Wing Commander Suthirawat Suwanawat said the arrival of flights and passengers during the winter season, which begins in October, is expected to increase by two to three per cent compared to last year.

He added that passenger arrivals at the airport last October averaged between180,000 and 190,000 a day while while the number of arrivals in June was about 160,000 a day.

Passenger arrivals averaged 200,000 per day for ten consecutive days from late December to early January.

Wing Commander Suthirawat noted that Chinese tourists have also started returning to Thailand and several Chinese airlines have requested landing slots. A few have been rejected due to too tight schedules.

The general manager said the airport expected to see the number of arriving passengers at the end of this year stand at about 66 million to 68 million, an increase over 62.81 million from the previous year.

In just the last 30 years, poverty has declined substantially, going from 67 per cent in 1986 to 7.8 per cent in 2017.

“At the World Bank, we are particularly proud of our partnership with the Government of Thailand and are honoured to have been given a chance to help deliver tangible results and have a positive impact on the lives of the Thai people over the last seven decades,” said Mara Warwick, the World Bank’s Country Director for Thailand, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.

The Thailand-World Bank partnership has evolved over time with the changing global context. In the early years, the international institution’s direct financial assistance to Thai development concentrated on the building of basic infrastructure – roads, dams, irrigation works, electricity infrastructure, rail transport and port facilities – all of which helped to boost production and commercial activity in the country. Seventy years later, Thailand has grown into a dynamic middle-income country, and the relationship has benefited from not only financing but also analytical work and policy advice from the World Bank Group.

“As part of our knowledge-based partnership of today, we advise the Government of Thailand on key reforms and policy issues,” said Birgit Hansl, World Bank’s Country Manager for Thailand. “With this partnership we seek to improve the lives of people by ensuring that they and the Thai economy are prepared for the main challenges of ageing and digital transformation, improving the quality of education so future generations can take part in Thailand’s growth, and by safeguarding that the marginalized also benefit from Thailand’s prosperity.”

The 70th anniversary coincides with the launch of the new Country Partnership Framework of the World Bank Group and the Government of Thailand, which is aligned to the country’s 20-Year National Strategy and 12th National Economic and Social Development Plan.

The Country Partnership Framework is anchored around a broad engagement on Thailand’s development path towards greater inclusion, resilience and competitiveness. Looking ahead, the Group looks forward to expanding its support to help Thailand improve its business environment, fiscal and economic management and infrastructure in a rapidly expanding digital economy and in the context of a rapidly aging society. It aims to promote higher equality, higher quality of education, and support targeted policies and programmes for inclusion of disadvantaged and vulnerable groups, including in conflict-affected areas of southern Thailand.

Meanwhile, outcome of  the expected trade negotiations in July are difficult to gauge. Stock markets worldwide have already priced in this factor.  On July 1-2, the Opec and non-Opec countries will meet at a semi-annual meeting, with investors’ attention on an extension of the deadline for reduction of crude production capacity to December 31, 2019 from the previous deadline of June 30, 2019.

The estimated reduction was made by the Iraqi minister at 1.2 million barrels or more if proposed in the meeting. We expect Brent crude price to swing in a range of US$63-$68 a barrel on one-month ahead. It will be positive to PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP.

Besides, investors are keeping an eye on the Fed chairman’s briefing on the US economic performance in the first half of this year and the outlook for the second  half to the US Congress on July 10.

We expect the Fed to hint of a rate cut by 25 basis points in the FOMC meeting on  July 30-31, which could affect continuous capital inflow in the Thai capital and bond markets. During June 1-27, about Bt47 billion worth of capital, as a result of the MSCI rebalancing, moved into the Thai stock market. About Bt20 billion of capital is expected to move into the Thai stock market this month. Industrial estates – AMATA and WHA and retailers like CPALL, MAKRO, BJC, ROBINS are expected to gain from the government’s economic stimulus. Food firms like CPF, GFPT, TFG, TU are expected to reap benefits from increased prices,  and power plants such as EGCO, RATCH, GPSC are expected to gain from a new round of investment.

Saravut Tachochavalit

Senior Vice President, Research Department

RHB Securities (Thailand)

Hope for continued

capital inflows

The stock market will be watching the development of the following issues and their impact on

capital inflows, including

–  Solutions to the US-China trade disputes after the G20 meeting

–  The US’s PMI in June today

– The Opec meeting on crude production capacity which will affect global crude prices

– Announcement of the US trade deficit of  US$50 billion on Wednesday

– The figures on unemployment and non-farm employment in the US labour market

We keep a positive view on continued capital inflows to the SET,  with an estimated movement range of 1,715-1,765 points.

Our picks:

MINT: fundamental price of Bt44.0

BGC: fundamental price of Bt15.0

TRUE: fundamental price of Bt7.77

Passakorn Linmaneechote

Deputy Managing Director – Research

Kasikorn Securities