SET forecast to rise on back of US-China trade negotiations

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30372033

SET forecast to rise on back of US-China trade negotiations

Breaking News July 01, 2019 10:16

By The Nation

Krungsri Securities Plc forecasts that the SET index on Monday will rise to 1,740-1,745 points following the positive news that USA and China are to return to the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, oil prices went up to more US$59 per barrel following Russia’s agreement with Saudi Arabia to extend by six to nine months a deal with Opec to reduce oil production.

However, the company reiterated its warning to investors about selling to make a quick profit.

The SET Index closes on Friday at 1,730.34 with a trade value of Bt61.33 billion.

On monday’s morning SET index opens 1,744.83  or up 14.49 points with trade value Bt11.97 billion.

Market Watch

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30372029

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Market Watch

Breaking News July 01, 2019 09:21

By The Nation

Two experts look ahead to what July is likely to bring

Passakorn Linmaneechote

Deputy Managing Director – Research

Kasikorn Securities

Hope for continued capital inflows

We will follow the solutions to the US-China trade disputes after the G20 meeting, while also monitoring the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for June due for release today (July 1). Attention will also be paid to the Opec meeting this week on crude production capacity, which will affect the global crude prices. Figures due for release on Wednesday (July 3) are likely to confirm that the US is expected to face a trade deficit of US$50 billion. And on Friday, we will be looking at the US labour market figures such as unemployment and non-farm employment.

In the meantime, we expect capital inflow to the SET with an estimated movement range of 1,715-1,765 points.

MINT: fundamental price of Bt44.0

BGC: fundamental price of Bt15.0

TRUE: fundamental price of Bt7.77

Saravut Tachochavalit

Senior Vice President, Research Department

RHB Securities (Thailand)

Follow up foreign capital movement

This week, the world is expected to follow up on the G20 summit, with Chinese media reporting that the US and China have agreed to temporarily halt more tariffs. Meanwhile, the results of the likely trade negotiations this July are very difficult to guess. Stock markets worldwide have already priced in this news. The Opec and non-Opec countries will meet today and tomorrow (July 1-2), with investors’ attention on an extension of the deadline for reduction of crude production capacity to December 31, 2019 from the previous deadline on June 30. The Iraqi Minister estimated a reduction of at least 1.2 million barrels although this could be more if proposed at the meeting. We expect Brent crude price to swing in a range of US$63-$68 a barrel on one month ahead. This will be positive for PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP. Besides, investors are keeping an eye on the Fed chairman who is scheduled to give economic information in the first half of this year and economic outlook in the latter half to the US Congress on July 10. We expect the Fed to signal a rate cut by 25 basis points in the FOMC meeting during July 30-31, which could affect continuous capital inflow in the Thai capital market and bond market. From June 1-27, about Bt47 billion worth of capital, as a result of MSCI rebalance, moved into the Thai stock market. About Bt20 billion of capital is expected to move into the Thai stock market this July. Industrial estates – AMATA and WHA and retailers like CPALL, MAKRO, BJC, ROBINS are expected to gain from the government’s economic stimulus. Food firms like CPF, GFPT, TFG, TU are expected to reap benefits from increased prices and power plants such as EGCO, RATCH, GPSC are expected to gain from a new round of investment.

Thai exports feel the pinch of US-China trade war

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30372026

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Thai exports feel the pinch of US-China trade war

Economy July 01, 2019 09:15

By The Nation

The ongoing trade war between the US and China has had an impact on Thai exports worth up to US$2.1 billion this year alone, according to research by Kasikorn Research Centre released on Friday.

The research said that if the negotiations between USA and China were unable to put a stop to a proposed increase in tariffs on a further US$300 billion of good, the impact to Thailand exports would reach US$3.1 billion in 2019.

This would also impact the country’s exports going into 2020, the research said.

Huge potential seen in MAINTENANCE work

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371913

Huge potential seen in MAINTENANCE work

Economy July 01, 2019 01:00

By PHUWIT LIVIPHWUAT,
SUPALAK GANJANAKHUNDEE
THE NATION

WHILE THAILAND’S aeronautical industry will see a rapid expansion in the next 20 years as the country is set to become the Asean region’s hub for aircraft maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO), strong political will and a “mechanism” are needed to make the fuller ambition come true.

