Pricey Singapore holds on to Top 5 ranking

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Pricey Singapore holds on to Top 5 ranking

Economy April 18, 2019 01:00

By THE NATION

SINGAPORE has become the fourth-most expensive location in Asia for business travel, with a typical business trip there costing an average of US$468 a day.

This was one of the findings of the latest Daily Rates research published by ECA International, a provider of information and software for the management of employees around the world.

“The cost of a business trip to Singapore has stayed relatively static due to the steady level of international business travel to the country,” said Lee Quane, regional director for Asia at ECA International.

“However, the price of a hotel room has dropped slightly, down to US$249 per night from $256 in 2018. Despite this small decrease in the average price, the demand remained at about the same level. Singapore continues to be popular for international business, as illustrated by the fact that Singapore remains in the top five most expensive Asian locations.”

ECA’s Daily Rates reports provide average costs for hotel accommodation, which makes up the bulk of any daily allowance, as well as meals, drinks, laundry, taxi transport and daily essentials. This information is used by companies to determine daily expense allowances for staff who undertake business travel.

Elsewhere in the region, Bangkok has seen an increase in the cost of business travel, with the typical business trip costing US$290 a day.

“We have seen a continued increase in the cost of goods and services and hotel accommodation in Bangkok, and this has had a clear effect on the cost of business travel to the city,” said Quane. “As an increasing number of companies and MNCs look to grow their influence in Thailand and the surrounding areas, we have seen the price of hotel stays and business trip essentials rise accordingly.”

For the second successive year, Hong Kong has been named as the most expensive location in Asia for business travel. The average business trip to Hong Kong would cost an overall total of US$515 per day, including hotel costs of US$286.

“Hong Kong has always been one of the most expensive Asian locations to visit on business, due to the combination of a high cost of goods and services and expensive hotel prices,” Quane said. “However, in recent years, we have seen Hong Kong pull away slightly from other expensive locations such as Tokyo, Seoul and Singapore. This year has been no different, with Hong Kong now costing 4 per cent more than Tokyo and 8 per cent more than Seoul – two locations that are in second and third places respectively.”

Tokyo remains second in the Asia rankings, with the typical business trip now costing US$494 a day. Seoul is in third place based on the overall price of a business trip. However, the South Korean capital moves above Tokyo into second place if hotel costs are excluded.

“We expect to see the costs of business travel to Tokyo increase over the next 12 months due the city hosting major events such as the Rugby World Cup as well as the Olympic and Paralympic games between now and the end of 2020,” Quane said.

“This, together with the city’s emergence as a major tourist destination in recent years and a shortage of suitable accommodation, contribute to high hotel costs. Also, recent regulatory changes which reduce the availability of other short-term accommodation options such as Airbnb are likely to drive a further increase in accommodation costs in the coming year.

“The fact that Seoul moves to second place in the rankings when hotel costs are excluded shows that the price of food, drinks, and other incidentals that make up the overall cost of a trip is actually higher in Seoul than Tokyo. This is a trend we see in many locations, where the hotel cost can inflate the overall figure. This demonstrates the importance of looking at all aspects of a business trip, and not necessarily just the combined cost,” said Quane.

In China, the most expensive business trip destination is Shanghai, at US$378 per day.

“Although a business trip to Shanghai would be relatively expensive compared to other Chinese cities, Shanghai is outside of the top 10 most expensive locations in Asia for business travel, and outside of the top 100 globally.”

However, when hotel costs are excluded from the total price, Chinese cities are all much higher placed in the rankings as hotel costs in China are comparatively cheaper than many other locations across the world.

“When excluding the cost of hotels from the price of an overall business trip, the data shows a different story. Every Chinese city in our rankings would be much higher placed, notably with Shanghai jumping from 117th in the world to 89th, and Beijing entering the global top 100 as well,” Quane said.

The cheapest location in ECA’s rankings was Johor Bahru in Malaysia, where a business trip would cost just US$184 per day, with hotel costs accounting for just US$83 of this amount.

New York is the most expensive location in the world for business travel, with the average per day cost of a business trip standing at US$799.

“New York tops the rankings for another year as the price of business travel continues to grow,” Quane said.

