He made the remark when speaking about capital markets at the seminar SEC Capital Market Symposium 2019, held on Tuesday (December 17) by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

He said stock investors should not panic as the fundamentals of listed companies are strong while the firms themselves are competitive.

Kobsak urged all parties to join forces to take the country forward.

He also believes the 2020 budget bill will sail through and take effect early next year.

Finance permanent secretary Prasong Poontaneat said the tax reform committee approved the decision to collect 7 per cent value-added tax on goods ordered online from other counties and also cancel the tax-free status on imported products priced below Bt1,500 to be fair to Thai manufacturers, who produce similar goods and who are charged 7 per cent VAT. The policy is now awaiting the green light from the cabinet.

In reply to a question, principal adviser on Customs Control Development Chaiyuth Kumkun said that in the case where personal belongings in a foreign county were sent back to the host via mail, the owner of the belongings would not be taxed. Customs will consider such evidence as the item’s condition, a photo of the owner with the belongings, or any evidence to affirm that the items were bought in Thailand.

“If the value of the belonging isn’t worth enough to sell as an expensive second hand item, the officer might not tax the owner,” Chaiyuth said.

Stocks, currencies and local-currency sovereign bonds of developing economies are all eking out gains for 2019 after last year’s biggest annual losses in three years.

“It was one of those weird years where the economic situation was worse than expected from the beginning of this year,” said Michael Kushma, the chief investment officer for global fixed income in New York at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “That makes investors worried that we have all the good news priced in and that next year it’s going to be much more challenging.”

Here are some highlights of 2019 across global emerging markets:

U.S. Trade War

As the U.S.-China trade war entered into another year, headlines about the dispute remained a major market driver as the imposition of reciprocal tariffs weighed on exports and economic growth outlooks globally. The International Monetary Fund made a fifth straight cut to its 2019 global growth forecast in October — to 3% from 3.2% in July — citing a broad deterioration as trade tensions undermined the expansion.

Sentiment turned more positive in the fourth quarter as the two largest economies in the world reached a phase-one trade deal in December, without providing much detail on when it will be signed, what China will buy more of, or when part two will start being discussed.

Amid speculation China would use a weaker currency to fight against the tariff impact, both the offshore and onshore yuan weakened past 7 per dollar in August. It was the first time since 2008 the onshore yuan fell below that level, spurring senior officials of the People’s Bank of China to reassure foreign companies the currency won’t continue to weaken significantly.

Global Easing

The Reserve Bank of India kicked off the rate-lowering cycle in Asia in February and has been the most aggressive among the major emerging-market central banks, with five cuts for a total of 135 basis points. This was followed by Indonesia with 100 points and the Philippines at 75 points.

Even those with already low policy rates joined the fray, with the Bank of Korea and Bank of Thailand reducing their rates by 50 basis points each to 1.25%. Malaysia cut once, in May, by 25 basis points.

In other regions, Turkey’s central bank delivered 1,200 basis points of cuts this year to 12% in pursuit of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unconventional theory that high interest rates cause rather than curb price growth. Russia has lowered its policy rate by 150 basis points so far this year. Mexico reduced borrowing costs for the first time in five years, with cuts totaling 75 basis points so far in 2019.

Ukraine Bonanza

Ukraine’s newcomer President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who won a runoff in April, was caught up in the political whirlwind surrounding Trump’s impeachment probe. Congress is investigating whether Trump exercised diplomatic pressure on Zelenskiy for his own political gain.

But that wasn’t enough to deter investors from lapping up Ukraine’s bonds and currency. Foreign funds looking to reap returns on high real interest rates and a burgeoning local-debt market propelled the hryvnia to the best currency performance worldwide. Ukraine’s dollar bonds handed investors a 29% return through Monday, the most among all emerging markets.

Russia Rally

Russia’s currency, equities and bonds bounced back after a rocky 2018, with the ruble and stocks beating all other major emerging markets and bonds handing investors the biggest return among major emerging markets. A new round of U.S. sanctions imposed in August proved to be less severe than expected.

Russian stocks were also boosted by more generous payouts from state-controlled companies under pressure to hand back profits to the Finance Ministry as dividends.

Argentina Election Surprise

Argentine markets all but collapsed in the aftermath of leftist Alberto Fernandez’s surprise victory in mid-August’s primary vote, which led the nation to implement capital controls and re-profile some of its local debt. The peso was the worst-performing currency in the world in 2019.

