Susco confident it will meet target of 20 new petrol stations this year #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Susco confident it will meet target of 20 new petrol stations this year

Corporate

Jun 24. 2020

By THE NATION

Oil company Susco Plc will press ahead with meeting its target of opening 20 petrol stations this year, 10 of which have already been constructed and the other 10 should be completed later in the year, managing director Chairit Simaroj said.

The construction of the 20 new stations was briefly disrupted by the Covid-19 outbreak, he said, adding that the renovation of Susco’s existing stations in Bangkok and Greater Bangkok might have to be postponed as the company wants to keep cash in hand as part of risk diversification.

He added that the company has sufficient cash flow.

As of 2019, Susco Plc has 240 petrol stations.

Abu Dhabi sells $10 billion stake in pipelines to consortium #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Abu Dhabi sells $10 billion stake in pipelines to consortium

Corporate

Jun 23. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Anthony Di Paola, Manus Cranny, Dinesh Nair · BUSINESS

Abu Dhabi sold a $10.1 billion stake in its natural-gas pipelines to a group of six investors including Global Infrastructure Partners, Brookfield Asset Management and Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, in the biggest infrastructure acquisition so far this year.

The buyers will have a 49% holding in a new subsidiary for the pipelines set up by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., which will retain the rest of the shares, the state-owned energy producer said in a statement Tuesday.

Infrastructure has been one of the few bright spots for dealmakers since the coronavirus outbreak led to a sharp downturn in mergers and acquisitions. The volume of such deals increased in the first quarter by almost 20% year-on-year to $81 billion, according to data provider Preqin.

The Adnoc transaction values the pipelines at $20.7 billion. It surpasses KKR & Co.’s agreement in March to buy the waste-management arm of U.K. utility Pennon Group Plc for $5.2 billion (4.2 billion pounds), and Portuguese oil company Galp Energia SGPS SA’s plan to sell its gas-distribution assets for as much as $1.7 billion (1.5 billion euros).

The pipelines deal will bring cash into Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, as it grapples with this year’s almost-35% plunge in crude prices. It’s the largest transaction in the emirate’s three-year push to use energy assets to attract foreign direct investment.

“Given the global economic climate, it is a great endorsement of Adnoc and the UAE’s world-class assets,” Adnoc Chief Executive Officer Sultan Al Jaber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

The consortium also includes Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, NH Investment & Securities Co. of South Korea and Italian gas-network operator Snam SpA.

The 38 pipelines involved in the deal span almost 621 miles (1,000 kilometers). Adnoc will lease the network for 20 years and pay a tariff based on the amount of gas it transports through it. The subsidiary, Adnoc Gas Pipeline Assets, will distribute all its free cash to the investors through quarterly dividends.

Abu Dhabi has been opening up its energy industry as it tries to generate additional sources of funding. Adnoc has sold shares in its distribution unit and brought international investors into its refining and oil-field servicing arms. KKR and BlackRock Inc. agreed last year to invest $4 billion in Adnoc’s oil pipelines. GIC later bought a stake in the business.

Those earlier steps to raise cash, along with efforts at cutting costs, make Adnoc “far stronger and better positioned to manage the current market dynamics and price fluctuations,” Al Jaber said.

Abu Dhabi isn’t the only Persian Gulf oil producer selling energy assets. Saudi Arabia listed shares in Saudi Aramco for the first time in December. The company, the world’s largest oil exporter, has also asked advisers to study a sale of part of its pipeline unit.

Adnoc was advised by Bank of America Corp., First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, Mizuho Financial Group Inc and Moelis & Co.

The buyers got a loan of about $8 billion from a pool of international banks to fund the transaction, Snam said in a separate statement. It didn’t identify the lenders.

Among the investors, GIP will hold the largest share in the subsidiary. The rest of the group will take equal stakes, Snam said. The Italian company is contributing $250 million of its own funds, it said.

Surge in demand pushes up gold price #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Surge in demand pushes up gold price

Econ

Jun 24. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold rose by Bt100 per baht weight in morning trade on Wednesday (June 24), the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.26am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,750 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,850, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt25,286.88 and Bt26,350, respectively.

At close on Tuesday (June 23), buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,650 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,750, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt25,180.76 and Bt26,250, respectively.

