The government’s Centre for Economic Situation Administration (Cesa) resolved to approve new economic stimulus measures in a meeting chaired by the prime minister and attended by Danucha Pichayanan, deputy secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council.
The new measures, proposed by the Finance Ministry, aim to reduce the cost of living, promote consumption and help small businesses survive.
Under this scheme, the government will provide a 50 per cent subsidy for products purchased from participating retailers and street vendors, but no more than Bt3,000 per person. Those eligible for this subsidy must be at least 18 years old.
The scheme aims to provide subsidies to 15 million persons and expects 80,000 retailers and street vendors to participate.
The Finance Ministry has been instructed to come up with project details to present to Cesa, so the scheme can be implemented by October.
Meanwhile, the centre has also approved additional domestic stimulus measures under the Rao Tiew Duay Kan (We Travel Together) scheme, but adding two additional measures:
• Three new offerings for registered users: 40 per cent discount on accommodation for 10 nights per person, food coupons worth Bt900 per person on Mondays to Thursdays, and worth Bt600 on Fridays to Sundays, and a Bt2,000 refund on airline tickets as of September 1.
• An agreement in principle that civil servants and state-enterprise employees can take two days off after registering and using Rao Tiew Duay Kan packages promoting travel on weekdays. These two days off will not be considered leave.
Labour Ministry moves to create jobs for new graduates
The government’s Centre for Economic Situation Administration (CESA) also has approved the Labour Ministry’s move to jobs for 260,000 new graduates amid the Covid-19 crisis.
“The new graduates will be split into three groups when employed by participating businesses. Holders of bachelor’s degrees will be paid Bt15,000 per month, holders of high-vocational certificates will get Bt11,500 per month, while vocational certificate holders will get Bt9,400 per month,” he said.
“The government will cover 50 per cent of their salaries, or a maximum of Bt7,500 per person per month. Businesses wanting to join the programme must be part of the social security scheme and should not have laid off more than 15 per cent of their employees over the past year.
“This scheme will run from October 1 until September 30, 2021. In case a new employee quits before the 12 months are up, the employer can replace the worker and continue receiving the subsidy,” he added.
“Only Thai nationals, aged no more than 25, and have graduated in 2019 or 2020 will be eligible for this scheme.”
The price of gold is likely to go beyond Bt30,000 per baht weight again now that the baht has weakened due to the political situation, experts said on Wednesday (September 2).
Nuttapong Hirunyasiri, managing director of MTS Gold Group, said the price of gold in the next two months will possibly rise further given its support and resistance lines at US$1,975 and $2,000 per ounce, respectively.
In Thailand, the support and resistance lines are at Bt28,500 and Bt30,000 per baht weight, he said, adding that the precious metal could hit a new high.
“We advise investors to follow US employment data on Friday, as the price of gold will rise if the numbers are worse than expected,” he said.
“Domestically, we advise following the direction of the baht. The currency will not strengthen too much because the economy is suffering from the Covid-19 fallout and the political situation.”
However, he said, the baht may strengthen and pull down the price of gold once foreign investments flow into the country in response to efficient fiscal policies and improvements in other Asian economies, especially China.
“Investors should evaluate the situation closely every month. We also advise that gold be bought as a long-term investment, because the price should not hit its lowest point in the near future,” he added.
Jitti Tangsitpakdee, chairman of the Gold Traders Association, said he doesn’t think the price of gold will rise much in the short term because no major tragedies have taken place.
“However, we need to wait for the US employment data to see if it is worse than the market expected,” he said. “The price will be under pressure because global funds have plenty of gold for sale and they may decide to sell off to make profits.”
He said he expects the price of gold to remain at Bt29,000 per baht weight, but advised investors to monitor the situation closely.
China’s Great Wall Motors is in discussion with the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) authorities about the process of taking over the General Motors (GM) production facilities in Rayong and starting automobile production by early next year.
Great Wall is also discussing investment plans with the Board of Investment and related benefits.
Zhang Jia Ming, president of Great Wall Motors’ Asean operations, told the EEC board that his company was planning to produce several models in Thailand, including 100-per-cent electric vehicles, in line with the government’s policy to focus on the automotive industry – one of the 12 target industries in the EEC.
