At a White House meeting with his top trade advisers, the president signed off on a swap of U.S. tariff reductions in return for China spending $50 billion on U.S. farm goods, tightening its intellectual property protections and opening its financial services markets, according to Michael Pillsbury, a China expert at the Hudson Institute, who says the president briefed him on the deal Thursday.

“It’s a breakthrough,” Pillsbury said. “He says it’s historic. I certainly agree with that.”

The limited accord caps a roller-coaster negotiation that brought the two countries to the brink of success more than once this year only to see talks stall. Diplomats from the world’s two largest economies have been working against a Sunday deadline, when new U.S. tariffs on $160 billion in Chinese goods were scheduled to take effect.

That increase now will not go forward and existing tariffs on $360 billion in Chinese imports will also be reduced, according to Pillsbury and others familiar with the arrangement. The deal includes provisions that will penalize the Chinese government if it fails to place the required agricultural orders.

As of Thursday evening in Washington, the Chinese government had issued no official confirmation of a deal.

Still, the so-called “phase one” agreement leaves the thorniest issues in the U.S.-China trade dispute to future negotiations, which are scheduled to begin next year. China’s massive subsidies for state enterprises and its practice of forcing foreign companies to surrender technology secrets in return for access to the Chinese market will be the subject of “phase two” of the talks.

Pillsbury recounted that the president told him in a late-afternoon phone call that Trump anticipates those talks continuing past the November 2020 election. Pillsbury serves as an occasional outside adviser to the president.

For Trump, the China deal is part of a sudden flurry of policy making that has dazzled official Washington in the past week, as House Democrats are advancing plans to impeach him next week.

This week alone, the administration has reached deals with lawmakers to provide federal workers with 12 weeks of paid parental leave, establish a new military branch called “Space Force,” revise a proposed North American trade deal, and broker a budget deal that would prevent a government shutdown later this month.

“It’s very ironic: In some ways, this has been the best week of Trump’s presidency, and it’s happening at the very moment impeachment is reaching its crescendo,” said Stephen Moore, who advises Trump on economic policy and visited the White House for policy discussions this week. “It’s been revealed by their actions that the strategy was to go on a policy offensive as a way to play defense against impeachment, and it’s made Trump look unfazed by this.”

Plans for announcing the deal, including whether an official text will be made public, remain in flux. The administration has said it does not intend to seek congressional approval of the agreement.

“The deal is essentially done. The mechanics of how you execute it and how you get it signed still have to be worked out,” said one person briefed on the White House’s deliberations, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press.

Under one scenario, Robert Lighthizer, the president’s chief trade negotiator, and Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Cui Tiankai could sign the document as soon as tomorrow. Alternatively, Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin could travel to Beijing for the signing.

Administration officials expect that Trump will benefit politically from sealing a deal with China. His decision to confront Beijing over its discriminatory trade practices was backed by business and farm groups who had felt the sting of Chinese behavior. Trump began imposing tariffs on Chinese imports in March 2018 in an effort to pressure Beijing to overhaul their state-dominated economy. Chinese leaders retaliated, halting purchases of U.S. farm products, in a bid to pressure some of Trump’s strongest supporters.

As the trade war escalated, costs mounted. Assembly lines were disrupted, as manufacturers petitioned the administration for permission to continue importing tariff-free Chinese parts they depended on to operate. In August alone, more than 10,000 workers were laid off, collateral damage from the trade war’s salvos. To mollify farmers, a politically potent constituency that lost lucrative Chinese sales, Trump doled out $28 billion — an amount that was more than double the controversial 2009 rescue of the auto industry.

Some were unimpressed with Thursday’s news.

“It is unclear that much will really be gained from the deal other than partially unwinding some of the disruptions created earlier this year while leaving other uncertainties in place,” economists at J.P. Morgan told clients.

Business leaders who have grown anxious for relief from the trans-Pacific tariff wars welcomed the development . “That is excellent news. It puts a floor under the deterioration in the relationship,” said Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council.

Myron Brilliant, executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said the deal would benefit American manufacturers and farmers. “It’s an important first step, but just a first step,” he said. “There is more work to be done.”

Several people close to the talks said the administration had not shared with them the text of the deal, which they described as an “agreement-in-principle.” Trump two months said he had reached “an agreement in principle” with China and expected to commit the terms to paper within a few weeks.

Even before a formal presidential decision to proceed, Republican critics of the so-called “Phase One” agreement sounded the alarm.