Airbus and national flag carrier Thai Airways (THAI) signed a joint venture for MRO facilities at U-tapao Airport in Rayong province, in June 2018. Creating an MRO hub at U-tapao Airport, located in one of the three provinces in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) special economic zone, has been one of the EEC’s flagship projects since its launch under the Thailand 4.0 policy in 2016.

Foreign investors see the potential for growth in Thailand’s aeronautical industry in the next two decades. This year, some 7,000 aircraft will fly across the Asia Pacific region, and the number is expected to reach 20,000 over the next 20 years, according to Airbus.

“Hence, there is a need to increase maintenance capacity in the Asian-Pacific region,” said Pierre Jaffre, president of Airbus Asia Pacific.

The government’s Thailand 4.0 policy and the development of the EEC, he said, present a promising opportunity for Airbus to meet this demand, and has led it to establish an MRO centre in cooperation with THAI in Rayong.

“Of all the EEC projects, the MRO hub at U-tapao Airport has the highest possibility for success,” said Phacharaphot Nuntramas, senior vice president for global business development and strategy group at Krungthai Macro Research.

This, he explained in an interview with The Nation, is because the aeronautical industry in Thailand has strong fundamentals with more opportunities to grow in the economic environment of the Asean region.

Particularly, he said, there has been a growth of smaller airlines such as AirAsia and Vietjet in the region, and the aircraft from these smaller carriers will require maintenance.

“The other key MRO centre in the region is located in Singapore, which faces the challenge of limited land space,” he continued. The growth of smaller airlines means that smaller-sized aircraft will be used more often, leading to a growth in the demand for maintenance space”

“This market trend presents an opportunity for the MRO centre at U-tapao to rise and become Southeast Asia’s new regional MRO hub,” Phacharaphot stated.

Looking at the big picture, the MRO centre is a key plank in the development plans of the aeronautical industry, said Thailand’s former ambassador to France, Sihasak, Phuangketkeow, who helped THAI and Airbus conclude the MRO deal last year, adding that Thailand needs to ensure the sector’s future growth.

Thailand has great potential in the sector, as the Kingdom is already a regional aviation hub and boasts a strong automobile and electronics manufacturing base on which to build an aircraft and spacecraft sector, he said.

The country has already developed legal instruments to encourage foreign investment, not only for the MRO sector but also for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), said Sihasak who is now an advisor to the EEC project. “We are improving our ecosystem to accommodate S-curve technology industries,” he said.

The TIROS II with Airbus could also be spun off to encourage a future space industry in the country, as the technology transfer could help Thais to develop the sector, he said.

The biggest challenge to the long-term development of the MRO centre, like other projects in the EEC, is the imminent lack of skilled labour, Phacharaphot said. Sihasak agreed and added that the country also needed to compete with neighbouring Asean countries, notably Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam which have had a stronger focus on the aviation and aeronautical industry.

“Our strength is that our workforces have a strong commitment to their work and our airbases with huge space, like U-tapao, are available,” he said. “We are also aiming higher to build an ‘aerotropolis’ in the region.” Research has shown that in the next 10 years, the targeted ‘S-Curve’ technological industries in the EEC will require an additional one million workers, with almost 500,000 jobs in demand in the next five years, according to the EEC office. The research also revealed that the aeronautical industry will demand an additional 30,000 skilled workers in the next half-decade.

To meet this demand, Phacharaphot suggested, the supply-side will need to quickly develop the appropriate curricula to build a capable labour force to support the growth of the aeronautical industry in the next two decades.

An alternative solution is to recruit foreign talent to, for example, operate the MRO centre in U-tapao. The government has been issuing “Smart Visas” since February 2018 to allow highly trained foreign talents working in the targeted ‘S-Curve’ technological industries to work in the Kingdom for up to four years without having to renew their visas yearly.

However, adoption of the Smart Visa has been disappointing, with only approximately 100 foreign talents so far having been issued the special visa in the past year, according to the Digital Economy Promotion Agency (DEPA).

More importantly, Sihasak said, both the government and private sector should have a clear joint vision and a strong will to get aboard the S-Curve technology industry. The country should have a national mechanism to move this sector forward, he said. “We cannot just wait for foreign investment and technology transfer to develop the aeronautical industry,” he said.

Thailand International Dog Show set for July 4-7

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371938

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Thailand International Dog Show set for July 4-7

Breaking News June 28, 2019 18:56

By THE NATION

2,363 Viewed

IMPACT has injected Bt30 million into this year’s Thailand International Dog Show that will be held under the “Dog’s Fit City” theme.