The Gold Spot Index price on Wednesday morning moved to around US$1,769 (Bt53,538) per ounce after the price rose by $15.60 to $1,782 per ounce at Tuesday’s close, the highest in seven years.

Gold gained from the surge in demand due to uncertainties following the weakening dollar and the tensions between US and China.

SET rises, but worries of second Covid-19 wave remain #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET rises, but worries of second Covid-19 wave remain

Econ

Jun 24. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index opened at 1,364.62, up 8.19 points, or 0.60 per cent, on Wednesday morning (June 23).

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fluctuate between 1,350 and 1,365 due to uncertainty following the second Covid-19 wave.

“The market gained positive sentiment from hopes of an economic recovery after the US and Europe manufacturing and service Purchasing Managers’ Index in June rose to the highest in four months at 46.8 and 4.75, respectively in response to the lockdown easing,” he said.

“However uncertainty over a second wave of Covid-19 after the number of new cases in the US continues to rise would plunge the index.”

The analyst advised investors to follow the Thai Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, adding that investors expected the MPC to maintain interest rate at 0.50 per cent.

He recommended the following stocks to investors:

▪ Energy stocks that benefit from the rising crude oil price, such as PTT, PTTEP, Top, PTTGC, IRPC, SPRC and IVL.

▪ Food stocks that benefit from rising pork and chicken prices, such as CPF, GFPT and TFG.

▪ Stocks whose second-quarter performance will improve, such as CKP, Tasco, STA and RS.

The SET Index rebounded by 4.25 points on Tuesday (June 23), or 0.31 per cent, closing at 1,356 as fears of a US-China trade war among investors has eased.

Total transactions amounted to Bt49 billion. Foreign investors made net sales of Bt773 million in stocks, while net bond purchases amounted to Bt20 million. There were 6,848 net long TFEX SET50 contracts.

Hong Kong economy gets boost from staycations, dining deals #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Hong Kong economy gets boost from staycations, dining deals

Econ

Jun 24. 2020Pedestrians ride on an escalator past banners promoting local tourism in Hong Kong on Friday, June 19, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Chan Long HeiPedestrians ride on an escalator past banners promoting local tourism in Hong Kong on Friday, June 19, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Chan Long Hei

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Jinshan Hong, Eric Lam · BUSINESS, WORLD, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS, ASIA-PACIFIC

People walking through the Lan Kwai Fong area of Hong Kong over the weekend might have been surprised to see a truly uncommon sight for 2020: a busy restaurant.

The Crown Super Deluxe, a new Japanese Teppanyaki grill restaurant in the centrally located bar district, saw most of its seats filled after the government eased social-distancing restrictions and moved the city another step closer to normality.

“On the one hand, we don’t have people coming in to Hong Kong, but we also don’t have people going out of Hong Kong,” said Christopher Mark, founder of Black Sheep Restaurants, which operates the grill. As virus-beating restrictions lift amid Hong Kong’s low and stable case-count, Mark says he’s “a little bit more optimistic.”

A captive audience for Hong Kong’s hotels, restaurants and shopping malls has contributed to a modest uptick in retail sales in May and June, with pent-up demand among the city’s residents for food and entertainment unleashed. Yet concerns remain that the city’s battered tourism industry will not see business coming back to pre-downturn levels, and many wonder how long this current resurgence can last as unemployment rises and some expats leave the city.

Hong Kong has had three straight months of retail sales declines greater than 35%, and tourist arrivals fell 99.9% in both April and May as strict quarantine orders on the vast majority of arrivals remain in place. The city’s wider economy contracted 8.9% in the first quarter from year-ago levels, suffering its worst quarter on record and extending the first recession in a decade.

A major obstacle to a real recovery is that the millions of Chinese tourism visits per month won’t return to Hong Kong even after the virus subsides. Anti-China protests have reignited since Beijing pushed ahead on a new national security law last month.

“Specifically for hotel accommodation and other tourism activities, they can only experience a turnaround when the quarantine is relaxed, not only in Hong Kong but in most major cities worldwide,” according to Iris Pang, chief economist for greater China at ING Bank.

Some signs are emerging that smaller businesses are more optimistic about their short-term prospects. May readings for the outlook among smaller retailers and restaurants in the city rose above the 50 level marking favorable business conditions for the first time since at least 2018 and that for restaurants hit a record at 53.6, according to data from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong.

