Transactions totalled at Bt49.140 billion with an index high of 1,286.45 and a low of 1,275.68.

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities said he expects the index to fluctuate between 1,265 and 1,290, adding that the market was buoyed by news that many countries, including Thailand, were thinking of allowing some businesses to reopen now that the number of Covid-19 cases have started dropping.

“There were only nine new confirmed cases in Thailand today, plus investors also expect the US Federal Open Market Committee to maintain the interest rate at 0 to 0.25 percent,” the analyst said.

“However, investors were still selling stocks due to uncertainty following a decline in listed companies’ first quarter performance and the high price-to-earnings ratio at 15 times, which may result in stock market volatility.”

The top 10 stocks with the highest trade today were BAM, PTT, CPALL, KBANK, GULF, RATCH, EGCO, CPF, GPSC and PTTEP.

As of 5pm, crude oil price rose by US$1.74 or 14.10 percent to $14.08 per barrel, while gold price dropped by $3.20 or 0.19 percent to $1,719 per ounce.

Meanwhile, Asian indices were on the rise:

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 2,822.44, up 12.42 points, or 0.44 percent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 10,514.17, up 13.03 points, or 0.12 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,643.59, up 67.63 points, or 0.28 percent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 1,947.56, up 13.47 points, or 0.70 percent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 10,772.22, up 156.16 points, or 1.47 percent.

Japan’s Nikkei Index was closed for the Golden Week.

He was responding to news reports that Chinese tourists have expressed a desire to visit Thailand next month. Last year the number of Chinese visitors rose 4.4 per cent to 10.99 million, out of a total 39.7 million tourist arrivals in Thailand, up 4.2 per cent.

Thailand will prioritise public health followed by economic matters, said Taweesin, adding that the CCSA will announce categories of businesses that can resume operations before Friday (May 1).

Disease prevention guidelines for both businesses and customers will also be announced in the few days, he said.

Social distancing and wearing of face masks would continue, he added.

“We want to keep new daily confirmed cases in single digits for as long as possible, till the spread of the virus outside Thailand starts falling,” he said.

The Kingdom’s daily total of new cases has fallen below 10 for three consecutive days. Monday was the first time the case count dropped into single digits at 9 – the lowest since the peak of 188 on March 22 –while Tuesday saw 7 new cases followed by 9 on Wednesday (April 29).

Taweesin also said Thailand should learn lessons from other countries which had eased lockdown restrictions too early and then experienced a second wave of contagion.

Meanwhile, Foreign Ministry deputy spokesman Natapanu Nopkun reminded foreigners stranded in Thailand that their visas will be automatically extended at no charge until July 31.

Economists project the Thai economy this year will be hit hard by the pandemic, with the Bank of Thailand forecasting a 5.3 per cent drop in GDP. Supavud Saicheua, adviser to Kiatnakin Financial Group, meanwhile predicts an economic contraction of much as 10 percent.

The region has led the world in economic growth for years as debt helped fuel frenetic construction of airports, bridges and apartment towers for millions of people moving into cities. That model is now running up against an unprecedented spike in borrowing costs, as investors who piled into the region’s riskiest debt at a record pace grow anxious.

“It’s all coming home to roost,” said Charles Macgregor, head of Asia at Lucror Analytics, an independent research firm based in Singapore that focuses on high-yield credit. “Some companies will take advantage of the crisis to restructure their debt.”

Bondholders are now racing to dump their positions after snapping up a world-beating 140% jump in junk-rated Asian dollar issues in 2019. Spreads on junk bonds have soared to around the highest on record, according to data going back to 2010, new issuance has slowed to a trickle and analysts at Goldman Sachs are predicting defaults will rise.

The swing from boom to bust has been swift even by the standards of today’s manic global markets. Weakening Asian currencies put additional strain on companies that borrowed in dollars. The depth and breadth of the pain will depend on the path of the outbreak and government efforts to prevent economic depression, but some businesses are running out of time. About 40% of the $11.4 trillion in bonds issued by Asian companies will mature before the end of 2021, including about $23 billion of stressed dollar notes coming due this year.

Money managers once seduced by high yields have lost their appetite for risk. Since February 20, investors have withdrawn over $34 billion from corporate bond funds, according to the Institute of International Finance.

The current situation echoes the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, when companies took on unprecedented levels of dollar-denominated debt, says Xavier Jean, senior director for corporate ratings at S&P Global Ratings.