The event, which will take up more than 10,000 square metres of exhibition space, will be held at Hall 5-6, IMPACT Muang Thong Thani during July 4-7, from 10am to 8pm.

Over 200 local and international exhibitors will be showcasing the latest dog care products and services and offering discounted items to over 200,000 visitors. The event will also feature an array of dog contests and activities for dog lovers.

Tiraya Thongkerd, senior project manager, IMPACT Exhibition Management Co Ltd, said that the SmartHeart show is a collaboration between IMPACT Exhibition Management Co Ltd, the Kennel Association of Thailand (KATH), and the Thai Pet Product Industries Association (TPIA).

Now in its 18th year, the show is still proving to be Thailand’s most anticipated event for dog lovers and the largest of its kind in Asean. It is also considered the largest dog care market in Thailand.

Highlighted activities include the FCI Thailand International Dog Show, in which over 5,000 dogs of all breeds from all over the world compete for the trophy of honour, decided by a professional judges panel and based on internationally agreed judging criteria.

There will also be a Pitbull Weight Pulling Championship, a dog grooming competition featuring the country’s top professionals, a dog bed and wheelchair workshop, a pottery workshop by Ban Din Yen, Lollipop Cake Catering: DIY dog cake decoration, DIY dog accessories and a wide array of fun-filled activities.

Issuer defaults rise in Asia but region remains strong

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371906

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Issuer defaults rise in Asia but region remains strong

Breaking News June 28, 2019 11:34

By The Nation

Three companies rated by S&P Global Ratings, including one confidential issuer, defaulted in Asia in 2018, up from two corporate defaults in 2017, S&P Global Fixed Income Research said on Friday.

Nevertheless, the number of rated entities in the region has continued to grow, resulting in a drop in the annual speculative-grade default rate to 0.48 per cent in 2018 from 1.18 per cent in 2017.

Net total rated issuers grew by 9.4 per cent to 835 issuers in 2018 from 763 issuers the previous year. Newly rated issuers in the region increased by 19.4 per cent, despite growing concerns about a global economic slowdown, rising interest rates and trade tensions.

“S&P Global Ratings assigned ratings to 148 new issuers in Asia in 2018, an increase from 124 in 2017,” said Diane Vazza, head of S&P Global Fixed Income Research of the rating agency’s “2018 Annual Asia Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study”.

Speculative-grade (rated BB+ or lower) issuers account for more than half of newly rated companies in Asia, a sign of both increased risk and of the growing palatability of riskier credits in the region, which is still by and large dominated by the investment-grade category (BBB- or higher).

Together, the three defaults in Asia accounted for just 0.3 per cent of the $131.65 billion in global debt affected by the total 82 defaults in 2018. The average number of annual defaults in Asia since 1993 is 3.4, compared with a global average (since 1981) of 72.5.

Moreover, 80.6 per cent of ratings in Asia remained unchanged between January 1, 2018, and year-end, further demonstrating the relative stability of the majority of credit ratings in the region. Only 6.6 per cent of rated entities from Asia were upgraded over the course of the year, while 5.8 per cent were downgraded.

The one-year weighted average (1993-2018) Gini coefficient (a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon) for rated Asian corporate issuers was 87.0 per cent, while the one-year weighted average (1981-2018) Gini coefficient globally was 82.50 per cent.

Somkid sees rosy economic outlook in immediate future

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371889

Somkid sees rosy economic outlook in immediate future

Breaking News June 28, 2019 08:51

By The Nation

While Thai Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak says he has not been surprised by economic projections recently made by public and private economic houses, he is expressing confidence that once the new government is firmly in place the prime minister will be able to continue implementing the national plans.

Opening an exhibition at Bangkok International Trade and Exhibition Centre yesterday, Somkid said that the research agencies’ downward revision of their estimates for the nation’s economic growth was normal as the Thai economy has slowed down on the back of political matters. With the political situation becoming more certain and the government on the eve of formation, the new prime minister will be able to continue driving government policy.

The Thai economy has very strong fundamentals and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index has continued rising from capital inflows from foreign investors confident in the Thai economy.

In the event that the fiscal 2020 budget is delayed, it could affect the disbursement and investment budget in the latter half of this year, said Somkid. There will be a push on executing the government’s previously approved mega projects with a fast disbursement of funds in order to get that money circulating in the Thai economy.

