FedEx to curb duplicate deliveries in e-commerce efficiency push #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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FedEx to curb duplicate deliveries in e-commerce efficiency push

Feb 08. 2020
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Thomas Black · BUSINESS 
FedEx is revamping its operations to hand off some deliveries from its overnight division to its separately-run ground business, in a new effort to wring more profit from surging e-commerce.

The arrangement is part of Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith’s strategy to tackle the flood of residential packages from online shopping, which can be more expensive to handle because fewer are left at each stop. By having Express hand off less time-sensitive parcels to its ground unit for final delivery, the company will reduce cases in which a driver from both units visit the same customer.

“We are duplicating efforts and diluting our delivery density, including the number of packages delivered at each stop,” Chief Operating Officer Raj Subramaniam said in a letter to employees. “This move is an effort to make costly last-mile deliveries more efficient.”

In the last year, FedEx has rolled out several changes, including seven-day deliveries, later pickup deadlines and more capacity to handle large packages, to capture more e-commerce business and stem a drop in profit margins. FedEx predicts that 90% of growth in the parcel industry from 2018 through 2026 will come from e-commerce.

Unlike competitors United Parcel Service Inc. and Amazon.com Inc., FedEx operates two separate networks for overnight and ground deliveries. Its ground business uses contractors who hire their own employees to operate delivery vehicles. The more packages delivered to the same place by one driver, the lower the per-parcel delivery cost will be.

FedEx will start the initiative in Greensboro, North Carolina, with Express products that have less strict delivery deadlines, such as standard overnight and second-day service. The plan is to roll it out to other U.S. cities in phases, FedEx said in a statement.

“We continue to flex our network to stay ahead of e-commerce growth, and that includes adjustments to better handle the demand for residential deliveries while lowering our cost to serve,” Subramaniam said in the statement.

L’Oreal expects to outperform rivals amid temporary virus hit #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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L’Oreal expects to outperform rivals amid temporary virus hit

Feb 08. 2020
L'Oreal CEO Jean-Paul Agon in Paris on Jan. 14, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Christophe Morin.

L’Oreal CEO Jean-Paul Agon in Paris on Jan. 14, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Christophe Morin.
By Bloomberg · Eric Pfanner, Deirdre Hipwell

L’Oreal expects demand for high-end beauty products to help it outperform beauty rivals, even as the coronavirus outbreak causes a temporary slowdown in the key market of China, Chief Executive Officer Jean-Paul Agon said.

The shares rose as much as 4% to a record Friday in Paris after the company reported its highest operating margin ever and the strongest revenue growth in more than a decade, driven by Asia.

“It’s all about sales growth,” RBC analyst James Edwardes Jones wrote. Earnings per share missed the consensus, “but who cares?”

The French owner of the Lancome and Kiehl’s brands said late Thursday it’s confident demand in China will bounce back quickly once the epidemic eases. Agon said L’Oreal will beat rivals again this year in terms of sales and profit growth.

Estee Lauder Cos. also said Thursday it expects a short-term hit from the coronavirus, which has killed more than 600 people and prompted travel restrictions.

After China decided to extend the Lunar New Year holiday, all of L’Oreal’s offices and factories are closed in China until Monday.

The company “had a good January in China,” Agon said, saying it’s too early to assess the impact of the outbreak. L’Oreal’s strength in e-commerce in that market will help the company deal with the crisis, he said.

“The good news is we have 12,000 employees in China and I am in communication every day with the general manager in China and no one in our teams is sick,” the CEO said.

L’Oreal’s sales have been fueled in recent quarters by Chinese consumers splashing out on luxury skincare products and makeup, which has made up for a sluggish performance by the company’s mainstream brands like Maybelline in the U.S. The cosmetics maker said its performance for China’s Singles Day holiday in November was exceptional.

The beauty market maintained its pace last year, growing about 5%, driven in large part by online sales of beauty products and consumers buying more expensive products, CEO Agon said on a call with analysts.

China was the main driver of growth in Asia Pacific, which has become L’Oreal’s largest region. Sales rose 18% in both Indonesia and Vietnam, while the Philippines and South Korea also had double-digit growth.