Fernandez took office Dec. 10, and investors were still waiting to learn how his new government will tackle a debt load of more than $100 billion as the nation careens toward what may be its ninth default in two centuries.

Protests Erupt Across Latin America

Social movements turned into into violent protests across Latin America in 2019 as the region’s worsening income inequality was exacerbated by fuel-price hikes in Ecuador, higher subway fares in Chile, and alleged voter fraud and an ousted leader in Bolivia. It has left the region vulnerable to currency, stock and bond sell-offs as investors weigh the uncertainty that comes along with ravaged cities, new governments and rewritten constitutions.

Colombia also experienced its largest protests in years, with labor unions, students and indigenous groups leading a nationwide strike aimed at President Ivan Duque.

Hong Kong Protest

What started out as a peaceful rally in March against a proposed extradition bill in Hong Kong escalated into full blown violence, with the number of casualties and damage still rising. The U.S. approved the Hong Kong bill supporting the protesters on Nov. 28, though it’s still unclear whether or how it will impact the U.S.-China trade negotiations. What is clear is that the protests don’t seem to be dying down, with one of the biggest pro-democracy protests since June occurring as recently as Dec. 8.

Japan-South Korea Spat

The two nations’ own trade war stems largely from differences in perception as to whether Japan has provided sufficient compensation for its 1910-45 colonization of the Korean Peninsula.

In July, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government placed export restrictions on specialized materials vital for South Korea’s tech industry, claiming the measure was intended to prevent high-tech exports from being illegally transferred to North Korea, which is seen as retaliation for South Korean court decisions demanding Japanese companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. pay compensation to victims of wartime forced labor.

Japan removed South Korea from its list of “white nations” considered safe enough to export strategic materials to in August, while less than two weeks after that, President Moon Jae-in’s government downgraded Japan from its list of most trusted trading partners.

In retaliation for the export curbs, South Korea decided not to extend the General Security of Military Information Agreement, a bilateral pact to share military intelligence on matters such as missile launches by North Korea. South Korea put a halt to its decision to withdraw from this agreement late November as the two nations agreed to continue export talks.

Eskom Issue

A crisis at South Africa’s Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. culminated in a decision by Moody’s Investors Service to cut the company’s debt outlook to negative from stable. Eskom provides about 95% of South Africa’s electricity. It has amassed about 450 billion rand ($31 billion) of debt.

The budget announced in February included a $4.6 billion cash injection over the next three years to help the company service debt and free up money for operations. The government has since announced a rescue plan for the utility and doubled the bailout.

The support has caused South Africa’s budget deficit to soar, putting the country’s sole remaining investment-grade credit rating of Baa3 with Moody’s at risk. On the operational side, the power cuts have already weighed on the rand and bonds, and present a huge risk to the economy due to the effect on business.

Aramco’s IPO

Saudi Aramco raised $25.6 billion from the world’s biggest initial public offering, closing a deal that became synonymous with the kingdom’s controversial crown prince and his plans to reshape the nation.

The IPO stands in contrast to its debut dollar-bond sale in April, which attracted more than $100 billion in orders. The demand allowed Aramco to issue $12 billion of bonds at lower yields than its sovereign parent.

Brazil’s Reform Fight

After years of political wrangling, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro managed to push a pension-reform bill through Congress in October. The bill’s passage was quickly followed by proposed legislation from Bolsonaro to exert greater presidential control over the federal budget. Pension reform has been the primary focus for Brazil’s investors for years. Bolsonaro’s rise, along with campaign promises to pass the bill, brought investors back to the country. Now, all eyes are on Brazil’s bloated tax system, the fate of which remains uncertain.

Pemex Rescue

The year was filled with attempts by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to make good on his campaign promise to rescue embattled state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos. The measures, which have ranged from tax breaks to direct capital injections, are an attempt to support the world’s most indebted oil company as it struggles to stem a decline in production.

The president’s attempts culminated in an oversubscribed $7.5 billion bond sale in September, which went toward reassuring investors of continuing Pemex bond demand, though a cloud of uncertainty still hangs over the company and the country.

Venezuela Defaults

Venezuela missed a payment in October on Petroleos de Venezuela’s 2020 notes — the country’s last bond not in default — setting it up for a legal showdown with holders over collateral that includes 50.1% shares of the company’s U.S. refiner Citgo Holding Inc. While the U.S. moved to temporarily block creditors from seizing the nation’s crown jewel abroad, there are signs of a legal battle ahead, as PDVSA bondholders tap a familiar aide for high-profile investors in debt disputes.

