Army commander-in-chief General Chalermchai Sitthisart, in his capacity as secretary to the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), has instructed the local peacekeeping forces to monitor the movements of “all groups involved” over the next month, until the verdict is issued, the source said yesterday.

The commanders of all four “army areas” in the main regions of the country have been assigned to make sure any suspicious movements are under their microscope, according to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

If the local peacekeeping forces, which were formed after the military coup in 2014, discovered any plan to mobilise large groups of people into Bangkok, they would need to persuade their leaders to cancel such a trip, the source said.

“The forces should try to explain that the justice process must be respected. There must be no attempt to pressure the court with large numbers of people. Nobody must be above the law,” the source said.

After months of a trial on a case against Yingluck, the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division on Political Office Holders on Friday scheduled August 25 for the reading of its verdict.

The case stemmed from the previous Pheu Thai Party-led government’s corruption-plagued rice-pledging scheme, which was estimated to have caused at least Bt500 billion in damage to the country.

Military officers have been dispatched to different areas of the country in an attempt to persuade Yingluck’s supporters not to come to Bangkok when the court issues its ruling, the source said yesterday. They are going to meet with local community leaders and administrators and ask them to “create a better understanding” among the local residents.

“We ask for cooperation. There should be no mobilisation of the masses, otherwise there could be unrest in the country,” the source added.

All the groups of people involved should respect any decision by the court, whatever the verdict will be, he said.

“It remains unclear now if people will be mobilised from the provinces into Bangkok. The NCPO is monitoring the situation. It will be clear when the [verdict] is nearer,” the source said.

“We believe that part of the supporters travel here because they love Khun Yingluck and want to offer her moral support. But if it is not really necessary, they should follow the news at home,” the source commented.

Hundreds of Yingluck’s supporters gathered at the high court last Friday during the last hearing of the case against her.

Some Democrat Party politicians claimed yesterday that many of the supporters travelled together in an arranged trip from the northeastern provinces of Ubon Ratchathani and Amnat Charoen.

A large number of Yingluck’s supporters are expected to show up at the court building again on August 25, when the verdict is scheduled to be read.

Meanwhile, Somchai Sawangkan, a member of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA), said yesterday that he has learned of a plot to incite riots in a bid to overthrow the government and the NCPO.

“In August, the political situation will be volatile. The rice-pledging scheme case is high stakes and has high pressure. Some people want to show support for their political party ahead of the next election,” Somchai said.

“They will try to bring down the government and the NCPO through riots. Hard-core groups that are their allies have clearly said that they want to wage a ‘people’s war’,” he added.

Somchai warned that such a plot could lead to unrest and further damage to the economy and the country as a whole.

He claimed to have “information” that people from the North, Northeast and certain provinces near Bangkok would be mobilised to gather in the capital on August 1 when Yingluck is to make the defence’s closing statement for the case, and again on the verdict-reading day of August 25.

“They will try to mobilise as many as 10,000 people” for the August 25 gathering, Somchai said.

The latest poem, the fifth by the premier, has touched upon the principle of Pracha Rath, initiated by his government to support the grassroots economy.

Maj-General Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the government’s spokesperson, said Prayut wished to see people – particularly those in farming areas –embrace the right approaches, especially the King’s science and Pracha Rath.

He urged them to ponder the principles and embrace them in their farm practices to sustain their living as well as the nation’s stability.

“Sometimes, it’s quite boring for us to keep telling people the same stories, and via verse, the stories might get more interesting somehow,” said Sansern, urging the public and young generations to disseminate the premier’s poems. This is not the first time that Prayut has written a poem for farmers. Early this month, he wrote a piece designed to cheer up farmers with such verses as, “You are strong, tolerant, and have high integrity worth respecting.”

The poem, “Farmers’ Soul Soothing Poem”, urged farmers to not lose their morale or leave their homes as the government has been trying to solve their problems with the Pracha Rath policy and trusted that this was the way to get them out of trouble.

Before this, Prayut penned poems for his officials, including the Cabinet, encouraging them to remain focused and work tirelessly for the people.

The poem urged them not to give up if they encountered struggles along the way when working for the people, and to use their wisdom instead to overcome problems.

Prayut continues to write despite the fact that he had earlier said he would “rather keep his mouth shut” after his first poems sparked a brief verbal tussle among established poets. The poets were split over the PM’s verse, and some appended new stanzas to his efforts.

Meanwhile, the local stock market is bracing for possible adverse impacts from the high-court verdict in the case against the ex-PM. The bourse’s management has assured that any effect on the financial markets will be short-term.