The pandemic is forcing companies to draw down credit lines and even brings fears of a protracted malaise that has some flavor of a depression. In an early warning sign of pain in Asia, Singapore’s economy contracted the most in a decade in the first quarter. The credit market turmoil adds to risks for a region that again surpassed other areas with a 5.3% economic growth rate last year, but is now particularly vulnerable as travel bans and lockdowns crimp exports.

While domestic bond markets in Asia have become more robust and banking systems healthier, the corporate sector is still wobbly. In Indonesia and Thailand in particular, currencies have lost at least 7% against the dollar this year.

Firms are larger compared with the Asian financial crisis, but weaker as a lot of debt has built up, according to Raymond Chia, head of credit research for Asia excluding Japan at Schroder Investment Management.

Indonesia’s corporate debt is the most precarious. The currency is down a region-worst 14% this year, and the local bond market is less robust than its neighbors’. In the past month, S&P has either downgraded or changed outlooks to negative for six Indonesian companies with $3.2 billion in total debt outstanding.

Oil and gas explorer PT Medco Energi Internasional is among them, with a credit profile that only gets weaker the longer the oil price war goes on.

In the region, China “is the elephant in the room,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis. China accounts for about one-quarter of the world’s total corporate debt, and among stressed debtors, it’s an even bigger player: a report last year suggested some 40% of the world’s riskiest debt was owed by Chinese corporates.

Chinese builders, including China Evergrande and Kaisa Group Holdings, are the biggest junk bond issuers in Asia, accounting for about 48% of that market. Now the coronavirus outbreak’s brought sales to a halt, drying up the short-term financing the industry relies on. In March, Herrero invoked another pachyderm, calling the sector “a hibernating grey rhino waking up to global risk aversion.”

The region’s most stressed companies can’t wait for a long recovery. Among Asia-Pacific borrowers with yields above 15%, $23 billion in U.S. currency bonds matures before the end of the year, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.

Among these are Indian auto company Tata Motors, with a dollar bond maturing in April, and China Evergrande Group, one of China’s most indebted developers, with net debt of $88.5 billion as of June. PT Garuda Indonesia, the nation’s flagship carrier, also has $500 million in debt set to mature in June, and global air travel has ground to a halt.

They will all pay dearly to refinance or to access new capital. Spreads on Asia junk dollar bonds have jumped nearly 700 basis points this year to at least a 10-year high, according to a Bloomberg Barclays index.

Total transaction volume was Bt65.440 billion with an index high of 1,124.28 and a low of 1,089.14.

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fluctuate at between 1,080 and 1,100 today.

“The market gained support from governments worldwide issuing measures to deal with the Covid-19 impact. The European Parliament approved a 37-billion euro emergency fund to help European airlines, while the US House of Representatives will vote on the $2-trillion bill before forwarding it to US President Donald Trump for final approval,” the stock analyst said.

“Meanwhile, funds’ move for window dressing to close the net asset value in the first quarter of this year would be a positive sentiment for investment.

“However, crude price dropped after the US suspended its plan to purchase 30 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the volatility due to the change in TFEX Series from H20 to M20 which will make a last trade on March 30, would weight on the SET index “.

The top ten stocks with the highest trade values today were PTT, GULF, BAM, CPALL, ADVANC, KBANK, SCB, AOT, PTTEP, and BBL.

As of 5pm, Asian markets were mixed, while European stocks were on the slide.

In other regional bourses, Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 19,389.43, up 724.83 points, or 3.88 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 2,772.20, up 7.29 points, or 0.26 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 10,109.91, down 45.45 points, or 0.45 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 23,484.28, up 131.94 points, or 0.56 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 1,717.73, up 31.49 points, or 1.87 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 9,698.92, down 37.44 points, or 0.38 per cent.

At 4.51pm, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt24,500 per baht weight and selling price Bt24,800, while buying price of gold ornaments was Bt24,058.92 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,300.

At Thursday’s close (March 26), the buying price of a gold bar was Bt24,250 and selling price Bt24,550, while the buying price of gold ornaments was Bt23,816.36 and selling price Bt25,050.

As of 5pm, Gold contracts in COMEX to be delivered in April dropped by $23.40 or 1.42 per cent, to $1,627.80 per ounce.

A strategist at YLG Bullion and Futures advised investors to buy when the gold price rises between US$1,594 and $1,585 per ounce, while taking profit when the price drops to between $1,646 and $1,651 per ounce.

Veerathai Santiprabhob, governor of the Bank of Thailand, meanwhile offered assurance that the closing of bond funds can be contained after four were shut.

