Political scientist Stithorn Thananithichot warned that this confusion can lead to lawsuits, which will further complicate post-poll politics.

In a Chulalongkorn University live-stream, Stithorn explained that currently at least two formulae can be used to calculate the number of MPs each party was entitled to. One formula allows several small parties to each gain a seat in the Lower House, while the other allocates seats to bigger parties based on the number of votes won.

The uncertainty, stemming from different interpretations of the law, will affect parties that have enough quota to get party-list MPs, the expert explained. He said Pheu Thai will not be affected because it has already won more constituency MPs than the calculation allows.

But no matter which formula the Election Commission (EC) decides to use, there will be winners and losers. Stithorn said it is possible that some parties or candidates may petition the Constitutional Court for a ruling, a delay process that could make politics more difficult.

The final results on the number of MPs for by each party will become crucial for the formation of a coalition. The pro- and anti-junta camps are now in a neck-and-neck race with both of them having close to, or a little over 250 MPs, needed to form a legitimate government.

If the EC endorses the calculation that will allow over 10 MPs from different small parties into Parliament, it is speculated that they are more likely to back the pro-junta camp and put their rival at a disadvantage. While the agency has kept mum and insisted on finalising the matter in May in line with the deadline set by the relevant organic law, former EC member Somchai Srisuthiyakorn warned this could be vital for the commissioners.

In such a close win-lose situation, political parties will definitely approach the court, Somchai said. If it is proved that the commissioners had picked one formula over the other to favour a particular party, the punishment could be imprisonment, the former commissioner added.

Following this confusion, politicians and the public yesterday demanded that the agency disclose the calculation method that will be used to allocate MP seats. This was added to the previously unresponded demand for the agency to disclose voting data from each polling station and explain the discrepancies in figures.

Pheu Thai, though not directly affected by the calculation, issued a statement pressing the EC to publish the formula it would use, so as to prevent any political exploitation.

With over 10 small parties now having the possibility of getting one seat in exchange for a very small number of votes, Pheu Thai noted that the EC should consider the stipulation that did not allow parties to get seats they were not entitled to. Having been bombarded with harsh criticism since election day, the EC got some respite yesterday when a group of some 10 supporters showed up at their office and gave them flowers to show their support.

The group said critics should give EC time to work through the election and accept the rules or the country will not be able to move forward.

Separately, junta leader General Prayut Chan-o-cha also issued a similar message, saying the public should listen to the agency’s explanation and asked everyone not to cause chaos.

The union was represented by its president, Parit “Penguin” Chiwarak, and about 10 members.

Parit told reporters that the Democrats joining a Pheu Thai-led government would be the only way to end the continuation in power of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, via the Palang Pracharat Party, following the general election.

Palang Pracharat has nominated Prayut as its sole prime-minister candidate for the next government.

Unofficial results of the March 24 general election saw Pheu Thai winning more Lower House seats than Prayut’s party.

Pheu Thai, known for being allied to self-exiled ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra, earlier announced that it and other parties were ready to form a coalition government, having signed a pact mainly to try to stop Prayut hanging on to power.

Palang Pracharat, which according to unofficial results won the popular vote, has also vowed to form its own coalition.

The Democrats, which suffered huge losses in their strongholds in the South and Bangkok, have since the election remained silent on whether the party would join either of the potential coalition governments or be in the Opposition bloc.

The party’s leader, former PM Abhisit Vejjajiva, resigned from his position to show responsibility for the electoral losses and appointed veteran politician Jurin Laksanavisit as acting leader.

Parit said the student union’s petition, which was addressed to Jurin, claimed that if the Democrats opted to be an Opposition party as recommended by its younger politicians, known as Young Dem, such a move would also indirectly help Prayut and Palang Pracharat hold on to power.

He called for the Democrat Party to reach a decision and announce its intentions as soon as possible.

“Although I’m not a member of the Democrat Party and was not one of 3.9 million who voted for the party in the election, I take this opportunity as a member of the public to call for a political party to have a clear position,” he explained.

Former commissioner Sodsri Satayathum called on the agency to clear up all issues immediately before citizens launch an impeachment process, while also warning that the commissioners’ removal from office could postpone endorsement of the final vote results.

University students and other citizens expressed their impatience with the EC’s inability to declare the credible full tally a full week after the election. Discrepancies in numbers provided by the EC have raised suspicions and it has been unable to provide credible explanations to allay public frustration.

