Economic indicators for March showed a decline from February, said Don Nakornthab, senior BOT director.

Exports, private investment, household consumption and tourism were hit hard last month as the spread of the Covid-19 became more acute, he said.

Exports fell by 2.2 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, exports value contracted by 6.5 percent, largely due to weak of global demand as a result of the Covid-19 fallout, he said. BOT export statistics differ from those of the Commerce Ministry, which rely on Customs Department figures. The BOT does not count tanks shipped to Thailand for military exercises, or the return of leased aircraft to their owners abroad by Thai airlines. Customs Department statistics registered export growth of 4.17 percent last month.

However, after severe contraction in February, the value of imports in March expanded by 4.4 percent year-on-year, partly due to China reopening businesses. Excluding gold, imports expanded by 1.3 percent, said Don.

Private consumption dropped from the same period last year in almost all spending categories, as supporting factors including household income, employment and consumer confidence weakened.

The Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) contracted by 11.2 percent year-on-year, pressured by weakening domestic and external demand, and drought in Thailand. Private investment indicators contracted sharply from the same period last year, with the private investment index fell 7.8 percent in March. Large numbers of workers also lost their jobs.

Farmers hit by drought saw their real income decline, leading to a drop in household consumption. Tourists arrivals plunged by 76.4 percent to 819,000, after falling 42 percent in February. Tourist arrivals in April could fall by 99 percent, Don warned, amid government lockdown restrictions including a ban on incoming flights till the end of May, mandatory quarantine for all arrivals, and curfew.

Only government spending remained positive in March, he said. Public spending (excluding transfers) rose for the first time in five months, due to disbursement of the 2020 budget.

“Contraction of the economy in the first quarter from January to March brings expectations of more of the same in April followed by a much larger contraction in the whole of the second quarter from April to June,” he warned.

The Bt1-trillion government stimulus package, worth 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), should help shore up the economy this year and next. Meanwhile the central bank’s loan facility to support small and medium-sized businesses is also relatively large, at 3 percent of GDP. Though the large stimulus packages will aid the economy, the BOT still forecasts a 5.3 percent drop in GDP this year before growth returns in 2021.

The challenge is how to channel the stimulus funds quickly to those who need them, said Don.

He predicted a U- or V-shaped recovery, adding that an L-shaped economic scenario was possible but unlikely.

Thailand’s recovery would largely depend on how the global economy rebounded. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) forecasts global GDP will sink by 2.5 percent – or 8.8 percent in the worst case scenario – this year, before rebounding to grow at 5.9-7.4 percent next year. The WTO also projected world trade volume will fall by 12.9 percent, or 31.9 percent in the worst case scenario, before recovering in 2021 to grow at between 21.3 percent and 24 percent.

The total volume of transactions was Bt79.146 billion with an index high of 1,301.66 and a low of 1,292.97.

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities believes the index will fluctuate between 1,270 and 1,300.

He said the market was propped up by hopes of a US economic recovery after pharmaceutical giant Gilead Sciences found Remdesivir to be effective against Covid-19.

“Also, the Federal Reserve announced it will maintain interest at 0 to 0.25 percent and that it will use all financial tools possible to help the economy recover as soon as possible,” the analyst said. “Moreover, the price of crude oil rebounded after the US oil stores rose slightly.”

He went on to say that investors will sell stocks in retail, tourism and hotel businesses now that the government has extended the state of emergency by another month, which has resulted in provinces not being able to ease their lockdown measures.

“A mass sell-off to reduce risks before May’s long holidays will make the index plunge,” the analyst said.

The top 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were BAM, PTT, PTTEP, CPALL, AOT, KBANK, KCE, SCB, GULF and CPF.

As of 5pm, the price of crude oil rose by US$2.40 or 15.94 percent to $17.46 per barrel, while gold rose by $17 or 0.99 percent, to $1,730.40 per ounce.

Meanwhile, most European indices were on the slide, while Asian indices were on the rise:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 20,193.69, up 422.50 points, or 2.14 percent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 2,860.08, up 37.64 points, or 1.33 percent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 10,721.78, up 207.61 points, or 1.97 percent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 10,992.14, up 219.92 points, or 2.04 percent.

As of 9.25am, the buying price for gold bars stood at Bt25,950 per baht weight and selling price at Bt26,150, while gold ornaments went for Bt25,483.96 and Bt26,650 per baht weight, respectively.

The price of gold had dropped by Bt50 per baht weight on Wednesday’s closing. The buying price of gold bars was Bt25,900 per baht weight and selling price Bt26,100, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt25,438.48 and Bt26,600, respectively.

