Virginia’s monthly tax receipts dived by 26.2 percent in April, compared with the previous year, according to the first monthly revenue report to reflect the economic ravages of the pandemic. State officials attributed the drop to extended tax deadlines that let companies and people delay payments until June 1.

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, a Democrat, said he was focused on health rather than rescuing the state’s balance sheets.

“We must combat this virus before we can begin to repair our economy,” he said in a statement.

In Maryland, experts offered a detailed and bleak prediction of the economic damage wrought by the novel coronavirus and the shutdown to curb it.

The state expects to lose at least $925 million in tax revenue by the end of June, forecasters said Thursday, less than half the estimate in the worst-case scenario presented a month ago.

The sum nevertheless will force across-the-board cuts over the next several months. It is expected to balloon to $1.2 billion if Congress does not pass another rescue package. State leaders said they hoped to spare state workers from layoffs.

The good news ended there. The new forecast estimates that three years from now, Maryland will have 100,000 fewer jobs than it did before the pandemic. As of Thursday, 581,950 people in Maryland had filed for unemployment in the past eight weeks.

“I’m repeatedly shocked at the possible depth of this recession,” Andrew Schaufele, director of Maryland’s Bureau of Revenue Estimates, said during a briefing Thursday. “The magnitude is staggering.”

The slightly rosier take on a still-bleak economic forecast is driven by Maryland employers continuing to pay more workers than originally assumed. Schaufele said he could only speculate why more workers were getting paid, suggesting perhaps it was because companies had healthy balance sheets or were reluctant to lose highly trained workers, or because government programs had helped companies make ends meet.

Schaufele cautioned, though, that it appears the economic hardship of the next year will be two to three times as bad as what unfolded over several years during the Great Recession. Even if a vaccine is widely available by the end of next year, today’s economic losses are expected to linger for several more years.

Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot and State Treasurer Nancy Kopp, both Democrats and two of the three members on the powerful Board of Public Works, which can cut state spending – said they expect to start weighing spending reductions suggested by Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, the third member of the board. He has been using his perch as chair of the National Governors Association to encourage Congress to send $500 billion to rescue state governments seeing revenue nose-dive at the same time virus response expenses are exploding.

The White House has privately signaled a willingness to send tens of billions of dollars to states, despite opposition from conservatives.

But that is a fraction of what states have requested. Hogan has said Maryland, for instance, has already spent as much as $2 billion on the response.

Virginia Finance Secretary Aubrey Layne said the April receipts are consistent with the administration’s estimate that the virus will cost the state $1 billion in the fiscal year that ends June 30. The state expects the pandemic to cost it an additional $2 billion in lost revenue and direct expenses over the two-year budget that begins July 1.

Maryland Budget Secretary David Brinkley said Thursday the governor was waiting for the latest estimates before recommending any trims to state spending. But he said there is no program or policy that won’t be on the table.

“First, we have to stop the hemorrhaging,” he said. “There are tough decisions to be made, but we have to do exactly what is necessary.”

Kopp and Franchot said they intend to cut state spending without laying off the state’s workers.

“We don’t want to add to unemployment,” Kopp said.

In a very volatile session, banks led gains in the S&P 500 as Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Bank of America jumped at least 4%. Energy shares joined a surge in crude. Both industries are still the worst performers this year — tumbling more than 30%. The Dow Jones industrial average outperformed major benchmarks as American Express and Cisco Systems jumped. Treasurys rose.

Earlier losses in stocks were driven by weak U.S. jobless claims and as President Donald Trump said he doesn’t want to talk to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping right now. While caution still prevails, some traders may be buying the dip after a sell-off that put the S&P 500 on pace for its worst week since March 20 — or just before the start of a furious stock rally.

“We’ve had another day of bad news with jobless claims today,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. “In the last two months, we bounced back every time we pulled back like this and people don’t want to get too aggressive on the sell-side.”

Shares of U.S. banks have become so weak by comparison with technology stocks that a turning point is coming soon, Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners LLC, wrote in a report Wednesday.

He cited the ratio between the KBW Bank Index and the Nasdaq 100, which closed at record lows the past two days. Wednesday’s ratio was 39% below the average for the past 200 trading days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The historically large gap shows “we are in the ballpark” for a swing toward banks, Krinsky wrote.