The EC has also failed to combat false news and misunderstanding spread over the internet. Every statement it issues on its Facebook page has met only more cynicism.

More than 820,000 people have signed a petition at change.org to impeach the seven commissioners. University students across the country defied school and state officials in setting up tables to gather signatures on petitions with a similar message.

Demonstrators in Bangkok gathered yesterday on the skywalk above the Victory Monument and around the Ratchaprasong intersection to protest the alleged lack of transparency in the election and the performance of the EC.

However, the public disaffection might have no real legal impact, according to rights and legislation watchdog iLaw.

The current Constitution rejects public petitions against independent agencies, iLaw said, adding that the complaints should instead be taken to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), which could determine whether there was cause to submit the case to court.

While the public is seething and wants the EC held accountable for its perceived ineffectiveness and lack of transparency, former commissioner Sodsri doubted that impeachment would be a sound option at this stage.

“It is possible for the people to bring the case to the NACC,” Sodsri said. “However, if the NACC takes it up and sends it to the court, the commissioners might have to be suspended from duty.” The investigation could take considerable time before the NACC and the court reach their conclusions, she added. The matter might not invalidate the election altogether, the expert said, but the suspension could interrupt endorsement of the final results and delay other post-election processes.

With growing public pressure on the EC, Sodsri said she was also concerned it might become another political issue. Some parties could demand a fresh election. Others could call for street protests with the aim of justifying another coup.

It would be best if the EC “came clean” about everything, Sodsri said. In constituencies where results are in question, the agency should reopen the ballot boxes and clear all doubts, she suggested.

Sodsri warned that impeachment of the commissioners would stall post-election activities and the junta would continue to hold the reins of power.

The Democrat Party has arrived at another crossroads, forced to decide whether to support the military’s continued role in politics or to erase the long-held public perception that it is willing to compromise with the generals.

The country’s oldest political party, tipped to win 55 House seats following last month’s election, is seen as a swing party that can tilt the scales for the Pheu Thai or Phalang Pracharat bloc to form a coalition government.

Abhisit Vejjajiva had appealed for support prior to the election when, still leading the Democrats, he declared the party would not support General Prayut Chan-o-cha’s return to power as prime minister, nor would it ally with any corrupt politicians.

The 72-year-old Democrat Party suffered a huge loss in the polls. It failed to secure a single seat in its Bangkok stronghold, losing votes to Phalang Pracharat and Future Forward.

In the South, another normally dependable Democrat bastion, Phalang Pracharat and Bhumjaithai took several constituencies.

Observers believe Abhisit’s resignation as leader after the dismal outcome could pave the way for the Democrats to join a Phalang Pracharat-led coalition.

However, key Democrat figures say they will wait until the Election Commission announces the official poll results, which is scheduled on May 9, before it makes a decision on which camp to join.

It is unlikely the Democrats will support the Thaksin-backed camp massed around Pheu Thai.

Its members are split at the moment between joining a Phalang Pracharat coalition or serving as an independent opposition party.

It appears that veteran Democrat politicians affiliated with Suthep Thaugsuban, the party’s former secretary-general who openly supports Prayut, wish the party to join the Phalang Pracharat camp.

But the “New Dem” group led by Parit Wacharasindhu has suggested it play a “constructive” opposition role in line with its ideology rather than join any coalition government.

Parit, a nephew of Abhisit, posted the suggestion on Facebook and Twitter on Friday with the hashtag #savedem.

“As a party member and a representative of the 3.9 million popular votes we won, I think we need to be honest to our ideology,” Parit said.

“I beg you [whoever is chosen to lead the party next] not to join any coalition government bloc and choose to play the role of independent opposition party gracefully and constructively for the party’s survival. At the same time, we will play a role in scrutinising the government,” he said.

The party should leave the decision to its 140,000 members around the country by conducting a primary vote, Parit said.

Parit’s idea appears to have some support. The post was shared more than 5,000 times and re-tweeted 6,000 times within just a few hours.

Most readers’ comments backed the party and urged it to respect voters and stand behind its policy of withholding support for the pro-junta camp or corrupt politicians.

Supinya Klangnarong, a media activist and former member of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission, on Friday re-tweeted Parit’s message and added her own comment.

“I give my support to the stance of the New Dem. No matter who will become the next government, the party should be a high-quality, independent opposition party.

“It’s a very meaningful mission [for the Democrats] to speak for or be the voice of people in Parliament,” Supinya wrote.

