#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Krungsri Research reckons Thai economy will only fully recover in last quarter of 2022

Econ

Jun 18. 2020Dr Somprawin Manprasert

By THE NATION

Krungsri Research expects the Thai economy to make a U-shaped recovery and return to pre-outbreak levels by the fourth quarter of 2022, though sectors affected by the spread of Covid-19 will recover at different times.

Dr Somprawin Manprasert, chief economist and head of Krungsri Research, said: “The Covid-19 outbreak has unprecedently affected the Thai economy. Thus, Krungsri Research is keeping its 2020 GDP projection unchanged at 5 per cent contraction and it is likely that the economy will gradually recover, while business sectors will have to adapt to new trends, which will be clearer in 2021.”

The Covid-19 outbreak has affected not just current economic activities, but also those that are medium- and long-term, in four ways: businesses forced to close due to lockdown measures, a drop in overall demand, disruption in global supply chains and a change in consumer behaviour.

These four points will determine a path of sectoral recovery. The sectors hit by the lockdown measures will have severely contracted, but they will also recover faster than other sectors.

However, sectors affected by the change in consumer behaviour will take a longer time to recover, so therefore, relief measures and business adjustments will be different and vary depend on each sector’s path of recovery.

As per Krungsri Research’s analysis of the impact Covid-19 has had on the business sector, 26 out of 60 sectors or 46 per cent are severely affected by the outbreak. Meanwhile, 24 sectors are moderately hit, while 10 are only suffering mild impacts.

The research house expects the health and food-manufacturing sectors to return to the pre-outbreak level by 2021, while the retail, wholesale, electricity and natural gas sectors that have been severely affected, may rebound relatively faster than other business sectors.

However, sectors affected by the change in demand, such as airlines and hospitality industry, will take a longer time to recover.

Tourism is one of the key sectors to have sustained the largest damage from the outbreak, while sectors related to public gatherings, like concerts, performances or matches, will also take a longer time to recover.

“Most sectors in Thailand are unlikely to recover to the pre-crisis state by 2021, though Thailand has a strong health-management sector, which has allowed us to efficiently control the outbreak in the first half of 2020.

“However, the outbreak has severely affected the global economy and led to a change in daily behaviour. Hence, we expect the global economy to bottom out in the second quarter, though negative consequences will last into the next year,” Somprawin said.

“Funds from the government’s relief measures will be released in the system in the third quarter, which will help shore up the economy.

“However, it remains to be seen whether assistance measures will be effective enough to revive the economy and able to create jobs that will generate more money to circulate in the economy and ensure that households have sufficient income to repay their debts thus mitigating risks in the financial sector, and whether there are appropriate measures to help each sector get back on the path to recovery,” he added.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Thailand on road to becoming cashless society: Visa study

Econ

Jun 18. 2020

By The Nation

Almost eight in 10 Thais (79 per cent) are using contactless payments more often than they did two years ago, according to a study released by Visa on Thursday (June 18).

The study, which tracks consumer payments habits across Southeast Asia, also revealed three in four Thai respondents who are not using contactless payments today, are interested in doing so in the future.

Suripong Tantiyanon, country manager for Visa Thailand, said: “It is heartening to see Thai consumers embracing new payment technologies, especially the use of contactless cards for payments. The shift in behaviour and the rise in confidence can be attributed to an industry effort to educate the general public on the benefits of contactless and an increase acceptance points. Contactless payments are still in the early stages of adoption in Thailand, but we are optimistic for their growth due to the speed, convenience, security and global acceptance.”

Top reasons consumers cited for adopting contactless payments are: not needing to carry cash (68 per cent), innovative way to pay (58 per cent), and faster payment (55 per cent).

On frequency of contactless payments, 82 per cent of respondents said they used cards at least once a week.

Top places for contactless card payments were overseas destinations (17 per cent), supermarkets (12 per cent), and retail shops (11 per cent).