Somkid said he had asked Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana to prepare to issue an emergency decree authorising the borrowing of at least Bt200 billion.

The announcement came after Somkid met with Uttama, Veerathai and other senior officials and bankers to discuss additional relief to offset the virus’ impact.

The pandemic is expected to enter its third stage in Thailand soon, represented by far great numbers of local transmissions.

The government has already launched two relief packages.

The central bank has predicted that economic growth would contract by 5.3 per cent this year, roughly half the amount seen in 1997 at the beginning of the Asian financial crisis.

However, the virus’ impact is expected to be greater, affecting people in all walks of life rather than just the banking sector, property firms and corporations, Somkid said.

The Finance Ministry will use the money borrowed to support every corner of society.

The International Monetary Fund allows member-countries to borrow substantial amounts to deal with the virus fallout, he said.

The money will also be used to restructure the economy so that Thailand is less dependent on exports, Somkid said. The government and private companies such as PTT have to help boost small businesses.

Uttama said the third relief package will be used to help all affected people and the overall economy.

Veerathai said the closure of four bond mutual funds will be go no further as the remaining 60 bond mutual funds remain solid and are backed up by the central bank’s credit facility. The four bond mutual funds managed by TMBAM Eastspring invested largely in foreign assets, while the rest invest in local assets, he said, referring to investors’ rush to redeem their investment units, leading to the closure of the four funds.

To prevent rising bad debt in the banking sector, the central bank has relaxed its loan reserve requirements to help banks implement debt restructuring with borrowers.

The central bank also issued guidelines for banks on debt suspension, lower interest and extending debt repayment periods for individual debtors, Veerathai said.

Securities and Exchange Commission general secretary Ruenvadee Suwanmongkol added that investors who hold units in the 60 surviving bond mutual funds should not worry because those funds largely invest in government bonds and investment-grade local corporate bonds.

Their investments are protected by central bank’s lending facility, which is designed to support the bond market.

Meanwhile, Predee Daochai, president of the Thai Bankers’ Association, said that, in the interest of curbing the virus outbreak, people should send their complaints to banks online and not seek counter service.

He said commercial banks are ready to offer loans under the Government Savings Bank-supported Bt150 billion loans programme, which charges small and mid-sized businesses low interest rates. The loans are partially guaranteed by Thai Credit Guarantee Corp.

Thailand has joined a global effort to cushion the impact of the virus. Germany has launched an $800 billion (Bt26 trillion) package and the US $2.2 trillion, and Japan’s financial assistance to support business totals 1.6 trillion yen.

The IEA expected global oil demand to drop by up to 20 million barrels per day, as more than 3 billion people worldwide were prohibited from travelling and stayed at home due to various measures by many countries to contain the spread of the Covid-19 virus.

The US announced it would suspend the plan to purchase 30 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve which is part of the US measure to buy oil from small and medium oil producers in countries affected by the decline in oil prices. This measure was suspended because the US Congress did not approve the budget of up to US$2 billion.

The US government’s $2-trillion economic stimulus measure and quantitative easing (QE) bond purchase programme helped relieve investor concerns.

Benzene fuel prices rose in contrast with Dubai crude oil after US benzene fuel reserves dropped, while oil demand was still under pressure from the Covid-19 outbreak.

Diesel fuel prices rose lower than Dubai crude oil after diesel fuel demand dropped due to the lockdown in India to contain the spread of Covid-19 virus while oil refineries in the Middle East resumed operations, leading to oversupply.

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities explained that the SET Index on Thursday (March 26) had closed at 1,092, up 11.93 points or 1.10 per cent, with transactions totalling Bt62 billion after the US White House and Senate reached an agreement in a US$2-trillion bill to relieve the burden of Americans and businesses affected by the Covid-19 outbreak.

“Meanwhile, investors bought stocks whose prices had fallen sharply, such as financial, banks and tourism, which supported the market,” the analyst said.

“However, investors made net sales of Bt1.949 billion in stocks and Bt426 million in the bond market. There are 17,484 net long TFEX contracts.”

The analyst expected the index to fluctuate at between 1,080 and 1,100.

“The market gained support from governments worldwide issuing measures to deal with the Covid-19 impact. The European Parliament approved a 37-billion euro emergency fund to help European airlines, while the US House of Representatives will vote on the $2-trillion bill before forwarding it to US President Donald Trump for final approval,” the stock analyst said.

“Meanwhile, funds’ move for window dressing to close the net asset value in the first quarter of this year would be a positive sentiment for investment.