– – –

Shoppers in Hong Kong are returning to malls, said Ada Wong, chief executive officer of the Champion REIT real estate firm.

“We are seeing a very good and encouraging retail sentiment especially after the relaxation of social distancing,” Wong said in an interview on Bloomberg Television on Friday. Foot traffic in the Langham Place mall in Mong Kok is almost back to normal – with just the tourists missing, according to Wong.

Still, retailers – especially of luxury goods – worry that the uptick could be fleeting.

The Bluebell Group, Asia’s largest distributor of luxury brands including Versace and Moschino, has seen some recovery in business in Hong Kong, yet it is still in deep contraction. Sales for the company’s portfolio of luxury brands were still down 50% in May and June compared with last year in Hong Kong, an improvement of a 70% drop in previous months.

“We are a bit scared that what we’ve seen in May and June might not hold for too long,” said Managing Director Samy Redjeb, “It could be a one-off because consumers want to enjoy the promotion and the discount and they might not come back regularly every month.”

He mentioned that this summer will be key for many retailers as they decide whether to keep stores in the city. He said that if border restrictions aren’t eased and local consumption slows after the promotions “and rents are back to 100%, then many retailers will reconsider their footprint in August, as we will.”

– – –

In the hospitality sector, Google trends data shows that searches in Hong Kong for the word “staycation” recently surged to a record high. Hotels are capturing the demand. A Hyatt hotel in the tourism hotspot Tsim Sha Tsui is promoting its summer staycation package. For a king-bed deluxe room on a Friday night, the rate is HK$1,380 ($178) including a two-person breakfast and an additional HK$1,000 dining coupon.

“As tourists are virtually zero, hotels are trying to attract local customers by providing promotion packages of stay plus meal,” said Yiu Si-wing, a Hong Kong lawmaker representing the tourism industry. “Hotels can’t charge any higher. Without such a discount, people won’t show up.”

Financial Secretary Paul Chan has urged businesses to offer discounts so residents can make use of a HK$10,000 cash handout currently being readied to help spur the economy.

The structural shift to focus on local demand could affect the city’s luxury industry, as big brands are preparing to reduce their scale.

On a recent Thursday evening, customers filled the two-floor showroom of OnTheList in Central, a flash-sale company that works with luxury brands including LVMH and Kering to offload items from past seasons. Since the end of May store traffic has returned to about 75% of pre-virus levels, according to co-founder Diego Dultzin. That’s up from a trough of about 16% in previous months.

“All the brands that we’re working with are now looking at reducing the presence in Hong Kong. Of course the market is going to be smaller and smaller,” said Dultzin, who recently opened in Shanghai. “We know that Hong Kong has a limit.”

U.S. stocks rise with virus spread tempering gains #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

U.S. stocks rise with virus spread tempering gains

Econ

Jun 24. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Robert Brand · BUSINESS

 U.S. stocks rose for a second day, but faded into the close as concern mounted that a spike in virus cases in some states could curtail economic activity. Gold rallied to its best level since 2012.

The S&P 500 jumped as much as 1.2% before paring the gain by two-thirds on reports that spiking cases in several hotspots in the South and Southwest threatened to derail plans to ramp up reopening. The Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high, with investors keying on signs of continued economic growth and the idea that any setback will be met with increased government spending and Federal Reserve moves.

Stimulus “puts the bottom on bad news,” said Nela Richardson, an investment strategist at Edward Jones. “Bad news isn’t so bad if we think that that means more stimulus. The markets are responding also to the quick action, quickest in any recession going back to the Great Depression, of the Federal government and monetary authorities, not just in the United States, but around the world.”

Apple, Amazon and Facebook jumped at least 2%. Mohawk Industries, which provides home flooring, Darden Restaurants and Live Nation were among leaders in the S&P 500.

Treasurys were little changed, with the 10-year yielding around 0.71%, while the dollar dropped for a second day. Equities rose in Europe and in Asia. Gold pushed to its highest level since 2012, and oil topped $41 a barrel in New York.

Carmakers and banks led a broad advance in the Stoxx Europe 600 index after positive economic data in the euro area. The euro strengthened and yields ticked higher on core European bonds.