“The company is currently in talks with GM about its actions for the Rayong factor, which should be completed this year and should start production by early next year. The aim is to make Thailand a production base for Great Wall Motors in Asean,” Zhang said.
He added that Great Wall Motors will try to use as many domestic parts as possible and was ready to make deals with domestic electric car parts manufacturers.
It is also planning to have a subsidiary set up a manufacturing plant in Thailand to produce other parts, such as electric batteries and parts for electric vehicles. Great Wall Motors will also launch a training centre to support the production of new vehicles.
Visa, a world leader in digital payments, said on Wednesday (September 2) that nearly nine in 10 Thai consumers are interested in transacting through digital platforms.
The Visa Consumer Payment Attitudes Study tracked payment habits, attitudes and explored emerging topics related to payments across Southeast Asia including Thailand. The study also found that four out of five Thai consumers (80 per cent) were interested in making payments with biometric authentication.
Suripong Tantiyanon, country manager for Visa Thailand, said: “Thai consumers are becoming tech savvy, quickly adopting digital behaviour in their daily lives. The results of our recent study reaffirms our observation. We are encouraged to see Thai consumers adopting digital financial services, which would lend a hand in building a strong foundation for the country’s digital economy.”
Based on the findings, four in five (81 per cent) are aware of the concept of digital banking –online or mobile services that allow users to access bank accounts, transfer money, pay bills etc without having to visit a bank or use cash.
The respondents cited convenience as their top motivation in adopting digital banking (61 per cent), followed by not having to wait in line at banks (60 per cent) and finding it to be a faster way of banking (57 per cent).
The top five services Thai consumers are looking to receive from digital banks are deposits and withdrawals (72 per cent), paying bills (70 per cent), transferring money to family and friends (69 per cent), payment at retail locations (67 per cent) and investments (58 per cent).
The study also gauged Thai consumers’ interest in the emerging technology of biometric payments and found that four out of five (80 per cent) Thai consumers are interested in this payment method. More specifically, those of Gen-Y (25-39 years old) exhibited higher interest than Gen-X (40-54 years old) in biometric authentication (85 per cent vs 76 per cent).
The top drivers of interest in biometric payments are speed and convenience (53 per cent), followed by the convenience of not having to carry card or cash (50 per cent) and security (48 per cent).
Additionally, respondents also cited paying by finger scan as their most preferred biometric payment method (80 per cent), whilst consumers also feel comfortable using retina scan to make payments while travelling overseas (52 per cent) or for education (42 per cent) and health & fitness (40 per cent).
The study was conducted by ENGINE insights on behalf of Visa in August last year in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Myanmar. Total sample size was 5,102, including 505 working adults in Thailand aged 18-65, with a minimum monthly income of Bt15,000.
The resignation of Finance Minister Predee Daochai has caused uncertainty among investors, UOB Kay Hian strategist Kitpon Pripisankit said.
He said the situation has caused uncertainty among investors over treasury reserves, Gross Domestic Product growth and the roll-out of economic stimulus measures after the Bank of Thailand’s measures expired.
“We believe this is a good decision because the finance minister should receive support to move on policy, but the conflict at a Cabinet meeting showed that outsiders do not have any political power,” Kitpon said.
“With Predee tendering his resignation, the roll-out of economic stimulus measures may not benefit the country much or may be delayed, causing the country’s economy to slow during the rest of the year,” he stated.
Kitpon also said the index would not fall sharply as liquidity is still at a high level, but stocks would come under pressure from a slow economic recovery as most listed companies’ performance still rely on economic activities, with the exception being technology stocks, which have been able to escape the impact of the economic slowdown.
“Investors should pay attention to stocks that have performed well during the Covid-19 pandemic, such as those to do with electronic parts, agriculture, food, and insurance, and stocks whose performance will improve even though the stock market is still unable to rise to the 1,500-point level as seen before the pandemic emerged,” he added.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index dropped by 1.68 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 1,303.89 in the morning session today (September 2) after foreign investors resorted to mass sell-offs of Thai shares.
An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to rebound between 1,310 and 1,315 points before falling in response to a rise in the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in August.
“The US PMI in August rose to 53.1, the highest in a year,” the analyst said.
“The market did gain positive sentiment after the US moved to consider new Covid-19 relief measures.”