“It was the best year for a very long time in all the countries of Asia,” Agon said. Although there will be an impact from the virus, the CEO said the company’s experience with previous virus outbreaks, shows that after a period of disturbance, consumption “resumes stronger than ever.”

The company has nine brands with annual revenue exceeding 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion), with La Roche Posay being the latest to reach that level.

BlackRock cuts stake in U.S. coal giant after climate pledge #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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BlackRock cuts stake in U.S. coal giant after climate pledge

Feb 08. 2020
By Bloomberg · Will Wade · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 
Less than a month after vowing to unwind its investments in coal, BlackRock Inc. has cut its stake in the biggest U.S. miner.

The world’s largest asset manager now has about 4.87 million shares of Peabody Energy Corp., a 5% stake, according to a regulatory filing Friday. That’s down 14% from the end of December, making it the miner’s sixth-largest holder, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The move follows BlackRock’s announcement in January that it would put climate change at the heart of its strategy, a plan that includes exiting both debt and equity investments in thermal coal companies in its $1.8 trillion active portfolios. Financial companies around the world are facing increasing pressure to back away from the dirtiest fossil fuel to help fight global warming.

Climate is now a “defining factor” for the global economy, BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink told shareholders in his annual letter.

A BlackRock spokesman did not have an immediate comment.

On Wednesday, Peabody’s biggest shareholder — activist investor Elliott Management Corp. — moved to increase control over the mining company. Peabody’s shares are down more than 70% in the past year as the coal industry faces waning demand from utilities and slumping prices.

Virus scare empties malls on world’s priciest shopping strip #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30381795?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

Virus scare empties malls on world’s priciest shopping strip

Feb 07. 2020
People wearing surgical mask at the Time Square in Causeway Bay in Hong Kong on Feb. 6, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Ivan Abreu.

People wearing surgical mask at the Time Square in Causeway Bay in Hong Kong on Feb. 6, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Ivan Abreu.
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Shawna Kwan · BUSINESS, WORLD, RETAIL

In an almost deserted mall, the few shoppers hurry past wearing face masks. In the luxury stores, sales assistants, also in masks, outnumber customers — if they have any at all. To pass the time, staff chat with each other or play with their phones.

This isn’t a scene from some dystopian movie. Instead, it’s Tuesday afternoon in Hong Kong’s usually bustling Times Square, a 17-floor mega-mall in the heart of Causeway Bay, home to the world’s most-expensive retail strip.

The stylish displays of Gucci and Louis Vuitton advertisements usually compete for the attention of wealthy Chinese tourists, who until early last year swarmed the city for quick shopping expeditions. Now, no more.

Already reeling from months of anti-government protests that at times broke into pitched street battles between demonstrators and police — scaring off tourists — the outbreak of coronavirus has dealt a second, crippling blow to retailers.

Mainland Chinese visitors, who used to come to Hong Kong to buy everything from luxury watches to discount cosmetics, plunged 53% in December from a year earlier. That’s set to fall even further after the government said it will start to quarantine people arriving from across the border.

On top of that, local residents are now reluctant to go out amid fears of catching the deadly virus. The number of confirmed cases in the city climbed to 24 as of Friday, with some of those likely to have been infected locally.

“Many retailers are saying it’s a disaster,” said Nicholas Bradstreet, managing director of leasing at Savills. “In the last 10 days, their sales have been down 70% to 80% week-on-week. There’s very little traffic into the shops” particularly in key retail districts like Central, Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui, he added.

Times Square fronts Russell Street, where at $28,713 per-square-meter a year, retail rents top salubrious addresses like New York’s Upper 5th Avenue ($23,549) and the Champs Elysee ($15,473), according to Cushman & Wakefield.

The strip is usually thronged by thousands of shoppers hitting upmarket stores like Burberry, La Perla and Audemars Piguet. Not this day though. Two employees at an Omega boutique stare into space as pedestrians walk by without a glance at the watches on display.

Further down the street sits an empty Prada store. The high-end Italian fashion retailer quit its HK$9 million ($1.2 million) per month lease at the site four months early, according to the Hong Kong Economic Journal.

