The pound declined to the weakest level in a month on concern a lockdown across England would deal a painful blow to an economy already reeling from similar measures earlier this year.
Sterling fell as much as 0.7% to $1.2855, the lowest since Oct. 7, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday announced the month-long restrictions amid concern that the coronavirus is spreading rapidly and the National Health Service risks being overwhelmed.
It trimmed losses to trade 0.2% weaker as of 10:15 a.m. in London.
“Another lockdown is the worst-case scenario for the U.K. economy and the pound,” said Lee Hardman, a foreign-exchange strategist at MUFG Bank. “It will increase pressure on the Bank of England to deliver even more aggressive stimulus at this week’s policy meeting.”
Bloomberg Economics said the second lockdown will mean the economy contracts in the fourth quarter and that the BOE will increase its asset purchase target this week by possibly more than the 100 billion pounds ($129 billion) previously forecast. The central bank will decide on policy on Nov. 5, the same day the latest lockdown measures come into effect.
The shutdown is competing with a range of factors likely to influence the pound this week, from optimism about a breakthrough on Brexit trade negotiations with the European Union to the U.S. election on Tuesday. Uncertainty around the vote has driven the cost of hedging the pound over one week to its highest since April.
“I would expect that if it wasn’t for hopes of a Brexit trade agreement that the pound would be a lot lower,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Rabobank, adding that a stronger U.S. dollar is exaggerating the latest move in the pound.
The price of Thai electronics shares dropped sharply on Monday after the US moved to cut Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) privileges worth $817 million on 231 Thai products, including electronics parts, auto parts, and aluminium cookware.
The price of shares in Hana Microelectronics (HANA) fell by 6.11 per cent to Bt42.25. SVI shares dropped by 5.24 per cent to Bt4.88, and Cal-Comp Electronics (CCET) fell 4.35 per cent to Bt2.20.
Supachai Wattanavitheskul, an analyst at Yuanta Securities, predicted the US move would only have a short-term impact, as institutional investors indulged in mass selloffs to take profit from the current high price of electronics and technology shares.
The closure of production lines in Europe due to the second Covid-19 lockdown was also hitting Thai electronic shares, he added.
“However, electronic and tech shares still have a chance to rise sharply in the long term, so we advise buying KCE and DELTA shares at the fair price of Bt43.50 and Bt197 respectively,” he said.
Anakepong Putthapibal, an analyst at Asia Plus Securities, forecast the US move would not affect the Thai economy and exports next year since it was a drop in the ocean compared to Thailand’s Bt4.4-billion annual GSP privileges.
“However, we advise selling electronics stocks until the global economy recovers because the price of some electronic shares is high,” he said
He added that the price of SVI shares had fallen sharply due to the Europe lockdowns, not the US move, since 80 per cent of SVI products are exported to European countries.
Delta Electronics (DELTA) director Anusorn Muttaraid said the US decision would have little impact on his company because it had production bases in several countries and its export volume to the US was low.
“The company just has to adjust its strategy to cope with the US move,” he said, adding that Delta’s performance is expected to improve this year and next.
Govt soft loans dangled for airlines who keep fares low
EconNov 03. 2020Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith says on Monday the government wants to provide soft loans to airlines on condition that airlines do not raise fares too high.
By The Nation
The Finance Ministry will propose a soft loan package for airlines and tourism-related industries at the special Cabinet meeting in Phuket on Tuesday (November 3).
“The government wants to provide the soft loans to airlines and supply chains on condition that airlines do not raise fares too high,” Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, said on Monday.
Controlling fares would boost tourism and contribute to economic recovery, he assured.
Airlines, hotels and tour agents have been hit hard by the Covid-19 travel ban, which has seen arrivals drop to zero since the end of March, after totalling 40 million last year. The government has launched cheap tourism packages and opened Thailand to small groups of foreign holidaymakers via the special tourist visa (STV) scheme.
In August, Thai airlines asked for soft loans worth Bt24 billion. They also requested an extension to the jet fuel-tax waiver and for airports to cut or waive fees for parking, landing, and passenger departure.
Economists estimate the loss of tourism revenue will amount to a 10 to 20 per cent drop in Thai GDP this year.
While some sectors are recovering as the government eases lockdown restrictions, surging Covid rates in many countries have sparked concern over opening Thailand to foreign tourists.