However, he warned investors to beware of market volatility because foreign investors’ funds continued to flow out.
He recommended that investors buy stocks whose third-quarter performance would improve, such as CPF, GFPT, TU, Asian, KCE, Hana, Delta, HMPro, Global, DoHome, Com7, JMT, CHG, BCH, PTG, PlanB, CBG and Tasco.
The SET Index closed at 1,305.57 yesterday, down 5.09 points, or 0.39 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt48.63 billion, with an index high of 1,316.68 points and a low of 1,301.014.
The index fell into negative territory following news that Finance Minister Predee Daochai had tendered his resignation less than a month after taking the post, citing health problems.
The price of gold dropped by Bt100 per baht weight in morning trade today (September 2), the Gold Traders Association reported.
As of 9.28am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt28,950 per baht weight and selling price Bt29,050, while gold ornaments cost Bt28,425 and Bt29,550, respectively.
At close yesterday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt29,050 per baht weight and selling price Bt29,150, while gold ornaments cost Bt28,531.12 and Bt29,650, respectively.
The Comex (Commodity Exchange) gold price to be delivered in December rose by 30 cents, or 0.02 per cent, closing at US$1,978.90 (Bt61,849) per ounce yesterday, the highest in two weeks since August 18 this year.
The gold price rose slightly due to a strengthening dollar. However, analysts expected the price to rise further from the US Federal Reserve’s policy to maintain a low interest rate.
Significant aid package is needed to help economy recover from coronavirus, Mnuchin says
EconSep 02. 2020Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin/ File photo
By The Washington Post · Erica Werner, Jonathan O’Connell · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, POLITICS, CONGRESS WASHINGTON – Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Tuesday that a new stimulus package is still needed to help the economy recover from the ravages of the coronavirus, and he committed to calling Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., right away to try to restart talks.
Mnuchin’s comments came in testimony before the select subcommittee on the coronavirus crisis, which convened on Capitol Hill in the final week of Congress’s summer recess. Mnuchin and the panel’s chairman, Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., appeared in person along with a handful of lawmakers, while others spoke through a video link.
“While we continue to see signs of a strong economic recovery, we are sensitive to the fact that there is more work to be done, and certain areas of the economy require additional relief,” Mnuchin testified in his opening statement. “I believe a bipartisan agreement still should be reached and would provide substantial funds” for areas including schools, testing, vaccines, small businesses, enhanced unemployment benefits and the U.S. Postal Service. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said on Tuesday that the struggling airline industry would also need more assistance.
Clyburn chided Mnuchin for not making a deal with Democrats months after the House passed a sweeping $3.4 trillion bill in May called the Heroes Act.
“Additional economic stimulus is urgently needed . . . as the pandemic drags on, states, cities and businesses are warning that more layoffs may be coming,” Clyburn said. “Secretary Mnuchin, I hope you will return to the negotiating table prepared to find common cause.”
Mnuchin was involved in talks last month with Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows aimed at producing a new economic relief package. But those talks collapsed amid partisan rancor, and Trump moved forward on his own with executive actions aimed at providing some relief in areas including unemployment assistance.
Those executive actions have had limited impact, but Meadows reiterated in a television interview Tuesday that more such unilateral moves were under consideration.
Efforts at restarting the talks have sputtered. Pelosi and Meadows spoke last week, with Pelosi saying Democrats would agree to a $2.2 trillion package. But that figure is still too high for Republicans.
“I do not support $2.2 trillion,” Mnuchin said Tuesday. “But what is more important is what is the breakdown of getting money to American workers, American families, kids . . . there are tremendous areas of agreement and that’s what we should be doing right away.”
“I don’t think the right outcome is zero. No one thinks the right outcome is zero,” Mnuchin said.
Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., asked Mnuchin if he would commit to calling Pelosi on Tuesday to restart talks.
“Can I tell her you suggested I call her right after the hearing?” Mnuchin asked.
“Yes, yes, yes,” Waters said.
“Done, I will call her right after the hearing,” Mnuchin said.
The treasury secretary did reach out to the House speaker following the hearing, according to a person familiar with the call who requested anonymity to discuss private communications. However, it was unclear if they actually connected, and there was no public sign of movement in the negotiations.