The Gold Spot Index price dropped by $8.80 to $1,713.40 per ounce at Wednesday’s closing as investor shifted from safe-haven assets to risk assets after Gilead Sciences revealed that the drug Remdesivir is effective against the Covid-19 virus.

The impact of the slowing global economy and drought also saw the MPI drop 6.63 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to last year. However, sales increased by 3.49 percent from the previous month in some industries, including processed foods, which have upped production to meet consumer demand during the Covid-19 crisis.

However, the pandemic has prompted the OIE to revise its economic forecasts across all sectors, including domestic consumption and overall exports. The OIE previously projected this year’s MPI would grow by 2-3 percent and industrial GDP by 1.5-2.5 percent. It has now reduced the MPI target by 6-7 percent.

The MPI for March rose by 1.87 percent from February. The capacity utilisation rate increased from the previous month to 67.22 per cent, while the MPI for the first quarter of this year rose 5.22 per cent on the previous quarter. Imports of capital goods in March contracted by 5.49 percent, while imports of raw and semi-finished goods (excluding gold) grew by 4.72 percent. The increase in imports of raw materials will lead to an increase in industrial production this month.

Industries that continued to expand in March included:

1. The hard-disk industry, which grew by 10.18 percent on the same period last year because of an increase in production and delivery orders after supply chain disruption in China and the closure of production bases in Malaysia and the Philippines, and increasing demand due to the global work-from-home policy, as well as manufacturers adjusting their production and shipments to maritime shipments due to reduced flights.

2. Air conditioners and parts, manufacture of which grew by 4.25 percent on the same period last year after more orders from Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia because competing countries lack production components while the domestic market is stable.

3. Processing and preserving of fruits and vegetables, which rose by 8.22 percent, mainly from coconut milk products for healthy demand and supply of coconut raw materials.

4. Production of medical drugs and chemicals, which expanded by 8.70 percent on the same period last year as medications and disinfectant were manufactured to address the Covid-19 crisis.

5. Frozen seafood production, which increased by 9.75 percent as manufacturers met rising domestic demand for frozen and minced fish products during the stay-home measures.

“Almost all sectors of the food industry have increased production – except for the sugar industry – due to rising demand from foreign countries, especially for ready-to-eat food. This caused food exports to expand for the first time in eight months, growing 0.8 percent in March,” Thongchai said.

Meanwhile, among the main industries dragging down the MPI in March were sugar at -68.93 percent, due to drought which saw less sugarcane enter factories. Production of cars and engines fell 24.56 percent due to lower demand amid the economic slowdown in Thailand and around the world, as well as the effects of Covid-19. Petroleum distillation was down 8.68 percent due to the outbreak’s impact on tourism and travel after flights were grounded and demand for jet and diesel fuel slumped.

In the second half of the year, the OIE expects to see a resurgence of activity in the domestic economy as the Covid-19 outbreak has been relatively well controlled in Thailand. But it said the status of foreign economies that have been less successful in containing the virus would take longer to assess.

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fluctuate between 1,270 and 1,300.

He said that the market gained support from hopes of a US economic recovery after Gilead Sciences revealed that the drug Remdesivir can treat Covid-19 patients effectively.

“In addition, the Federal Reserve announced it would maintain interest at 0.00 to 0.25 per cent, emphasising that they will use all financial tools to help the economy recover as soon as possible,” the stock analyst said. “Moreover, the price of crude oil rebounded after the US oil storage increased slightly.”

He said that investors would sell retail, tourism and hotel stocks after Prime Minister Prayut-Chan-o-cha extended the State of Emergency by another month, as a result provincial governors are unable to ease their lockdown measures.

“The mass sell-off to reduce risks before long holidays would plunge the index,” the stock analyst said.

He said the SET Index on Wednesday closed at 1,282, up 7.69 points, or 0.60 per cent, with transactions amounting to Bt49 billion.

“Foreign investors made net sales of Bt453 million in stocks and Bt3.315 billion in the bond market, while there were 2,362 net short TFEX SET50 contracts,” the analyst said.

He suggested that investors make selective buys from these four groups of stocks:

● ICT and food stocks that have escaped the severe impact of the outbreak, such as ADVANC, INTUCH, DTAC and CPF.

● Financial stocks that would benefit from the Accounting Profession Supervision Committee easing Thai Financial Reporting Standards 9 and low-interest soft loans, such as KTC, SAWAD, MTC, JMT and BAM.

● Stocks whose first quarter performance are expected to improve, such as CPF, IVL, BCPG, GPSC and RS.