“Causeway Bay is very quiet now. It used to have a lot of traffic,” said Wong, a salesperson at a fashion boutique in a mall near Lockhart Road who declined to give her first name because she isn’t allowed to talk to the media. “With the scarcity of face masks, people would rather not go out at all.”

Retail sales plunged 19% in December, the 11th straight monthly decline. The slump in consumer spending has helped drive the economy into recession for the first time in a decade.

The retail downturn is also putting the squeeze on landlords. Rents in Causeway Bay dropped 8.5% in the fourth quarter versus the previous three months, resulting in a full-year decline of 14%, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

Mall owners including Times Square’s Wharf Real Estate Investment Co. will face pressure to offer rent concessions, according to Phillip Zhong, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar Investment Management Asia. Wharf’s rental income will fall about 2% this year, Zhong estimates.

The property company’s shares have slumped 14.6% since Jan. 20, when the virus began to spread more broadly.

Shares of other mall owners have also suffered. Link REIT, the city’s biggest mall owner, is down 6.1% while Hysan Development Co., which owns retail and office space throughout Causeway Bay, has dropped 5.2%.

Singapore-based Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust, whose Festival Walk mall was trashed during protests last year, has fallen about 5%.

The only retailers in demand at the moment are drug stores. On Lockhart Road, just a 10-minute walk from Times Square, shoppers queue to snap up face masks and hand sanitizer, which are now in short supply across the city.

Sky Fan, who runs a neighboring electronics-gadget store, can only look on in envy. The coronavirus outbreak has taken a bigger toll on spending than the protests did, he said, with sales after Lunar New Year down about 50%.

“You can see that many people outside are just hunting for masks and cleaning products,” Fan said.

Credit Suisse CEO Thiam ousted after losing boardroom battle #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

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Credit Suisse CEO Thiam ousted after losing boardroom battle

Feb 07. 2020
An Oct. 21, 2015 file photo shows Tidjane Thiam, then chief executive officer of Credit Suisse Group (left) with Urs Rohner, Credit Suisse chairman, in Zurich, Switzerland. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Alessandro Della Bella.

An Oct. 21, 2015 file photo shows Tidjane Thiam, then chief executive officer of Credit Suisse Group (left) with Urs Rohner, Credit Suisse chairman, in Zurich, Switzerland. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Alessandro Della Bella.
By Syndication Washington Post,  Bloomberg · Dale Crofts

Tidjane Thiam was ousted as chief executive officer of Credit Suisse Group, losing a boardroom showdown with the chairman in the wake of a tabloid scandal that unnerved the Swiss establishment.

The 13 directors rebuffed appeals from major shareholders in the U.S. and U.K. to back Thiam and instead closed ranks behind Chairman Urs Rohner, giving him their “unanimous” support, according to a statement Friday. They picked Thomas Gottstein, a 20-year Credit Suisse veteran, as the bank’s first Swiss-born CEO in almost two decades.

Credit Suisse shares dropped as much as 5.1%, reflecting doubts about strategy under the new boss.

The drama represents the culmination of a conflict between the CEO and Rohner that escalated after it emerged that top management hired detectives to follow former executive Iqbal Khan. While Thiam, 57, was cleared in an internal probe and a close lieutenant was blamed, the bank has struggled to move beyond the scandal. Swiss regulators have launched their own inquiry, raising questions about the culture at the top of the firm.

Top shareholders including Harris Associates, Silchester International Investors and Eminence Capital had warned the board of directors before Thursday’s meeting that if there was a choice to be made, Rohner should be the one to go. They urged the chairman to back Thiam or step down. Rohner’s backers saw the high-profile demands as an unseemly gambit, according to a person familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, the chairman lined up support behind the scenes from other shareholders for the board, including Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, the person said.

“Tidjane has made an enormous contribution to Credit Suisse since he joined us in 2015,” Rohner said in the statement. “It is to his credit that Credit Suisse is standing on a very solid foundation and has returned successfully to profit.”

For Thiam, who was born in Ivory Coast and previously held top roles at Aviva and Prudential before Rohner hired him in 2015, the departure blemishes a record that includes a pivot away from volatile trading and toward the more stable business of catering to affluent clients. While the shares lost about half of their value during his tenure, he was applauded for stabilizing the franchise.