Analysts tend to concur that the party’s younger generation could not resist their seniors after Abhisit led the party to such a heavy loss.

But the Democrats could turn crisis into opportunity with the right post-election moves, they believe.

“If they want to recover and restore the faith soon, they should declare they will play the role of an opposition party, a role they play very efficiently,” said Yuthaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University.

As a medium-sized party with 55 seats in hand, the Democrats would gain little and have limited bargaining power if they join a Phalang Pracharat coalition, he added.

The next government is unlikely to last long and House dissolution is possible, the academic said.

The difference in the number of MP seats available to each camp to form a coalition is narrow, he said, so government stability could be elusive.

“This is a crucial time for the Democrats to show voters whether they’re sticking to their ideology or just going back to being the old Demo- crats,” Yuthaporn said. That would include a readiness to make deals with the military.

So what next? Here are the possible scenarios for how the election could play out.

– Will the junta chief be prime minister? –

It’s a safe bet.

The junta-backed Phalang Pracharat party has stunned its rivals by clinching the popular vote.

That could help coup leader Prayut Chan-O-Cha justify holding onto power.

There are also 250 military-appointed senators in the upper house who can vote for the prime minister.

That means Phalang Pracharat only needs 126 seats of support in the lower house, while its political foes need to collect a gargantuan 376.

They currently have 97 seats and are expected to pick up more through coalitions and additional “party list” seats yet to be released.

The remaining 150 party list seats will be calculated using the popular vote of each party.

Phalang Pracharat’s claim on the popular vote majority — 8.4 million according to the Election Commission — will work greatly in its favour.

But delays and bungled ballots have tainted the integrity of the poll in the eyes of voters.

“People question the popular vote that they got,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.

“People still believe that this election is rigged.”

– Can the ‘democracy’ camp triumph? –

It’s an uphill battle, but they are already fighting it.

Seven parties have teamed up to form a “democratic front” coalition, claiming a majority in the lower house with 255 seats and the right to form a government.

They are led by Pheu Thai, the party linked to self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra whose affiliated parties have won every election since 2001.

Pheu Thai’s most prominent ally is the anti-military Future Forward, whose telegenic billionaire leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit has attracted millennial voters and is now the third largest party by popular vote in Thai politics.

But the claim to a lower house majority could be premature.

Final ratified results are not expected until May 9 and a pivotal medium-sized party — Bhumjaithai — are staying mum on their allegiances so far.

The Bhumjaithai party’s super-rich leader Anutin Charnvirakul has described himself as the “matchmaker”, and could be offered the prime minister’s post in a grand bargain.

He said in a recent Facebook post his party has “not yet decided on its political direction”.

– What about a deadlock in parliament? –

Analysts say the lower house numbers of the so-called “democracy” camp matched against the upper house junta-appointed senators could spell deadlock for Thailand’s new parliament.

In this setup, Prayut is prime minister but the lower house is controlled by parties opposing him.

Pheu Thai’s opposition bloc could control the speaker’s chair and pass no confidence motions, resulting in a standoff.

“The irony is that this would be a repeat of exactly the kind of paralysis that the junta came to power to prevent,” said Aaron Connelly, Singapore-based research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

This is why the Bhumjaithai party will think carefully about accepting any deal, to avoid presiding over a country in crisis.

“When these politicians think, they do not think of just one shot — they are going to think in terms of a movie, or a series,” said Napisa Waitoolkiat, political scientist at Naresuan University.

The statement in the Royal Gazette from HM King Maha Vajiralongkorn comes almost a week after the country held its first election since a military coup in 2014 installed a royalist junta.

Pheu Thai, a political party linked to Thaksin, is now jostling with the junta-backed Phalang Pracharat for the right to form a government.

The billionaire told AFP in an interview last week that the election was “rigged”.

The royal statement said the king “recalls the royal decorations” from the former premier “because Thaksin was convicted by the Supreme Court”.

“Moreover, he has fled the kingdom which is extremely inappropriate behaviour.”

The ex-premier was stripped of the “illustrious order of Chula Chom Klao”, typically bestowed for service to the country.

Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 coup and fled the country in 2008. He was convicted in Thailand on corruption charges.

His sister Yingluck became prime minister in 2011 before being removed in the coup three years later.

King Vajiralongkorn had issued an announcement on election eve calling for Thais to support “good” people to prevent “chaos” — a declaration replayed right before polls opened on March 24.

