Thai exports of completely-built-units (CBU) in April dropped 7.52 per cent year-on-year to 67,114 vehicles .

Almost all destinations saw declines in Thai car exports, except for shipments to Australia and the Middle East, said Surapong Paisitpatnapong, spokesman of the FTI’s Automotive Industry Club.

In the first four months of the year, Thailand’s CBU exports dipped 0.23 per cent to 366,955 units with a total value of Bt185.2 billion, down 2.46 per cent year-on-year.

On the production front, Thailand’s car manufacturing in April increased 11.47 per cent year-on-year to 150,242 cars, mainly due to a 9.37 per cent rise year-on-year in pickup production for exports, a 26.99 per cent increase in passenger car for the local market and an 18.74 per cent increase in pickups for domestic distributions.

Total car production went up 5.52 per cent year-on-year in the four-month period to 711,729 units.

Local car sales climbed 8.7 per cent year-on-year to 86,076 in April, thanks to economic expansion, growing consumer demand , new car models, continued public investment in transportation infrastructure, private investments and growing tourism, Surapong said.

In the first four months of this year, domestic car sales increased 10.5 per cent year-on-year to 349,625 cars.

Supant Mongkolsuthree, FTI chairman, said that the Thai Industries Sentiment Index in April fell for the first time in four months to 95.0 from 96.3 |in the previous month as |manufacturers accelerated |their production in March to compensate an expected drop in production in April due to long holidays.

However, manufacturers are concerned over a possible drop in purchasing power as result of droughts, export contraction and the local political situation.

The April survey was conducted on 1,213 business operators in 45 industries.

The three-month Thai Industries Sentiment Index in April also declined to 101.9 from 104.2 in the previous month with manufacturers troubled by rises in production costs, baht fluctuations and the US-China trade war.

 Lee Quane of ECA International said the MyExpatriate Market Pay report reflected Thai economic growth

He said: “The Thai economy has continued to see an upward trend in recent years, with a steady and sustained increase in overseas business – and consequently, expatriate workers – to the nation.”

“In the strengthened demand for expatriate-standard accommodation has, in turn, resulted in higher wages and benefits as increasing numbers of higher-skilled employees move to Thailand.”

Elsewhere in Asia, expatriate pay packages in Singapore rose by US$13,163 in 2018 to US$236,258, including an average cash salary of US$90,170.

When considering the cost of an expatriate package, companies need to factor in three main elements: the cash salary, benefits – such as accommodation, international schools, utilities or cars – and tax.

To assist companies relocating staff with benchmarking their packages against the market, ECA conducts its annual MyExpatriate Market Pay Survey of pay levels for expatriates, including benefits, allowances, salary calculation methods and tax treatment.

“Expatriate pay packages in Singapore increased across the board in 2018, with salaries increasing by nearly US$5,000 and benefits going up by US$6,400 on average,” said Quane. “However, with minimal increases in personal tax and extremely low tax-related costs as compared to most of the other locations in our rankings, Singapore sits at the 19th position globally. This is good news for companies with employees currently living in Singapore, as the relatively high cash salary and benefits and low taxes result in less expense for employers when relocating staff to the country.”

Hong Kong’s expatriate pay packages continued to grow in 2018, with the average package costing companies US$276,417, including an average salary of US$86,984. The overall expatriate pay package in Hong Kong has risen by US$7,902 since last year, with increases to salaries and benefits making up the vast majority of the rise.

Quane said: “After a slight drop in the average expatriate salary in 2017, the overall pay package in Hong Kong increased significantly in 2018. Salaries rose slightly by an average of just over US$1,500 while benefits, including additional expenses on top of the basic salary such as school fees or transportation costs, increased by over US$6,000. The benefits offered as part of an expat’s pay package have always been high in Hong Kong as the small nation continues to be attractive to companies and expatriates alike. Such high costs in expatriate-level accommodation, education in international schools and other expenses result in Hong Kong being significantly more expensive than most other locations.”

Meanwhile, Japan is no longer the most expensive location in the world to send expatriates, after being overtaken in the rankings by the United Kingdom.

“Despite an increase of over US$30,000 to the average expatriate pay package from 2017, Japan has dropped back into second place in our rankings after overtaking the UK in 2017. Although sending a mid-level overseas employee to Japan would now amount to US$386,451, the cost is still US$35,347 behind the total cost of sending an expatriate to the UK.

“Although the overall cost of the pay package for an expatriate in Japan increased by an average of 8.5 per cent in 2018, Japan would most likely have remained at the top of the rankings if not for the significant rise in accommodation costs in the UK last year,” added Quane.

The pay and benefits package of an expatriate living and working in China saw a significant rebound last year, after falling in 2017. The average package is now valued at US$310,204 – an increase of over US$33,000. This pushes China up one place in the rankings to the third position.

Quane said: “Expatriates in China have seen a big jump after a bad year in 2017, which saw the value of the average package drop in all areas. The Chinese yuan experienced a better year in 2018 due to a stronger economy and currency, and has resulted in a considerable improvement in the pay package for overseas workers in China.”

Somchai Amornthum, executive vice president of KTAM, said that the deepening conflict between the economic giants had sunk stock markets worldwide, including in Thailand.

The fund company remains cautious on stock investments, and says it is keeping a close watch on the back-and-forth trade negotiations between the superpowers. Currently, there is a pause in discussions.

On the upside, interest rates are not on the rise, as they were last year and pressure to cut the rates has started, given the global liquidity to possibly support risky assets at a certain level, Somchai said.

The Thai stock market is expected to gain if the political situation is more certain and economic stimulus measures could follow after the formation of a new government.

MSCI’s rebalancing to include Thai stocks into its index could encourage new capital to flow into the Thai market, while low interest rates and high local liquidity will likely help sustain asset prices in the country.

The economy, which appears to have weakened in the first half of this year, will require close observations on its prospects for recovery in the second half, Somchai said. KTAM expects the economy to improve gradually, mainly from domestic consumption and investment.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is forecast to rise gradually to 1,740 points, he said.

Yesterday, the SET Index rose 1.02 per cent to close at 1,626.91, with daily trading turnover of Bt50.93 billion.

The current prices of stocks are well below their fundamentals and Thailand still has stability in the economy, especially with low external debts, a healthy current account surplus and high foreign exchange reserves. Thailand’s political situation has become more certain.

The SET Index is not expected to see sharp falls, said Somchai, adding that the trade conflict between the US and China has given a chance for more investment in the country.

Given the very low possibility for a rise in US interest rates, in light of the trade spat, capital could move back to emerging-market countries including Thailand, he said.

KTAM is focusing on investing in domestic plays with gains from Thailand’s economic expansion and the recovery under way in consumption and investment. It is avoiding those stocks affected by external factors.

It could be an opportunity to accumulate risky assets when markets have sharply fluctuated with expected weight on high-growth markets, particularly emerging markets and developed markets that have already experienced corrections, such as the US, Somchai said.