Financial services’ perfect storm

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Nontawat Poomchusri, country managing director and financial services practice lead for Accenture in Thailand
Nontawat Poomchusri, country managing director and financial services practice lead for Accenture in Thailand

Financial services’ perfect storm

Economy April 18, 2019 01:00

By SPECIAL TO THE NATION

THE financial services industry is undergoing a perfect storm of transformation caused by changes in the regulatory environment, intense competition from fintech startups and increased investments in digital tools by traditional players.

Predicting the future is a tough task and in an industry that’s changing as fast as financial services, that’s even harder, but as we look ahead into 2019, there are some cues we can take from the focus banks, insurers and asset managers are making in Thailand and elsewhere in Asia Pacific to revamp their technology for smoother integration with tech giants.

The year ahead should also see financial firms making more use of big data to launch entirely new products and develop more tailored pricing, as well as increase their efforts on digital solutions for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and corporate banking. This list is by no means exhaustive, but hopefully it’s a good start to get people excited about 2019. So, here are some of the top trends to keep an eye on this year:

1) Technology upgrades for better integration with digital giants: For established banks and insurers, it’s important to upgrade and elevate their enterprise technology and expertise to the same level of digital sophistication of Internet giants and platform players such as Line in Thailand and Japan, Alibaba in China or Flipkart in India.

That will help them with breakthrough, more integrated financial services products. Nowadays, for example, you have leading insurance players in India, Singapore and other countries in Asia Pacific selling a number of protection products through e-commerce sites, ride-hailing apps or online travel companies.

Banks in Thailand are also partnering with digital giants to make sure they are an integral part of their customers’ daily life. The question every bank and insurance Chief Information Officer should be asking now is: how can I make sure we have the right technology and culture in place so that we can integrate our products and services and be nimble enough to partner with the big tech/digital players?

2) Enhanced pricing with digital tools and wider use of big data: Digitisation will need to move from optimizing the overall customer experience to product design and be more central in developing sophisticated pricing models. Financial services firms should make more use of big data for the purpose of pricing, especially for segments where structured data availability is very limited and particularly where pricing is limited.

Having that ready will help banks and insurers develop and offer structured bundled products: think having your car insurance, along with home insurance, along with a savings account as one offering. In Thailand, for example, we already have insurance companies using tools such as Internet of Things (IOT) devices to collect more data in order to provide custom pricing, a trend that should become more prevalent as the technology and know-how around big data analytics gets more widespread.

3) Think small to make it big: There will be a greater focus on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Thailand and other Southeast Asia markets in the coming year, given the macro outlook for greater protectionism and rising nationalism around the world. Financial services firms should heed that call and focus on offering more banking and insurance products to SMEs, but in order to better service that segment they’ll have to use more big data for the purpose of underwriting policies, for example, and use digital channels for smarter and more efficient distribution of financial products to SMEs, which has been lacking in most countries in the region.

4) Direct-to-consumer (D2C) links to improve governance pitfalls: In a world with increased scrutiny of conduct by financial service providers, insurance companies and wealth management firms will have to focus on building a more direct relationship with their customers, rather than having an over-reliance on commission-based relationships via agents, as these can be prone to poorer/weaker governance. Digital will be the fastest, most efficient way for financial firms to do that, given the prevalence of smartphones and other devices at the hands of millions of people in the region. Companies will likely begin to sell services and products through their apps directly to consumers, bypassing the middlemen and creating a more agile and efficient business.

5) The evolution of human-assisted roboadvice: Fully automated wealth management services and roboadvice tools have been all the rage the past years. We will see a much greater level of simplification and digitization in the area of wealth management, with an increased focus and greater maturity in the area of robo-assisted manual advisor.

This hybrid model will combine bid data that financial firms have been building and optimizing the past years with new analytics tools that human advisors can use to create smarter, more nimble and personalized solutions with a human touch that customers want.

Contributed by NONTAWAT POOMCHUSRI, country managing director and financial services practice lead for Accenture in Thailand

How AI will change the way we work

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30367847

Ben Goertzel, CEO of SingularityNET 
Ben Goertzel, CEO of SingularityNET

How AI will change the way we work

Economy April 18, 2019 01:00

By BEN GOERTZEL
SPECIAL TO THE NATION

ASKING today which industries are going to be most impacted by artificial intelligence (AI) in the coming years and decades is much like someone in 1980s asking which industries are going to be most impacted by computer chips and computer software.

