said that it had approved 5,518 investment applications worth approximately Bt2.28 trillion, including the EEC’s Bt7.215-billion product loading project for container vessels at Laem Chabang Port during 2015-2018.

During the past four years of the EEC’s Bt1.24-trillion approved investment plans, about 60 per cent, or Bt738.16 billion, were for Chon Buri province, 31 per cent, or Bt383.57 billion, for Rayong province and 9 per cent, or Bt117.03 billion, for Chachoengsao province, she said.

Projects previously approved in principle are the high-speed rail project, which will connect the country’s three main airports; the third phase of the Laem Chabang Port project; the third phase of the Map Ta Phut Port project; the U-Tapao Airport development project; the eastern aviation city project and the Digital Park Thailand project, she said.

Of the total investment plans approved during this period, about 65 per cent or Bt1.49 trillion were for targeted industries, she said.

During the past four years, about 6 per cent, or Bt128.20 billion, of the approved investment plans were for five new targeted industries, led by biotechnology projects worth Bt54.65 billion. Such biotech projects mainly involve research and development such as the use of leftover from the agricultural sector’s raw materials including cellulose, production of green hydrocarbon from agricultural produce, and plant varieties and animal breeds with modern biotechnology. The other four newly targeted industries are robotics for industry, digital, aviation and medical services.

The digital industry has registered a sharp expansion, compared to other newly targeted industries, with total approved investment value at Bt26.53 billion, including projects for a digital park, digital technology services, Cloud services and a data centre, Duangjai said.

About 59 per cent, or Bt1.36 trillion, of total investment plans approved targeted five industries: cars and auto parts, electronics and electrical appliances, petrochemical and chemical products, agriculture and food processing, and tourism.

The BOI has approved 206 projects worth Bt50.53 billion for solar farms and biomass power plants in 20 provinces, led by Sa Kaeo province, which has the lowest per capita income, 54 projects worth Bt9.42 billion for border special economic zones and 25 projects worth Bt12.76 billion in the southernmost provinces.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi presided over the opening ceremony held on Tuesday in the middle of the bridge.

During the ceremony, Prayut said the bridge reflected the good bilateral relationship and emphasised the “natural strategic partnership” of the two neighbouring countries.

As the head of Thailand’s government and the representative of its citizens, Prayut said he was glad that both countries would have another route for transportation to facilitate border development and seamless connectivity.

Spanning the Moei River between Ban Wang Takhian in the Tha Sai Luat subdistrict of Mae Sot with Myawaddy in Myanmar, the bridge has been constructed at a cost of around Bt4 billion and consists of a bridge, a 17-kilometre road in Thailand and a four-kilometre road in Myawaddy, as well as border control facilities.

Thai authorities expect the bridge to help connect the Kingdom’s economic zone with Myanmar, facilitate convenience in logistics and transportation, promote tourism, trade and investment, as well as reduce traffic congestion in the first Thailand-Myanmar Friendship Bridge.

During the meeting, Prayut also asked Suu Kyi for cooperation in tackling haze and smoke across the border. The Myanmar State Counsellor said she realised the importance of the issue and would order her Environment Ministry to step up measures to tackle it.

Meanwhile, Suu Kyi expressed her support for Prayut as Thailand’s Asean chair this year.

However, one local economist disagrees, saying it is beyond the capacity of such a small country to save the WTO from a crisis in its multilateral trading system.

Stephen de Boer, Canada’s ambassador and permanent representative to the WTO, said in an exclusive interview with The Nation that Thailand is the 2019 chair of the 10-country Asean trade bloc and its ambassador has assumed the helm of the WTO General Council.

These positions give the Kingdom substantial leverage in WTO reforms, de Boer said.

Sunanta Kangvalkulkij, Thailand’s ambassador to the WTO, is chairing its General Council – its highest-level decision-making body – in Geneva,

“She can influence the way things roll out this year,” de Boer said.

Thailand is among the 90 countries actively supporting the multilateral trading system and is engaging in the reform negotiations, he said, but the process requires input from all 164 members.

Canada recently created “the Ottawa group” of WTO members in a bid to restore public and governmental trust and confidence in the organisation.

“The multilateral trading system is facing significant challenges,” de Boer said. “A lot of people say it’s because of the [Donald] Trump administration, but that’s probably unfair.” Isolationism under President Trump is just one of many challenges confronting the WTO, he said.

WTO members are also mired in the Doha development agenda, talks for which began in 2001. The agricultural sector, specifically, is posing obstacles, though agreement has been reached on export subsidies, environmental clauses and information technology, while negotiations on fishery subsides should be completed by December. Currently, talks are underway on e-commerce.

“We’ve recently faced a challenge regarding the system of resolving disputes, while the US has blocked the appointment of new members to the WTO appellate body,” de Boer said. “There should be seven members, but they are only three right now, dropping to one by December. You need at least three to form a quorum, so the panel will cease being functional.”

He said Canada shared the US view that changes were necessary to improve the WTO, which was founded in 1995. Members are examining what works well and what doesn’t.

However, he agrees with the US that the dispute-settlement mechanism is too legal – too much like a court of law. But, de Boer said, Canada objects to the US tactics of blocking appointments to the appellate body, as it undermines the world trade body.

Regulations governing the appellate are not always clearly worded and prone to contradictory interpretations, as is common in any legal system, he said.

Dispute settlement

“The fundamental question is: Do you believe in the system overall ?” He asked.   “And if you believe in the system, you are willing to abide by a decision you don’t agree with [as well as] abide by a decision you do agree with,” said de Boer.

The US under Trump’s leadership has been taking action unilaterally against China and other countries in trade disputes. This has undermined the multilateral system, which requires members to settle their disputes via the WTO dispute-settlement mechanism.

Trump raised tariff rates against Chinese goods, citing unfair trade practices against US companies as well as China’s continuing high-trade surplus with the US. He has also taken unilateral action against other countries by raising tariffs on imported washing machines, solar panels, steel and aluminium – which is negatively affecting Thailand, EU, Canada, Mexico and other countries. China has retaliated against the US by raising tariffs against US goods.

“We hope the US will return to the WTO,” de Boer added.

In separate interview, Auramon Supthaweethum, director-general at the Department of Trade Negotiations, confirmed to The Nation that Thailand, as Asean chair, will play a greater role in saving the WTO.

The Thai government and WTO held a seminar in Bangkok last week entitled “WTO-Asean Regional Policy Dialogue on WTO Reforms ”. Senior Asean officials will meet in Laos early next month to discuss coordinating collective actions to push for WTO reforms, she said.

“Thailand agrees that it is urgently needed to find solutions to the deadlock in the appellate body before December,” she added.

The economist Sakon Varanyuwatana, however, is sceptical about Thailand’s leadership role at the WTO. “We in Thailand – a small country – cannot do much given that the US, a powerful country, has ignored the multilateral trading system,” he said, adding that many countries have also created trade blocs as an alternative or supplement to the multilateral trading system.

“Thailand should instead focus on negotiating free-trade agreements under RCEP and CPTPP,” Sakon suggested.