The troubles started in September when Swiss media reported Khan, who had left for crosstown rival UBS Group, confronted his pursuers in downtown Zurich. Embarrassing disclosures followed, including accounts of the personal feud between Thiam and Khan and the suicide of a contractor, rattling business circles in a city that normally enjoys a reputation for quiet professionalism.

An internal probe concluded Thiam didn’t know about the spying, and that Chief Operating Officer Pierre-Olivier Bouee was responsible. Bouee was fired late last year. It later came out that human resources chief Peter Goerke was also followed, which the bank also blamed on Bouee.

“I had no knowledge of the observation of two former colleagues,” Thiam said in the Friday statement. “It undoubtedly disturbed Credit Suisse and caused anxiety and hurt. I regret that this happened and it should never have taken place.”

A third spying case, involving a former Credit Suisse employee in the U.S., was also probed and rejected by the bank. However, lawyers for Credit Suisse still looked into the matter as recently as last week, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.

Gottstein is CEO of Credit Suisse Switzerland and has been in the banking industry for 30 years, including more than 20 at Credit Suisse. His experience includes 13 years in investment banking in London, as well as in private banking.

Thiam’s resignation after prominent overseas shareholders had backed him marks a victory for the Swiss establishment. A former lawyer who has been chairman of Credit Suisse for a decade, Rohner’s leadership “during this turbulent time” was praised by lead independent director Severin Schwan, CEO of Swiss pharmaceuticals company Roche Holding.

The spying scandal underscores the risk of reputational damage to companies if their top executives are seen as running afoul of ethical standards. Barclays CEO Jes Staley survived a yearlong regulatory probe into his attempts to unmask a whistle-blower, escaping with a fine in 2018. The British lender reprimanded Staley after discovering he had twice tried to identify a whistle-blower who had raised concerns about his recruitment of a former colleague.

It’s unclear what impact Thiam’s surprise departure will have on the investigation by Swiss banking regulator Finma into the scandal. Finma said in December that it had appointed an independent auditor to investigate the case and that such probes typically take several months. No one at the regulator was immediately available on Friday morning to comment on the news.

Thiam took over at Credit Suisse in mid-2015 and quickly outlined a plan to slash costs, boost profitability and increase his firm’s financial strength. A former politician and insurance executive, he had no direct experience in investment banking, a business that became one of his biggest headaches. He was blindsided by losses at the trading unit in 2016, pushing him to accelerate cost cuts.

While the cost reductions were successful, the bank initially saw revenue fall under his watch, and the CEO had to tap investors for fresh capital. The measures started to pay off last year as earnings bucked the gloom facing other European banks and wealthy clients added new money. But by December, Thiam cut a profitability target and warned of a loss at the investment banking and capital markets business.

Educated in France at the elite Ecole Polytechnique, the francophone Thiam has spent a lifetime defying the odds. By his mid-20s, he was working in Paris for McKinsey & Co., the high temple of consulting. By his mid-30s, he was back in Ivory Coast — and under house arrest following a military coup. By his late-40s, he was in Britain, as the first black executive of a FTSE-100 company.

A trendy way to appeal to Oscar voters: Play up the ‘magic of the movies’ #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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A trendy way to appeal to Oscar voters: Play up the ‘magic of the movies’

Feb 07. 2020
Hopper is a managing editor at Ranker, and was previously an editor at Cracked and CollegeHumor. He has also contributed to The New Yorker and McSweeney's.

Hopper is a managing editor at Ranker, and was previously an editor at Cracked and CollegeHumor. He has also contributed to The New Yorker and McSweeney’s.
By OSCARS-HOPPER-COMMENT
Special to The Washington Post · Dan Hopper · OPINION

In “The Shape of Water,” the 2018 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture, an amphibian-man with demigod-like powers gets rescued from a government laboratory by a mute custodian named Elisa. During the rescue, one of Elisa’s companions murders an innocent security guard. The amphibian-man then proceeds to unflinchingly devour the pet cat of Elisa’s neighbor and later violently slashes the throat of his (by that point eminently deserving) human captor.

