Jatuporn Promphan and Yongyuth Tiyapairat said parties should agree that a coalition with majority support in the 500-MP House of Representatives be allowed to form the next government and must be regarded as having secured the mandate from voters.

The two red-shirt leaders are self-appointed “cheerleaders” of a new political party called Puea Chat or “For the Nation”, and insist they are just supporters, not members of the party, which is dominated by red-shirt figures.

Both politicians were found guilty in court in separate cases, and are technically prohibited by law from joining any political party or contesting an election.

Jatuporn accepts the restrictions, but Yongyuth, a former House speaker and Parliament president, insists he still has political rights, though he has chosen to stay out of politics for the sake of peace and democracy.

Previously the top leader of the red-shirt umbrella group, United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), Jatuporn said the junta-appointed Senate had to respect voter mandate and avoid helping a minority coalition to block the formation of a post-election government.

“Without a pre-election agreement, it is possible that a coalition with only 126 MPs could join forces with the 250 senators to gain a majority [in both Houses],” Jatuporn said.

He noted that the current Constitution, which has been in effect since April last year, empowers the Senate to vote with the Lower House in selecting the prime minister, if the 500 MPs are unable to reach an accord.

In the second round of voting, involving both Houses, the winning prime ministerial candidate needs to gain support from more than 375 parliamentarians.

Some observers have warned that a party that wins the largest number of House seats, but not a majority in the Lower House, may fail to form a new coalition government after the next election. They said a pro-junta political party would first need to prevent its rival party from getting support from smaller parties to gain a majority in the Lower House. Then, when the Senate gets involved in the selection of the PM, the pro-junta party will need just 126 MPs to win majority in both Houses, as its candidate – or an outsider it supports – will likely be backed by all 250 senators. The 250 senators will be appointed by the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

Also, since the Constitution does not set a deadline for the formation of a new government, the current junta-led administration headed by General Prayut Chan-o-cha can continue as a caretaker for as long as it takes for the winning parties to agree on the who should be the next premier.

“Without talks between the stakeholders, there could be problems. The parties must reach a social contract based on democratic principles. The people’s mandate must be respected. Also, people in power must take part, otherwise we could end up going back to some point worse than the present,” Jatuporn said.

He pointed out that historically, talks between conflicting parties in Thailand often take place after clashes that lead to many deaths. He said he does not want to see such tragedies take place again.

Instead, Jatuporn suggested, people in power or political parties should “play host” and start talks aimed at preventing renewed political conflict. “If they don’t do it, the public have to pressure them,” he added.

Political players should talk together, at least to help ease people’s worries that the next election could lead to more problems.

“If you don’t begin today, the country will be destined for crisis, whatever the [election] result is,” Jatuporn warned.

Yongyuth, meanwhile, foresees an unstable government following the election, no matter which side wins the national vote. He predicted that anti-military parties will not be able to rule the country despite their House majority, while the pro-military side would become a minority government with the Senate’s help, but no public support.

“If we don’t try to fix this now, history will repeat itself,” he warned.

FIVE YEARS ago he found himself at the peak of his political career when leading protests outside Parliament by the anti-government People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC). But today, Suthep Thaugsuban sees his popularity in a slump as he returns to the same streets, though for a different purpose.

Everywhere he went in 2013 and 2014, Suthep would meet with a large, cheering crowd calling out his nickname at the time, “Lung Kamnan”, as they fought together to oust a regime they viewed as corrupt. Once the movement achieved its goal of bringing down the government, Suthep, to prove that the fight had not been for his personal gain, pledged to never again return to politics.

But now the former PDRC secretary-general is back in the game. Although he maintains that he will not take up any political position, his fellow PDRC fighters just cannot look at him the same way they did five years ago.

The picture now is almost sad, as everywhere he goes to seek members for his party, Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT), the once popular protest leader has met with cool responses and sometimes heated confrontation.

One former protester, to show his loss of faith in Suthep, even handed him back the whistle he’d blown during the anti-government demonstrations. Whistles, used in shrill protest in the thousands, became the symbol of the now-defunct PDRC movement.

“He should have stopped. Back in 2013, Suthep really had the time of his life,” said political activist Sombat Boonngamanong. “He would have been remembered beautifully if only he hadn’t decided to return to politics.”

Sombat said he was not surprised by the negative feedback Suthep is getting.

“Five years ago they had this common agenda of removing the government. Protesters knew he could do it and they trusted him to,” Sombat said. “But now, it’s another election. Suthep’s just not someone people think can represent them in Parliament. He’s unsaleable.”

But Suthep couldn’t avoid returning to the campaign trail either, the veteran political activist said. If he didn’t, his party would be only a wallflower. After all, negative feedback is still feedback, and it keeps the party relevant in politics and in the media.

The bitterness towards Suthep has at least pressured other former PDRC members to come out and show their support for ACT. Sombat referred to John Nuvo, a rock star popular in the 1990s who was a strong PDRC supporter. He recently announced that he was rooting for ACT, though he stressed that it was not because of Lung Kamnan.

Since the pro-junta wing could be relying on Suthep’s popularity in a bid to return Prayut Chan-o-cha to the premier’s post after the election next year, Sombat said, it should be feeling the repercussions from recent events surrounding Suthep.

Attasit Pankaew, a political scientist at Thammasat University, said the decline in Suthep’s popularity reflected the disappointment PDRC members felt about Suthep and his failure to keep his promise.

However, it’s too soon to predict whether ACT and the pro-junta wing might meet with disaster, Attasit said. They still had time to reverse the game, he said.

