“We’re going towards full democracy. There will be an election no matter what,” the junta leader said. “[The election date] will be changed but still it will be by May 9.” He was referring to the deadline set by the Constitution prescribing that the poll must be held within 150 days after the electoral organic laws were in effect.

This is the first time Prayut has admitted that no matter what, the election will have to be rescheduled from the previously planned date of February 24. With the Royal Coronation Ceremony scheduled in recent weeks for May 4-6, the government has said a rescheduling may be needed to avoid a clash with the post-ceremony |period in which King Maha Vajiralongkorn has related duties.

Prayut yesterday made it clear: “I want this important occasion to be peaceful … the election should not overlap the important occasion. That’s the only reason.”

In the two weeks since the possibility of an election delay was put on the table, pro-election protesters and members of the public have expressed dissatisfaction over the repeated postponements and have demanded that the government maintain February 24 as the poll day.

Protests have been seen in many areas inside and outside Bangkok. Unless the government confirms the election date by Friday a major demonstration will be staged the following day by a pro-election group led by Sirawith Seritiwat and Nuttaa Mahuttana at the Democracy Monument in Bangkok.

More protests

Outside Bangkok, similar rallies are taking place at universities in different provinces. Students and members of the public yesterday joined a movement at Khon Kaen University calling for a speedy election. Protests are planned today and tomorrow for Burapha University in Chon Buri province, Silpakorn University in Nakhon Pathom province, Chiang Mai University in Chiang Mai province and in front of Government House in Bangkok.

The Royal Decree that would order an election be held has yet to be published in the Royal Gazette.

Meanwhile, there has been a strong sign of the election being put off until March 24. Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam has said it could be a perfect date, given that the post-election activities would not be likely to clash with the royal enthronement in May.

Election Commission (EC) secretary-general Jarungvith Phumma also signalled yesterday that March 24 was a feasible date. The agency could finalise the election results within 45 days instead of the 60 days allowed by the Constitution, he said.

In that time frame, the election results could be announced by May 9. A debate has arisen over whether the 150-day time frame for holding the election should include this announcement or be limited to the voting.

The country must have an election, he said in a speech addressing National Teacher’s Day.

“There is nothing that could change that requirement, but the date may be pushed back or brought forward,” he said.

“This is required by the Constitution,” said the premier. “Otherwise, we have to amend the charter. But that is impossible.”

This is the first time that Prayut has directly admitted that the election poll might be changed from the previously expected February 24 date.

The country was preparing for the royal enthronement ceremony, he said, and asked that everyone try to keep the country peaceful.

The post-election activities such as results announcement, scrutiny of MP qualifications, and setting up of a new government should not overlap with the coronation, Prayut said.

If a Royal Decree on the election is not published in the Royal Gazette by Friday, the group will hold its fourth pro-election protest at Democracy Monument on Rajdamnoen Avenue this Saturday.

Protests were seen in different provinces in the past week after the government was unable to clarify the election delay, saying it would overlap the royal coronation ceremony in May.

These demonstrations were in addition to the protests around the Ratchaprasong intersection on Sunday that saw at least 500 protesters joining the movement.

Although the ban on political activity was lifted late last year, police are keeping a close watch on the protesters. Protest leaders were finally charged with using an amplifier in a public place without permission.

Singer and songwriter Su Boonlieng yesterday debuted a pop song “Knock Knock Knock”, adapted from a popular song “Pratu Chai” [The Door to the Heart] from the 1980s.

“Knock Knock Knock” calls for the return of democracy, that has been on hold since the 2014 coup.

“I wrote this song because I want younger people to see politics as something colourful. So, I presented this song through younger singers and dancers,” Su wrote on Facebook. “I want them to see that elections should be a routine, that we should do routinely.”

Following mounting pressure, Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha said yesterday: “I’ve always said that the election will follow some conditions.”

The pro-poll group has set Friday as the deadline for the government to clarify its stance on the election but Prayut asked if the group had the authority to impose a deadline for the government.