In 1980s, it was possible to see that computers were going to revolutionise retail and medicine, but not to forecast the advent of Amazon or Taobao. In fact, the prediction of AI’s future influence is probably even more difficult than was the case for earlier technologies, due to the exponential nature of change in an era of unprecedented connectivity.

What is clear is that AI and its associated technologies will continue to advance. In Southeast Asia alone, the adoption of AI technologies stood at 14 per cent in 2018, a marked increase from 8 per cent in the previous year.

The use of AI will only trend upwards as organisations turn to this technology to plug the skills gap created by the digital transformation of traditional industries. This is set against the backdrop of a potential talent deficit of 47 million workers across Asia Pacific by 2030.

As AI becomes mainstream, today’s AI capabilities will expand to address more general uses, otherwise known as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Once this happens, there will be fewer tasks that humans are able to perform more efficiently or economically than can machines. The unique economic value of humans will then be restricted to special cases such as psychological therapy, entertainment and arts, or roles that require human engagement or interaction to deliver value.

Before we get there, we must acknowledge that AI will not generally take over the human workforce all at once. Instead, it will start by prompting businesses to reorganise their structures to best leverage the strengths AI has to offer. In doing so, portions of people’s jobs will be reallocated to AI, giving way to the creation of new roles and requiring humans to upskill themselves accordingly.

For example, AI will first take on more routine accounting work such as calculations and backend processes, similarly to intelligent adaptive Excel macros, while allowing accountants to handle strategic decision-making and customer interactions. Only with the emergence of AGI over time will we see AI taking over these roles and by then, only a handful of humans will be needed to oversee the running of an organisation’s entire finance function.

When this happens, we would be living in the reality of the hyper-intelligent workplace, where humans will simply provide mission-critical thinking, while incorporating the intuitive skill sets of AI and robots for increased productivity.

A key thing to note is that AI will not instantaneously eliminate jobs or job functions. Using the case of biological lab testing as an example, the equipment which is already computerised in the main will become more automated and intuitive. Lab robots will then start bridging the gaps between the lab equipment – be it carrying materials from one machine to the other or keeping each area of equipment informed about their respective test subjects, parameters and results.

Thus the role of a lab technician would be gradually replaced by an integrated lab robot system that takes verbal instructions directly from the scientist in charge of the lab. Eventually, the scientist’s role will mainly be to rubber-stamp the AI’s suggestions, knowing that what the scientist needs from the AI has been effectively executed.

Of course, this is not to say that there will be a widespread of automation within all industries. While generic graphic designs can now be done with AI design programs, the conceptualisation of deeply creative new images and visual themes will remain largely in the domain of humans, especially on highly subjective matters that require a highly nuanced understanding of consumer taste and preference.

In general, one may say that among the last job roles to be eliminated will be those relying heavily on novel creativity, strategic decision-making, critical thinking and physical manipulations in life-or-death situations. Yet, among these roles, the routine and labour-intensive tasks will most likely be automated first as that is where most cost savings will be obtained.

To put it into context – there is more money to be saved by automating car driving than helicopter piloting, and more to be saved by automating medical research than particle physics research.

In my view, the reduction of the need for humans to work for a living should be massively positive. In an ideal world, this would free up people’s time to pursue more social, artistic, intellectual and spiritual endeavours. Imagine living in a society where, through the work achieved by technology, the psychology of defining one’s importance, status and identity no longer relies on one’s career or income.

While that is almost sure to be a rocky road given the realities of geopolitical issues and income inequality, projects such as the decentralised AI movement led by SingularityNET aims to smoothe the path towards it in a democratic and participatory way.

Contributed by BEN GOERTZEL, CEO of SingularityNET

NBTC stresses deadline for responses to relief measures

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Takorn Tantasith, secretary-general, NBTC
Takorn Tantasith, secretary-general, NBTC

NBTC stresses deadline for responses to relief measures

Economy April 18, 2019 01:00

By Sirivish Toomgum
The Nation

THE National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) yesterday urged all telecom operators and digital TV licence holders wishing to take up relief measures to inform the regulator by May 10.

NBTC secretary-general Takorn Tantasith stressed the deadline yesterday during a meeting with representatives of the three 900MHz telecom operators and the digital TV licence holders at which he explained the assistance measures issued last week by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

The measures were announced in response to a tough business environment for the operators.

