#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Stocks rebound from lows on big earnings day

EconJul 31. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Rita Nazareth, Katherine Greifeld, Claire Ballentine · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS

Stocks pared losses as a rally in big technology companies tempered concern over a slow economic rebound. A third day of falling bond yields sent financial shares slumping.

The S&P 500 came off session lows and the Nasdaq 100 climbed as Qualcomm Inc. soared on a strong sales forecast. After the close of regular trading, Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Facebook Inc. jumped as results topped analyst estimates. Earlier Thursday, equities sank as data showed the U.S. economy had its sharpest contraction on record, while the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose. President Donald Trump raised the notion of delaying the Nov. 3 election until after the coronavirus pandemic eases.

Some corporate highlights:

– United Parcel Service Inc. jumped to a record on results that blew past estimates.

– Procter & Gamble Co. had a surge in sales amid high demand for detergent and continued stockpiling.

– Mastercard Inc. reported a rebound in consumer purchases on its cards in July.

– PayPal Holdings Inc. saw spending on its platform surge as more merchants switched to online sales.

– Johnson & Johnson’s experimental coronavirus vaccine protected a group of monkeys with a single shot, prompting it to start trials in humans this month.

Thanks to solid balance sheets and a suite of products that benefit from social distancing, giant tech companies have fared better during the pandemic-induced recession. The Nasdaq 100 is still poised to beat the S&P 500 for a 10th consecutive month – the longest winning stretch in 20 years. But with much of the good news already priced into markets, traders are looking for catalysts that could sustain further momentum in equities.

“We’re in that uncertain time between the hopeful third quarter rebound and some concern about the reopening process and what the recovery looks like,” said Tom Garretson, senior portfolio strategist for RBC Wealth Management. “We’re kind of in that void right now, waiting for things to play out.”

In a very busy day for earnings, investors also digested economic figures that highlighted the massive devastation caused by the coronavirus pandemic. While some numbers have improved after the reopenings, the recent spike in infections shows that the recovery will most likely take time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that there are signs the increase in cases is starting to weigh on activity, while noting that the path forward for the economy is “extraordinarily uncertain.”

“It’s shocking no matter how you look at it,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Schwab Center for Financial Research. “Are things going to get better from here? I don’t think we know just yet. The virus is getting worse in a lot of areas, and some places have started to shut back down again. If you look at earnings in terms of beat rates, the results have actually been pretty good, granted the expectations bar has been set very low.”

There’s a distinction to be made between the S&P 500’s five biggest companies and all the rest, according to BCA Research.

The firm compared the total market value of the five – Amazon.com, Apple, Facebook, Google owner Alphabet and Microsoft Corp. – with the value of the other 495 companies in a chart last week. The top five’s value increased 266% from the start of 2015 through Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In the same period, the value of the rest rose just 25% – and the entire gain occurred after the S&P 500 set this year’s low in March.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 decreased 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index decreased 2.2%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.2%.

– The euro increased 0.4% to $1.1841.

– The Japanese yen appreciated 0.1% to 104.80 per dollar.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys declined four basis points to 0.54%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield sank four basis points to -0.54%.

– Britain’s 10-year yield fell three basis points to 0.088%.

Commodities

– The Bloomberg Commodity Index dipped 1.1%.

– West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2.8% to $40.13 a barrel.

– Gold weakened 0.8% to $1,954.24 an ounce.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Virus impact easing for business: BOT survey

EconJul 31. 2020

By The Nation

Businesses are enjoying some relief from the impact of Covid-19, the Bank of Thailand said on Thursday (July 30), citing progress in economic reopening.

The central bank’s latest survey found businesses reported less impact in July after the fifth phase of lockdown easing.

A total of 297 large and small businesses were surveyed to reveal the pandemic’s affect on three channels – logistics, global supply chain disruption, and consumers’ behaviour shift.

On logistics issues, 21 per cent reported no impact in July, up from 17.2 per cent in June.

On global supply chain disruption, 33.4 per cent reported no impact, up from 25.9 per cent in June.

On consumers’ behaviour shift, businesses unaffected rose to 30.7 per cent, from 22.6 per cent in June.

The decreasing Covid-19 impact has also been positive for employment in many business sectors. However, tourism-related businesses such hotels and restaurants are still cutting working hours as the sector struggles to recover.

Machinery manufacturers and financial services, meanwhile, have been hit hardest by changes in consumer behaviour. Consumers are spending less, leading to low demand for machinery and also affecting loan volumes as well as quality of lending, said the survey.

It was conducted from July 1 to 24.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Investors advised to hold more cash, watch 5 factors

EconJul 31. 2020

By The Nation

An expert at Trinity Securities has advised investors to convert some of their stockholding into cash savings to prepare for the third quarter this year.