Investors are betting that trillions of dollars in stimulus by central banks and governments around the globe will shield economies from a resurgence in virus breakouts. PMIs for June, showed business activity in the world’s largest economy continuing a rebound that started in May.

While euro-area PMI gauges earlier fueled a risk-on mood, they also underlined some of the pressures that a long and slow recovery would impose on companies struggling with weak demand.

Anthony Fauci, the U.S.’s top infectious-disease doctor, warned Tuesday that the coronavirus isn’t taking a summer break, judging from its persistent spread in the U.S. Sun Belt. A German state locked down a municipality where 1,553 workers tested positive at a single meat factory.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. EDT.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.5% to 26,194.

The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.8%, hitting the highest on record with its eighth consecutive advance and the largest advance in a week.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% to the lowest in almost two weeks.

The euro climbed 0.4% to $1.1304, the strongest in more than a week.

The Japanese yen appreciated 0.4% to 106.54 per dollar, the strongest in almost seven weeks on the biggest increase in almost two weeks.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasurys rose less than one basis point to 0.71%.

The two-year yield slipped to 0.19%

Britain’s 10-year yield rose two basis points to 0.211%.

Germany’s 10-year yield climbed three basis points to -0.41%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $40.24 a barrel.

Gold futures strengthened 1.1% to $1,785 an ounce, the highest in almost eight years.

BOT may focus on rising bad debts and leave key policy rate untouched #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

BOT may focus on rising bad debts and leave key policy rate untouched

Econ

Jun 24. 2020

By The Nation

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is likely to leave the key policy rate unchanged during the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPC) today (June 24), analysts say, but warn about rising bad debts.

The MPC has cut key policy rates three times this year, from 1.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent, though most analysts expect the central bank to maintain its key policy rate. 

Somprawin Manprasert, chief economist at Krungsri Bank, believes the MPC will today unanimously vote to leave the key policy rate unchanged at 0.5 per cent. 

“It will be more interesting to watch how the central bank assesses the economic outlook and the quality of banks’ assets instead,” he said.  

The central bank’s assessment on the quality of banks’ assets may lead to more measures to address rising bad debts, he said.

BOT implemented pre-emptive measures on Friday telling commercial banks to hold off on paying interim dividend and buying back shares. 

Somprawin said the current economic situation has not changed and the inflation rate is not putting pressure on the monetary policy, adding that Krungsri Research has been monitoring the economy’s recovery route. He said he expects the economy and people’s income to recover gradually. 

He also said it is important for businesses to be resilient, and for them to have adequate capital to resume operations as the government relaxes lockdown restrictions, he said. 

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, assistant managing director at Phatra Securities, shared similar views, saying that the rate will be left unchanged because the economic situation has not changed much compared to the previous time MPC met. Also, the rate cut in the committee’s last meeting went through with a narrow 4:3 vote. 

He said he expects the central bank to revise downwards its economic projection of 5.3 per cent contraction, because the pandemic has had a greater impact on tourism than previously thought. Phatra Securities, meanwhile, predicts an economic contraction of 9 per cent this year. 

“There are no foreign tourists now. Revenue from foreign arrivals accounted for about 12 per cent of the GDP. We don’t know when they will start returning to Thailand, so it has had a huge impact on the Thai economy,” he said. 

He also warned that the Bt1 trillion government stimulus, representing just 5 to 6 per cent of the GDP, may not help much.

Naris Sathapholdeja, head of TMB Analytics, also does not think the MPC will cut the rate today. 

He said the economy has bottomed out and will take time to recover. The central bank’s greatest worry now is financial stability. If the rate is far too low, then people will be driven to seek high yields and be willing to take higher risks, he said. 

The MPC may also want to keep its ammunition for use later in case there is a second-wave of Covid-19 infections. 

He said TMB has forecast a 5 per cent contraction this year, adding that though large revenue from foreign tourists is gone, domestic tourists may partially compensate for the shortfall.

Last year, revenue from foreign tourists came in at Bt1.9 trillion, domestic tourists Bt1.1 trillion, while Thai outbound tourists spent about Bt440 billion overseas. 

If the local big-spenders who go overseas choose to travel domestically, then domestic tourism may generate additional revenue for the country, he said. This way, he added, domestic tourism may stop the economy from shrinking further.

