US president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade negotiations after talks at the G20 meeting in Osaka last week. Markets have been reacting positively to the truce with stocks rising globally.

Should an economic slowdown occur in the US, it will not benefit Trump who is seeking a second-term in office. Neither will it benefit China, as it needs more time before the country can totally depend on its domestic economy. Monier said she expects the two sides to reach a trade deal by the end of this year or early 2020.

However, if the two sides fail to reach a deal, the global economy and asset classes will be hit hard.

If the trade war further escalates and central banks around the world fail to act in time, it can lead to a global economic recession, he warned.

Thailand is among those countries on the radar of global investors due to its high current account surplus and the ambitious plans for the Eastern Economic Corridor, a flagship investment scheme, said Homin Lee, head of portfolio solutions and Asia and Asia Macro strategist at Lombard Odier.

The Swiss private bank, which specialises in wealth and asset management, has divided emerging market countries into three groups: the most robust countries, sound but vulnerable countries and the weakest ones.

Thailand, China, India, Malaysia, South Korea, Russia and Peru are in the first group, said Lee. Thailand has a current account surplus estimated to be 6 per cent of gross domestic product this year and the persistent surplus makes the baht stable, he said.

Those in the second group are Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Poland, Hungary, the Philippines and Indonesia. The first and second groups are expected to benefit should the US Federal Reserve cut its policy rate – perhaps twice this year. The weakest countries are South Africa, Argentina and Turkey.

His comment came as the baht reached a six-year high against the US dollar, at around 30.5 to the greenback, and amid gains in the stock market.

The baht would appreciate further and it is expected to surpass 30 to the US dollar by the end of this year, though this would be positive for the economy, said Lee.

Thailand is in a better position than most as the country has many big public investment projects on the way. While the stronger baht may hurt exports and manufacturing, it could boost investment, Lee said. Lower global interest rates led by the expected Fed rate cuts would also boost other emerging market economies and Thailand could then export more products to these markets.

Lee also expected other currencies would appreciate against the US dollar as the Federal Reserve is expected cut rate twice during the rest of the year. He said that even though growth in the US and global economies is late in the cycle, investors still have investment opportunities – particularly in emerging market assets. Lee recommends that investors could hold 40 per cent of their portfolio in equities, 40 per cent in bonds and the rest in alternative investments.

Jirawat Supornpaibul, private banking group head at Kasikornbank (KBank, said that Thailand’s equity and corporate bond market are small, limiting investment opportunities, so Thai investors should look overseas. He said Kasikorn private banking can help customers deal with exchange rate risks by hedging, at a cost of only 0.7 per cent. “Our exchange rate hedge has proven that it can protect the interest of investors from the risks of losing money due to exchange rate volatility,” he said.

Reports on the death of bank branches are greatly exaggerated, but certainly the impact of new technologies, competition from fintech startups and the evolving demands of modern consumers mean they’ll have to be smaller, much more efficient and serve very different needs than they do today. And, most likely, there will be even fewer of them around.

The number of bank branches in Thailand has steadily declined, dropping to 6,729 in January from 6,780 year on year, compared to a peak of 7,065 in January 2016, according to the Bank of Thailand’s figures. In countries such as the UK, the drop has been even steeper, with more than half of the branches having closed in the last 12 years.

To a great extent, that’s because of the evolving nature of financial services, as more and more transactions are done digitally. For banks, it’s not a simple yes or no question whether to keep the branches open, but more about evaluating what types of transactions are best suited for them and how they should re-configure their network and space to make the most out of those transactions.

Thais don’t visit bank branches often, but when they do, they’re happy with their service, according to a recent study by Accenture. About 31 per cent of consumers surveyed said they go to a physical bank branch at least once a week with 66 per cent expressing satisfaction with the service. That’s higher than the global average of 57 per cent .

But as more and more of the global economy becomes digital in nature, the role of branches will have to change for added value. Branches need to be redesigned as an “experience store network”—a connected group of highly visible, digitally enabled, multi-format, market-specific environments offering a positive and personalised experience that supplements and complements the digital experience of customers.

Banks that shift to the new model can bolster their brand as a destination for customers who want human support and an environment that is welcoming, engaging. Based on our analysis, large banks that adopt such a concept can save about 13 per cent of their costs while also increasing network-driven revenue by 11 per cent—an economic equation that should be attractive to most retail bankers.