The administration has pushed Democrats to agree to a slimmed-down package addressing areas of common ground, but Democrats have refused to abandon their goal of a comprehensive package.
Senate Republicans have been working to agree on what they’re calling a “skinny” or “targeted” package with a price tag under $1 trillion that they may try to move forward on the Senate floor as soon as next week. Democrats would probably block this, but Republicans have been trying to put the focus on what they view as Democrats’ unreasonable refusal to compromise in the talks. Senate GOP incumbents in tight races are also eager to be able to vote on some additional recovery measures.
Some 27 million Americans are receiving some form of unemployment aid. On Thursday, the Labor Department said another 1 million Americans filed jobless claims the prior week.
The stock market has made strong gains, and the economy has recovered slightly less than half of the jobs that were initially lost during the pandemic in March and April. Trump has been talking bullishly about the economy’s revival, focusing on things like the stock market, as he and some other White House advisers insist that the economy is poised for a strong “V-shaped” recovery.
Democrats and some liberal economists, however, have expressed concerns about a “K-shaped” recovery, in which the economically advantaged bounce back, while people who are on the lower levels of the income scale fare poorly.
Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J., asked Mnuchin if he agreed the economy was poised for a strong “V-shaped” recovery.
“I think we are set for a very strong recovery but let me just say, there are many businesses, many industries that have been destroyed by this, and that’s why I urge Congress, the House and the Senate, to move forward and let us provide help especially for those hardest-hit businesses,” Mnuchin said.
“Let’s not get lost on different letters of the alphabet, let’s move forward in a bipartisan basis on areas we can agree on,” he said.
Some House Democrats in tough reelection races have also grown uneasy about the inaction on additional coronavirus aid, as the stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment aid and other programs Congress agreed to in a $3 trillion spate of spending in March and April expire. Even as Pelosi has held out for a comprehensive package, some in her caucus have sounded open to the incremental approach pushed by Mnuchin.
At Tuesday’s hearing, Kim, a freshman Democrat up for reelection in a contested race, told Mnuchin that moving forward on areas of agreement was “a great sentiment” – although he went on to highlight some Democratic priorities such as health insurance assistance that Republicans have not embraced.
Ahead of the hearing, Democrats on the subcommittee released a report showing the potential for significant waste in the small-business Paycheck Protection Program Congress created in March. The program distributed $530 billion to small businesses in an effort to keep their workers on payroll. The report found that more than $1 billion went to companies that may have improperly received multiple loans, nearly $100 million went to companies that have been barred from doing business with the government, and nearly $200 million went to companies that staffers found had been previously flagged by the federal government for performance or integrity issues.
The amount of potential waste identified in the report still constitutes a small fraction of the entire program, and Treasury and Small Business Administration officials have committed to auditing loans of more than $2 million. But the staffers behind the report said the loans to be audited constitute less than 1 percent of the total and wrote that “the Administration appears to lack the appropriate oversight mechanisms to identify and root out these problems.”
Mnuchin disputed this allegation in his testimony Tuesday, and Republicans on the subcommittee issued a competing report that praised the administration for demonstrating “how the government can work with the private sector to quickly and efficiently get aid to those in need” by dispensing an unprecedented volume of loans in a short period of time to prevent catastrophic job losses at small businesses.
There continues to be disagreement over how effective the program has been in reducing unemployment. Trump and other administration officials still claim that the program helped small businesses retain or support 50 million jobs – something Trump again boasted during his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention – despite agreement among many experts that the number was likely far smaller due to the government’s faulty data collection methods.
A Post analysis of data on 4.9 million PPP loans released shows that many companies are reported to have “retained” far more workers than they employ. In other cases, the SBA’s jobs claim for entire industries surpasses the total number of workers in those sectors.
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Vildana Hajric · BUSINESS U.S. stocks notched fresh records with tech shares in the lead as investors snapped up work-from-home winners.
Zoom Video Communications led a rally in companies well positioned for stay-at-home orders, while Apple pulled the S&P 500 Index to a fresh high after August’s blowout gain. The dollar erased losses as data showed U.S. manufacturing expanded last month at the fastest pace since 2018. Treasury yields dipped.