Takorn said those operators electing to take up the assistance can change their minds later if they find they are unhappy with the conditions attached to the measures. Details of the conditions are expected to be announced by the NBTC in late May.

The junta measures offer telecom operators a longer time to pay their 900MHz licence fees, while the digital TV broadcasters will have the option to return their licences to the NBTC. Those wanting to use this right have to inform the NBTC within 30 days.

 However, the relief measures include a condition that makes it mandatory for the 900MHz telecom licence holders to take part in the NBTC’s planned sale of lots on the 700MHz spectrum, expected in June.

They would lose the extended payment facility if they do not take part in the sale and would have to pay as per the original payment schedule of four instalments.

Takorn said that all the terms and conditions of the 700MHz licence sale are expected to be finished by late May.

Advanced Info Service (AIS) chief corporate officer Weerawat Kiattipongthaworn said that AIS would inform the NBTC of its interest to use the right in the relief measures. Speaking on the sidelines of the meeting with the NBTC yesterday, he said a final decision on whether the company would acquire a licence would be up to the AIS board.

Rajiv Bawa, chief corporate affairs and business development officer of Total Access Communication (DTAC), said in a press statement that DTAC acknowledged the merit of the payment extension offer as it confirmed the exorbitant asking price for spectrum in Thailand.

“We will now dialogue with NBTC to seek more clarity on the order before deciding on next steps,” he said. “As we have previously stated, we urge NBTC to publish a clear spectrum roadmap, including time for allocation and fair valuation of available spectrum, before discussing any further auctions.”

Besides the sales of the 700MHz, Takorn said that the NBTC will auction 2.6GHz, 26GHz and 28GHz together on a multiband basis late this year, while it is in talks with the Digital Economy and Society Ministry to reclaim 35GHz from the ministry for auction.

The NBTC will reallocate the 700MHz totalling 45MHz for sale. It is expected to sell three licences, each totalling 15MHz, at between Bt25 billion and Bt27 billion. The telecom operators that grab the licences will start paying for the licence lot next October. The licence term is 15 years.

Takorn said that if no operator decides to acquire the 700MHz, the NBTC will put the licence up for auction.

The NBTC wants to see the telecom operators using the 700MHz to develop a 5G wireless broadband service.

A telecom analyst, who declined to be named, said that the key uncertainty is the price of the 700MHz and the terms of payment. Since the business model of 5G technology remains unclear and 5G potential revenue is still a few years away for Thailand, the analyst believes that acquiring 700MHz too early could reduce or even offset the potential benefit of the 900MHz payment extension.

Under the junta measures, the NBTC will split the total upfront licence fee for the 900MHz spectrum of the three licence holders into 10 instalments, giving them more time for payments from the current four instalments.

The total licence fee will be divided into 10 equal instalments. The first instalment payment under this measure will be on the day they were awarded the 900MHz licences.

AIS’ subsidiary Advanced Wireless Network (AWN) and True’s subsidiary TrueMove H Universal Communication (TUC) are originally scheduled to pay hefty final instalments of Bt59.574 billion and Bt60.218 billion, respectively, for their 900MHz licences in 2020.

DTAC will pay its final instalment for the 900MHz of Bt30.024 billion in 2022.

TUC and AWN won the 900MHz licences in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and DTAC won the licence last year.

The junta measure also allows digital TV licence holders who want to exit their business to inform the NBTC by May 10 of their intention to return their licences.

The NBTC will also reallocate part of their 700MHz for sale to the 900MHz telecom operators. Then the NBTC will compensate the broadcasters by waiving their remaining upfront payments for the fifth and sixth instalments.

The NBTC will also pay the broadcasting network rental fee for all the digital TV licence holders until the end of their remaining licence term of nine years and six months.

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Economy April 18, 2019 01:00

By The Nation

INVESTORS KEEN ON MINISTRY’S SHARES

Several investors are ready to submit tender offers for the Ministry of Finance’s shares in 10 private companies once the share offer plan is approved by policy makers, according to Prapas Kong-Ied , director-genaeral of State Enterprise Policy Office (Sepo).

Prapas said that most of the investors are existing shareholders and “we are ready to consider the offer prices.”

Earlier, the ministry announced the decision to unload its shares in 18 private companies.