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Sharon Cho, Alex Longley · BUSINESS
Oil plunged to a five-month low as gains in Libyan production coincided with a wave of new virus-lockdown measures in Europe.
The double whammy of growing supply and dwindling demand pushed crude futures down as much as 6% in New York. That could be just the curtain-raiser for a turbulent week of trading as Americans head to the polls Tuesday in an election that could reshape U.S. policy on everything from coronavirus lockdowns to Iran and fracking.
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced at the weekend that England would join other countries in western Europe in imposing tougher restrictions to fight the spread of covid-19. Trafigura Group boss Jeremy Weir said the second wave of the virus around the world could push global oil demand to as low 88 to 89 million barrels a day, down 11% or 12% from last year.
In Libya, the pace of the production recovery continues to surprise traders and create a headache for the OPEC+ alliance. Daily output has reached 800,000 barrels and the country is targeting 1.3 million by the beginning of 2021, said Mustafa Sanalla, the chairman of state-run National Oil Corp. That compares with just 100,000 barrels a day in early September.
The worsening demand outlook coupled with fresh supply has pushed U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate down around 16% from its close on Oct. 20. It leaves OPEC+ with an ever trickier task as it decides whether to add more supplies to the market.
“The recovery in global oil demand has slowed significantly,” said Sri Paravaikkarasu, head of Asia oil at FGE. “Crude prices will continue to be pressured by bearish demand data and headlines in the coming weeks.”
Despite the weakness, Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent oil trader, characterized the latest lockdown measures as just a “speed bump,” with tightening global inventories likely to cushion the downside. The bigger picture is still a world in “stock-drawing mode,” Mike Muller, Vitol’s head of Asia, said in an interview Sunday with Dubai-based consultants Gulf Intelligence.
That view was backed up by figures from India over the weekend, where diesel sales grew for the first time in eight months. The country also posted bumper manufacturing data on Monday, while figures from China showed an expansion too, indicating Asian demand growth continues to outpace the rest of the world.
Crude’s slump at the open on Monday pressured the market’s structure. WTI’s nearest contract traded at its biggest discount to the next month since September, a sign that concerns are growing about oversupply. The cost of bearish put options is at its highest relative to bullish calls since May.
Libya’s National Oil Corp. plans to increase output to 1.6 million barrels a day — around the same level as before the 2011 uprising that ousted Moammar al-Gadhafi — by the end of next year, according to the company’s chairman.
“Libyan production returning is going to be an increasingly important factor driving oil prices,” said Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. The mounting lockdown measures in Europe have also “definitely shaken market confidence,” he said.
By The Washington Post · Jeff Stein · NATIONAL, BUSINESS America’s economy faces severe new strains in the two months between Tuesday’s election and January, a period when Washington could be consumed by political paralysis and gridlock.
This window is typically used by successful presidential candidates to plan for the outset of their administration, but several large economic sectors are bracing to be hit by both an increase in coronavirus cases and the arrival of winter weather.
These factors could exacerbate extreme slowdowns in the travel, restaurant and hospitality industries, and further depress an oil industry already roiled by low prices.
Millions of Americans are also at risk of having their power and water shut off with unpaid utility bills coming due, while protections for renters, student borrowers and jobless Americans will expire by the end of the year absent federal action.
The looming economic pressures come amid a breakdown in bipartisan stimulus negotiations on Capitol Hill and an acrimonious turn in talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Pelosi and Mnuchin, who have worked together throughout the year to successfully secure passage of trillions in emergency aid, instead traded barbs in recent days, with Pelosi saying Tuesday that the administration had “failed miserably” and Mnuchin attacking Pelosi’s “ALL OR NONE approach” in a letter on Friday.
President Donald Trump and Pelosi have both said they would pursue an economic relief deal during the lame-duck session of Congress, but compromise has proved elusive.
“All signs suggest that we’re in for the worst of this at the same time the situation in Washington is also becoming its worst and most horrible,” said Michael Strain, economic expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank.
Washington’s political conflict has escalated amid a surge in coronavirus cases and tremors in the global economy. Wall Street was sent reeling last week, with the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 seeing their biggest weekly declines since March.
With cold weather expected to curb outdoor dining, 40 percent of all restaurant owners nationwide say they expect to go out of business by March without more government assistance, according to industry surveys.