Market exuberance faces biggest test yet from confluence of risk #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Market exuberance faces biggest test yet from confluence of risk

Econ

Jun 24. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · William Shaw, Michael Msika, Vassilis Karamanis · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 
Markets may be headed for a wake-up call as scenarios that investors brushed aside to fuel a global rally move closer to reality.

These include seeing the rate of covid-19 infections pick up in nations that have eased lockdowns, growing tension between the U.S. and China and corporate finances faltering. The number of defaults in China’s dollar bond market is climbing and second-quarter earnings are just around the corner.

“I would add the growing realization that the official stimulus pipeline that has been feeding the risk rally is drying up,” said Valentin Marinov, head of Group-of-10, foreign-currency strategy at Credit Agricole. “It’s a matter of critical mass of bad news that could tip the rally over and investors turn defensive again.”

The brief but sudden drop in stocks in Asian trading on Tuesday after White House adviser Peter Navarro sowed confusion over the U.S.-China trade deal is evidence that, despite the trillions of dollars in stimulus being pumped into global markets, risk sentiment may be fragile. Rabobank’s Michael Every described the jolt as a “a taste of things to come.”

“It’s concerning how few tail risks are priced stemming from a second wave, the U.S. presidential election and a hard Brexit,” said Jordan Rochester, a Group-of-10 currency strategist at Nomura International in London.

Before Tuesday’s knee-jerk reaction in markets, stock and currency volatility had fallen to levels last seen before the virus, and the Japanese yen — a globally recognized haven — dropped below its five-year average, having underperformed almost all its Group-of-10 peers this quarter.

The gap between the Stoxx Europe 600 index and profit forecasts for its members is near the widest on record. Markets are on tenterhooks for second-quarter results, which will indicate how badly lockdowns have hurt companies. And bears have been retreating from the British pound, even as the prospect of a no-deal Brexit looms.

But the big risk that isn’t priced in “is policymakers potentially slowing down the stimulus,” Rochester said. Those measures have helped high-yielding assets advance despite a plethora of negative data this quarter.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a Bloomberg Opinion article on Monday that the financial system mustn’t become reliant on these extraordinary levels of reserves, with some monetary stimulus needing to be withdrawn as economies recover.

The BOE last week announced it would complete its asset-purchase program around the turn of the year, which could put further pressure on financial markets. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve data showed that its balance sheet contracted 1%, the first drop since late February.

Markets may be starting to acknowledge a slower recovery, with stocks of companies that benefit from workers staying at home — such as Netflix and Amazon.com — doing well on Monday, and gold prices rising for a third day Tuesday.

The pick up in euro-area economic activity after the lifting of lockdowns in June is doing little to change the picture of a long, slow recovery and rising unemployment.

“We have been taking profit,” said John Taylor, who manages $6.6 billion at AllianceBernstein in London and bought corporate bonds in April. “I wouldn’t only worry about a second wave of Covid and any reversal of lockdown, but also how the economy holds up as governments start to ease back on the support.”

U.S. stocks gain for second day; oil extends rally #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

U.S. stocks gain for second day; oil extends rally

Econ

Jun 23. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Robert Brand · BUSINESS 

U.S. stocks rose amid a report that President Donald Trump supports sending another round of checks to Americans and data that showed American manufacturing nearing expansion. Oil climbed and the dollar retreated.

The S&P 500 pushed to a two-week high with investors continuing to focus on signs the American economy is bouncing back from the shutdown. Investors remain on edge over tension with China after a wild overnight session that saw futures plunge after a White House adviser said the trade deal was over. They rebounded when after President Donald Trump contradicted the statement.

Treasurys were little changed, with the 10-year yielding around 0.71%, while the dollar dropped for a second day. Equities rose in Europe and in Asia. Gold continued its push toward the highest level since 2012 and oil topped $41 a barrel in New York.

Carmakers and banks led a broad advance in the Stoxx Europe 600 index after positive economic data in the euro area. Bayer AG rose more than 7% after a report that the company is close to resolving the litigation over its Roundup weedkiller. The euro strengthened and yields ticked higher on core European bonds.

Investors are betting that trillions of dollars in stimulus by central banks and governments around the globe will shield economies from a resurgence in virus breakouts. PMIs for June, due Tuesday, may show business activity in the world’s largest economy continuing a rebound that started in May.