● Stocks that would be added to Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) calculation, such as KTC, AWC and TOA.

“We are going to see economic data for the second quarter that’s worse than any data we’ve seen for the economy,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a video news conference. He called it “heartbreaking” to witness millions of job losses, especially in minority communities.

There’s widespread agreement that the U.S. economy is in the midst of its worst crisis since the Great Depression, and Commerce Department data released Wednesday reveal just how severe it is becoming. Consumer and business spending nose-dived in the first quarter even with the economy shuttered for only half of March. Household spending tumbled 7.6 percent, and business investment sank 8.6 percent.

Although Americans flooded grocery stores to buy food and supplies, it was not nearly enough to offset lost spending on dining out, car sales, entertainment and more.

Powell vowed repeatedly on Wednesday to use all of the Fed’s tool to keep U.S. businesses and household afloat during this crisis, but he warned a recovery could be a while and there’s a significant risk of long-term damage if Congress and the central bank don’t do enough to aid the economy.

“We will continue to use these powers forcefully, proactively and aggressively until we are confident that we are solidly on the road to recovery,” Powell said. “It is important that we do everything we can to avoid that longer-run damage.”

Markets largely ignored the dour first quarter economic data on Wednesday, rallying on small but significant scientific advances against Covid-19. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 532 points, or about 2.2 percent. Markets are up nearly 14 percent in April and on track to post the best month since October 1974.

More than 26 million Americans have already lost their jobs and had to seek unemployment aid, and those numbers are expected to rise Thursday with a new round of jobless claims. Many businesses are on the verge of going bankrupt, since they do not have enough money to sustain weeks without any customers or revenue.

It took three years to really begin to climb out of the Great Recession and more than a decade to recover from the Great Depression of the 1930s. Analysts say the government was too slow to act and too stingy with aid in the past, mistakes that should not be repeated now.

This is a “Depression-like shock,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at audit firm RSM. “Policymakers should be prepared to support other rounds of aid and stimulus for an economy that is going to be reeling for some time.”

Powell echoed that sentiment in his Wednesday news conference. “This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States,” Powell said, adding “this is not the time” to be concerned about the national debt.

The second quarter is likely to show a decline of more than 30 percent – a level not seen since the Great Depression – as much of the economy entered a deep lockdown to try to encourage people to stay home to stop the spread of the virus.

“There’s really no question about it. We are in a recession, and it’s going to be a sharp recession,” said economist Alicia Modestino, associate director of the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy.

An official recession occurs when the economy experiences two consecutive quarters of negative growth. A depression is a sustained period of contraction and job loss that lasts for several years. President Donald Trump and many on Wall Street hope the government’s historic levels of aid can avert a depression.

On Wednesday, Trump predicted a quick recovery, while talking with business leaders from companies including Toyota, Wynn Resorts and Waffle House about reopening the economy.

“I really think next year is going to be a tremendous year, and I think the fourth quarter is going to be fantastic,” Trump said. “I can feel it. I can feel the demand.”

Yet, economists across the political spectrum are more skeptical and are urging the federal government to give more money to states, cities and counties to avoid deep layoffs and keep critical services going. They also foresee a need for more testing and more help for people out of work.

“We know Main Street recovers less quickly than Wall Street,” Modestino said. “It will take years to get back to where we were before with such low unemployment.”

So far, the Fed has pumped $2.3 trillion into the economy in the past six weeks, and analysts expect the Fed to bump that up to at least $5 trillion in aid by the end of the year. The amount is unprecedented and dwarfs the relief that Congress and the White House have provided so far.

The Fed’s swift interventions are widely credited with causing a stock market rally in April and returning many parts of the bond market to normal after they froze up in March.

“Powell’s mantra is do whatever it takes for as long as it takes,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics. “There was a late reaction from Congress and the administration to the unfolding crisis. Powell sized up very quickly that the Fed needed to provide support.”

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates at zero for years to come, making it cheap to borrow money to buy a home or car or to start a company.

“We’re going to not be in any hurry to withdrawal these measures or to lift off. We’re going to wait until we’re quite confident that the economy is well on the road to recovery,” Powell said Wednesday.

While the U.S. economy started off the year on solid footing, the situation deteriorated rapidly in March with the spread of the coronavirus, as Trump declared a national emergency and said no more than 10 people could gather at once. The decision aimed at protecting the nation’s health prompted millions of restaurants, gyms, stores, coffee shops and other businesses to shutter.

Annie Clark has owned Get Noticed Boutique in Richardson, Texas, for 15 years and has never seen anything like this. Most of her sales are done in the store. Shutting that down was a huge blow to sales.