“I don’t understand this. Everything still follows the same time frame,” Prayut said after the mobile Cabinet meeting in Lampang province. “The election must take place in 150 days and that is May 9.”

Prayut was referring to the time frame set by the Constitution, which states that the poll must be conducted within 150 days of the election organic laws coming into effect.

He said he did not want to talk about it because it was the responsibility of the Election Commission (EC). In determining the election date, the EC had to take into account not only the opinions of involved parties but also the preparations for the coronation ceremony, he added.

The monarchy is the main pillar of the nation, the PM stressed, adding that everyone had to lend a helping hand.

Meanwhile, Army chief General Apirat Kongsompong yesterday said he had no concerns over threats of stepped-up demonstrations, saying the protesters had the right and freedom to do so. His only worry was about trade and tourism being affected by the protests.

However, in response to the deadline set by the pro-poll group, Apirat said they should also draw a line for themselves and try not to cross it.

“Do not cross the line,” he said. “Political groups can do their job. The security forces will also do their job. This is how the system works.”

“The set date of the general election, and the openness and equality in competitiveness for all political parties, will be the path to lead the country into democracy and [for the poll to be] acceptable on the domestic and international stages,” the party said in a statement.

“However, concerns have it that there would be uses of state power and [the state] mechanism to create political advantages. If these were allowed to happen until the election, the election will certainly not be called legitimate and fair.

“The clear evidence is that four ministers in the government, who set up a political party and are the executive members of that party, can continue their work as ministers [in the run-up to the national poll],” the statement read.

“It would be difficult to differentiate the works as to whether they would be for the benefits of the country or their own sakes,” it added.

Pheu Thai has raised several examples of what it believes are the use of the state mechanism for the political gain of those in power.

The party has asked that the junta’s chief, General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is also the prime minister, order and make sure that government officials act neutrally.

The Election Commission should step in to examine the government authorities’ performance and to inspect the examples that the party has raised, it argued.

The first podcast in the series was launched yesterday and it could also be viewed on Thaksin’s official website thaksinofficial.com.

Thaksin wrote on his Facebook that through the podcast “Good Monday”, he would share with Thai people every Monday morning how to handle changes in the world.

The content will be distilled from his experience of living abroad for 12 years, travelling to many countries both advanced and underdeveloped, as well as meeting numerous political and business leaders, according to the Facebook post.

“Every Monday, when we wake up, we want to know if our way of making a living is still relevant and if we need to change because the world is changing so fast now,” Thaksin wrote. “If the sharing of my experiences can be an inspiration to change how you make a living or raise your kids, I will be very happy.”

In the first episode yesterday, the former PM talked about economic trends this year and the next year that would affect smaller businesses as well as Thai peoples’ quality of life.

The Facebook post garnered nearly 50,000 likes as of press time with over 2,000 comments welcoming the podcast.

His official website, displayed in a minimalist style, features four main pages – Personal, Business, National Policy, and Good Monday. The website presents photo galleries as well as articles showing his personal life and views on different issues.

Following the launch of the podcast, political scientist Sirote Klampaiboon pointed out that Thaksin remained one of the few living Thai ex-PMs who remained popular among a section of Thai people.

“Though some might see him as politically calculating, Thaksin has earned acceptance from the people since he led the now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party in 2001 as a visionary leader,” Sirote wrote on Facebook. “To demonstrate this again in 2019, Thaksin is showing the people the difference between a visionary leader and a short-tempered, narcissistic leader.”

Another political scientist from Rangsit University, Wanwichit Boonprong, also said that Thaksin was showing his superiority via the podcast, and it would lead to people make comparisons between him and the ruling junta and the pro-junta Palang Pracharat Party.

This move will force the pro-junta camp to come out and criticise the former PM, he said. But at the same time, all eyes would also be on Thaksin and his move via his website and the podcast, he added.

Aside from direct competition with the ruling junta, Wanwichit also viewed the launching of the podcast now, with the elections fast approaching, as proof that Thaksin was ready to fight.