Elsewhere, oil rose as Saudi Aramco slashed its sales to key buyers and the IEA said that the market is showing signs of improving.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 rose 1.2% as of 4 p.m. EDT.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index decreased 2.2%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 1.5%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.

– The euro decreased 0.2% to $1.0801.

– The Japanese yen weakened 0.3% to 107.31 per dollar.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys declined three basis points to 0.63%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield decreased one basis point to -0.54%.

– Britain’s 10-year yield fell less than one basis point to 0.204%.

Commodities

– The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 1.1%.

– West Texas Intermediate crude gained 9.3% to $27.64 a barrel.

– Gold rose 1.3% to $1,739.30 an ounce.

As the pandemic continues to keep most Americans at home more often than not, online sales are soaring, according to the Adobe Digital Economy Index, which studies digital consumers.

Online daily sales increased an average 49% through mid April, compared with early March, thanks in large part to stay-at-home orders prompted by the coronavirus pandemic. Grocery sales spiked 110% in online daily sales as more people tried to avoid long lines and crowds at stores.

Meanwhile, Adobe said that pajama sales soared 143% in April compared to March, while sales of pants dropped 13% and bra sales took a 12% hit.

As shelter-in-place orders took effect across the U.S. in March, major retailers shut their doors and consumers had to line up to buy groceries. That sent a shock wave through the U.S. economy, prompting once strong giants such as Macy’s to shut its stores and furlough most of 125,000 employees. Fellow retailer Nieman Marcus filed for bankruptcy after closing its 43 U.S. stores.

But consumers shopping from home has been a boon for others. Amazon reported its revenue was up 26% for the first quarter of the year, and it hired 175,000 workers. And online grocery delivery services have become a hot commodity across the country, with people reporting days-long waits to get a slot. On-demand delivery service Instacart announced in March it planned to hire 300,000 more shoppers to keep up with customer orders.

“We’re seeing an adaptation of buying, of people moving away from just panic buying toilet paper and PPE,” said Vivek Pandya, an analyst at Adobe Digital Insights.

Alyssa Jopling, a student at Bloomsburg University of Pennsylvania, said she has been shopping online much more than usual because she has so much free time.

“I think the best question is, what didn’t I buy online?” she said. “Because I have literally bought anything.”

She spent $300 on new clothes and also bought about 20 candles, though now she isn’t sure why she wanted quite so many.

People are also buying more books and audio equipment, such as speakers, microphones and the multitudes of connector cables that keep our work-from-home lives up and running.

But electronics are also starting to get slightly more expensive for the first time in years, Adobe finds.

“It’s unlikely that consumers will be able to continue to experience favorable pricing online, for electronics, as it has for many years,” the report noted. Part of that increase may come from supply chain hang-ups as manufacturing comes back online after the pandemic through a wrench in its works.

Overall, the spike in online sales is an expected effect of the “offline economy being absorbed into the online one,” Pandya said. Even stores where people might usually shop in person may be getting some benefit – the Adobe study noted that sales of people ordering online and picking items up in person have spiked 208% from April 1 to 20 compared with last year.

Low-wage workers who had little in savings to begin with have been some of the hardest-hit by shutdowns at hotels, restaurants, stadiums, gyms, bars and many other businesses, Federal Reserve data shows. Many are struggling to pay their bills, even with government aid.

It’s a similar story for small businesses. About half will be out of cash within a month, according to data from the Census Bureau. While the federal government has moved to provide emergency loans and grants to small businesses, many owners have told The Washington Post that the grants came with too many strings attached. Others say they worry about taking on loans when they do not know how long they will be closed or operating at half-capacity.

Below are eight key statistics that illustrate where the economy is hurting and may hurt most.

– – –

Nearly 40% of low-income Americans lost jobs in March

Thirty-nine percent of Americans with household income below $40,000 lost jobs in March, according to a recent Fed survey of more than 1,000 people conducted April 3 to 6. These are people who had a job before the pandemic but then lost it. In contrast, 13% of Americans earning over $100,000 lost jobs in March.

“While we are all affected [by the pandemic], the burden has fallen most heavily on those least able to bear it,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday as he urged Congress to do more to aid the economy.

A huge issue is that only certain types of work can be done from home. Sixty-three percent of workers with a college degree could fully work from home in March, the Fed found, versus 20% of workers with a high school diploma or less.