Elections in Asia

In the world’s most expensive election, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was re-elected in May with a wider majority. Since then, the government’s biggest pro-business move has been the cut in corporate taxes, although bonds have failed to rally in the fourth quarter amid concerns for India’s fiscal health and the failure to issue the country’s first foreign-currency debt.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo secured his second and final term in office by a larger majority in the April elections, which was initially marred by protests by opposition. Jokowi’s subsequent cabinet announcement appeared to offer an olive branch to the opponents, while including business-friendly appointments. Investors so far appear favorable to the announced reforms, although there have been some back and forth on regulation.

Thailand’s first election since the military coup in 2014 proved to be contentious, with General Prayuth Chan-Ocha only re-elected as prime minister three months after voting closed, leading a coalition with a razor-thin majority. Despite the uncertainty, the baht remains the top performing currency in Asia in 2019 so far.

Euro-Bond Frenzy

In a bumper year for yield-hunting, emerging-market borrowers sold bonds at dirt-cheap yields, still a lot more attractive than the negative returns from developed economies. But what made 2019 special was the rise of the euro as a borrowing currency. From China to Ivory Coast, governments of all sizes and shapes couldn’t have enough of it as yields plunged.

For the first time since the shared currency was created in 1999, annual bond issuance in euro by emerging-market sovereigns crossed the 50 billion euro ($56 billion) mark. As of Dec. 16, the total amount stood at 52.4 billion euros, far outstripping the previous record of 39.9 billion euros collected over the whole of 2016, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. While the U.S. currency remains the top choice of emerging-market governments, euro-denominated securities now account for 28% of their borrowing abroad. That’s up from 21% in 2013.

The 1.1% increase in manufacturing output, the biggest gain since early 2018, followed a 0.7% decrease in October, Federal Reserve data showed Tuesday, topping the median estimate of economists for a 0.8% gain. Production of motor vehicles and parts jumped 12.4%, the most in a decade; excluding that category, factory output rose 0.3%, the first gain in three months.

Total industrial production, which also includes mines and utilities, rose 1.1% after a 0.9% decrease.

The increase is welcome to manufacturers, who have faced headwinds throughout the year including persistent trade- policy uncertainty and slowing global demand. Even with the gain in November, though, factory output fell 0.8% from a year earlier, and figures were revised lower for September and October, indicating that activity remains relatively subdued.

This month’s proposed initial trade accord between the U.S. and China could bode well for output in 2020 if confidence improves. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s survey Monday showed the outlook for orders among manufacturers in the state advanced to its strongest since February. The Institute for Supply Management’s national factory index has signaled contraction for four months, however.

Other sectors that saw gains in the Fed data included information processing equipment, foods and tobacco and primary metals. Home electronics, clothing and chemicals posted declines.

The report adds to signs economic growth is holding up in the fourth quarter amid indications that consumer spending, the largest part of gross domestic product, will be softer than anticipated. A separate report earlier Tuesday showed construction of new U.S. homes increased more than forecast in November and permits to build climbed to a 12-year high.

Capacity utilization, measuring the amount of a plant that is in use, rebounded to 77.3% from 76.6%.

Utility production rose 2.9% after falling 2.4% the prior month, as below-average November temperatures in much of the country supported demand. Mining production fell 0.2%, with oil and gas well drilling declining 3.9%.

The Fed’s monthly data are volatile and often get revised. Manufacturing, which makes up about three-fourths of total industrial production, accounts for about 11% of the U.S. economy.

Shipments were down 5.9 per cent last month, following a revised 12.5 per cent plunge in October, according to data released by Enterprise Singapore (ESG) on Tuesday ( Dec 17).

The figure was the best showing since February and beat analysts’ consensus forecast of a 6.4 per cent year-on-year fall, as polled by Bloomberg.

Non-electronics exports returned to growth for the first time since February this year, with a 1.3 per cent improvement owing to stronger shipments of non-monetary gold, specialised machinery and non-electric engines and motors.

But electronics products shipments plunged 23.3 per cent – or $1 billion – from a year ago, worse than the 16.4 per cent drop seen in October. Integrated circuits, personal computers and disk drives contributed most to the decline.