Nearly three-quarters of Thais (71 per cent) in the survey said they would like their banks to blend physical branches and digital services for a more seamless experience. It makes sense as most customers still have to deal with staff asking for information which are already in the system but not readily available across different channels, often creating a time-consuming and less-than-pleasant experience for them.

The branch of the future is certainly going to be smaller and focused on face-to-face, value-added conversations. It’s going to be a place where you can explore new products, new processes and journeys, such as the overall experience of buying a house or designing your retirement plan.

The physical space and digital technologies will focus on those types of shared conversations, where clients and bank staff discuss these journeys, rather than having a person typing on a computer screen that you’re not allowed to see. It’ll move from a data entry type of experience (the data should be there already), to more collaborative and exploring conversations around products and services that clients need for their financial well-being.

Imagine your bank helping you buy your dream home, provide information on prices of apartments in your area and puts you in touch with the right real estate agent in the neighborhood. That’s much more than just giving you money and the connection is fundamentally different. The same goes for retirement planning and similar “life moments”: you want the bank to help you achieve your dreams in retirement, not just giving you a pension.

Times have changed and customers have moved on, heavily influenced by their Internet experience and it’s time for banks to catch up. As this new, digitally-enabled and engaging breed of branches emerge and multiple, so will opportunities for banks.

Contributed by Nontawat Poomchusri, country managing director and head of financial services practice, Accenture Thailand.

Aung Aye Han, deputy director general of the Ministry of Hotels and Tourism, told The Nation on Wednesday that the authorities see a bright outlook for Myanmar’s tourism industry thanks to the efforts of key stakeholders.

“We witnessed a 24 per cent increase in tourist arrivals in the first half of this year. So we hope to receive more in the second half,” he said.

As of May, Myanmar received 1.84 million visitors, up 24 per cent from the same period of last year. More than 3.55 million visited the nation last year.

“Our recent visa relaxation will take effect soon. Starting from October 1, visitors from Australia, Germany, Italy, Russia, Spain and Switzerland no longer need to apply for a visa in advance,” he said.

With the relaxation, Myanmar is allowing visa-free travel for visitors from 12 countries and the issuance of visas-on-arrival for those from 55 countries and territories.

Currently, Myanmar allows visa-free travel for 30 days for passport holders of Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Macau. The citizens of seven Asean countries – Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines – can stay for up to 14 days without any visa.

Myanmar recently added six more countries from the West to its list of countries whose citizens can obtain a visa on arrival. Now, citizens of all countries in Europe and Asean as well as those from wealthy nations like the United States, Australia, Canada and New Zealand no longer need to take the time to apply for a visa, said the official.

According to the Immigration Department, visitors arriving in Myanmar through three international airports – Yangon, Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw – need to pay up to US$50, depending on the different types of visa they apply for. A 24-hour transit visa will cost $20, if the country of origin is included in the list of eligible countries.

Aung Aye Han said Myanmar may expand the list of visa exemption countries and the eligibility for visa-on-arrival next year, depending on the number of visitors from the targeted countries and the average spending during their stay.

“We have only three months left before the latest visa relaxation takes effect. So, we will wait and see on the what the progress is before we decide to allow visa-related privileges for more countries,” he said.

In a bid to generate more revenue from tourism, Myanmar aims to attract more Western tourists while maintaining its “Look East” tourism policy, he said.

“On top of the visa relaxations, we now have high hopes for Bagan to be recognised as a UNESCO World Heritage Site very soon,” he said.

“Once we hear good news from [a UNESCO meeting in] Baku, we believe foreigners’ interest in Myanmar will significantly rise and our tourism sector will boom.”

The Ministry is also cooperating with the United Nations World Tourism Organisation to improve the standards of hotels in Myanmar.

“In terms of star ratings of hotels across the country, experts from UNWTO, Malaysia and Thailand have undertaken on-the-ground observations for nearly two weeks,” he said.

“They are now finalising their recommendations to improve our regulations in this regard. With their support, we will make sure our regulations are fully in line with international standards.”

The official foresees growth in the number of visitors to key tourist spots such as Yangon, Mandalay, Bagan, Ngapali and Inle in the months to come.

“We have a lot of new attractions in some parts of Myanmar. But at this point, it is hard to see them as tourism destinations for several reasons,” he said.