Travel has still not recovered even half of its lost business, according to the Transportation Security Administration. On Wednesday, about 700,000 people cleared the agency’s checkpoints compared to about 2 million one year earlier. Nearly 4 million travel industry jobs have been lost during the pandemic, and another 1 million could vanish by year’s end without federal intervention.
The largest hotel industry group said in September that 2 in 3 U.S. hotels would not last another six months.
Major airlines have already announced tens of thousands of furloughs by the end of the year after their federal aid programs expired in September.
Democrats and Republicans in Congress moved further apart in recent weeks, with a number of Republicans raising concerns about government spending levels and Democrats demanding more action. They could face major decisions during the lame-duck session of Congress.
Emergency weekly federal unemployment benefits have been cut off for months. Several million people will begin to exhaust their base unemployment benefits starting in the middle of December. Absent action, a separate federal unemployment program for as many as 10 million gig workers and others not eligible for traditional unemployment insurance will expire Dec. 31.
The week after the election, the Supreme Court will take up the Affordable Care Act, which could result in tens of millions of people losing their health insurance.
Amid all this, lawmakers must also reach an agreement by Dec. 11 to avert a shutdown of the federal government.
A surge in coronavirus cases has led cities and states across the country to impose new coronavirus restrictions with hospitalizations and deaths on the rise. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recently told The Washington Post “we’re in for a whole lot of hurt” and that the United States “could not possibly be positioned more poorly” for handling the virus in the fall and winter.
Among the biggest mysteries hovering over this uncertainty is what Trump and his aides will do after Election Day, particularly if he loses to Democratic nominee Joe Biden. There are almost three months between the Nov. 3 election and the next inauguration on Jan. 20 – approximately the period of time when both public health experts and economists fear the coronavirus will strike the nation with renewed ferocity. As colder weather pushes people indoors, the Trump administration has not outlined a plan for how to deal with an expected surge of cases and hospitalizations.
Trump and Pelosi have repeatedly sparred over key policy matters. In her letter on Thursday, Pelosi said Democrats and the administration remained divided on liability protections for businesses, money for state and local governments, and tax credits for children, among other issues. Trump last week attacked Pelosi as uninterested in a deal, and White House officials have repeatedly criticized Pelosi for pushing $1,200 stimulus checks for undocumented immigrants and “bailouts” for states and cities, provisions Republicans say they are not prepared to accept.
The president’s attitude toward a stimulus package has fluctuated wildly over the past several months and could change again after the election. Several former White House officials and numerous Republican aides on Capitol Hill said they believe it is possible the president loses interest in the stimulus package once it has no utility for his 2020 presidential campaign.
“I don’t think he’s got much interest in stimulus,” said Casey Mulligan, who served as chief economist for the White House Council of Economic Advisers until last year. “He doesn’t like to give anything for free, and I don’t think he’s going to start now. That’s not his style.”
When the first wave of coronavirus cases hit, lawmakers quickly came together on a bipartisan basis to approve trillions in emergency federal aid – the bulk of it aimed at distressed businesses and families.
That aid was temporary, however, and the vast majority of it has already landed. Of the $2.7 trillion that this year’s congressionally approved pandemic aid is expected to cost, $2.4 trillion – or 90 percent – has already been disbursed or committed, according to Marc Goldwein, vice president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank that tracks the pandemic response.
Now, even as the number of coronavirus cases begins to balloon, the United States is hurtling toward a series of policy deadlines and economic pressure points amid an increasingly murky political situation, one in which experts warn it could be weeks before the election results are clear.
The Trump administration unilaterally extended an eviction moratorium for renters, but it ends at the end of the year. Renters will still be required to pay for the months where they missed payment, creating a backlog that could put 30 million to 40 million Americans nationwide at risk of eviction once the moratorium expire, according to nonprofit housing groups. Hunger has also risen dramatically. The share of adults reporting that their household did not have enough food to eat dramatically rose from last year, according to data compiled by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank.
Other parts of the American economy are bracing for problems. The NYC-area Metropolitan Transportation Authority warned in October of as many as 8,000 layoffs. Amtrak last month warned of 2,400 layoffs without federal help. Of the 100,000 workers in the private bus industry, as many as 80,000 have already been furloughed and as many as 30,000 of them could lose their jobs permanently in the coming months without federal support, according to Peter Pantuso, president and CEO of the American Bus Association, an industry group. As many as 30 percent of bus operators face bankruptcy by Jan. 1, Pantuso said.
