ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation
NATION ANALYSIS
FORMER prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s new media offensive against the junta has led to repercussions in politics.
Thaksin gave a series of separate interviews to international media outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Reuters and Al Jazeera within days.
For many observers, it was unusual for those back-to-back interviews to be publicised within the course of a few days. Also, each interview had consistent content.
Thaksin criticised the draft constitution and the junta’s handling of the economy. He also called on the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to engage in talks with him about the country’s political future.
Just days after Thaksin’s comments, his political ally, former PM Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, a former Army general who was once in a Thaksin proxy government, called on the NCPO to relinquish power and hold a general election this year. Chavalit reiterated that the junta must hold a general election this year and allow an elected government to run the country.
Then on Friday, Thaksin’s sister, ex-PM Yingluck Shinawatra, called for an election as soon as possible. “If you ask Thai people, I believe everyone wants to see a new election and a return of power to the people very soon,” she told reporters.
Thaksin’s latest move perplexed many observers, who wondered why he had done this now after having been silent for several months.
He called for talks with the junta. But given his weak bargaining power and questionable status, it is unlikely this is his main objective. His offer for talks was rejected right away by government figures, including Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.
Thaksin simply wanted to draw attention to his talks offer. His main goal is to make a return to the political ring at a time when his proxy, Yingluck, is in trouble. His younger sister is unlikely to return to politics any time soon, due to the rules in the new constitution.
The NCPO seems to be on the defensive now, suffering from a decline in popularity and increased discontent over rights violations, the draft constitution, and the weakening economy.
Thaksin and his allies in the Pheu Thai Party obviously are confident that they will win the next election, regardless of the rules or conditions in the charter.
The NCPO also seems to have such a belief. That is why the people in power are pushing for exceptions to certain provisions in the new constitution for up to five years after the charter takes effect.
Even if Thaksin’s allies win the next election, they will be faced with this question: “What’s next then?” The new charter is designed to weaken political parties. A post-election government will be unable to fully exercise its power, in the face of tough scrutiny measures.
Also, the new charter is likely to have mechanisms for the transitional period after the next election to ensure the NCPO’s intentions will continue for at least five years. A national strategy committee to be set up under a new law could be another cause for concern for the post-election government.
Thaksin seems to have sensed that the next election is no longer far off, given recent moves by political parties big and small.
Also, Prime Minister General Prayut has repeatedly maintained that the next election will take place no later than July next year.
Thaksin aims to gain the upper hand in the current political situation. But the people in power are unlikely to allow him to do so easily. They sure do not want their coup’s original objectives to be wasted.