The monarch also sent jitters across the country in February after a party linked to the Shinawatras nominated Princess Ubolratana as a candidate for prime minister — which he swiftly called “inappropriate” in a royal rebuke.

The party was dissolved and its executives barred from political life for ten years.

Thailand is a constitutional monarchy, but the palace holds unassailable powers and is shielded from criticism by a harsh royal defamation law.

The Future Forward Party, which made an impressive debut, finishing as the third-most popular choice with more than 6.2 million votes and more than 80 House seats, is composed entirely of new faces.  Photo/EPA

While last weekend’s election seems unlikely to lift the Kingdom out of its deep political divide, it has at least exposed new catalysts for change, with voters choosing many young faces to try and brighten the future.

The electoral system was apparently designed to limit the size of political parties – ensuring none was big enough to dominate the House of Representatives.

According to the latest figures from the Election Commission, no party won a landslide victory. The party that won the greatest number of seats – be it Pheu Thai or Phalang Pracharat – will eventually have slightly more than a quarter of the 500 seats in the Lower House, which will stop them from setting up a single-party government.

The Thaksin Shinawatra camp, which has dominated previous elections, failed to retain that advantage after the Thai Raksa Chart was disbanded a mere two weeks before election day. The party had been set up to focus on the mixed-member appointment system while its sister party Pheu Thai concentrated on constituency seats.

Now, with Thai Raksa Chart gone, Pheu Thai has no party-list seats. Meanwhile, though the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat won few constituency seats, it will still benefit from the altered electoral system, which many analysts say was designed to allow the junta to perpetuate power.

Though this election was perhaps one of the longest-awaited in recent memory, the 75 per cent turnout was not abnormal. The same ratio of voters had came out in July 2011.

Of the 51 million eligible voters this time, the majority (38.1 per cent) was between 26 and 45 years old, while 7.3 million (14.3 per cent) were first-time voters aged between 18 and 25.

Many first-time voters told The Nation Weekend they exercised their right to vote in the hope of bringing about change, even though they suspected it was a virtual lost cause in this election.

“This election won’t trigger any changes because it was designed by people who want the status quo to continue,” said a first-time voter, asking to be identified only as Phon.

“But I hope it spurs more conversation about the country’s future, which might lead to whoever is ruling becoming more responsible or even giving us another chance to vote – on a more level playing field.”

Generally, the successful candidates are not really young, with an average age of 52. The party with the oldest candidates – average 55 – is Pheu Thai, followed by Phalang Pracharat (53) and the Democrats (52). The rookie Future Forward Party stands to have a relatively younger representation in the House, averaging 45 years old. The Commoners Party, with candidates averaging 43 years old, won no seats in the election.

Future Forward co-founder Taopiphob Limjittrakorn said young voters chose him because they were “bored” with the established elite. The young maker of craft beer entered politics with the hope of breaking up business monopolies and helping reshape the political landscape.

Smashing through

He managed to smash his way through in Bangkok’s Klong San constituency, defeating heavyweight Democrat candidate and former MP Suran Chanpitak.

The Democrats, the oldest Thai party, suffered a major setback last weekend, losing its strongholds in the capital and most of the South. Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva stepped down to accept responsibility for the defeat.

Many observers said the Democrats lost votes to Phalang Pracharat in Bangkok and the South because Abhisit refused to help Prayut Chan-o-cha retain power. The pro-junta party won a lot of seats in the upper Central region and lower North.

However, Phalang Pracharat’s victory and the Democrats’ defeat made little difference in the political landscape because they appear to be sticking together.

Pheu Thai, meanwhile, managed to hang on to its strongholds in the far North and Northeast, but was unable to take the largest northeastern province, Nakhon Ratchasima, because Phalang Pracharat had poached some of its MPs from that area.

Yada yavarakanon is among dozens of Phalang Pracharat’s fresh face MPs.

Unlike Future Forward, which won a surprise victory among young voters, Phalang Pracharat emerged as the most successful newcomer in the election – especially since it managed to take advantage of the privileges embedded in the revised electoral law.

Its PM candidate is the incumbent and the party cleverly used the name of the junta’s pet project, Pracharat, in its branding.

In the big picture, this election is unlikely to end the chronic polarisation, with both pro- and anti-junta camps, led by Phalang Pracharat and Pheu Thai respectively, compete to claim legitimacy to form a government.