Boeing, the aerospace giant, announced more than 7,000 layoffs last week. More than a dozen major retailers have already filed for bankruptcy during the pandemic, and analysts say many more could follow if they’re not able to shore up sales during the crucial holiday period, particularly if forced to close during the Christmas shopping season. The pandemic has cost the oil and gas industry more than 100,000 jobs, with Exxon Mobil announcing an additional 1,900 U.S. job cuts last week amid a continued downturn in oil prices. Employment was down this September by more than 40 percent in movie, arts and entertainment industries, numbers that could deteriorate further without federal help in the winter.
Many economists still believe that the broader U.S. economy will continue to recover even if there is deep scarring in certain sectors through the winter.
The unemployment rate has ticked down to 7.9 percent from its highs over the spring. The federal government reported a record 7.4 percent jump in gross domestic product in the third quarter as the U.S. economy partially recovered from its pandemic lows, propelled in part by federal stimulus. White House senior economic adviser Larry Kudlow has supported a stimulus deal but said the economy is on a “self-sustaining” recovery that does not require additional federal support.
“I don’t think the biggest risks are common or national-level. The biggest risks are specific geographies and specific parts of the population,” said Ernie Tedeschi, who served as an economist in the Obama administration. “But the pain for those segments could be very deep.”
Trump has repeatedly said last week that he would pursue a massive stimulus package following the election. He said he would do so after Republicans recapture the House in Tuesday’s elections, a scenario most political strategists view as extremely unlikely. “After the election, we’ll get the best stimulus package you’ve ever seen,” the president said.
White House spokesman Brian R. Morgenstern said in a statement that Trump “remains committed” to a stimulus agreement, but he reiterated the administration’s opposition to Democrats “attempts to exploit the virus to fund a liberal wish list,” including by providing billions to state and local governments.
Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., may face their own political incentives to delay emergency relief. If Democrats hold the House and retake the Senate, they may want to wait for the next Congress to pass another relief bill because they would then no longer have to compromise with Republicans. And McConnell’s conference was already wary about spending trillions more in the economy, with conservative senators balking at the rising national debt – pressure that may escalate should Republicans aim to avoid aiding an incoming Democratic administration.
“If it’s hard now, pre-election, for Senate Republicans to come to terms with the White House – the consensus is that it becomes nearly impossible after the election,” said John Lettieri, president and CEO of the Economic Innovation Group, which has been lobbying lawmakers for small-business relief. “The costs will be enormous. It will be a self-inflicted wound on an already destabilized economy.”
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Bryce Baschuk · BUSINESS, WORLD The World Trade Organization’s effort to select a new leader next week could be delayed for at least another month because of the rapid spread of covid-19 in Switzerland.
On Sunday Geneva’s cantonal authorities announced strict new lockdown measures amid a surge in infections and hospitalizations in the Swiss city. From Nov. 2 until Nov. 29, the area will prohibit public and private events of more than five people.
The development could further disrupt the WTO’s ability to confirm Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the first African and first woman to lead the organization in its 25-year history.
While some in-person meetings may become virtual, senior WTO officials are discussing whether to postpone their plan to make a formal decision on Okonjo-Iweala’s appointment at a general council meeting currently scheduled for Nov. 9 at the WTO’s headquarters in Geneva.
WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell did not immediately respond to Bloomberg’s requests for comment.
The potential delay of next week’s meeting is neither the only nor the greatest hurdle to Okonjo-Iweala’s appointment to be director general.
On Oct. 28 the Trump administration said it would oppose her bid because the U.S. preferred South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-Hee for the job. Yoo has refused to withdraw from the race and has not responded to Bloomberg’s multiple requests for comment.
The U.S. unilaterally opposed Okonjo-Iweala despite the fact that the WTO selection committee determined she “clearly carried the largest support by members” and “clearly enjoyed broad support from members from all levels of development and from all geographic regions.”
The U.S. move has disrupted the leadership race because all WTO decisions are made by a consensus of its 164 members, which means a single country — in this case the U.S. — can oppose a decision for any reason.
The office of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has provided little clarity as to why he opposes Okonjo-Iweala and what the administration’s ultimate goal is in blocking her appointment.
A spokesman for the U.S. mission in Geneva did not provide a comment.