Senator Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican and member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, warned against settling too quickly with Beijing. “@WhiteHouse should consider the risk that a near-term deal with #China would give away the tariff leverage needed for a broader agreement on the issues that matter the most such as subsidies to domestic firms, forced tech transfers & blocking U.S. firms access to key sectors,” Rubio tweeted.

Derek Scissors, a China hawk with the American Enterprise Institute and occasional administration adviser, accused the president of rushing to make a deal. “This timing is really weird,” Scissors said. “Technically, there’s been a deal on the table for the president to sign for some time. What’s changed is they think the president will say ‘yes.'”

Early Thursday morning, Trump teased investors with word of a potential deal with China, sending the stock market briefly higher amid optimism about a breakthrough in the lengthy standoff.

“Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China,” the president tweeted shortly after Wall Street opened. “They want it, and so do we!”

The Dow Jones industrial average quickly rose more than 300 points, or roughly 1 percent, within the first hour of trading as financial markets cheered the prospect of a “Phase 1” deal with China. The market later surrendered some of its gains, though, and closed at 28,132.05, up almost 221 points or 0.8 percent.

The emerging deal would fall well short of the president’s initial goal: a comprehensive settlement of U.S. complaints about subsidized Chinese state businesses and trade secrets theft.

The president has often suggested the two sides were close to a deal only to see negotiations stall in the past. In April, Trump said the White House and Chinese negotiators were within weeks of an “epic” deal. The next month, talks collapsed amid U.S. charges that Beijing had reneged on a tentative bargain.

Progress with China comes as the White House is celebrating victory on another front in Trump’s trade wars. This week, House Democrats agreed to support a revised version of a new North American trade deal, which the president had signed last year with Mexico and Canada.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., backed the agreement after securing amendments that toughened enforcement of labor and environmental standards. The modified accord also dropped an extension of patent protections for a class of new drugs known as biologics, which Democrats said would lead to higher prescription drug prices.

The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is expected to reach a House vote next week and clear the Senate early next year. Once approved by the legislatures in each country, it will supplant the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, which Trump has called “our country’s worst trade deal.”

The bipartisan cooperation on trade is occurring even as House Democrats move forward with plans to impeach the president over his demand that Ukraine announce an investigation of one of his political rivals before receiving $391 million in congressionally authorized military aid.

Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak made the remarks on Thursday (December 12) after the meeting of the committee on government finance and fiscal policy to consider the medium-term fiscal plan for 2021-2024.

Somkid said it was a good thing that S&P Global Ratings had revised its outlook onThailand’s sovereign credit rating to positive from stable, which reflected that the Thai economy was still in good shape when compared to many other countries.

However, Thailand would still keep a close watch on the economic situation next year, he added.

For months, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been quietly ramping up efforts to hunt for suspicious transactions by using technology to pore through reams of market data, said three people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the examination isn’t public. The goal is to assess whether some traders are getting a heads up before the release of key economic statistics or federal agencies’ policy announcements.

The CFTC began the push well before the Vanity Fair story ran in October. Upon reviewing the trades highlighted in the piece, the agency was unconvinced and couldn’t substantiate its insinuations of wrongdoing, said two of the people. The Securities and Exchange Commission reached a similar conclusion, one of the people said.

Still, watchdogs acknowledge that the article spotlighted an issue that risks undermining investor confidence: The futures market hasn’t been policed for insider trading nearly as much as the stock market has.

In theory, that could make the derivatives ideal for traders to take advantage of illicit tips that precede big moves for currencies, oil prices or even broad equity indexes. And news out of Washington, including reports on monthly job growth and President Donald Trump’s tweets, is known to trigger some of the wildest swings in futures markets.

CFTC and SEC officials declined to comment on the Vanity Fair article. But CFTC Enforcement Director Jamie McDonald was adamant that regulators have stepped up their data-crunching to boost market surveillance.

“The early returns on our investments in data analytics have been positive,” he said in a statement. “We expect the longer-term impact of our efforts to be even more substantial, as we continue to prioritize detecting and prosecuting misconduct that can undermine the integrity of our markets, like the various forms of insider trading prohibited in the derivatives and commodities markets.”

Concern that futures traders might be profiting from inside information prompted lawmakers to include a provision known as the Eddie Murphy rule in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. The regulation for the first time made it illegal for investors to engage in the type of scheme depicted in the famed 1980s movie “Trading Places,” in which characters played by Murphy and Dan Aykroyd used a leaked government crop report to make millions betting on orange juice futures.