Nada Chunsom, dean of the School of Development Economics at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), said a guilty verdict in the legal case against Yingluck could adversely impact the next government’s policy on farm products.

Yingluck is accused of negligence for irregularities stemming from her government’s project. The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division on Political Office Holders is scheduled to read its verdict on August 25. Her former commerce minister and his deputy are among those indicted in another case also stemming from the project.

“I think the next government would be more careful on policy choices regarding the farm sector,” Nada said.

She noted that the next administration might |not opt for a large-scale populist policy similar to |the rice-pledging scheme, while a short-term market intervention may be still needed.

The cost of the Yingluck administration’s price-shoring scheme was estimated to be about Bt500 billion. The Pheu Thai Party has countered that it could be much lower had the current government smartly managed a rice auction from the government stockpile of 18 million tonnes.

Nada said that future policy might focus on farm insurance against weather factors such as flooding and drought rather than against volatility of market prices. The current government has laid out a 20-year strategy that emphasises fiscal discipline by future governments after the general election next year.

The academic, however, was cautious that the next elected government might need to take into account demand from their political constituents, and that no one knows how politics would play out.

Meanwhile, Stock Exchange of Thailand president Kesara Manchusree said yesterday that the Thai capital market was protected from any shock that might happen as a result of the verdict in Yingluck’s case.

Kesara said the stock market had been through many political upheavals in the past. Investors were now more mature and the stock market had tools to deal with the issue, she said.

Foreign investors viewed the Thai capital market as attractive for long-term investment. Regardless of the court outcome, rumours or speculation would have only a short-term impact on the market, she said.

The EC bill is the first of the organic laws to pass through the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) and the tripartite law review committee. Prior to the EC’s decision to petition the Constitutional Court, the EC bill was close to promulgation, pending only royal endorsement. The EC, however, made a last-ditch attempt to |get a ruling on the law’s constitutionality.

There are some six points in the bill that the EC has objected to, including the total reset of the current commission.

However, it has decided not to petition the reset question, as the optics of this could lead some people to conclude that it was fighting for the personal interests of EC members. Instead, said Election Commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn on Thursday, it will petition the court over the constitutionality of two controversial points.

The first concerns the removal of the EC’s authority to organise local elections. The second is the removal of the power of EC members to suspend elections if fraud is found.

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said yesterday that the EC’s petition would affect the process of royal endorsement of the government’s final |submission.

However, he added, it would be unlikely to affect the election road map. That’s because lawmakers have ensured sufficient time to enact the 10 organic laws required by the new charter, he said.

Earlier, at least 12 leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) had been sentenced to imprisonment in separate cases. Some of them are serving time in prison while others have appealed the court verdicts against them and have been released on bail.

The Supreme Court last Thursday sentenced Jatuporn, the UDD chairman and a key Pheu Thai Party politician, to a year in jail for defaming former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Shortly after the verdict was reported, his Facebook fan page posted Jatuporn’s photo with a message thanking “all the democracy lovers” for their support.

“Till we meet again,” said the message, which stated that Jatuporn was at the Bangkok Remand Prison.

This was the fourth time he has been put behind bars over the past decade. In 2007, he and some other red-shirt leaders were detained after they surrendered on charges of inciting public disorder and opted not to seek bail.

In 2011, a court cancelled bail for Jatuporn in a terrorism case after finding that he broke some of the conditions for temporary release. Last year, his bail was revoked again after another violation of bail conditions. He was released temporarily early this year due to health reasons and his “show of remorse”, according to court.

The UDD was first formed in 2006 to oppose the military coup earlier that year which overthrew the government of Thaksin Shinawatra. It later also opposed the post-coup government, but stopped protesting after the 2007 general elections when Thaksin’s proxy People’s Power Party won.

In 2009, after a Democrat-led government headed by Abhisit was formed, the red shirts held anti-government rallies in April, alleging that the coalition was formed undemocratically as one faction included defectors from Thaksin’s party.

Some red-shirt leaders claimed protesters were killed during clashes with security forces, but authorities dismissed the allegation. Jatuporn called Abhisit a “tyrant whose hands were stained with blood”, an accusation that led to the Democrat leader launching a defamation case against him and eventually the high court verdict last week.

The red shirts took to the streets once again in March 2010 – just over a week after the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Political Office Holders ordered that Bt46 billion in Thaksin’s assets be seized, on the grounds that he had made financial gain from abusing his power while in office.

For more than two months the street protests continued and, this time, deaths of protesters actually occurred. More than 90 people were killed and some 2,000 others were injured during the political unrest. In addition to many protesters, military and police officers, foreign journalists and local residents were among the fatalities.