While euro-area PMI gauges earlier fueled a risk-on mood, they also underlined some of the pressures that a long and slow recovery would impose on companies struggling with weak demand.

Anthony Fauci, the U.S.’s top infectious-disease doctor, warned Tuesday that the coronavirus isn’t taking a summer break, judging from its persistent spread in the U.S. Sun Belt. A German state locked down a municipality where 1,553 workers tested positive at a single meat factory.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 gained 0.8% as of 10:17 a.m. EDT.

– The Nasdaq 100 added 0.5%.

– The Euro Stoxx 600 Index climbed 1.2%.

– MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.4%.

– The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 106.99 per dollar.

– The euro gained 0.5% to $1.1315.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys was little changed at 0.72% after dropping as much as three basis points earlier.

– Germany’s 10-year yield climbed three basis points to -0.41%

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2% to $41.54 a barrel.

– Gold gained 0.2% to $1,758 an ounce.

Schwarzman sees ‘big V’ economic rebound in next few months #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Schwarzman sees ‘big V’ economic rebound in next few months

Econ

Jun 23. 2020

By Syndication The Washington Post, Bloomberg · Heather Perlberg, Hema Parmar 

Steve Schwarzman, chief executive officer of Blackstone Group, said the economy is likely to benefit from a V-type recovery in the next few months.

“You’ll see a big V in terms of the economy going up for the next few months because it’s been closed,” Schwarzman, co-founder of the world’s biggest alternative asset management firm, said Monday in an interview during the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual event.

While markets are benefiting from both liquidity and optimism that the coronavirus crisis can eventually be contained, Schwarzman said the economy will “take quite a while before we sync up and get back to 2019 levels.”

Also at the event, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said he believes the recovery will begin by year-end and a normalization of the economy in the second half of 2021. Ackman said he sees gradual improvement on all fronts with so many resources poured into the health-care crisis.

The spread of the pandemic seized up credit markets and put an end to Wall Street’s longest-ever bull market earlier this year. The damage pushed the Federal Reserve to flood the markets with trillions of dollars in stimulus, which, combined with the easing of lockdown restrictions and hopes for a fast economic recovery, have helped the S&P 500 index rally almost 40% since its March low.

Blackstone has been “aggressively” looking to put some of its $150 billion in dry powder to use, Schwarzman said in April. He also said that while all companies, including Blackstone, will be affected by the pandemic, the pain will be temporary, citing the U.S. government’s stimulus efforts. The New York-based firm saw asset values across most of its business segments plunge in the first quarter because of the economic fallout from the virus, but its long-term focus should put it in a position to hang on to companies as they regain strength.

China will continue to grow at double or triple the rate of developed countries, Schwarzman said at Monday’s event. It could internalize its markets and depend less on exports, he said.

Schwarzman has strong ties to China. He started a school in the country and has traveled there frequently — at times functioning as an intermediary between the Washington and Beijing governments. The billionaire has also previously advised President Donald Trump and was present in the White House when he announced the first part of the China-U.S. trade deal.

China’s rising debt, residential real estate issues and uneconomic state-owned large cap companies have put a damper on Chinese equity returns for the past decade, legendary short-seller Jim Chanos said at Bloomberg’s virtual conference.

“It’s just not been, in aggregate, a great place for Western investors to put their money,” he said.

The Kynikos Associates founder also said that U.S.-based casino operators in Macau, such as Wynn Resorts or Las Vegas Sands, have an additional risk that’s not being priced in to their shares, as their concession renegotiations are coming up.

“The majority of their cash flows of Wynn comes from the Macau concession and if that were to be negotiated downwards, which is a real possibility, particularly if the trade wars continue, that would have a material effect on their cash flow and profit,” he said.

Chanos also said that the current low-interest-rate environment is providing “easy money,” helping companies “that are not playing by the rules to keep the game going for a while.”

He said he’s giving a lecture Tuesday on 300 years of financial fraud, and one of his key themes is that the fraud cycle follows the business and financial cycle with a lag. As markets roar on, people drop their sense of disbelief and begin to believe things that are actually too good to be true, he said. That’s why companies with questionable business models still get funded, he said.

It’s not until the markets “turn down that people get a lot more conservative with their money and begin to question business models,” Chanos said. “People don’t realize they are being defrauded until they want their money back. So I think that wave of realization is still ahead of us.”