“I’ve been through a lot of ups and downs, but this is definitely uncharted territory,” said Clark. “What do you do? You sit on inventory and sit on big bills…. I can only just pray and hope the community I live in is going to support me when we reopen.”

Clark has had to borrow money on credit cards and from family to stay afloat, since getting a loan from a bank or the Small Business Administration has been difficult. But like many small-business owners, she can only survive for so long.

“I hope I don’t have to close,” she said. “I’ve gotten little sleep with the unknown.”

One of the biggest concerns for business owners is whether customers will come back quickly once governors and mayors say it is all right to reopen, or whether shoppers will be fearful to venture out. Early evidence from China and states such as Georgia that are trying to reopen is that caution abounds and spending remains way down.

“If consumers and workers remain housebound into the third quarter, or if the pandemic fades and then reemerges, the recession could last throughout 2020,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist of the PNC Financial Services Group. “The longer consumers are stuck at home and workers can’t get to their jobs, the greater the structural damage to the U.S. economy.”

To support the economy, the Fed has mainly purchased U.S. government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, much as it did during the 2008-09 financial crisis. But given that the pandemic has caused most of the economy to shut down for an extended period of time, there’s been a massive rush to borrow money as businesses and households struggle.

Given what’s happening, the Fed has pledged to buy corporate debt, state and local debt and make loans to midsized companies.

Many on Wall Street and in the business community are eager to know when the Fed will begin its “Main Street Lending Program” that’s supposed to make loans to companies with about 500 to 10,000 employees. Powell said the corporate debt program would start “fairly soon,” but the Main Street Lending would take longer to get going.

Nobel-prize-winning economist Paul Romer is urging the U.S. government to spend $100 billion to test nearly everyone in the nation to put people at ease that the virus is under control and that it is truly safe to reemerge. But so far, only about 2 percent of the nation has been tested.

“It’s totally in our control to fix this,” Romer said. “We should be spending $100 billion on the testing. We should just get it going. It’s just not that hard.”

The plan will see the 1.3 million conventional electricity meters being replaced by smart meters in EEC provinces, not including the meters in Pattaya, at the cost of Bt9 billion. The project will also cover meter maintenance and software upgrade.

EEC covers the provinces of Chachoengsao, Chonburi and Rayong.

Pongsakorn said PEA is also studying investment options for the project, which is expected to be run on the basis of a public-private partnership (PPP). The study PPP options will be wrapped up in the first quarter of next year, he said, adding that so far five private firms have shown interest in the project.

The installation of smart meters in 1.3 million EEC households should be completed by 2024.

The state agency has already started the pilot project of installing smart metres in 150,000 households in Pattaya and this should be finished by next year, before the project is expanded to other parts of Chonburi, Rayong and Chachoengsao.

Once the smart-meter installation is completed in the EEC, PEA plans to expand the project to other major cities like Chiang Mai, Phuket and Koh Samui.

These smart meters can report real-time electricity consumption via a smart-phone application and alert users once the usage exceeds the desired limit.

This smart system will also help PEA record power bills on a more accurate basis as usage will be reported directly to the agency’s central system.

“The company’s unreviewed operating results for the first quarter registered revenue from sales at Bt105.7 billion, marking a 6 percent decrease year-on-year mainly from a drop in chemical prices due to weak global demand,” said Roongrote Rangsiyopash, president and CEO of SCG.

“However, the revenue was similar to the previous quarter, with a rise in earnings from cement-building materials and packaging businesses off-setting a drop in revenue from chemicals.”

The group’s first quarter profit of Bt6.97 billion also marked a sharp 40 percent decline y-o-y and a 2 percent drop quarter on quarter in line with decreased product margins in the chemicals business.

“We have revised downward our projection of sales this year, but we cannot come up with an exact number because it depends on how long the Covid-19 outbreak will last,” Roongrote said. “The company will also cut capital spending to between Bt55 billion and Bt65 billion from the previous plan of between Bt60 billion and Bt70 billion.”

He added that the group will move carefully in terms of mergers and acquisitions, though SCG’s financial position remains strong and it can withstand risks for another year or more.

Meanwhile, the conglomerate’s revenue from businesses outside Thailand, including exports, in the first quarter came in at Bt44.86 billion or 42 percent of total revenue from sales, marking an increase of 3 percent y-o-y. However, earning from export only came in at Bt24.32 billion or 23 percent of total revenue from sales, down 9 percent y-o-y.