In the midst of the mayhem, the creature takes a moment to wander into an ornate movie theater and gazes achingly at a showing of the 1960 biblical epic “The Story of Ruth.” Elisa embraces him and they share a tender, wordless moment. This, we are meant to understand, is the power of cinema: a medium so universally moving, it can even stir the soul of even a cat-disembowling river-creature.

“The Shape of Water” offered a master class in the presentation of the most reliable running themes of Oscar-winning films over the past decade: a celebration of “the magic of movies” within the movies themselves. This year, Sony Pictures is running a “For Your Consideration” campaign for Best Picture nominee “Once Upon a Time . . . in Hollywood” that features stills from the film alongside the simple caption, “Because you love movies.”

Quentin Tarantino’s Best Picture entrant is unmistakably a heartfelt and lovingly crafted tribute to all things Classic Hollywood. It doesn’t simply shoehorn in a “movies can touch us” moment the way “Shape Of Water” does; rather, it re-creates a pivotal era for moviemaking, the 1960s, in painstaking visual detail. Yet that slogan is still a pretty blunt appeal to the heartstrings of Academy voters, one premised on the idea that voters absolutely love giving Oscars to films that expressly celebrate the joy and the power of the very medium they all work in.

The past decade offered a panoply of movies that successfully strummed the “magic of movies” chord. “The Artist,” from 2012, is a black-and-white silent film about Golden Era Hollywood struggling to embrace a new technology (just as today’s studios confront the Internet); it won the Best Picture Oscar that year. In the following year came “Argo,” which tells the true story of CIA operative Tony Mendez (played by Ben Affleck, who also directs) rescuing American hostages in Iran by having his team pose as a film crew.

The film is loaded with Hollywood in-jokes that industry people can performatively laugh at (Alan Arkin, playing movie producer Lester Siegel, tells Mendez, “You’re worried about the ayatollah? Try the WGA!” – a reference to anyone who’s been in, or had to deal with, the notoriously tough Writers Guild). In “Argo,” people working on a movie literally save lives – and it won the Best Picture Oscar in 2013.

“Birdman,” a film about an aging A-list movie actor seeking to make a truthful work of art, includes a scene in which the ex-megastar tells off a haughty theater critic on the grounds that she has never had to do real art. It won Best Picture in 2015.

There are many potential reasons for the uptick in – and Oscar love for – “movies are magic” films. For one, the Hollywood film establishment surely (and correctly) believes its way of life is under attack by streaming services, digital piracy, prestige television and the overall proliferation of non-cinematic media. Studios and film professionals have an understandable interest in consistently reminding consumers (and reassuring themselves) that watching movies in theaters with crowds of people is an essential, irreplaceable experience.

What’s more, at its core, the movie business is as cutthroat and capitalistic as any other for-profit endeavor, and its practitioners (many of whom are artists with a degree of moral consciousness about their craft) are very aware of this. Any reassurance that movies contain a unique sublimity that affects our culture in a positive way helps mitigate that guilt. But perhaps more than anything, Oscar voters are majority-white film professionals with an average age in the mid-60s. It’s a crapshoot whether a given story will personally resonate with their own life experiences, but it’s an absolute certainty that every single voter can relate to characters, stories and moments that celebrate the uniquely touching impact of movies.

To be sure, the “magic of movies” Oscar-hack doesn’t guarantee Best Picture glory. “La La Land” (2016) was a greatest-hits album of Hollywood-ness, a stylistic throwback to classic Hollywood musicals that was also literally about Hollywood, and it included lots of winky-but-not-too-hard-to-get in-jokes about Los Angeles (everyone at a party in the Hills drives a Prius, for example). It won the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, and Emma Stone won the Best Actress Oscar, but the film lost the Best Picture Oscar to “Moonlight” in an memorable ceremony snafu.

This year, “Once Upon a Time . . . in Hollywood” – whose film-infatuation feels earned – is the clear favorite in the “magic of movies” subgenre. Leonardo DiCaprio plays an actor who has been through the full Hollywood ringer and whose soul is invested in every take of every throwaway TV Western guest-spot he can wrangle; Brad Pitt’s character is a veteran stuntman who lives near a classic drive-in movie theater in Van Nuys; and Margot Robbie’s Sharon Tate character watches her own movie at a theater with intoxicating joy.