The study also delved into demographics: While Gen Y is more likely to use contactless cards (55 per cent), use among older Gen X users was significant (45 per cent). The younger generation uses contactless payments more frequently, with three in 10 making payments more than four times a week, while only one in five Gen X users will make the same number of payments.

State of the Nation: Cashless Society

Based on the findings, over two in five respondents (43 per cent) said they carry less cash now than they did two years ago. 

Increasingly, Thai consumers are confident in going cashless, said Visa. Two in five (38 per cent) believe they can last more than a month without cash. In contrast, nearly six in 10 (58 per cent) believe they could only get by for 24 hours without paying by cash.

When asked how long it would take for Thailand to become a cashless nation, 40 per cent of the people surveyed believe it will take between two to five years, 27 per cent thought it would take between six to 10 years, and 7 per cent believe it could happen next year.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Worries over second wave of Covid-19, cut in bank interest rates hammer SET

Econ

Jun 18. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index dropped 3.20 points or 0.23 per cent, closing at 1,372.98 today (June 18), with transactions amounting to a total of Bt70.282 billion with an index high of 1,377.39 and a low of 1,358.11.

In the morning session, a stock analyst at Krungsri Securities said he expected the index to fall to between 1,360 and 1,365 due to uncertainty over a second wave of Covid-19 infections as the subsequent slowdown of economy.

“Investors are worried that the US and China will issue lockdown measures to curb the contagion again after the number of new cases in the US rose to 26,000, while China has reintroduced emergency,” the analyst said.

“The stocks of banks and financial institutions will be under pressure after the Bank of Thailand told them to cut their interest rate by 2 to 4 per cent from July 1 to the end of the year in order to ease people’s suffering from the Covid-19 fallout.”

The top 10 stocks with the highest trade values today were SUPER, AOT, KBANK, SAWAD, CPF, MINT, KTC, BAM, DIF, and TASCO.

As of 4.30pm, crude oil rose by US$0.25 or 0.66 per cent to $38.21 per barrel, while gold dropped by $10.40 or 0.60 per cent to $1,746.00 per ounce.

Changes in other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 22,355.46, down 100.30 points, or 0.45 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 2,939.32, up 3.44 points, or 0.12 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 11,494.56, up 73.72 points, or 0.65 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,464.94, down 16.47 points, or 0.067 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,133.48, down 7.57 points, or 0.35 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 11,548.33, up 13.74 points, or 0.12 per cent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

ADB expects Thai economy to shrink by 6.5%

Econ

Jun 18. 2020

By The Nation

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has downgraded its forecast for the Thai economy to a 6.5 per cent contraction due to the severe impact of Covid-19.

In April, the ADB predicted the Thai economy would sink 4.8 per cent this year. 

The new forecast makes Thailand the worst-hit economy among Asean countries, followed by Singapore’s 6 per cent contraction, while Vietnam is predicted to be the top performer with 4.1 per cent expansion.

ADB also paints a gloomy future for developing countries in Asia.

Developing Asia will barely grow in 2020 as Covid-19 containment measures hamper economic activity and weaken external demand, according to a new set of ADB forecasts released on Thursday (June 18).

IADB forecasts growth of 0.1 per cent for the region in 2020, down from the 2.2 per cent forecast in April and marking the slowest growth for the region since 1961. 

Growth in 2021 is expected to rise to 6.2 per cent, as forecast in April. Gross domestic product (GDP) levels in 2021 would remain below what had been envisioned and below pre-crisis trends.

Excluding Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, developing Asia is forecast to grow 0.4 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2021.

“Economies in Asia and the Pacific will continue to feel the blow of the Covid-19 pandemic this year even as lockdowns are slowly eased and select economic activities restart in a ‘new normal’ scenario,” said ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “While we see a higher growth outlook for the region in 2021, this is mainly due to weak numbers this year, and this will not be a V-shaped recovery. Governments should undertake policy measures to reduce the negative impact of Covid-19 and ensure that no further waves of outbreaks occur.”