Stocks have churned ever higher as investors anticipate a flood of cash coming into the market, with last week’s announcement from the Federal Reserve that the central bank will maintain an easy-money policy adding fuel to the trade. Meanwhile, Chinese factory data Tuesday signaled rising global demand for exports after the initial shock of the pandemic, a good sign for the world economy.
“The big theme right now is the unrelenting, record-breaking rally in tech stocks,” said Candice Bangsund, portfolio manager of global asset allocation at Fiera Capital Corp. “The landscape for stocks is great but there’s still, from a macro perspective, a lot of unknowns as to the progression of the virus and, of course, the implications for global growth.”
Oil climbed toward $43 a barrel as the pickup in economic activity in the U.S. and China signaled a pronounced recovery in crude consumption.
The Stoxx Europe 600 slumped, with travel and leisure shares among the worst performers.
In Asia, equity indexes were mixed. South Korean shares rose, while Australia’s stock benchmark dropped to the lowest since early August.
Here are the main market moves:
Stocks
–The S&P 500 Index rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. EDT.
–The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3%.
–The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.5%.
–The MSCI Emerging Market Index increased 1.5%.
Currencies
–The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose less than 0.1%.
–The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1908.
–The Japanese yen was little changed at 105.95 per dollar.
Bonds
–The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell three basis points to 0.67%.
–Germany’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to -0.42%.
–Britain’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to 0.29%.
Commodities
–West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $42.88 a barrel.
Germany cushions pandemic blow by weaning itself off exports
EconSep 02. 2020The bear and bull statue stands outside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, on Aug. 31, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Alex Kraus. Photo by: Alex Kraus — Bloomberg Location: Frankfurt, Germany
By Syndication The Washington Post, Bloomberg · Birgit Jennen, Raymond Colitt
Germany expects the blow from the coronavirus crisis to be less severe than feared, as the country reduces its traditional reliance on exports.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration forecast that national output will shrink by 5.8% this year. While that still marks one of the worst recessions since the end of World War II, it’s a smaller contraction than an April prediction of 6.3%, as efforts to shore up domestic demand bear fruit.
The relatively moderate decline is “an important sign that we have managed to stabilize domestic demand and decouple to a great extent from global economic developments,” Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said Tuesday at a press conference in Berlin. “We are looking at an unexpectedly fast V-shaped recovery,” and the worst is over, he said.
The government forecast a 12.1% drop in exports this year, compared with a decline of 8.1% for imports and 3.6% for domestic consumption. Germany’s trade surplus was one of the sources of tensions with President Donald Trump, and U.S. trade conflicts with China have hit Germany, even before the pandemic decimated economies across the world.
Germany’s domestic shift may continue. While the country can avoid another nationwide shutdown despite a recent upsurge in infections, its trading partners may need to rein in activity, Altmaier said.
“The global economic environment could remain difficult for a longer time,” he said. “The global recession will be significantly stronger” than during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
Still, Germany’s recovery will be less robust, with 2021 growth of 4.4%. That’s lower than the previous projection of a 5.2% expansion, and pre-crisis levels won’t likely be reached until 2022, Altmaier said.
Activity in Europe’s biggest economy has staged a strong rebound after collapsing in the second quarter, and German companies have turned slightly more optimistic that the economy will continue on its long road to recovery.
Reports on Tuesday showed that German unemployment declined in August and a gauge of factory activity rose to a 22-month high. Still, the manufacturing report from IHS Markit wasn’t all positive. The machinery and equipment sectors — which are more exposed to global demand — remain weak, and businesses continued to cut jobs.
To soften the blow from the pandemic, Merkel’s government suspended constitutional debt limits as part of a massive stimulus program, including cutting value-added taxes and providing money to families. The efforts were mainly focused on getting Germans to spend.
Altmaier said Germany will emerge stronger from the crisis, and his optimistic assessment marks a stark contrast to Merkel’s stern warning last week. The chancellor said the coronavirus crisis will get worse before it gets better, defending her government’s move to abandon its balanced-budget policy.
“I am firmly convinced that it is a good decision to take on a high degree of debt because anything else would mean we would be in the grip of the pandemic for a lot longer,” Merkel said in her annual summer press conference on Friday.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin/ File photo
The bear and bull statue stands outside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, on Aug. 31, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Alex Kraus. Photo by: Alex Kraus — Bloomberg Location: Frankfurt, Germany
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