During the interview, he stressed the importance of four “As” in the establishment of a tourism destination – attraction, accessibility, accommodation and administration.

“Ours is a country of natural blessings, and we can easily find beautiful waterfalls here and there. But, some of them cannot be easily accessed because they are located in areas controlled by armed groups,” he said.

He gave the example of Gaw Yin Gyi Island, where there is no proper accommodation for foreign visitors yet. He believes a proper administration system should be in place there to attract tourists.

“Doubtless, it is one of the most beautiful islands in Asean. But it is a pity that we don’t have good accommodation and some emergency relief measures in place. So our key destinations will remain the same until the new attractions come up,” he said.

“Asean will become the next central hub for Chinese investments in the next 10 years, with Thailand being in an advantageous position as it lies in the centre of the region,” said Zhigang Li, chairman of the board of directors and executive committee of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Thai) Plc.

Li was speaking on Wednesday at a Fitch Thailand Investor Briefing event titled “China’s Credit Outlook and Investment in Asia Pacific”.

The chairman expects a rapid acceleration of Chinese investments as part of the BRI to flow into the region, citing low tariff levels, abundant opportunities for economic growth, strong demand in infrastructure development and strategic geographical location as the region’s key advantages.

From 2013 to 2018, $24 trillion of BRI-related capital flowed into Thailand, according to research by the CIMB Asean Research Institute (CARI) titled “China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Southeast Asia”.

However, Thailand is notable in lagging its Asean neighbours, with Indonesia gaining the largest BRI-related capital flows of $171 billion, followed by Vietnam with $152 billion, Cambodia $104 billion, Malaysia $98 billion and Singapore $70 billion in the same period, the research states.

To boost investments, the Thai government will need to step up its efforts to provide more incentives and institutional support to Chinese investors eyeing the Kingdom’s market, Li said.

The key sectors which BRI investments will be targeting in Thailand, he said, included energy, infrastructure and logistics.

In 2018, up to 44 per cent of China’s GDP was spent on investments abroad, he said.

Given that there is a high demand for infrastructure investment in the Asia Pacific region, China’s BRI investments are set to increase significantly to capitalise on this opportunity, he said.

By 2030, the Asia-Pacific region will need an additional $26 trillion in infrastructure investments to meet the demands of the region’s economies, according to research by the Asian Development Bank titled “Meeting Asia’s Infrastructure Needs.”

Of these countries, the Asean region will need $3.1 trillion or 12 per cent of Asia-Pacific’s total infrastructure investment demand by 2030.

“Furthermore, the Chinese government has also been encouraging some Chinese manufacturers to relocate in the Asean region,” Li said. “One such company which has plans to expand their manufacturing base to Thailand in the next two years is Shanghai Automobile.”

Meanwhile, China’s shift in its own domestic economic policy will also have indirect positive impacts on the Asean region, said Stephen Schwarts, senior director and head of the Asia Pacific sovereign ratings for Fitch Ratings Hong Kong.

Thailand’s exports to China have been in decline since the first half of 2019 due to the US-China trade conflict. This is because Thailand is in the supply chain affected by the tariffs that the US has imposed on China.

In May, Thailand’s exports to China declined by 8.7 per cent year on year, valued at $11.6 billion, according to the Commerce Ministry.

However, Schwarts contends, certain export goods from Thailand stand to benefit from China as it has been stimulating its economy through fiscal means in recent years, largely through cuts in income tax.

This, he said, has caused consumer spending in China to increase significantly, leading to higher purchase in various consumer goods which China may import from Thailand, such as agricultural products and commercial goods.

Atisit Chainuwat, an assistant spokesman of the PM Office, said after the Cabinet meeting yesterday that the proposed total amount of  Bt4.98 billion for BMTA was slashed to Bt1.78 billion, mainly due to a cut in the proposed subsidy of Bt1.95 billion for air-conditioned buses, citing prices issue.

Meanwhile, the Cabinet slashed the proposed amount of Bt7.08 billion in subsidy for SRT to Bt3.24 billion.

Of the subsidy reductions for SRT, its proposed budget for infrastructure was decreased  from Bt913.42 million to Bt176.04 million while the amount of depreciation was lowered from Bt1.22 billion to Bt11.33 million.