Downside risks include multiple outbreak waves in the coming period and sovereign debt and financial crises cannot be ruled out, said the bank. It also identified risk of renewed escalation in trade tensions between the United States and China.

East Asia is forecast to grow 1.3 per cent in 2020 – the only subregion to experience growth this year – while growth in 2021 would recover to 6.8 per cent. Growth in China is forecast at 1.8 per cent this year and 7.4 per cent in 2021, compared to the April estimates of 2.3 and 7.3 per cent.

Hit hard by Covid-19, South Asia is forecast to contract by 3 per cent in 2020, compared to 4.1 per cent growth predicted in April. Growth prospects for 2021 are revised down to 4.9 per cent from 6.0 per cent. India’s economy is forecast to contract by 4 per cent in fiscal year 2020, ending on March 31, 2021, before growing 5 per cent in FY2021.

Economic activity in Southeast Asia is expected to contract by 2.7 per cent this year before growing by 5.2 per cent in 2021. Contractions are forecast in key economies as containment measures affect domestic consumption and investment, including Indonesia (-1.0 per cent), the Philippines (-3.8), and Thailand (-6.5). Vietnam is forecast to grow 4.1 per cent in 2020. While that is 0.7 percentage points lower than ADB’s April estimates, it is the fastest growth expected in Southeast Asia.

Central Asia’s economic activity is expected to contract by 0.5 per cent compared to the 2.8 per cent growth forecast in April due to trade disruptions and low oil prices. Growth is forecast to recover to 4.2 per cent in 2021.

Restricted trade flows and declining tourism numbers have dampened economic outlook for the Pacific subregion. The subregional economy is forecast to contract by 4.3 per cent in 2020 before rising to 1.6 per cent growth in 2021.

Inflation for developing Asia is forecast at 2.9 per cent in 2020, down from a forecast of 3.2 per cent in April, reflecting depressed demand and lower oil prices. In 2021, inflation is expected to ease to 2.4 per cent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Strengthening dollar pressures gold price

Econ

Jun 18. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold rose by Bt50 per baht weight in morning trade on Thursday (June 18), the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.26am, buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,350 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,450, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt24,892.72 and Bt25,950, respectively.

At close on Wednesday (June 17), buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,300 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,400, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt24,847.24 and Bt25,900, respectively.

The Gold Spot Index price on Thursday morning moved to around US$1,725 (Bt53,708) per ounce after the price dropped slightly by 90 cent to $1735.6 per ounce at close on Wednesday.

The gold price was pressured by the strengthening dollar, while investors reduced gold in their assets after European stock indices rose.

The price in the Hong Kong gold market rose by HK$40 to $15,960 (Bt64,126) per tael this morning.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET slides amid concerns over economic impact from second wave of Covid-19

Econ

Jun 18. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index dropped by 13.72 points, or 1.00 per cent, to 1,362.46 on Thursday morning (June 18).

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fall to between 1,360 and 1,365 due to uncertainty following the second wave of Covid-19 cases, as it would slowdown the economy.

“Investors are worried that the US and China would issue lockdown measures to contain the spread of Covid-19 again after the number of new cases in the US rose to 26,000, while China has raised its emergency level back,” the analyst said.

“In addition, bank and financial stocks would be under pressure after the Bank of Thailand asked financial institutions to cut interest rate by 2-4 per cent, starting from July 1 until the end of this year in order to relieve people’s suffering from the Covid-19 impact.”

He recommended investors to buy:

▪ Stocks whose second-quarter performance will improve, such as CKP, TASCO, STA, and RS.

▪ Defensive stocks, such as INTUCH, TTW, and DIF.

▪ Marine shipping stock that benefit from rising freight rate, such as PSL, TTA, AMA, and PRM.

The SET Index rose by 9 points on Wednesday, or 0.66 per cent, closing at 1,376. Total transactions amounted to Bt71.5 billion.

Net sale by foreign investors amounted to Bt1.861 billion in stocks, while net buy of bonds was Bt11.492 billion. There were 11,020 net short TFEX SET50 contracts.