– – –

More than a third of people who were laid off could not pay their bills in April

According to the Fed survey, 18% of Americans did not expect to have enough money to pay all of their bills in April as the fallout from the coronavirus deepened, and it was unlikely that people would return to work soon. The results were even more painful for people who lost their jobs: 35% of people laid off believed they would miss a payment in April, the Fed found.

The Fed conducted its economic “well-being” questionnaire just before the $1,200 relief checks began to go out from the U.S. Treasury, providing a lifeline for many poor and middle-class Americans who have lost a job or had their hours reduced.

But there are ongoing signs that Americans continue to struggle with their bills. A third of renters have not paid their May rent in full, according to a survey by Apartment List, an online rental marketplace.

– – –

Fewer than 1 in 5 businesses could hold out for three months

About 7% of U.S. small businesses said in late April and early May that they had no cash on hand, and another 9.5% said they cannot cover more than a week of operations, according to the Census Bureau. About half would be out of cash within a month, and 17% said they could last 3 months or longer without revenue.

Already, 11.5% of small businesses – including 29.5% of accommodation and food-services operations – reported missing loan payments. And 24% reported missing other bills or scheduled payments. That number soars to 51% for food services and accommodation.

There are two different “pulse” surveys underway by the Census Bureau. Small Business Pulse, the first of which was released Thursday, will be sent to about 100,000 different businesses every week for nine weeks, showing how the economic crisis has affected businesses and how they’re coping. A similar survey of U.S. households is scheduled to be released Monday.

– – –

Nearly half of laid-off Americans are barely ‘getting by’

More than 36 million American workers have applied for unemployment aid, according to the Labor Department, meaning nearly 1 in 4 workers who had jobs in February are now furloughed or laid off. As that toll escalates, so does the financial duress, especially if people are not able to get aid quickly.

Among Americans able to keep their jobs, 76% said they were doing at least OK financially in April; among those who lost a job or had their hours cut, 51% said they were doing at least OK financially, the Fed found.

Nearly half – 48% – of those laid off or facing reduced hours in April said they were “finding it difficult to get by” or “just getting by.”

– – –

Supply-chain problems hit 2 in 3 retailers

Nationally, most small businesses surveyed by the Census Bureau reported a large negative effect from the pandemic in the week from April 26 to May 2. That number ranges from 83.5% in food services and 75% in arts, entertainment and recreation to 7% in utilities and 27.5% in finance.

The virus has wrought havoc upon retail supply chains, as transportation and warehousing businesses report negative pandemic effects at above-average rates. About two-thirds of retailers reported supply-chain problems, compared with about 45% of businesses nationally. Health-care and wholesale-trade businesses also reported major disruptions.

Supply-chain issues were most pronounced in the Deep South states of Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, where more than half of businesses reported disruptions. Maine businesses also saw an unusually high level of supply-chain trouble.

– – –

3 in 4 businesses lose revenue

Three-quarters of U.S. small businesses reported a drop in revenue, with all but one sector (utilities) reporting drops of at least 60%. Eighty-four percent of health-care and social-assistance businesses saw revenue fall.

About 2 in 5 businesses had to close a location for at least part of the week, including more than 70% of businesses in education services or in arts, entertainment and recreation.

Nationally, 27.5% of businesses reported that they cut the number of paid employees during the week of the survey, including 47% of businesses in food services and accommodation.

That segment, which includes restaurants, bars and hotels, is trying to adapt: 42% of such businesses reported pivoting to carry-out- or delivery-based business models. In retail, the number was 32%.

– – –

Three-quarters of small businesses applied for the Paycheck Protection Program

Three-quarters of small businesses requested loans from the federal Paycheck Protection Program, including more than 80% of those in manufacturing, educational services, health care and food services. Seventeen percent of businesses reported seeking no assistance at all – not even from friends, family or savings.

Wyoming businesses were the most self-reliant in the nation, with 1 in 3 reporting that they had not sought any form of assistance.

– – –

Puerto Rico has been hit harder than anywhere else in the U.S.

Overall, more small businesses in Puerto Rico reported large negative effects (65%) than in any state or the District of Columbia. Yet businesses there have requested (and received) Paycheck Protection Program loans at the lowest rate in the nation.

In Puerto Rico, 46% of businesses reported cutting employees in the week of the survey, and 77% reported closing locations during at least part of the week – easily the highest share of any state or territory. D.C. was next at 64.5%.

The island territory’s problems could compound – more than two-thirds of businesses there reported supply-chain disruptions, easily the highest rate in the nation. Fewer than 10% of businesses on the island said they have enough cash to cover three months or more of operations.