Proposed interest expense was cut from Bt1.03 billion to Bt41.56 million as some investments were  shouldered by the public sector.

In regard to the proposed subsidy for  fuel cost, it was decreased from Bt570.29 million to Bt531.72 million due to an adjustment in calculation, while the proposed pension payout of Bt746.84 million for retired officials during the year has also been lowered .

The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) has also agreed with the Ministry of Transport’s policy for the two state enterprises, following their rehabilitation, particularly in the areas of organisational restructuring and solutions to financial problems.

Foreign investors still recorded net purchases of Bt2.19 billion, while the net proprietary purchases stood at Bt1.22 billion.

The government is now targeting 20-per-cent growth in EEC investment for a total Bt430 billion this year, thanks to policies driving higher foreign confidence, the DIW said.

“The higher investment has come from the promotion policy in 10 targeted industries in the EEC,” Thongchai Chawalitpichaet, DIW director-general, said.

“Investment in the latter half of the year is forecast to be higher than in the first, after formation of the new government which could prompt higher confidence among investors.

“Meanwhile, although the US-China trade war has eased, it remains a risk that is raising concerns for investors, the government and related agencies. Investor confidence must be built up.”

In the first half of this year, 2,064 factories in have lodged requests for new operations and expansion, down 18.06 per cent. Employment dropped 5.45 per cent to 92,262 jobless.

Topping the list of total requests for new operations and expansion were petroleum companies, with investment of Bt38.53 billion, followed by food firms at Bt28.89 billion and electrical appliance producers (Bt19.57 billion).

Topping the list of investment in the total 1,659 new factories was the food industry with Bt19.30 billion, followed by the petroleum industry at Bt16.79 billion and the electrical appliances industry (Bt14.21 billion).

The list of investment in expansion at 405 factories was headed by the petroleum products industry at Bt89.69 billion, followed by food industry (Bt9.59 billion).

“Lower employment has resulted partly from development of workforce capacity and automation, including robots,” Thongchai said.

He added that the department had tightened conditions for industrial waste management, particularly in the EEC, and also shifted its Chon Buri training centre to the Eastern Pollution Analysis and Safety Centre.

The department is also promoting the creation of plants to manage industrial waste, which amounts to about 30 million tonnes per year.

The North has only one industrial waste management plant per 102 factories, while the South has one per 121 factories, and the Northeast one per 101 factories. The East meanwhile has a far higher ratio of one industrial waste management plant for every 12 factories.

“Industrial waste management plants should be situated in industrial estates, or else an estate for industrial waste management should be established,” Thongchai said.

The department has handed its plan to Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand for consideration and will talk to provincial governors about the possibility of establishing more plants.

So far, 48.52 per cent of the total 67,989 plants have registered for the industrial waste management system.

The department expects most of the remainder to register within 4-5 years.

Cabinet ministers agreed to create a binding debt across the fiscal year, a central budget for emergency reserves and Bt751.62 million for the SRT to hire consultants on the high-speed electric train project, said Athit Chaiyanuwat, assistant to the Prime Minister’s Office.

The SRT’s Thai-Chinese Railway Cooperation committee recently conducted its 25th meeting to discuss the Nakhon Ratchasima-Nong Khai line as part of joint high-speed rail projects due for completion in 2022.

Thailand will be responsible for designing the civil works of the railway project while China will offer technical assistance in construction.

The Bt751.62-million budget will be split, with Bt112.24 million covering 2019 and Bt638.88 million for the 2020-2021 period.

The budget will also cover three categories.

Personal compensation will account for Bt506.92 million, split into compensation for key personnel (Bt420.18 million) and for personnel expenses (Bt86.74 million).

Direct expenses will account for Bt195.51 million, divided into office expenses (Bt33.7 million) and cost of exploration, testing and other direct expenses (Bt161.81 million).

The third category will cover VAT, accounting for Bt49.1 million of the budget.

The Budget Bureau said these expenses must not exceed 8 per cent of the annual expenditure budget.

The research, surveying 2,300 avid travellers aged between 20-45 in 11 Asia Pacific countries (Apac) and segmented by life stage, explored the travel motivations, aspirations and expectations of the region’s most active travellers.