If some parties or political groups get involved, Wanwichit said they might risk getting dissolved because the charter prohibits outside influence.

However, another way to look at it is that Thaksin may want the dissolution to happen to add fuel to the fire. He may expect his supporters to take to the streets and fight the ruling junta, Wanwichit observed.

The promised national vote never happened, and promises to hold elections five other times over the next three years also were broken.

Repeated postponements by the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) have left critics of the junta, as well as political parties, fast losing patience after years of waiting.

Critics and activists close to certain political groups have held protests against any postponement of the poll from February 24 – the latest promised date of election before yet another delay. A general election on February 24 became unlikely after the government pointed to the need for a delay in order to avoid it overlapping with the coronation ceremony of His Majesty the King scheduled for early May.

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said last week that the next election should be held on March 24 or March 31 so that results of the national vote could be announced in late May, after the coronation.

However, the Election Commission (EC) suggested that the next election should be held on March 10. The agency said it wanted the election results to be announced within 150 days after the organic law on MP elections went into effect on December 11.

Election commissioners said they did not want to take a risk, as the Constitution requires a general election “shall be held and completed” within 150 days from the date the relevant organic acts came into force.

In their view, the legal timeframe also covered the announcement of election results, although Wissanu, who is in charge of the government’s legal affairs, disputed such an interpretation. He said that holding an election and announcing the results had their separate legal deadlines.

A separate constitutional clause states that the EC “shall announce the result of the election expeditiously; the announcement shall be not later than 60 days from the date of election”.

There has been concern that if the EC announces the election result later than May 9 – after 150 days of the MP election law came into force – the Constitutional Court could be petitioned to void the election.

Although the EC mainly has the final say on setting the election date, the government has the power to get a decree calling a national vote promulgated in the Royal Gazette. And so far, no such decree has been issued.

The tug-of-war between the government and the EC about the election date, as well as the junta’s insistence on a postponement by another month from February 24, has led to suspicions of a conspiracy aimed at getting the next national vote annulled. The junta chief mentioned tentative election schedules during his overseas visits, possibly due to pressure from the international community. But the promised schedules never materialised. In February 2015, at a press conference in Tokyo following a meeting with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, Prayut said Thailand would hold an election by late that year or early the following year.

The scheduled election was postponed from February 2016 to September that year after the draft constitution required that a national referendum be held. There was another postponement after the National Reform Assembly voted down the draft charter written by a committee headed by Borwornsak Uwanno.

At that time, Borwornsak, a law professor, said his draft was voted down because “they want to stay long”, which led to criticisms that the NCPO had plotted to cling on to power for as long as possible.

In September 2015, while attending the UN General Assembly in New York, Prayut told then UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon that he expected the election to be held in mid-2017.

However, the schedule was postponed from middle to late 2017 after a new constitution drafting committee headed by Meechai Ruchuphan added more time for writing organic laws and preparing for elections.

A delay in promulgating the new Constitution led to another postponement, until November 2018.

Then, the National Legislative Assembly set the organic law on MP elections to go into effect 90 days after its promulgation, a rare occurrence in Thai politics, forcing the national vote to be delayed until February 2019.

Malaysia is acting as facilitator in the peace dialogue between the Thai government and the separatist factions in the predominantly Malay Muslim South.

Briefing journalists at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand in Bangkok, Udomchai thanked Malaysian Premier Mahathir Mohamad for the input and said his committee was considering the idea.

But he said Thai authorities would first have to decide on the level of autonomy the region could be granted, as well as the terminology, “to ensure it wouldn’t pose any problem to the area”, since the provinces are also home to many Buddhists.

Udomchai said Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha had characterised the proposal as more a matter of “distribution of power”, but regardless, Thailand was grateful for Mahathir’s suggestion.

Udomchai, appointed head of the dialogue committee in October, said it intended to include all stakeholders in the discussion, both those actively seeking change and those content with the province’s current administrative status, to try and find common ground.

He said the committee was currently focused on building trust to make the dialogue appealing to all groups. It was important to respect international law and people’s rights, he stressed.