– – –

A hopeful note

One somewhat hopeful sign? Just 6% of U.S. small businesses said they believe things will never return to normal. Most said it would take more than four months though, with about a third falling into the more-than-six-months category.

Similarly, 9 in 10 people who were furloughed or lost a job expected to return to it at some point, according to the Fed data. This shows optimism that people will only be out of work temporarily, instead of facing a permanent job loss that can have devastating effects for years to come, triggering the loss of a home or car.

That said, the Fed survey was conducted the first week in April. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll of more than 900 laid-off workers conducted April 27 to May 4 found that 77% expected to return to work, perhaps reflecting the growing reality that some businesses are closing forever or going bankrupt and unlikely to bring back as many workers.

In the Fed survey, 77% said that their boss told them they were likely to return to work, but that the boss did not give a specific return date.

Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director general of the Commerce Ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said her office had studied the trend of the Thai herbal market and learned that more people are consuming herbs like fah talai jone (andrographis), which is believed to help fight cold and fever as well treat inflammation, diarrhoea and help with appetite.

Demand for other popular home remedies for cold, such as ginger, which is believed to ease blood pressure, garlic which is known for its beneficial properties, shallot that has anti-inflammatory properties and lime, which is rich in vitamin C, is also rising.

She added that demand for four other herbs – turmeric, black galangal, cassumunar ginger and gotu kola – is also growing both locally and internationally as it is widely used in cosmetics, in dietary supplements and medicine as well as in the food industry.

Pimchanok reckoned that the trend for food and beverages containing these herbs is likely to grow, especially since there is a rising demand in the West for Asian concoctions that are good for health.

“Herb farmers should adjust their cultivation process to make it organic or non-toxic to add value to their products. Businesses, meanwhile, should come together and develop products that meet standards and consumers’ needs,” she said.

She added that the ministry will also look into the tariff for herbs, and push for export to countries with which Thailand has a free-trade agreement.

These trends were pointed out by Narit Therdsteerasukdi, deputy secretary-general of the Board of Investment (BoI), at a talk about investment trends and opportunities after the outbreak.

In the “new normal”, the industrial sector is also expected to cut down on its dependence on humans and rely more on automation and robotics. Now, he said, labourers will need to upskill and reskill to become “smart workers” who can work will with advanced technology.

Narit also predicted heavy investment in the health and medical sectors, saying Thailand has great potential in providing medical and health rehab services as well as research and development.

He added that the Covid-19 crisis will encourage people to place more importance to a balanced, sustainable and social economy along the model of BCG (bio, circular and green economy).

He said he expects more jobs to be created through investment in smaller provinces instead of just major provinces, because the Covid-19 crisis has prompted workers to return to their hometowns. This creation of jobs upcountry will bolster the grassroots economy.

Narit said that at this point, Thailand should take the opportunity to draw skilled foreign personnel and IT experts to help develop the country. Thailand should also cash in on its low-infection rates and its strong public health system as points to attract these people to work here.

He added that BoI will employ all tools at hand to boost investment in the Kingdom in line with these trends and opportunities.

“The National Economic and Social Development Council’s next report on Monday [May 18] on the effects the pandemic has had on the GDP in the first quarter is expected to be disappointing,” Kobsak Pootrakool, deputy secretary-general to the prime minister for political affairs, said on Thursday (May 14).

He pointed out that many countries are suffering from economic contractions, like South Korea, whose economy has slumped by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter. Lockdowns imposed by many countries from February or March to slow down the pandemic have had a negative impact on employment, manufacturing and people’s income, causing consumers to spend less, he said.

The Thai tourism industry, which contributes about 15 per cent of the GDP, has been the hardest hit, he said.

“The export sector will not fare well, and tourism will no longer drive the Thai economy as many countries have imposed lockdowns. It will take a long while before we see 40 million tourists returning to Thailand as they did in the past,” he lamented.

He said economic activities in the second quarter will be worse than the first quarter, because the full impact of the Covid-19 crisis will be felt from April to June.

However, he said, the Bt400 billion stimulus package which will be injected into the economy in the third quarter, plus the Bt5,000 handouts to affected people should help stop the economy from sliding further.

He also said that the total government spending of Bt1 trillion, which represents about 5 per cent of the GDP, matched with the annual budget of Bt3.3 billion should provide some support to the economy.