UOB economist Barnabas Gan said that although the 23.3 per cent drop in electronics exports may seem alarming, it comes off a high base a year earlier. Also, in value terms, exports for these products recorded the highest figure in 10 months at $3.4 billion.

“So it seems like demand for Singapore products has improved, which is comforting,” he said.

Agreeing, Maybank Kim Eng analysts Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye said the year-on-year decline in electronics exports was exaggerated by “front-loading” of orders in late 2018 after US President Donald Trump threatened further tariff hikes. Exporters shipped out larger quantities of goods as companies brought forward their orders to beat future tariffs.

“We think the electronics downturn is past its worst and a recovery, albeit sluggish, is underway. A partial US-China trade deal will help revive capital expenditure and exports, and electronics exports will likely emerge out of contraction by early 2020,” they said.

On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, exports improved by 5.8 per cent in November, after weakening by 3.1 per cent in the previous month. This was thanks to more shipments of both electronic and non-electronic products. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the level of Nodx reached $14.1 billion in November.

On a year-on-year basis, exports to the majority of Singapore’s top markets fell last month on a year-on-year basis, except to the United States, Thailand and Indonesia. The biggest contributors to the decline were Hong Kong, the European Union and China.

On the other hand, exports to emerging markets grew by 4.4 per cent, in contrast to the 26.6 per cent contraction in the previous month. The improvement was mainly due to the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam markets, the Middle East and Latin America.

Oil domestic exports sank by 27.5 per cent last month, while non-oil re-exports grew by 2.4 per cent from a year ago.

Overall, total imports and total exports decreased in November, but by less than the declines in October. As a result, total trade slid 5.9 per cent year on year.

Last month, Enterprise Singapore cut its Nodx forecast for the full year to between minus 10 per cent and minus 9.5 per cent, a further downgrade from the minus 9 per cent to minus 8 per cent range previously.

But it expects Nodx to pick up next year, with growth in the range of zero to 2 per cent on the back of a gradual recovery in electronics.

JPMorgan analyst Ong Sin Beng said he expects tech to help buoy Singapore’s exports in the first quarter of next year as global capital expenditure gradually recovers.

UOB’s Mr Gan noted: “Industrial production figures have also improved, which tells us that manufacturers have a rosier trade outlook, because why produce when you can’t sell.”

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-non-oil-exports-fall-for-ninth-straight-month-in-november-but-drop

With tech and health-care leading the charge, the S&P 500 index rose in the wake of the agreement, which will see Washington reduce tariffs and Beijing increase purchases of American farm goods, although many details are still to be ironed out. In another positive sign, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s survey measure of general business conditions in the next six months jumped to a five-month high.

The Stoxx Europe 600 also hit a new peak as it jumped for a fourth day. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index reached a 19-week high. Stocks were mixed in Asia, but equities in Shanghai rose after Chinese data showed industrial output and retail sales both exceeded expectations.

The announcement of the preliminary U.S.-China deal staved off a scheduled Dec. 15 tariff hike, a prospect that had loomed large for markets. It remains unclear how China will follow through on pledges to boost American agricultural imports, or how quickly the U.S. promise to roll back half of a September tariff hike will happen.

“Now that the ‘good news’ is here, what is next for stocks? This week should be the last week with any decent volume as investors head for home for Christmas and the New Year’s holiday,” Paul Nolte, a portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago, wrote to clients. “Slow volume should also mean modest moves in stocks, so investors should be able to sleep easy and dream of sugar plum fairies to close out a very good year.”

Still, China’s threat of retaliation against Germany if it excludes Huawei Technologies Co. as a supplier of 5G wireless equipment shows that tensions remain high elsewhere. Also, the U.S. spent Monday acting to ease Mexico’s concerns over labor monitors under the USMCA trade deal.

Elsewhere, oil hovered near a three-month high and gold held steady. Bitcoin slipped below $7,000.

Here are some key events to watch for this week:

–Policy decisions are due Thursday from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.

–Federal Reserve district bank presidents including Robert Kaplan of Dallas, Eric Rosengren of Boston and John Williams of New York are scheduled to speak this week.

–Revised U.S. GDP data are due Friday.

–Friday brings quadruple witching in the U.S., the simultaneous expiration date of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. Expect elevated trading volume, particularly in the last hour of trading.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

-The S&P 500 index gained 0.7% to 3,191.40 as of 4:00 p.m. New York time, the highest on record.