But don’t sleep on this year’s most blatant exploiter of the “movie magic” trope: “Joker.” In director Todd Phillips’s departure from his comedy roots, there’s a scene in which Gotham City’s elites dress up in tuxes and attend a showing of the 1936 Charlie Chaplin film “Modern Times.” These billionaires love this film, laughing and applauding at every half-century-old slapstick gag. Our protagonist, Arthur, sneaks into the screening and is transfixed: He stands up while the movie is playing and begins mimicking Chaplin’s physicality, later incorporating it into his swelling Joker persona.

The scene signals to the audience that the Joker character – and “Joker” the movie – are influenced by classic cinema: The loner villain is touched more by movies than by anything else in the cruel city around him. More importantly, we are meant to conclude by the association that this is a serious film, one that plays homage to – and takes its place alongside – great ones that preceded it.

The kinds of movies that come across as “Oscar bait” have evolved over the years. In the 1980s and ’90s, awards shows flung open their gates for three-hour epics in which crescendoing strings played as the main character died (think “Braveheart,” “Titanic” and 2000’s “Gladiator”), and A-list actors heroically pretended to struggle with disabilities (“Rain Man,” “My Left Foot,” “Forest Gump”). Such trends wax and wane, and those specific variants may yet reappear. But for now, the go-to move for the filmmaker with his eye on the major awards appears to be slipping in a scene or two self-referential movie love.

Such gestures often come across as simultaneously triumphant and defensive – surprisingly so, given that the film industry, for all of the disruption it faces, grossed $11.3 billion domestically last year and produced the second-highest grossing film ever, “Avengers: Endgame.”

The industry definitely isn’t going anywhere – although when we’re watching swamp monsters and spree-killing clowns gawk at the awesome power of movies, it sure feels like someone, somewhere, is worried it might be.

Fed warns virus poses ‘new risk’ to global growth, markets #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

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Fed warns virus poses ‘new risk’ to global growth, markets

Feb 08. 2020
The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington on Nov. 17, 2017. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Andrew Harrer.

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington on Nov. 17, 2017. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Andrew Harrer.
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Christopher Condon, Craig Torres

The Federal Reserve Board said that the coronavirus outbreak presented a “new risk” to the economic outlook for the U.S. and warned of disruptions in global markets.

“Because of the size of the Chinese economy, significant distress in China could spill over to U.S. and global markets through a retrenchment of risk appetite, U.S. dollar appreciation, and declines in trade and commodity prices,” the U.S. central bank wrote in its semi-annual report to Congress released on Friday in Washington. “The effects of the coronavirus in China have presented a new risk to the outlook.”

The coronavirus has claimed more than 600 lives since its outbreak in China. Some economists have started to mark down their first-quarter U.S. growth estimates as China’s economy is expected to slow due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economy and monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee on Feb. 11 and the Senate banking panel the following day. The Monetary Policy Report released Friday is aimed at informing the Congress of the Fed’s outlook and sense of risks to U.S. and global growth.

A special section on financial stability was more descriptive than the previous report on possible points of stress in some areas. The Fed said that low interest rates had elevated asset valuations, and it also pointed to risks in the corporate debt markets.

“The concentration of investment-grade debt at the lower end of the investment-grade spectrum creates the risk that adverse developments, such as a deterioration in economic activity, could lead to a sizable volume of bond downgrades to speculative-grade ratings,” the Fed said. “Such conditions could trigger investors to sell the downgraded bonds rapidly, increasing market illiquidity and causing outsized downward price pressures.”

The Fed also mentioned that volatility in repurchase agreement markets in September “highlighted the possibility for frictions in repo markets to spill over to other markets.”

U.S. central bankers kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged at their meeting last month after cutting three times in 2019. Forecasts released in December show that most of them expect to stay on hold through 2020, keeping the Fed on the sidelines during a U.S. presidential election year.

Powell told reporters on Jan. 29 that monetary policy is “well positioned” to support growth, labor markets and a return of inflation to the Fed’s 2% target.