Air Chief Marshal Prajin, former commander-in-chief of the Royal Thai Air Force, was admitted to Bhumibol Adulyadej Hospital on Sunday afternoon for treatment, spokesman ACM Monthon Satchukorn said.

His doctor has said Prajin would need five to seven days for treatment, the spokesman revealed, adding the deputy PM’s condition was not serious.

Prajin’s schedules from Monday would need to be cancelled, Monthon said. These include his presence to preside over a seminar on a draft law regarding registration of “life partnership” between same-sex couples and at an exhibition of Berlin Wall parts at the German Embassy.

Prajin was treated at a hospital in Sakon Nakhon on Saturday after suffering from back pain during his work-related trip to the northeastern province. He was later sent to Bhumibol Adulyadej Hospital in Bangkok.

Abhisit won 67,505 votes from Democrat members from across the country, while Warong and Alongkorn received 57,689 and 2,285 votes respectively.

Read also: Does it matter who leads the Democrat Party?

The official results were announced on Saturday.

The Democrats held a primary vote last week, the first time ever that a Thai party has selected its leader with input from its members.

Abhisit won over Warong by 9,816 votes. A total of 127,479 votes were cast.

The result showed the influence of former party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban in the country’s oldest political party.

It is widely known that Warong is the nominee of ex-protest leader Suthep, who led a protest against the Yingluck government and showed strong support for junta leader Prayut Chan-o-cha to become the next prime minister.

Abhisit’s win could also shatter the dream of the pro-regime Palang Pracharat Party to have an alliance with the Democrat Party in forming the next government to support junta leader Prayut becoming the prime minister.

The Democrat Party will hold its first general assembly on Sunday and will vote on a new executive board as well as a leader. Although primary voting is not a final decision, it is traditional that the voting on Sunday would follow the trend.

Warong, who had been considered a strong candidate against Abhisit, wrote on Facebook that he accepted the results and would work alongside Abhisit for the party as well as the country.

The Election Commission (EC), meanwhile, is expected to hold the national election on February 24, though it can only make the announcement after the law on MP elections goes into effect next month, Wissanu added.

He explained that the date of the polls could not be brought forward because a lot of preparations needed to be made.

“So far no other dates have been mentioned [by relevant agencies for the national vote],” he added.

He was speaking at a press conference at Government House.

Wissanu, who is in charge of the government’s legal affairs, said that after the organic law on MP elections takes effect on December 11, an election must be held within 150 days or latest by May 9.

If the election is held on February 24, then the EC will have to announce the result within 60 days, or no later than April 24, and the new Parliament will have to be convened within 15 days, or no later than May 8.

After that, the new prime minister will be selected, who will then appoint his or her Cabinet. As soon as the new Cabinet is sworn in before the HM the King, the current Cabinet and the NCPO will cease to exist, according to Wissanu.

“The new Cabinet will have to announce its policies to Parliament within 15 days of being sworn in, which should happen in June 2019,” he said.

As for the incumbent ministers, Wissanu said they would need to retain their political neutrality and avoid using their position to benefit any political parties or politicians. Regarding the four Cabinet members who have become executives of the Palang Pracharat Party, the deputy PM said they must carefully manage their time at work, and state assets and personnel cannot be used for the benefit of their party, he added.

Meanwhile, once the organic law goes into effect, the EC is required to submit a decree calling for the election of MPs, which the Cabinet will have to get royally endorsed, the deputy PM said.

Once the royal approval is given, the EC has to set the dates for election and candidate application, among other things.

Wissanu said after the election decree is issued, the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) should lift all restrictions on political activities to pave the way for parties to start campaigning.

As for the status of this junta-led government, the deputy PM said it would remain in full power until a new Cabinet is sworn in.

He explained that unlike its elected |predecessors, this post-coup administration is not a caretaker, because it will not cease to exist.

A government ceases to exist when a prime minister is disqualified, the entire Cabinet resigns, the House of Representatives is dissolved or the administration completes its term. None of these conditions apply to this government.

“A transitional clause [of the Constitution] states that the Cabinet in office before the promulgation of the 2017 Constitution will continue working until a new Cabinet is sworn in before the King,” Wissanu said.

The deputy PM also announced the schedule of events in the run-up to the election and after the national vote. He said the calendar was drafted after consultation with relevant agencies, including the EC and the Constitution Drafting Commission.

Wissanu was earlier told by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to explain the relevant laws and the timeline in relation to the upcoming election to the media.

Separately, Prakit Siriwattanaket, vice president of Kasikorn Securities, said investors were disappointed about the unclear election timeline announced by Wissanu yesterday, resulting in smaller gains in the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index.

He said some of the larger gains made in the morning dissipated in afternoon trade and the market closed at 1,681.73 points, up 0.38 per cent.

Earlier yesterday, Deputy Premier Prawit Wongsuwan said foreign organisations who wanted to send observers to the next election can seek permission, adding that the government will consider whether it should invite a foreign agency to observe the polls.

Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai had previously voiced opposition to the idea of having foreign organisations observe the election.

He maintained that the polls could be observed by locals to ensure a free and fair election. Politicians and critics have called for foreign observers for the sake of credibility.

His son, Prai Pattano, mayor of Hat Yai Municipality, posted on his Facebook wall that Sawai died at Sonkhla Hospital of natural causes at 1am.

A bathing rite wil be held at the Khok Nao Temple in Hat Yai at 4pm.

Sawai was born on October 1, 1934. He graduated from Thammasat University’s Faculty of Law. He entered politics as Songkhla MP of the Democrat Party in 1975.

He had been deputy House speaker and deputy interior minister, deputy transport minister and justice minister. He retired from politics in 1995.