Papas explained that the shares on offer mainly came from asset confiscation and are not of a strategic nature.

Sepo had taken charge of these holdings with little return and has proposed to the Finance Ministry and the Cabinet the liquidation of its shares.

On September 27, 2016, the Cabinet approved the ministry to sell its shares in non-listed companies which it holds less than 50 per cent.

RATCH PLANS NEW PLANTS TO REPLACE TRI ENERGY

Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Plc (Ratch) will soon submit an investment plan for two power plants under the Independent Power Producer (IPP) project to the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC). The planned facilities at the company’s land in Ratchaburi province will have a combined capacity of 1,400 megawatts.

Once completed in 2024 and 2015 , the plants will start distributing electricity into the system.

CEO Kijja Sripatthangkura said that plan for the power plant projects will be offered to ERC with better investment condition and at lowest cost. It will replace the Tri Energy Power Plant, which will expire in the near future.

However, the Tri Energy Power Plant will be kept as stand-by unit or it could sell electricity to the neighbouring countries.

HOSTMAKER TO SPRUCE UP HOMES FOR RENTAL

Hostmaker, the European home rental management company, has officially launched an interior design service in Thailand.

Thai hosts can now add value to their properties with designed properties standing out better online, commanding higher nightly rates and attracting more bookings. Properties that have been redesigned by the Hostmaker interior team in London command rates that are 39 per cent higher than the market average and enjoy 80 per cent year-round occupancy.

With a growing number of consumers looking not just for a place to stay but a unique, premium experience, there is a trend for well-designed homes.

Nakul Sharma, CEO and co-founder of Hostmaker said “Interior design has been a central element of Hostmaker offering from day one. Today’s modern traveller is seeking two things: the comfort of a home and the joy of discovering a new neighbourhood or city.

“With Hostmaker, ‘comfort’ is about getting the basics right: great wi-fi, hotel-quality linen and a comfortable bed. While, ‘discovery’ is about exciting the senses: elements of surprise, different textures, experimental colours.

“Our interior design team are experts at the latter, using bold, characterful interiors that will create a memorable experience for guests and offer a memorable stay experience. We are therefore delighted to be bringing this service to homeowners in Bangkok”.

$2 bn trade goal spurs talks with Turkey

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The fifth meeting between Thailand and Turkey occurred between 10 to 12 April at Ankara, the Republic of Turkey.
The fifth meeting between Thailand and Turkey occurred between 10 to 12 April at Ankara, the Republic of Turkey.

$2 bn trade goal spurs talks with Turkey

Economy April 18, 2019 01:00

By THE NATION

2,064 Viewed

TRADE officials expect bilateral trade with Turkey to reach US$2 billion in 2020 as they expressed confidence that a free-trade deal with Ankara can be wrapped up early next year.

The talks have seen an increased focus on issues such as technical challenges and rules of trade.

The fifth meeting between Thailand and Turkey from April 10-12 in Ankara yielded solid progress, Auramon Supthaweethum, the director-general of the Department of Trade Negotiations (DTN), said. Progress was made in drafting the articles for trade in goods, customs procedures, hygiene measures and trade facilitation, she said.

The next meeting this August in Thailand will see a focus on drafting articles regarding

technical challenges to trade and the rules of origin, which were also discussed at last week’s meeting.

The two sides also discussed reducing or removing tariff barriers for a list of goods traded between the two countries, along with clarifying the particular goods that each country wants their trading partner to further open up to.

For example, Thailand asked Turkey to further open up its markets for fruits and vegetables, processed agricultural products, plastics and electrical appliances.

Both sides agreed that the Thailand-Turkey FTA will be an important mechanism to help each country expand its trade benefits amid the uncertain global economic conditions, Auramon said.

For Turkey, a newly negotiated FTA with Thailand could be leveraged as a gateway to enter the wider Asean market.

Opportunities sought

Thailand could use a future agreement with Turkey, which is located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, to expand trade in these regions, she explained.

The director-general also met with Turkey’s private sector and Thai investors in Turkey. She told them that Turkey’s market offered many opportunities to grow given its population of around 80 million, and is a strategic location for distributing Thai products to the surrounding region. The private sector has sounded their support for a Thai-Turkey FTA and hopes that the negotiations will be able to soon reach a conclusion, she claimed.

Additionally, a market survey found that Turkey’s market has a demand for Thai agricultural and industrial goods.