Meanwhile, Suthad Sethboonsang, chairman of the central bank’s audit committee, voiced concerns about the foreign investment outlook in the post-Covid era.

The coronavirus outbreak has shaken up global supply chains that had already been weakened by the US-China trade tensions, he said, adding that Thailand may also lose its appeal as an investment destination for foreign investors.

Low daily wages in Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as China and India’s huge domestic markets may make these countries more attractive for foreign direct investment (FDI), he noted.

For instance, he said, due to the sheer size of its market, China has a greater potential to develop a Covid-19 vaccine.

Though Thailand is working on developing its agricultural sector and food production, it should embrace the option of demand-driven markets instead of just focusing on boosting per-rai productivity as it is doing now, he said.

This crisis is likely to change consumer behaviour, as people may seek more nutrient-rich foods, Suthad pointed out.

However, he added, tourism and hospitality will remain Thailand’s strengths and it could take advantage of its location by developing logistics and commerce to bridge Asean, China and India.

According to the Bank of Thailand’s projection, the Thai economy will shrink by 5.3 per cent this year, though some economists are a lot more pessimistic, saying the contraction will be much deeper at 10 per cent.

The value of total transactions stood at Bt46.654 billion with an index high of 1,290.24 and a low of 1,275.85.

A stock analyst predicted that the index would fall between 1,280 and 1,285 as global indices have slumped after the US Federal Reserve chairman warned that the US economy will face unprecedented risks from the Covid-19 pandemic and uncertainty over a second wave of infections.

“In addition, mass sell-off during the final lap of the first-quarter performance announcement will pressure the investment direction,” the stock analyst said.

“However, the index should rebound from hopes of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration easing more lockdown measures since the number of new Covid-19 cases has significantly dropped.”

The top 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were CPALL, BAM, CPF, PTT, AOT, ADVANC, GULF, KTB, GPSC and MINT.

As of 4.30pm, the price of crude oil rose by US$0.86 or 3.40 per cent to $26.15 per barrel, while gold rose by $7.60 or 0.44 per cent, to $1,724 per ounce.

Meanwhile, Asian indices were on a slide:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 19,914.78, down 352.27 points, or 1.74 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 2,870.34, down 27.71 points, or 0.96 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 10,962.15, down 112.45 points, or 1.02 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 23,829.74, down 350.56 points, or 1.45 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 1,924.96, down 15.46 points, or 0.80 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 10,780.88, down 157.39 points, or 1.44 per cent.

Thailand, meanwhile, is pushing for larger exports of agricultural products to the US.

After the meeting with Ambassador Michael George DeSombre, Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanavisit said the envoy complimented the Thai government for its proactive measures in tackling the Covid-19 crisis and said his country was ready to back the move of production bases to Thailand.

The ambassador also told Jurin that Washington was willing to cooperate with intellectual property operations and liberate Thailand from the watch list. DeSombre also told Jurin that Washington believes Thailand can play a bigger role in tourism than other countries in the region once the pandemic is under control.

Jurin, meanwhile, called on the ambassador to push for the US production sector to use more raw materials from Thailand, such as rubber, rice as well as digital content. He also asked the envoy to look into the release of perishable goods, such as fruits and beverages that are stuck in different ports across the US.

The minister called on the diplomat to help coordinate with social-media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and Twitter to prevent the sale of illegal products, such as medical masks, in Thailand, and urged him to have the US private sector participate in the May 25-27 digital content trade show that his ministry has organised.

Meanwhile, large private firms in Thailand are planning to invest in the United States, such as the US$13 billion investment in the petrochemical industry eyed by PTT. The US, on the other hand, is also planning to spend about Bt200 billion in setting up advanced petrochemical plants in Thailand.

As of 9.25am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,800 per baht weight and selling price Bt26,000, while gold ornaments were Bt25,332.36 and Bt26,500, respectively.

At close on Wednesday (May 13), the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,700 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,900, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt25,241.40 and Bt26,400, respectively.

The Gold Spot Index price on Thursday morning moved to around US$1,714 (Bt55,042) per ounce after the price rose by $9.6 to $1,716.4 per ounce at close on Wednesday.

Investors were buying gold as safe haven assets after US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell warned that the US economy would face unprecedented risks from the Covid-19 outbreak.

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong gold price rose by HK$90 to $15,870 (Bt65,760) per tael.