Whatever the Trump administration’s motives are, the WTO leadership race now hinges on the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election.
Some trade officials argue that if Trump loses the election, as many polls are indicating, the WTO’s selection process should wait until after Joe Biden is inaugurated.
Some trade delegates told Bloomberg they would find a more constructive partner in Biden whose advisers have advocated for greater engagement with U.S. allies and to strengthen multilateral institutions like the WTO.
But the WTO selection process may not move quickly even if Biden is elected. That’s because he won’t be inaugurated until Jan. 20 and crucial domestic priorities such as delivering a financial stimulus package and stopping the spread of covid-19 will take priority over WTO matters.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,202.16 on Monday, up 7.21 points or 0.60 per cent. The volume of total transactions was Bt40.73 billion with an index high of 1,202.55 and a low of 1,191.44.
In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities said he expected the day’s index to fall to between 1,185 and 1,205 owing to European countries imposing a second lockdown in response to rising Covid-19 cases, resulting in negative sentiment for the global economy.
“Also, mass sell-offs in stocks to reduce risks from the US presidential election tomorrow will pressure the index,” he said, adding that the index should rebound from mass buy-ups in shares whose third-quarter performance is expected to improve.
The top 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were STA, CPALL, STARK, AOT, STGT, SCGP, BANPU, PTT, KBANK and MINT.
As of 4.30pm, the price of oil dropped by US$0.77 or 2.15 per cent to $35.02 per barrel, while gold rose by $6.20 or 0.33 per cent, to $1,886.10 per ounce.
Other Asian indices were on the rise:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 23,295.48, up 318.35 points or 1.39 per cent.
China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 3,225.12, up 0.59 points or 0.018 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,420.96, up 184.36 points or 1.39 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,460.01, up 352.59 points or 1.46 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,300.16, up 33.01 points or 1.46 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 12,591.31, up 44.97 points or 0.36 per cent.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index dropped by 0.64 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 1,194.31 in the morning session on Monday.
An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fall to between 1,185 and 1,205 due to European countries’ second lockdown in response to rising Covid-19 cases, resulting in negative sentiment for the global economy.
“Also, mass sell-offs in stocks to reduce risks from the US presidential election tomorrow would pressure the index,” he said, adding that the index would rebound from mass buy-ups in shares whose third-quarter performance is expected to improve.
He recommended that investors buy TU, STGT, STA, CBG, IVL, COM7, SYNEX, ASIAN, HANA, SVI and TVO, whose third-quarter performance is expected to improve.
The SET Index closed at 1,194.95 on Friday, down 6.69 points or 0.56 per cent. The volume of total transactions was Bt52.72 billion with an index high of 1,204.99 and a low of 1,187.49.
The price of gold was unchanged in morning trade on Monday, the Gold Traders Association reported.
As of 9.20am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,650 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,750, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt27,151.56 and Bt28,250, respectively.
At close on Saturday, the association announced the change in the precious metal’s price for one time, causing the price to rise by Bt100 per baht weight.
Spot gold price moved to US$1,882 (Bt58,619) per ounce in the morning after the price rose by $11.9 to $1,879.9 per ounce at close on Friday.
Gold price rose technically after falling in previous days. Meanwhile, it gained positive sentiment from mass buy-ups of the metal as a safe-haven asset in response to uncertainty over Covid-19’s impact on the economy.
Hong Kong gold price rose by HK$10 to $17,340 (Bt69,651) per tael this morning, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.
The Department of Business Development will ask the Cabinet to remove restrictions on three business types so that foreign firms no longer have to apply for investment permits from the Commerce Ministry.
The three types fall under the Foreign Business Act’s “List Three” – areas where Thai nationals are not ready to compete with foreigners, said the department’s director-general Tossapon Tangsubut.
The first area is Type 1 telecom licence services provided via another telecom operators’ network.
The second are treasury centres for managing foreign currencies for businesses and affiliates in the same group.
The third is software development related to Big Data, cyber security, advanced technology, business process management and industrial production.
All three business types already have related agencies where foreign investors could apply for permits without the need to ask the Commerce Ministry, said Tossapon. This would cut redundancy in the process and improve the business investment environment, he added.
The department has already withdrawn several business types from List Three in a bid to woo more foreign investment.
Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith says on Monday the government wants to provide soft loans to airlines on condition that airlines do not raise fares too high. 
Oil tank/ file photo 
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