One current obstacle to trade is the continuing presence of high tariffs on Thai exports entering Turkey. Auramon said she is confident the FTA will help Turkey further open its market to Thai products.

In 2018, Turkey was Thailand’s 36th largest trading partner in the world, and the fourth largest in the Middle East.

Last year’s trade value between Thailand and Turkey stood at $1.427 billion (Bt45.34 billion), with Thailand exporting $1.082 billion (Bt34.38 billion) worth of goods to Turkey and importing $344 million (Bt10.93 billion), according to the Commerce Ministry, which oversees the Department of Trade Negotiations.

The Kingdom’s key exports to Turkey are cars, equipment and parts, air conditioners, rubber and plastics.

Third runway approved for main airport

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http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30367859

Suvarnabhumi International Airport
Suvarnabhumi International Airport

Third runway approved for main airport

Economy April 18, 2019 01:00

By THE NATION

6,409 Viewed

A PROPOSED third runway for Suvarnabhumi International Airport has cleared the final hurdle, with the Cabinet yesterday approving the Bt21.8 billion project.

The construction, to be overseen by the Airports of Thailand (AOT), is scheduled to be completed in 2021.

Deputy government spokesman Weerachon Sukhondhapatipak said work is scheduled to begin this year.

A plan for the construction of the taxiway B2 extension, at a cost of Bt622.33 million, was dropped. That decision enabled the overall cost of the project to be reduced from the originally envisaged Bt22.42 billion, Weerachon said.

A contract is expected to be signed after the Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA) gains approval from the Office of National Environment Board.

The third runway will enable 30 more flights per hour for Bangkok’s main airport.

Its two runways can accommodate 64 flights an hour.

The western runway is 3.7 kilometres long and the eastern one is 4km.

The two runways average 63 flights an hour during busy times. If an emergency occurs or a runway is closed for maintenance, total runway capacity will be almost halved to 34 flights an hour.

The 4 km third runway will be in the western part of the airport, the same side as the main warehouse and the current western runway.

Once the third runway comes into service, it will also be used for cargo flights when the western runway is closed for maintenance.

This project will include a navigation system, the construction of drainage system and fire and rescue stations.

Key infrastructure

The project is part of Thailand’s transport infrastructure development plan from 2015.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the AOT should apply appropriate risk management for the project.

The third runway will provide a low rate of return and it will be 20 years before it breaks even.

The AOT will also coordinate with agencies such as Aeronautical Radio of Thailand Ltd to plan construction of a fourth runway to cope with future air traffic, and set a standard to reduce any impact that may arise from delays and service quality of Suvarnabhumi airport.

Cautious lenders increasingly banking on credit bureau information

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Cautious lenders increasingly banking on credit bureau information

Economy April 17, 2019 01:00

By   THE NATION

BANK and non-bank financial institutions are getting cautious about the quality of loans to borrowers as they request increased information, according to the National Credit Bureau (NCB).

Thailand’s household debt has accelerated with the outstanding amount at Bt12.82 trillion, or 78.6 per cent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), at the end of 2018.

In the meantime, loan quality has deteriorated, prompting financial institutions and financial service providers to ask for more credit information about both new and existing customers.

In the first quarter of this year, requests for checking new customers’ credit information from NCB hit 4.36 million times. In 2018, the requests reached 16 million times, up from 14.29 million times in the previous year.

Requests for checking existing customers’ credit information jumped to 53.97 million times last year from 43.85 million times the previous year. In the first quarter of this year, the requests touched 12.59 million times, mirroring lenders’ concerns over loan extensions and their lack of confidence in loan quality.

Surapol Opasatien, NCB chief executive officer, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had previously questioning the quality of information about household debt accumulating from personal loans, auto hire purchases, mortgages and credit-card loans with restructuring loans.

So far, restructuring loans have increased to Bt810-Bt820 billion, compared to Bt800 billion late last year, indicating increased fragility in the quality of loans. Statistically, about 40 per cent of this group became indebted again after loan restructuring.

“Restructuring loans continue to increase. This is what the IMF was asking about a lot and paid very close attention to. Most of the restructuring loans consist of mortgages and personal loans,” Surapol said.

Non-performing loans (NPL) in the financial system remain high at 6.0 per cent of total outstanding loans, at nearly Bt800 billion.