“However, crude oil price dropped after the US suspended its plan to purchase 30 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the volatility due to the change in TFEX Series from H20 to M20 which will make a last trade on March 30 and would pressure the index to fall.”

The analyst recommended investors to make selective buys from three groups of stocks:

● ICT stocks which benefit from work from home trends, such as ADVANC, INTUCH, and DTAC.

● Retail stocks, which benefit from people hoarding products during the Covid-19 situation, such as CPALL and BJC.

● Food stocks, which would benefit from the weakening baht, such as CPF and TU.

As of 9.27am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt24,500 per baht weight and selling price Bt24,800, while the buying price of gold ornaments was Bt24,058.92 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,300.

The prices rose from Thursday’s close (March 26) when the buying price of a gold bar was Bt24,250 and selling price Bt24,550, while the buying price of gold ornaments was Bt23,816.36 and selling price Bt25,050.

Gold contracts in COMEX futures to be delivered in April spiked by US$4.90 to $1,649 per ounce at close on Thursday as investors turned to buy gold as a safe haven asset after the US revealed that the number of people registering for unemployment welfare rose to the highest in history.

Moreover, gold gained positive sentiment from the weakening dollar that caused the gold contracts price to be cheap for investors who hold other currencies.

The US Ministry of Labour revealed that Americans who registered for unemployment welfare rose to 3.28 million people last week, more than the expected 1.5 million people, the highest ever surpassing the 695,000 people during the 1982 financial crisis.

The huge increase was due to many businesses closing down amid the Covid-19 outbreak, resulting in many employees getting laid off.

Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives will debate and vote on a historic US$2-trillion bill to mitigate the economic impact of Covid-19 on Friday after the Senate voted in favour with 96-0 votes.

US President Donald Trump said he was ready to sign this bill if it were approved by the US House of Representatives.

A strategist at YLG Bullion and Futures advised investors to buy when the gold price rises between US$1,594 and $1,585 per ounce, while taking profit when the price drops to between $1,646 and $1,651 per ounce.

“We evaluate the support line at between 1,523 to 1,585 and resistance line at between 1,644 and 1,689,” the strategist said.

“We recommended following the US disclosure of Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, personal expenditure and personal income.”

Meanwhile an economist has suggested the government may need to borrow Bt800 billion-Bt1 trillion to offset the impact of the Covid-19 virus.

Uttama said on Thursday (March 26) the ministry was preparing an emergency decree to borrow money to relieve the hardest-hit sectors of the economy.

“We will determine how much money is needed to tackle the issue,” he told reporters.

An emergency decree from the Finance Ministry would be the second this week following the government’s imposition of a state of emergency from Thursday through April 30.

Uttama’s move also comes after the Bank of Thailand predicted that the economy would contract by 5.3 per cent this year, a drop from its previous forecast.

Uttama said the central bank’s assessment reflected the current situation, but the ministry will be closely watching how the impact of the crisis evolves.

It will consult state agencies about reallocating their shares of the fiscal 2020 budget to keep the focus on the pandemic’s impact, he said. They might have to reallocate 10 per cent of funding to dealing with it directly.

The Transport Ministry will be consulted on measures needed to rescue Thai Airways International, the national flag carrier, which has been severely hurt by flight cancellations, Uttama said.

The estimate that the government might have to borrow Bt800 billion-Bt1 trillion to undo the damage caused by Covid-19 came from Pipat Luangnarumitchai, assistant managing director at Phathra Securities, in an interview with The Nation.

He noted that the US Senate on Thursday approved an historic stimulus package worth $2.2 trillion, an amount equivalent to about 10 per cent of America’s gross domestic product.

Pipat said the Thai government should give top priority to containing the outbreak by mobilising medical resources for testing, screening, quarantine and treatment.

It also must provide relief for businesses and workers. Businesses are dealing with cash-flow shortages due to both the virus outbreak and state-imposed lockdown measures.

And it should inject more liquidity into the market, as the US and countries in Europe are doing.

Washington has earmarked $420 billion worth of loans and is guaranteeing initial losses up to 10 per cent.

The US Federal Reserve will use the fund to float financial institutions – at a cost that could eventually reach $4 trillion, Pipat said.

The Thai government might have to similarly partially guarantee commercial banks’ loans to businesses.

The Bank of Thailand might have to join the government in providing soft loans, Pipat added. It recently launched a debt-restructuring programme for businesses and individuals and has established loan sources for the bond market.