“Travel is a deep passion for most travellers in Asia Pacific,” said Sarah Somerville, Hilton’s senior director/customer engagement, loyalty and partnerships, Asia Pacific. “It gives them a real sense of pride and has become a core part of how they define themselves. Today’s travellers want to live like locals, feel inspired by the places they visit and experience a transformative journey that is wholly their own. They also embrace the role technology can play, not only in making their travel experience more efficient, but also in enhancing the planning stage through the use of augmented reality and virtual reality technologies.”

The 2019 study comprised an extensive quantitative survey of travellers aged 20-45 and in-depth interviews with Gen Y travel taste-makers. The study revealed three key themes: travel and the role it plays in identity, technology and the future of travel, and the importance of experiential travel.

Eighty-nine per cent of respondents feel ‘being able to travel is a point of pride for me’, with 88 per cent saying their ‘love of travel is a huge part of how they define themselves’. This was even more important for young families, defined as 20-35-year-old couples with children (91 per cent), singles (85 per cent) and couples (82 per cent).

The sentiment of travel being formative to identity is strongest in Indonesia (97 per cent), India (95 per cent), Philippines (94 per cent), Thailand (94 per cent) and Vietnam (92 per cent).

When it comes to the personal benefits of travel, there is a sense that it empowers people to feel more ‘knowledgeable’ (55 per cent) and ‘open-minded’ (51 per cent). One survey respondent shared: “As the comedian Trevor Noah said “Travelling is the antidote to ignorance.” What truly motivates me to travel is the excitement, the urge to experience different cultures, food, to meet new people and live their lives for those few days. As the quote says, travelling is the solution to ignorance”.

Three in four Asia Pacific travellers aspire to be an ‘expert’ within their social circle and the first to discover new locations. Interestingly, wanting to be ‘the first one of their friends to visit or experience a destination’ is significantly more important to young families (82 per cent), as compared to singles (69 per cent) and couples (59 per cent).

Traditional sources of information, such as word-of-mouth (55 per cent), online travel publications (50 per cent), official tourism websites and the social media accounts of friends and family (both 49 per cent), serve as travel inspiration for travellers today. However, travellers in Asia Pacific see a clear role for technology tomorrow – with virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) being essential in delivering a more fun and immersive experience:

· Virtual fun: Two in five travellers believe that the use of VR and AR could help make travel more fun in the future. Forty-five per cent also saw the potential of virtual/inanimate influencers as a source of influence for their next destination.

· Immersive inspiration: One in two travellers would be enticed by ‘virtual or augmented reality’ tours of their destination to get inspiration for their holiday.

· Smooth sailing: More than half of Apac travellers feel that technology can be adopted to speed up check-in and manage their whole trip better. Young families are more likely to see the benefits of tech being used by updating them with push alerts (48 per cent), offering inspiration on destinations (49 per cent), and delivering tailored in-room entertainment (40 per cent).

Aspirations around ‘travelling the world’ tops travellers’ bucket lists – though it is the desire to try new experiences and connect with culture that is cited most:

· Making it count: Two in three travellers seek ‘once-in-a-lifetime experiences’ as a key aspect of travel that they desire. This is largely driven by younger travellers (73 per cent of 20-24-year-olds).

· Extraordinary experiences: The ‘uniqueness of the destination or experience’ has the most influence on deciding where people want to travel (55 per cent). This is more important to young families (63 per cent) than singles or couples (both 48 per cent), and to travellers in Indonesia (76 per cent), Philippines (71 per cent), Vietnam (67 per cent) and India (66 per cent).

While cultural immersion has been a trending travel phenomenon, specific types of experiences are being sought out by Asia Pacific travellers:

· Tracing the roots of local cuisine: Visiting a local food market to learn and pick your own ingredients for an authentic meal is by far the top experience that Apac travellers desire (38 per cent). One respondent shared: “Trying the local dishes is too simple, I would like to track back to where all the ingredients are raised, grown or caught and try remake the dishes from the beginning. Talking about it already makes me super excited!”.

· Access and authenticity: VIP experiences associated with ‘private access’ (73 per cent) and ‘local culture and authenticity’ (71 per cent) both play an important role in attracting travellers to visit a new or different destination.

· Region of Japanophiles: Japan continues to top Asia Pacific travellers’ bucket list of travel destinations, with Australia not far behind. However, beyond Japan’s spectacular landscape, local experiences around culture and cuisine have strong influence in attracting them to visit.