The number of mortgage accounts rose to about 430,000 last year from 360,000 a year ago. People aged 22-39 years old (Generation Y) received the most loans, some of which extend more than 30 years.

Three groups (baby boomers, generations X and Y) registered overdue loans reaching as high as 220,000 accounts or about Bt240 billion. Last year, the overdue amount was Bt220 billion. Most overdue loans were from generations X and Y.

All groups’ combined overdue auto hire purchases amounted to nearly 1 million accounts, about 850,000 of which came from generations X and Y.

About 60 per cent of 2.4 million approved credit-card loan accounts went to Generation Y in the previous year. Last year, about 1. 7 million accounts were approved.

Of the total 20 million credit cards, about 14 million are active and one million face financial troubles or are overdue, most of which come from generations X and Y.

Personal loans overdue by more than 30 days reached 2.8 million accounts. Over 1.5 million accounts or Bt260,000 were owned by Generation Y.

This information on overdue loans is in line with the Bank of Thailand, which could result in it continuing to rise.

Based on the information, people aged over 40 average five loan accounts, compared to a typical 20-year-old’s one account borrowed for a car, motorcycle or a personal loan.

The way to eliminate household debt is to cease taking out personal loans that play a role in the lives of people in every age range.

Non-bank financial institutions loaned Generation Y people a relatively large amount for auto-hire purchases and personal loans. If indebtedness is controlled, non-bank financial institutions’ loan extensions may need to be further controlled.

Fraud challenges regional banks

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Fraud challenges regional banks

Economy April 17, 2019 01:00

By   THE NATION

ALMOST three in four banks in Asia Pacific anticipate that fraud in their country will increase in 2019, according to a recent poll by FICO, a leading predictive analytics and decision management software company.

FICO surveyed 50 executives from financial institutions across the region at the annual FICO Asia Pacific Fraud Forum held in Bali, Indonesia.

Of specific concern are transactions completed when neither the card nor the cardholder is physically present (card-not-present or CNP fraud), as well as cards taken out by criminals under false identities (application fraud). These were identified as the two key concerns, as well as the biggest fraud challenges, faced by banks in 2019.

“The volume and velocity of transactions is growing in Asia,” said Dan McConaghy, president of FICO in Asia Pacific. “Over 50 per cent of global online retail sales in 2018 originated from the region. This growth in e-commerce, along with the efforts of banks to digitise more services, has seen a change in fraud risk. Dealing with an ocean of transactions means that AI and machine learning are essential when it comes to detecting fraud.”

The survey found that efforts to keep up with changing fraud patterns remain mixed.

Most APAC banks surveyed continue to take a precautionary approach to stopping fraud. More than 50 per cent of APAC banks continue to simply block cards on the first fraud alert, a rate that remains unchanged from the 2017 survey. In contrast, 6 per cent will keep the card open while trying to confirm fraud with the customer. Positively, this number has doubled since the same question was asked in the previous poll.

“While protection against fraud is important, some banks are still struggling to balance prevention with customer convenience,” said McConaghy. “Smart communications is one tool lenders can use to deliver a frictionless customer experience. Engaging customers with an automated SMS or calling to check if a transaction is genuine while they are still at the register, engages them in the protection of their account and can have a positive influence on their impression of the bank.”

Interestingly, banks in the region are still measuring their fraud departments on key fraud metrics other than customer satisfaction. Overall fraud losses remain the leading indicator for 80 per cent of APAC banks, followed by revenue at 10 per cent.

Only 6 per cent of APAC banks ranked customer satisfaction as their number one metric and only 4 per cent said customer attrition was their key measurement.

“The results are a little surprising, as fraud rates are still relatively low even though they are starting to climb,” said McConaghy. “In developed markets where their lenders compete over share of wallet, we start to see a greater emphasis on customer experience. Potentially, what we are seeing is that in some organisations the fraud department remains a more siloed operation. However, as fraud levels climb, increased levels of customer churn are likely to shift the priorities for banks.”

Of the banks surveyed, 54 per cent of respondents said there would be a moderate rise in fraud in 2019 while 20 per cent said there would be a significant jump.

Identity theft also remained a key priority for four-in-10 banks. Last year’s survey found that for one in five banks the number of fraudulent applications for credit cards sat between 5 and 10 per cent.