During the two-year duration of the Abhisit government’s tenure, the red-shirt movement was at its peak, becoming a highly powerful political group and leading a controversial campaign to “overthrow the elite”.

At the Asean Summit in 2009, which Thailand hosted in Pattaya, UDD leaders led a large group of red-shirt protesters who stormed the meeting venue. The incident forced an embarrassed government to cancel the meeting involving leaders from all 10 Asean member countries and “dialogue partner” states.

Thirteen protesters, including nine red-shirt leaders, were each sentenced to four years in jail in connection with the incident. The Appeal Court in March rejected their requests for bail, resulting in them being sent to jail. However, they have appealed the imprisonment verdict in the Supreme Court.

When UDD secretary-general Nattawut Saikua visited Jatuporn at the Bangkok Remand Prison, he said that people involved in any fight would inevitably suffer from pain and wounds.

The red shirts movement would continue to be active, although its top leader “has lost his freedom today”, Nattawut said.

“The red shirts have suffered repeatedly. Today there has been more suffering for us. But the pains will power us to stay strong,” he added.

After being granted bail early this year, Jatuporn told the media that his life in detention was like getting ordained as a monk, with strict daily routines and schedules.

“Prison is a graveyard for living people. You need to make your everyday life happy,” he said.

And when he visited the red-shirt leaders jailed at a Chon Buri prison for the Asean Summit incident, Jatuporn said the UDD figures were well aware of their destiny after a decade of political fight.

“We have only two choices – death or jail,” he said.

Judging from their recent remarks after they and their colleagues were sent behind bars, it appears some key red-shirt leaders have conceded to their fate.

Addressing his weekly TV programme on Friday night, General Prayut said the country had faced a number of problems because of the absence of spirituality, which provides what he calls “a moral blanket” against ill practices.

The premier said he did not want to blame anyone, but was reminding everyone about this point so people would come to help one another and get out of this sticky situation.

Dharma-based democracy, he said, was something that people did not talk about much, but it was actually crucial because it is rational. Democracy without dharma, he said, would find no peace and stability. To achieve moral society, this principle should be taken into consideration. It was also the starting point for reconciliation, he said.

“I just want you to be thoughtful about the country a bit and have conscience enough to be able to think of some religious principles that we can apply to our present political problems,” he said.

The final public hearings to introduce the draft of the so-called social contract, and seek opinions on it, were held at four regional military barracks around the country from Monday to Thursday last week. Hundreds of people joined in, but the significance of that remains questionable.

First, seats were reserved mostly for those enlisted or invited. Most participants were civil servants called up by Interior agencies. Although NGO workers and political camps had been invited, it is unclear how many actually showed up at the forums.

Despite it being a top national agenda item, only one well-known figure, red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan, attended the seminar on Monday at the First Army Area command in Bangkok.

Of the two-hour long presentation by the military, less than 30 minutes were spent on the introduction of the draft social contract – the very highly anticipated end results of the reconciliation attempts that have been ongoing for the past six months. The rest of the time involved officers emphasising the military’s dedication to recreating national harmony and the inclusive, non-dictatorial approach they had adopted in the scheme.

The question-and-answer session after the presentation was broadly welcomed, as some dozen active citizens took to the stage and expressed their thoughts on every issue except those relevant to the topic of reconciliation. Each and every time a person finished making a point, the operating officers had to repeat and remind speakers to stay focused on national harmony before they finally gave in and called it off.

Despite the awkwardness, Jatuporn welcomed the harmony pact, showing his support and promising that the red shirts would not stand in the way.

The political-turned-charity group People’s Democratic Reform Foundation and the Democrat Party, too, gave way to the scheme and said they would provide full co-operation.

But the previously ruling Pheu Thai Party made an official announcement against the contract plan, saying it was problematic and would not be effective.

Political critic Sukhum Nualsakul pointed out that although key political groups said they would cooperate, this did not guarantee the scheme’s success.

Success would depend more on the draft’s content and its practice than what people said about it. If the contract could not result in changes, it would not mean anything, the critic said.

“Plus, I’m not sure about the stances of the political groups. I think it is understandable that they come in support of the contract. Opposing it will only make them look bad,” Sukhum remarked.

Ekachai Srivilas, director of Peace and Governance at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, too, said that the contract was “just a piece of paper”. There was so much left to do if harmony was really to be achieved, he said.

The scholar, who also sits on the junta-backed reconciliation committee, admitted that the contract remained the main goal of the whole harmonisation attempt. The committee currently had no further plan to put anything into practice to achieve concrete results, he said.

“They will have final meetings in the upcoming weeks. And I’ll see what comes next, if anything,” Ekachai said.