The second quarter saw the Thai stock market recover by 20 per cent, but negative sentiment persists over the Covid-19 pandemic, non-performing loans, the decline in GDP, and changes in asset values – all factors that are prompting investors to revise their investment strategy.

Nuttachart Mekmasin, a research analyst at Trinity Securities, said the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rebounded quickly on hopes of economic recovery in the second half of 2020 but had hit a ceiling with no further rise expected soon.

He advised investors to hold 30 per cent in cash and invest 10 per cent in Thai stocks, 20 per cent in foreign stocks, 20 per cent in Thai and foreign bonds, 15 per cent in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), and 5 per cent in gold.

“Regarding foreign stocks, we advise investing 10 per cent in developed markets and another 10 per cent in emerging markets, especially Europe, Japan, and MSCI Emerging Markets,” he said.

“For REITs, we advise investing 10 per cent in foreign REITs because Thai REITs are focused on investment in assets affected by the Covid-19 impact.”

He pinpointed five factors that investors should follow during the second half of 2020:

1. Economic policymakers’ moves: Investors should follow any move to reduce injection of cash into the economic system as this will affect assets’ value.

2. Economic recovery and listed companies’ second-half performance: An absence of signs of recovery will trigger a severe market correction.

3. US-China conflict and US presidential election: These factors will affect the issuing of economic policies.

4. Thailand’s Covid-19 relief measures: Measures such as the Bank of Thailand’s debt payment holiday and the SET’s uptick rule will expire soon; investors will make more short sales if the SET does not extend the uptick rule period.

5. Opec’s agreement to cut oil production: The oil price will drop again if demand increases.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Finance Ministry cuts 2020 GDP forecast to -8.5% 

EconJul 31. 2020Lavaron Sangsnit, director general at the Fiscal Policy Office

By The Nation

The Finance Ministry has revised down its GDP projection for 2020 to an 8.5-per-cent contraction and will launch additional measures to boost tourism.

Lavaron Sangsnit, director general at the Fiscal Policy Office, said  the ministry revised its forecast downwards from its original projection of 2.8 per cent growth.

“We forecast the economy will contract in a range of 8 to 9 per cent and exports in dollar terms will fall as much as 11 per cent, as Thailand’s trading partners have also been hit hard by Covid-19,” he told a press conference on Thursday (July 30).

Thailand’s 15 trading partners will suffer an average 4.1 per cent economic contraction, according to the Finance Ministry forecast.

Thailand’s economy is expected to plunge more than 10 per cent in the second quarter, figures for which are about to be released.

Despite the economic downturn, the baht is expected to remain strong at around Bt31.7/dollar this year. The Dubai crude oil price is forecast to be at $42 a barrel while the central bank is expected to maintain the policy rate at the current 0.5 per cent for the rest of the year, said Lavaron.

The number of foreign tourists will drop to 6.8 million from about 40 million last year.

The ministry is looking at additional measures to boost domestic tourism on top of the “Travel Together” scheme that subsidises 40 per cent of accommodation and travel costs for Thais holidaying in Thailand. So far, about 6,000 hotels of the total 60,000 nationwide have registered to participate in the scheme, he said.

The Finance Ministry is now working on new incentives for hotels to join. 

“We do not expect [the scheme] to boost economic growth but we want to redistribute income nationwide,” said Lavaron.

He ruled out more relief cash handouts, arguing that the economy has started to recover. 

“Out of our Bt1 trillion borrowing to aid economic recovery, about Bt200 billion is still unused and will be reserved for the future in case of a second wave of coronavirus,” he said.

The government will also accelerate infrastructure spending, which is expected to boost capital spending by 9.7 per cent year on year, he said.

However, private consumption is expected to fall by 2.6 per cent.

Due to the steep fall in exports and weakening consumption , private investment is expected to contract sharply by 12.6 per cent.

The Finance Ministry is more optimistic about next year’s outlook, forecasting GDP growth of between 4 and 5 per cent and export growth at 5 per cent. Foreign tourist arrivals next year are predicted to rise to 15 million-16 million.

The ministry expects that a coronavirus vaccine will be available by the middle of next year, which will boost the tourism industry.

Lavaron assured people that the government still had money to spend to boost the economy should a second wave of the virus occur. The Bank of Thailand recently forecast the Thai economy would shrink 8.1 per cent this year, though some research houses predict a 10-per-cent contraction.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

U.S. jobless claims rise a second week in sign of growing risks

EconJul 30. 2020A worker gives a pedicure to a customer outside of a nail salon in Palo Alto, Calif., on July 28, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by David Paul Morris.

By Syndication Washingon Post, Bloomberg · Olivia Rockeman · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS, CAREER-WORKPLACE 

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased for a second straight week, a sign the economic rebound is increasingly at risk with Congress poised to potentially let supplemental $600 payments expire.