On the domestic front, Labor Department data released earlier on Friday showed the U.S. jobs market remains durable. Payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 225,000 workers and average hourly earnings climbed 3.1% from a year earlier.

The report also devoted a section breaking down the slowdown of manufacturing in the U.S. in 2019. The Fed attributed the decline to a range of issues including international trade tensions, weak global growth, softer business investment, lower oil prices affecting drillers and the slowdown in production of Boeing Co.’s 737 Max airliner.

While the 2019 decline in manufacturing accounted directly for a 0.15% drop in gross domestic product, Fed economists estimated that number rises 0.5% when adding the impact on purchased inputs and downstream activities, like transport and marketing.

A poor 2019 also comes amid a long-run deterioration of manufacturing in the U.S. as a share of employment and GDP that goes back more than half a century and has continued this century. Factory output has grown just 0.5% a year since 2001, with only two of those years recording gains greater than 3.5%.

Markets wrap: U.S. stocks retreat after torrid run; bonds rise #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30381814?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

Markets wrap: U.S. stocks retreat after torrid run; bonds rise

Feb 08. 2020
By Syndication Washington Post,  Bloomberg · Claire Ballentine, Vildana Hajric 

U.S. equities limped into the weekend as renewed concern the coronavirus will slow global growth overshadowed fresh signs of a strong labor market. Treasuries jumped.

The S&P 500 index halted a four-day rally, but still notched its best week since June. The latest jobs report showed hiring stayed robust last month, bolstering optimism growth can persist. But stocks remained lower after reports of further infections, an increase in deaths and more quarantines.

The Federal Reserve warned the outbreak posed a “new risk” to the economy. The fallout for companies is starting to come into focus, with corporations such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. temporarily halting operations in China. Apple Inc.’s iPhone maker Foxconn told employees not to return to work when China’s extended break ends Monday.

The 10-year Treasury yield slumped below 1.6% and crude lost its grip on $51 a barrel.

“The market moved up so quickly over the last few days and I think papered over the continued risk associated with the coronavirus,” said Robin Anderson, senior global economist at Principal Global Investors. “There’s still a lot of unknowns out there.”

Australia’s dollar dropped to its lowest level in a decade with the fallout from the coronavirus hurting riskier assets. Equities pushed lower across most of Asia as news of further infections on a cruise ship off Japan offered another reminder that cases remain on the rise. Singapore boosted its disease response to the second-highest level, the same one for the SARS epidemic. Confirmed cases worldwide now total 31,432, having risen more than 3,000 in one day, while the death toll reached 638.

Meanwhile, the presidents of China and the U.S. reaffirmed their commitment to the implementation of a phase-one trade deal in a phone call Friday.

And these are the main moves in markets:

– – –

– The S&P 500 index decreased 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time.

– The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 index declined 0.3%.

– The MSCI AC Asia Pacific index fell 0.7%.

– – –

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index gained 0.2%.

– The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2896.

– The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0946.

– The Japanese yen strengthened 0.2% to 109.77 per dollar.

– – –

– The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell seven basis points to 1.57%.

– The two-year rate dropped to 1.4%

– Britain’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to 0.57%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield dipped two basis points to -0.39%.

– – –

– West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $50.42 a barrel.

– Gold futures added 0.3% to $1,574.20 an ounce.

– Copper fell 1.7% to $2.55 a pound.

Japan recession risks prompt forecasts of 2020 contraction #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30381806?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

Japan recession risks prompt forecasts of 2020 contraction

Feb 08. 2020
By Bloomberg · Yuko Takeo
Japan is in a recession now, and what’s more its economy is on track to shrink on an annual basis in 2020, according to some analysts factoring in the impact of the coronavirus outbreak and the latest disappointing data.

The effect of the virus is seen as a factor tipping the economy downward for a second quarter at the start of 2020, prompting economists to revise their forecasts this week. Figures out Friday showed household spending deteriorating, suggesting that the economy already contracted more than first thought at the end of last year.

Aberdeen Standard Investments economist Govinda Finn is among those taking a dim view for the whole year, not just in a worst-case scenario but in his baseline view. He now forecasts a contraction of 0.2% in 2020, though he pins more of the blame on policy than the virus. He says the government should have done more to support the economy from the blow of October’s sales tax hike and weak overseas demand.