Somkid has also asked the private sector to pay attention on adjustments as, based on the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, Thailand’s private-sector competitiveness ranking did not go up. That reflected the Thai private sector’s need to adjust itself to cope with fast technological changes such as the internet of things and Big Data.

With Japanese industry having moved into Industry 5.0, which applies higher technology to enhance production efficiency, Thai private enterprises in several industries are in Japan’s supply chains, Somkid said.

If Thai private enterprises could not make adjustments in time, it may be difficult for them to link with Japanese supply chains in the future, he said.

Regarding the Pracha Rat project and the state welfare cards, Somkid said that he wanted to see large-sized private enterprises join the project in order to expand its ability to help low-income earners. Large-sized private enterprises will also be able to aid SMEs, which would be a good project, he added.

Tax bosses eye Facebook currency tax

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371890

Tax bosses eye Facebook currency tax

Economy June 27, 2019 18:28

By The Nation

The Revenue Department (RD) said that Facebook’s new Libra currency will face a 15 per cent withholding tax if the digital currency is a digital asset.

The department is awaiting the Securities and Exchange Commission’s consideration.

Ekniti Nitithanprapas, revenue director-general, said that digital transactions will be increasing and the department has to adjust itself.

The Libra token will be launched next year.

Now, the department has been using the digital system to facilitate taxpayers.

In particular, the department employs the digital system in the jurisdiction person registration, having a linkage with Department of Business Development for business operators’ online value added tax registration and allowing the private sector to develop Revenue Department’s digital system.

The problem for tax collection on online transactions in the digital world is that, by law, businesses which will be taxed must have a permanent residence in Thailand.

However, online business does not need to have a permanent residence in Thailand by being registered in any countries and will not levied a corporate income tax in Thailand.

“Now, the OECD [Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development] is considering the problem and must have international cooperation. If only Thailand taxes, it will not succeed,” Ekniti said.

From the beginning of this year to May, the Revenue Department’s tax collection was Bt38 billion higher that its target, from higher tax collection efficiency with the digital system and rises in crude prices.

Ekniti expressed confidence that the tax collection will meet the target of Bt2 trillion in this fiscal year.

In regard to the single account scheme, about 67,000 businesses already registered for adjusting their balance sheets with a deadline on this October 1.

Ekniti said that the policy of the Palang Pracharat Party of a 10 per cent tax reduction in every tax ladder, means the department is studying its impacts to the fiscal stance, pros and cons, estimated revenue loss and types of revenue as substitutes.

Govt reveals Bt276bn deficit

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371881

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Govt reveals Bt276bn deficit

Economy June 27, 2019 17:42

By The Nation

Fiscal budget in the first eight months of this year (October 2018-May) deficit is Bt275.87 billion, according to Lavaron Sangsnit, Director–General of the Fiscal Policy Office and Finance Ministry’s spokesperson said on Thursday.

He said the government has received Bt1.563 trillion in revenue during the period.

The government budget disbursement was at Bt2.128 trillion.

To finance the deficit, the government has borrowed Bt275.879 billion.

Therefore, the treasury reserve at the end of May was at Bt319.26 billion, he said.

More Thais go cashless during the Songkran: Visa

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30371868

More Thais go cashless during the Songkran: Visa

Economy June 27, 2019 15:25

By THE NATION

Visa says during Songkran its cardholders made 15 per cent more transactions, spending 6 per cent more during the 2019 holiday compared to the year prior.

The data indicates more Thais are embracing digital payments for making purchases both in stores and online as the country is pushing towards becoming a less-cash society.

Suripong Tantiyanon of Visa Thailand said: “This spending data validates the steady progress of the nation towards becoming a less-cash society. Thai consumers are becoming increasingly confident in using digital payments, supported by the governments push for the adoption of e-payments.”

Travelling inland or abroad has become a notable trend during Songkran. The data revealed that 39 per cent of Thai Visa cardholders spent within Thailand, 57 per cent used their Visa cards in their residential provinces and 4 per cent made purchases abroad with Visa cards during the holiday season.

“We are excited to see the greater adoption and usage of digital payments among Thai consumers. It is our hope that by sharing these insights, the payment industry at large can leverage this data for developing products and services that meet the ever-changing demand of Thai consumers, ultimately accelerating the country toward a less-cash society,” Suripong said.