Initial claims through regular state programs rose to 1.43 million in the week ended July 25, up 12,000 from the prior week, a Labor Department report showed Thursday. There were 17 million Americans filing for ongoing benefits through those programs in the period ended July 18, up 867,000 from the prior week — the largest increase since early May.

U.S. stock futures remained lower after the report, while 10-year Treasury yields extended declines. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had forecast 1.445 million initial claims, with projections as high as 1.6 million.

Almost five months into the pandemic, economic pain remains widespread, with the persistent jump in coronavirus infections and lack of a vaccine preventing a return to normal for the foreseeable future. Further challenges for Americans are in store should lawmakers allow the $600 in extra federal weekly jobless benefits to expire this week; Democrats and Republicans have remained far apart in negotiations over extending the aid that has propped up consumers and businesses.

A separate report Thursday showed the U.S. economy shrank at a record 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, pointing to the effects business closures and lost jobs are having on the broader economy.

“Even if the reopening goes well — and many, many people go back to work — it is still going to take a fairly long time for parts of the economy that involve lots of people getting together in close proximity” to recover, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday, after the central bank kept interest rates near zero. “Those people are going to need support.”

The Labor Department said its seasonal factors had assumed an unadjusted decline of about 181,000 initial claims; the count fell by about 171,000. That resulted in an increase of 12,000 after the department applied its seasonal adjustment.

The data showed initial claims in almost all states fell on an unadjusted basis last week. California — the most populous state and a hotspot for the virus — saw a 40,587 decline on an unadjusted basis, while Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Texas also reported significant drops.

States with increases included Nevada, New Jersey, Virginia and Kansas.

The jump in continuing claims was concentrated in California and Texas, which reported a combined increase of about 576,000 on an unadjusted basis. Florida showed a decline of about 122,000.

States reported 829,697 people filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program for those not eligible for regular state programs including independent contractors and self-employed Americans. That figure was down from the prior week.

And the total number of unadjusted continuing claims fell to 30.2 million three weeks ago from 31.8 million. This figure, though, has reflected overcounting of PUA applications as states clear backlogs.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET down over 1.5% despite positive Fed news

EconJul 30. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,315.74 today (July 30), down 22.61 points or 1.69 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt67.115 billion with an index high of 1,347.45 and a low of 1,313.10.

In the morning session, a stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fluctuate between 1,330 and 1,350 points.

“The market gained positive sentiment from the US Federal Reserve’s move to maintain the interest rate at 0-0.25 per cent and a promise that it would issue measures to help economic recovery amid the Covid-19 crisis,” the analyst explained.

“The index was also boosted by mass buy-ups of stocks whose second-quarter performance is expected to improve.”

However, the analyst said the index would be pressured by uncertainty following rising Covid-19 cases in the US and conflict there between lawmakers over $1 trillion in relief measures.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were KCE, AOT, CPALL, HANA, DELTA, PTT, GULF, PTTEP, OSP, and SCC.

As of 4.30pm, the price of crude oil dropped by US$0.72 or 1.74 per cent to $40.55 per barrel, while gold dropped by $12.80 or 0.65 per cent, to $1,963.90 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 22,339.23, down 57.88 points, or 0.26 per cent

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,286.82, down 7.73 points, or 0.23 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,466.85, down 90.59 points, or 0.67 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,710.59, down 172.55 points, or 0.69 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,267.01, up 3.85 points, or 0.17 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 12,722.92, up 181.95 points, or 1.45 per cent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET rises on Fed’s rate move, vow to introduce more relief measures

EconJul 30. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 7.18 points, or 0.54 per cent, to 1,345.53 in morning trade today (July 30).

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fluctuate between 1,330 and 1,350 points.

“The market gained positive sentiment from the US Federal Reserve’s move to maintain the interest rate at 0-0.25 per cent and a promise that it would issue measures to help economic recovery amid the Covid-19 crisis,” he explained.

“Also, mass buy-ups in stocks, whose second-quarter performance is expected to improve, boosted the index.”

However, the analyst said uncertainty following the conflict between US Republicans and Democrats over $1-trillion in Covid-19 relief measures and the rising number of infections in the United States would pressure the index.

He recommended investors buy:

> Food and Electronic stocks that benefit from the weakening baht, such as CPF, GFPT, TU, TFG, Asian, KCE, Delta, Hana, and SVI.

> Stocks whose second-quarter performance is expected to improve, such as Top, PTTGC, SPRC, BGrim, CKP, CPF, TU, Tasco, STA, STGT, SPALI, AP, PRM, PTL, AJ, Stark, CBG, TQM, and JMT.

The SET Index closed at 1,338.35 yesterday (July 29), down 2.57 points, or 0.19 per cent. Total transactions stood at Bt56.11 billion, with an index high of 1,349.91 and a low of 1,337.03 points.