Another scholar, Chamnan Chanruang, thought the social contract was joke, saying the effort did not work from the beginning, and it was never going to.

“It will do nothing to create harmony. How are you supposed to unite people using a contract?” he asked.

Chamnan said the scheme was just another ritual. He cited its process, saying it had been selective and its clear purpose was to serve the 20-year national strategy. He referred to the two last points in the pact that asked all Thai people to support reform and the national strategy.

Reconciliation in other countries, the scholar pointed out, had been achieved rather through “transitional justice” that proposed, for instance, finding the truth and compensating those who had been affected by conflict. These aspects were nowhere to be found in the junta’s reconciliation scheme.

“So, I suggest that the junta learn about this transitional justice which has worked in many countries and try to apply it with our country,” Chamnan said.

Likewise, Chaturon Chaisang, a key Pheu Thai Party politician, said the NCPO had not been sincere in bringing about reconciliation, and had only used the scheme to show it had fulfilled the job it said it would do when seizing power three years ago.

The whole process, he told The Sunday Nation, was apparently another propaganda effort to show that it has attempted to create national harmony. But, in reality, it was a matter of setting up questions that they answer themselves, while ignoring the real problems and their causes.

Chaturon said the points addressed in the pact were good, but they were irrelevant to reconciliation.

“It is like to telling people to exercise or eat healthy. It is nice but irrelevant,” he said. “This social contract will be useless.”

To achieve harmony, Chaturon suggested the NCPO open up a stage for all sides to talk equally, and address the problems and the causes.

Most importantly, the NCPO must accept that it was part of the conflict, too, the veteran politician said.

The latest poem, the fifth by the premier, has touched upon the principle of Pracha Rath, initiated by his government to support the grassroots economy.

Maj-General Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the government’s spokesperson, said Prayut wished to see people – particularly those in farming areas –embrace the right approaches, especially the King’s science and Pracha Rath.

He urged them to ponder the principles and embrace them in their farm practices to sustain their living as well as the nation’s stability.

“Sometimes, it’s quite boring for us to keep telling people the same stories, and via verse, the stories might get more interesting somehow,” said Sansern, urging the public and young generations to disseminate the premier’s poems.

This is not the first time that Prayut has written a poem for farmers. Early this month, he wrote a piece designed to cheer up farmers with such verses as, “You are strong, tolerant, and have high integrity worth respecting.”

The poem, “Farmers’ Soul Soothing Poem”, urged farmers to not lose their morale or leave their homes as the government has been trying to solve their problems with the Pracha Rath policy and trusted that this was the way to get them out of trouble.

Before this, Prayut penned poems for his officials, including the Cabinet, encouraging them to remain focused and work tirelessly for the people.

The poem urged them not to give up if they encountered struggles along the way when working for the people, and to use their wisdom instead to overcome problems.

Prayut continues to write despite the fact that he had earlier said he would “rather keep his mouth shut” after his first poems sparked a brief verbal tussle among established poets. The poets were split over the PM’s verse, and some appended new stanzas to his efforts.

The EC bill is the first of the organic laws to pass through the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) and the tripartite law review committee. Prior to the EC’s decision to petition the Constitutional Court, the EC bill was close to promulgation, pending only royal endorsement. The EC, however, made a last-ditch attempt to get a ruling on the law’s constitutionality.

There are some six points in the bill that the EC has objected to, including the total reset of the current commission.

However, it has decided not to petition the reset question, as the optics of this could lead some people to conclude that it was fighting for the personal interests of EC members. Instead, said Election Commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn on Thursday, it will petition the court over the constitutionality of two controversial points.

The first concerns the removal of the EC’s authority to organise local elections. The second is the removal of the power of EC members to suspend elections if fraud is found.

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said yesterday that the EC’s petition would affect the process of royal endorsement of the government’s final submission.

However, he added, it would be unlikely to affect the election roadmap. That’s because lawmakers have ensured sufficient time to enact the 10 organic laws required by the new charter, he said.

Prayut said the country had faced a number of problems because of the absence of spirituality, which provides what he calls “a moral blanket” against ill practices.

The premier said he did not want to blame anyone, but was reminding everyone about this point so people would come to help one another and get out of this sticky situation.

Dharma-based democracy, he said, was something that people did not talk about much, but it was actually crucial because it’s based on rationale. Democracy without dharma, he said, would find no peace and stability. To achieve moral society, this principle should be taken into consideration. It was also the starting point for reconciliation, he said.

“I just want you to be thoughtful about the country a bit and have conscience enough to be able to think of some religious principles that we can apply to our present political problems,” he said.