“If the Ministry of Finance could learn one lesson from the Bank of Japan, it’s that expectations matter,” said Finn, who characterized Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s stimulus package as more of the same rather than a ramping up of spending. The effectiveness of stimulus is weaker if the government waits until the global economy is in recession before acting, he added.

Abe said earlier Friday he would tap budgeted reserves to put together emergency spending measures next week in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

Economists polled by Bloomberg in a survey released Friday estimate that the economy shrank an annualized 4% in the last quarter. Those forecasting a contraction in the first quarter and a recession are still a small minority, and the median forecast for 2020 is for 0.5% growth.

“The reality is the industrial cycle — if you look at the production data, it’s still poor. We’re not seeing a turnaround there,” said Finn. “Inventory levels, inventory shipment levels are high. There’s nothing in there that gives me any comfort.”

U.S. jobs top estimates with 225,000 gain, wages accelerate #ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30381805?utm_source=category&utm_medium=internal_referral

U.S. jobs top estimates with 225,000 gain, wages accelerate

Feb 08. 2020
By Syndication Washington Post, , Bloomberg · Reade Pickert
U.S. employers ramped up hiring in January and wage gains rebounded, providing fresh evidence of a durable jobs market that backs the Federal Reserve’s decision to stop cutting interest rates and hands President Donald Trump an early election-year boost.

Payrolls increased by 225,000 after an upwardly revised 147,000 gain in December, according to a Labor Department data Friday that topped all estimates of economists. The jobless rate edged up to 3.6%, still near a half-century low, while average hourly earnings climbed 3.1% from a year earlier.

The dollar maintained gains, yields on the 10-year Treasury were lower and U.S. stocks declined from a record high as investors remained focused on the potential economic fallout from the coronavirus that has now claimed more than 600 lives.

Annual revisions to historical data took some shine off one of Trump’s main bragging points, cutting the 2018 job gain to 2.31 million from 2.68 million. The 2017 and 2019 gains were about 2.1 million, meaning each year under Trump — while still strong — has been slightly slower than the 2.35 million rise in the final year of the Obama administration.

Despite the revisions, the report shows the economy has retained strength, which Trump has heralded as a key tenet of his re-election campaign and this week in his State of the Union address. The solid hiring defies expectations for a step down to a slower pace of job growth as businesses delay investment, and exceeded the 175,000 average monthly gain for 2019.

The pace also supports Fed policymakers’ view of the labor market as strong, and is more than sufficient to keep up with population growth. At the same time, Boeing’s halt on production of the troubled 737 Max airplane and fears of the coronavirus spreading are likely to weigh on the U.S. economy in coming months.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the prior month, slightly less than estimated but an acceleration from the December reading.

Payroll gains were broad-based and topped the median estimate for 165,000. Education and health services employment added 72,000, while transportation and warehousing rose by the most in a year.

“This is a steady-as-she-goes number,” Societe Generale U.S. Rates Strategy Head Subadra Rajappa said on Bloomberg Television. “Broadly speaking, this doesn’t really change the outlook on employment.”

The unexpected job strength also reflects robust gains in weather-sensitive sectors including construction, which climbed by 44,000 for the strongest growth in a year in an unseasonably warm month.

Weekly hours worked held at 34.3 hours for a third month, matching the lowest level for most of the past decade. Economists look to hours worked for early signs of labor market softening as companies often cut hours before laying off workers.

In a positive sign, the participation rate, or share of working-age people in the labor force, increased to the highest since 2013. For prime-age Americans, age 25 to 54, the rate climbed to an 11-year high.

Other highlights:

– The drop in payrolls for manufacturers was steeper than estimated, driven by a decrease in payrolls for motor vehicles and parts workers.

– Private employment, or hiring at companies, climbed by 206,000, topping estimates. Government payrolls climbed by 19,000 for the best gain since August.

– The U-6, or the underemployment rate, climbed to 6.9% from 6.7%. This measure includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and those who aren’t actively looking, therefore offering a more comprehensive view of the health of the labor market.