SCG’s total assets as of March 31 stood at Bt708.93 billion, 34 percent of which represents assets in Asean.

Roongrote said with global economies badly affected by the pandemic, SCG is among the few companies that is putting forward its best efforts to maintain its operating results of this year’s first quarter closer to that of the previous quarter in order to help society, partners, employees and businesses pull through this tough time.

The company plans to keep its businesses up and running with a solid continuity management plan along with an intensive disruption response plan as well as strict adherence to the government’s health and safety measures.

SCG said it has leveraged digital technology to help more than 90 percent of its employees to work from home and has streamlined end-to-end supply chain management to ensure products, services and solutions are delivered in a convenient and safe manner.

The company is also seeking new opportunities to serve evolving needs, such as shifting sales to online platforms or considerably catalysing the use of Blockchain for procurement, invoicing, and payment with partners. Plus, it continues to maintain a strong financial position and is attuned to challenges if the situation is prolonged.

SCG has also leveraged its expertise, innovations and technologies to collaborate with medical doctors and experts to develop a series of Covid-19 prevention innovations. The innovations are designed to reduce the risk of infection among medics, including Modular Screening and Swab Units developed by SCG HEIM and Living Solution technology, Mobile Isolation Unit created by Chemicals Business.

Apart from this, the SCG Foundation has handed over Bt50 million worth of equipment and donated cash to needy hospitals, he said.

Meanwhile, SCG’s board of directors has agreed to postpone the year’s annual general meeting to June 8 at the group’s headquarters in Bang Sue.

In line with strict prevention measures, the number of participants will be limited and strict hygiene and safety protocols as well as social-distancing measures will be applied at the meeting, Roongrote added.

U.S. banks were among the most aggressive, with six of the biggest earmarking $26 billion. Europe lagged behind, with six of the largest banks that have reported results putting away $11.5 billion, led by U.K. firms and Spain’s Banco Santander.

The figures are an early indication of the damage the crisis is expected to inflict on lenders across the globe, but there are lots of variables that can make them difficult to compare. Banks in the U.S., for instance, have been more profitable than European lenders and can afford to take a significant hit up front. Some of them are also more exposed in areas such as credit card debt and lending to oil and gas companies.

In Europe, HSBC Holdings and Barclays were among the most aggressive, with HSBC saying credit losses could swell to $11 billion this year. Eurozone lenders heeded a call from the European Central Bank to avoid a sharp increase. The ECB has encouraged lenders to be flexible in applying accounting standards, recognizing both their relative weakness and their systemic importance in a region where companies still depend largely on bank lending rather than capital markets for funding.

Several European banks pointed out that they had reduced lending to oil and gas producers in recent years. Others such as UBS Group, which took the lowest provisions among the six European banks, touted the “high quality” of its borrowers – many of them millionaires with assets to back their loans, even if the value of those assets has recently fallen.

Governments have also made life easier for European banks with wide-ranging guarantees and payment stays extended to corporate and consumer loans. Deutsche Bank, which took a relatively small hit, said it was comfortable doing so because many of its corporate clients are small and medium German businesses that benefit from one of the world’s most extensive aid packages.

Despite the relief, Europe’s top investment banks are on course for the highest level of loan loss provisions since the aftermath of the financial crisis, with more to come. Deutsche Bank said it expects provisions to peak in the second quarter. But as the crisis ripples through the economy, there’s a high degree of uncertainty, particularly for banks that have taken relatively benign provisions.

“We might see a further reserve build in the coming quarters,” said Credit Suisse Group Chief Executive Officer Thomas Gottstein.

In China, where the virus hit first, regulators have also allowed banks to take a more lenient approach on how they classify bad debt. The country’s banks had already been grappling with a growing pile of bad loans for several years and saw a slight increase in their share of overall credit in March. That increase was limited by lenders agreeing to let small businesses defer payments and roll over debt.

Consumer and business spending nose-dived in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Department report, which gives the first real look at how painful the economic fallout from the pandemic has been. Although Americans flooded grocery stores to buy food and supplies, it was not nearly enough to offset lost spending on dining out, car sales, entertainment and more.

The worst is yet to come, many analysts say. The second quarter is likely to show a decline of more than 30% — a level not seen since the Great Depression — as much of the economy entered a deep lockdown to try to encourage people to stay home to stop the spread of the virus.

While the U.S. economy started off the year on solid footing, the situation deteriorated rapidly in March after President Donald Trump declared a national emergency and said no more than 10 people could gather together at once, a decision made to protect the nation’s health that triggered millions of restaurants, gyms, coffee shops and other businesses to shutter.