Udomchai seeks to keep the dialogue “casual” so that people involved in the insurrection are comfortable enough to express their views.

He said the committee would honour any request that information discussed be kept confidential.

“If there is anything we can do, we’ll do it right away,” Udomchai said. “There’s no need to countersign or anything, but if it really requires that, we’ll pass it on to the PM.

“For now, we’re giving them time. They can come and talk whenever they’re ready. We’re not rushing anything, but the quicker the better, because we have human lives at stake here.”

Mana Treelayapewat, dean of the School of Communication Arts at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said political parties have been using social media much more to try and win votes due to the online platforms’ high penetration among the country’s 50-million-plus voters.

For the upcoming election, the number of first-time voters age 18 and up is estimated to be around seven million, and social media are their preferred means of communication.

Most social networks are being used to present the parties’ policies and activities and the details of MP candidates, Mana said.

Voters will have to be on guard against the dissemination of content that’s subtly distorted to win votes, he said. Traditional media outlets can also be misled by such inaccurate content, so they too must carefully vet it before publishing or broadcasting.

One tactic employed by social-media experts engaged by political parties is to spread alternative views and partial truths in ways that benefit the parties. This is done by misleading the audience to discredit rival parties or by falsely favouring their own parties and candidates.

Parties also use Twitter for quick and real-time communications with their base, while turning to Facebook for group communications and engagement. The Line platform can be used for both one-on-one and group communication. For controversial and viral video content, YouTube is used together with other platforms to spur social media interest.

“The role of micro-influencers is growing rapidly because they play a similar role to that previously done by party canvassers, especially with regard to discussing party policies,” said Chanut Kerdpradub, a social-media communication specialist.

Micro-influencers on the Web and mobile devices are also useful for reaching niche and special-interest groups, whose votes are crucial to election outcomes but are often hard to reach and activate before the vote.

Content on social media can influence more than just first-time and young voters, Chanut said. Senior citizens tend to prefer Line, for example. Overall, political parties will aim to use social networks to penetrate specific voter groups with customised contents based on data analysis and artificial intelligence tools.

Chanut said traditional media will see their role and influence decline in the coming election due to the rapid digitalisation of the Thai economy and society. Social media are also seen as more efficient and cost-effective in getting the message out, while also allowing parties to devise more innovative campaigns and communication strategies.

In fact, politicians in this vote will have the best of both worlds, discussing big themes with the masses while also delivering customised content to specific voter groups, he said. The parties also have to prepare to an unprecedented degree for crisis management to respond to fake or misleading news.

Most first-time voters are “native” users of social media with a high degree of competence with the technology, Chanut said, while traditional media such as TV outlets are relatively unknown to them, so parties with creative and effective social-media campaigns will have a significant advantage.

For the upcoming election, key factors that could decide the election involve age and rural versus urban voters, where older provincial voters are more supportive of populist policies while younger urban voters who use social media are less likely to support populist policies.

Sakulsri Srisaracam, head of the Convergent Journalism Department at the Panyapiwat Institute of Management, said subtle social-media content, especially fake and misleading news, will play a crucial role in the election outcome because it’s often hard for voters to discern the truth of reports. Truths and half-truths will abound as the election nears, resulting in more alienation among voters, he said. There thus needs to be an “election literacy” component on social media.

Nuttaputch Wongreanthong, a digital marketer, said social media are not like broadcasting since it is much easier to slip through unverified content, such as via the use of personalised and dynamic ads on Facebook and Google.

In this format, each group of voters gets a different message aimed at their specific behaviour, preferences, biases or frames of reference.

Targeting highly personalised content for each voter does not bode well for a democracy, he said, because voters are supposed to make judgements based on the same set of data in a free and fair election.

As a result, the Election Commission’s mission is to ensure that social-media content is properly vetted. Poomjit Sirawongprasert, Thai-directory editor for Curlie.org, believes that fake and misleading news will be prominent in this election campaign as parties aim to gain advantages over rivals, particularly for the swing votes among young and first-time voters.