-The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 1.4% to 417.75, the highest on record with the biggest rise in more than two months.

-The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index increased 2.3% to 7,519.05, the highest in more than 19 weeks on the largest climb in almost a year.

-Germany’s DAX index rose 0.9% to 13,407.66, the highest in almost 23 months on the biggest advance in more than a week.

-The MSCI Emerging Market index increased 0.3% to 1,089.76, the highest in eight months.

Currencies

-The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index declined 0.2% to 1,192.66, the lowest in five months.

-The euro climbed 0.2% to $1.1144, the strongest in more than six weeks.

-The British pound increased 0.1% to $1.3343, the strongest in 18 months.

-The Japanese yen depreciated 0.2% to 109.57 per dollar, the weakest in almost seven months.

Bonds

-The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed six basis points to 1.88%.

-Germany’s 10-year yield increased one basis point to -0.28%.

-Britain’s 10-year yield gained three basis points to 0.822%, the highest in about five months.

Commodities

-West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $60.23 a barrel, the highest in three months.

-Gold was little changed at $1,476.45 an ounce, the highest in almost two weeks.

Futures held near $60 a barrel in New York after settling at the highest since Sept. 16 on Friday. The deal involves China buying more American farm products and making new commitments on intellectual property, while the U.S. will suspend new levies and halve existing tariffs on $120 billion of Chinese imports. It’s expected to be signed and released publicly in early January.

While the partial trade deal leaves most of the tariffs built up over the 20-month conflict in place, it’s adding to a more positive outlook for oil prices, which were already drawing support from deeper-than-expected production cuts announced this month by OPEC and its partners. Hedge funds increased net-bullish wagers on West Texas Intermediate crude by the most in three years in the week through Dec. 10.

“The latest Christmas present for oil bulls is a long-awaited trade agreement between the U.S. and China,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Francesco Martoccia said in a report.

WTI for January delivery was little changed at $60.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8:16 a.m. local time. It gained 1.5% last week.

Brent for February settlement was 22 cents higher at $65.44 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange after rising 1.6% on Friday and 1.3% last week. The global benchmark was at a $5.39 premium to WTI for the same month.

The largest cryptocurrency is likely to remain under pressure as perpetrators of the estimated more than $2 billion PlusToken scandal dump coins to cash out, the New York-based firm said Monday in the wake of a five-month investigation that continues to track the tokens as they filter through various blockchain ledgers.

Bitcoin has tumbled almost 50% from its 2019 peak in late June, when Chinese authorities arrested multiple suspects in the pyramidscheme that promised returns as high as 600% and guaranteed that investors would be rewarded for inviting new members. Since that time, market observers have often pointed to possible sales tied to PlusToken suspects not in custody as one of many reasons for price declines.

Chainalysis estimates that PlusToken conspirators have sold about 25,000 Bitcoins and another 20,000 Bitcoins are spread out across more than 8,700 anonymous crypto addresses. Additional coins such as Ether were also used to bilk investors.

“That’s certainly something to consider when you are thinking about where the price is going, at least in the short term,” Kim Grauer, senior economist at Chainalysis said in a phone interview. “It could be, according to our research, continued downward pressure.”

While the transparency of the decentralized ledger technology that powers cryptocurrencies makes it easier to monitor transactions, criminals still take advantage of the anonymous nature of the accounts to mask movements.

Many of the transactions were conducted through so-called mixers such as Wasabi Wallet that offer coin shuffling services that make it almost impossible to identify the user, the researcher said.

Chainalysis suspects that over-the-counter trading desks that deal directly with individuals outside of exchanges are helping to launder the proceeds and cycling the coins through exchanges in China such as Huobi.

“Investors might be concerned about the looming political uncertainty,” said Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, assistant managing director at Phatra Securities.

A group of political activists announced yesterday to go ahead with a planned ‘Run Against Dictatorship’ campaign, starting on January 12 next year.

They were forced to hold the press conference at Thammasat University after police ordered owners of two venues, Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand and the Royal Rattanakosin Hotel, to cancel bookings for the event.

Their political activity coincided with a move by popular opposition figure Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of Future Forward Party who has been disqualified as a member of parliament by the Constitutional Court. Thanathorn and his supporters held a brief protest on Saturday and vowed to continue their protest against what they described as double standard practice by law enforcement agencies, the Thai court and the Election Commission.