“Exposure is increasing in this area, given the rise in digital customer acquisition and the proliferation of compromised data from cyberattacks in APAC,” said McConaghy. “A recent report stated that APAC accounts for 35.9 per cent of global cybersecurity events and up to 27.2 per cent of compromised records worldwide. However, the actual figures could be much higher since most countries in Southeast Asia don’t require a compulsory report of data breaches, which means fraudsters are better armed with identity-based data than ever before.”

Tomorrow has come for China’s capital markets

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Tomorrow has come for China’s capital markets

Economy April 17, 2019 01:00

By   SPECIAL TO THE NATION

IN 1980, sponsors of China’s Yizheng Chemical Fibres desperately needed capital to realise their ambition to build a large-scale chemical-fibre plant. State-owned financial institutions were unable to help.

Having nowhere else to turn onshore, Yizheng issued a US$50 million (Bt1.59 billion) bond overseas to raise funds, becoming the first Chinese enterprise in the modern era to tap the international bond market.

Nearly 40 years on, Chinese issuers don’t have to venture overseas to attract foreign capital: investors are coming to China.

For decades, overseas investing in China was considered a complex and tightly controlled affair, something that many thought was best left for tomorrow, not today. China’s bond and equity markets may be the third- and second-largest in the world, respectively, but international participation remains low, at just over 2 per cent of domestic bonds and around 7 per cent of freely-traded A shares.

But a series of reforms has changed the picture in recent years – and tomorrow has come. More and easier avenues have opened up for foreign investors. Chinese bonds and equities are being included in major global indices. Slowly but surely, China’s capital markets are moving into the global investment mainstream.

Last year alone, international investors bought more than $81 billion of Chinese bonds, making the country the largest recipient of foreign investment among emerging bond markets globally. HSBC Global Research expects another $150 billion to follow over time – and an additional $600 billion to head into Chinese stocks in the next five to 10 years.

The scale of these inflows speaks volumes about the changes that are taking place in China’s capital markets – and about why investors from Birmingham to Boston to Berlin need to be ready.

Inclusion in global indices means asset managers around the world who use these benchmarks to invest savings and public money on behalf of pension plans, sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies will need to start buying the Chinese bonds and equities if they want to track the performance of those indices.

The next milestone comes on April 1, when renminbi-denominated bonds issued by China’s government and policy banks will start to be included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index. Tracked by around $2.5 trillion of assets under management, “Global Agg” is one of the world’s most important bond indices.

This marks the beginning of game-changing shifts in the overall investment patterns globally.

For asset managers and ordinary savers around the world, the changes mean getting exposure to a market that only began opening up to the outside world a decade or so ago, and that, despite its massive size ($12 trillion) and yields that compare favourably to those in low-interest rate economies like the US, Japan and Europe, is still underrepresented in global investment portfolios.

It also gives investors a stake in an economy whose shift towards higher-tech and more consumption- and services-oriented growth is swelling the ranks of the middle classes and creating promising corporate stories across an array of sectors. True, economic growth has slowed from the double-digit pace of a few years ago, but 6.6 per cent expansion last year added roughly the equivalent of Spain’s or Australia’s economy to China’s GDP in 2018.

China’s policymakers recognise that opening up the capital markets to more foreign participation can be instrumental in continuing the growth story, helping to diversify the sources of capital available to domestic enterprises and supporting a gradual but important transition of long-term financing from banks to capital markets.

In other words, reforms aimed at simplifying international access to its markets are very much in China’s own interests – and will continue, global trade tensions notwithstanding.

Progress has already been made. In the bond markets alone, the China Interbank Bond Market Direct programme was launched in 2016, and a Bond Connect link with Hong Kong launched in 2017, allowing global investors to access the mainland market.

In line with China’s approach to reform and opening over the last 40 years, the liberalisation of its capital markets will be a gradual process. Investors have questions about liquidity, their ability to value their portfolios, the regulatory approach, credit ratings and default risks. They will naturally need time to become familiar with a new market. But the commitment China has already demonstrated to opening up its capital markets should give them confidence for the future.

So it would be a mistake to overlook the potential of a market – and an economy – that is going through a historic transformation. Investors who do the work now stand to reap benefits for years to come – and so will China.

Contributed by DAVID LIAO, president and CEO, HSBC China.