Many who had joined Saturday rally posted on their social media platforms that they did not like Thanathorn but could not tolerate the double standard practice of government institutions, signalling that many more may participate in political protests next year.

“Looking ahead, investors may be worried about a possible return to political chaos” said Pipat.

Another factor is the economic situation with growth showing signs of continuous deceleration. The current slowdown has started to affect profits of listed companies, the manufacturing sector and employment, he said.

The phase one deal reached between the US and China is just a temporary truce of the trade war, he added.

Investors should monitor how the world’s two largest economies will negotiate in the phase two deal, he said, in referring to the trade deal under which the US will reduce tariffs but keeping the 25 per cent import duty on Chinese products worth US$ 250 billion that started last year. Some good news is that the trade war is not escalating for now, Pipat said.

Before the market opened on Monday, Tisco Market Insight raised the issue of domestic political factor as key focus as well as the meeting of Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy committee on interest rate on December 18 and Bank of Japan meeting on December 19.

Foreign investors made net sales worth Bt4.8 billion on Monday, compared to Bt20.8 billion between December 1 to 16, and total next sales of Bt41.3 billon year-to-date.

Meanwhile, Ariya Tiranaprakit, senior executive vice president of Thai Bond Market Association said:” the bond market is quiet as many investors have left ahead of the year-end holidays. Moreover, the US-China trade deal has made the bond market less attractive than the equity market or gold as investors want to buy more risk assets”.

Year-to-date, foreign investors have sold Thai bonds worth almost Bt70 billion, largely caused by the central bank cutting its key policy rate twice this year to 1.25 per cent, a very low level, she said. The rate cuts led to drops in Thai bond yields. For example, yield of 10-year maturity bond has decreased from about 2.5 per cent to 1.6 per cent , she said.

She pointed out that while investors have been leaving the bond and stock markets, value of the baht has remained strong. “This demonstrate that capital flows have nothing to do with the baht value, rather it is the high current account surplus that keeps baht strong,” she said.

According to Bank of Thailand , weighted exchange rate was Bt30.212 per dollar on Monday (December 16) compared with Bt30.346 on Monday last week

Thailand is expected to continue to post a large current account surplus this year, estimated to reach US$ 30.4 billion,from $28.5 billion last year. The Bank of Thailand earlier warned importers and exporters to brace for a two-way movement of the baht in an attempt to sway market sentiment which heavily bets on continuous appreciation of the Thai currency.

With tech and health-care leading the charge, the S&P 500 index gained in the wake of the agreement announced Dec. 13 that will see Washington reduce tariffs and Beijing increase purchases of American farm goods, although many details are still to be ironed out. In another positive sign, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s survey measure of general business conditions in the next six months jumped to a five-month high. The dollar retreated.

The Stoxx Europe 600 became the latest major equity gauge to hit a new peak as it jumped for a fourth day, led by gains in financial and industrial shares. Stocks were mixed in Asia. Equities in Shanghai rose after Chinese data showed industrial output and retail sales both exceeded expectations.

The pound strengthened, though it trimmed gains after U.K. factories posted the weakest performance in more than seven years. European bonds mostly edged higher.

The announcement of the preliminary U.S.-China deal staved off a scheduled Dec. 15 tariff hike, a prospect that had loomed large for markets. It remains unclear how China will follow through on pledges to boost American agricultural imports, and how quickly the U.S. promise to roll back half of a September tariff hike will happen.

“Now that the ‘good news’ is here, what is next for stocks? This week should be the last week with any decent volume as investors head for home for Christmas and the New Year’s holiday,” Paul Nolte, a portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago, wrote to clients. “Slow volume should also mean modest moves in stocks, so investors should be able to sleep easy and dream of sugar plum fairies to close out a very good year.”

China’s threat of retaliation against Germany if it excludes Huawei Technologies Co. as a supplier of 5G wireless equipment shows tensions remain high elsewhere.

Elsewhere, oil held near a three-month high and gold was steady. Turkey’s lira dropped the most in almost two months as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned of retaliation over potential U.S. sanctions.

Here are some key events to watch for this week:

– Policy decisions are due Thursday from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.

– Federal Reserve district bank presidents including Robert Kaplan of Dallas, Eric Rosengren of Boston and John Williams of New York are scheduled to speak this week.

– Revised U.S. GDP data are due Friday.

– Friday brings quadruple witching in the U.S., the simultaneous expiration date of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. Expect elevated trading volume, particularly in the last hour of trading.