“There’s much more behavior that is prohibited under the new law,” said Geoffrey Aronow, a law partner at Sidley Austin and former head of enforcement at the CFTC. “The new law is a bigger hammer for the CFTC to bring insider trading cases. It’s an incredibly broad provision.”

Yet in the decade since Congress approved Dodd-Frank, there’s little evidence that the CFTC has made much use of the Eddie Murphy rule beyond a smattering of cases. For example, the CFTC accused a broker last year of sharing customers’ confidential investments in energy contracts with a friend and using the friend’s account to make trades.

McDonald, a former federal prosecutor who joined the CFTC in 2017, has made an effort to prioritize insider trading, announcing last year that the agency had formed a specialized task force.

The CFTC now faces more pressure to show results, particularly in ensuring that government leaks aren’t giving some traders an edge. After Vanity Fair published its story, a dozen Democratic lawmakers demanded that the agency, the SEC and criminal authorities investigate the “disturbing reports of suspicious trading in our futures and equities markets” described in the article.

The Oct. 16 piece dubbed the transactions “Trump Chaos Trades” because they were all made shortly before market-moving news — some of which involved public statements by the U.S. president. The story cited unnamed traders speculating that inside information played a role in five perfectly-timed transactions involving S&P 500 e-mini futures that netted gains of as much as $1.8 billion.

Wall Street widely panned the article. The piece attributed billions of dollars worth of transactions to a single bad actor or group of cheaters, a premise that industry insiders said was an implausible reading of trading data.

CME Group Chief Executive Officer Terry Duffy, who runs the exchange where the trades purportedly took place, called the story “nonsensical.” Other critics said comments by public figures such as Trump frequently move markets so someone looking for suspicious timing is almost guaranteed to find it.

The story’s author, William D. Cohan, said his article was based on traders with decades of experience alerting him to suspicious transactions.

“I reported what traders were telling me,” he said in an email. “I am pleased the regulators looked into it and I am ecstatic they didn’t find anything.”

Democrats have previously expressed concern that Trump or his aides might be inappropriately sharing market-moving information.

Last year, three senators including Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren asked the SEC and CFTC to investigate whether there were unusual transactions tied to a June 2018 incident when Trump drove markets higher by tweeting that he was “looking forward” to the jobs report about an hour before its release. At lawmakers’ behest, regulators looked into the matter and didn’t bring a case, according to two people familiar with the matter.

A bill drafted by lawmakers in Merkel’s ruling coalition stipulates that German authorities should be able to exclude “untrustworthy” 5G equipment vendors from “core as well as peripheral networks.” That goes beyond previous calls that sought to ban the Chinese firm from the more sensitive core network alone.

The effort in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, is a major challenge to Merkel’s attempts at balancing security considerations over 5G with Germany’s delicate economic ties with China. Hawks in her government, including German intelligence agencies and the Interior Ministry, have warned that Huawei’s ties to the government in Beijing pose a security risk.

While the draft doesn’t explicitly name Huawei, it’s tailored to the Chinese company and comes after months of debate about 5G security. Huawei has repeatedly denied allegations over potential espionage and sabotage.

The draft legislation obtained by Bloomberg News says that security guidelines set out by Merkel’s government, which include a certification process and a declaration of trustworthiness, don’t go far enough. The political and legal systems in a vendor’s country of origin must also be taken into account, the draft says in a direct allusion to China.

While negotiators haggle over a final draft, the stringent security standards set by lawmakers in Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union-led bloc and in the Social Democratic party illustrate the momentum building against the Shenzhen-based technology giant. CDU lawmakers approved a motion at a party convention last month calling for further restrictions.

Calling 5G technology Germany’s “digital nervous system,” lawmakers said that Europe already possessed two companies that represent an alternative to “state subsidized” competitors posing a threat — a reference to Finland’s Nokia Oyj and Sweden’s Ericsson AB.

“It is thus in Germany’s own interest to rely on European solutions with respect to the 5G network expansion and to cultivate European champions,” the draft said.

Excluding Huawei from the peripheral network — and not just the more sensitive core — would create headaches for Germany’s telecom companies, who have warned that banning the vendor would delay the county’s 5G build-out and make it more expensive.

Telefonica’s German unit, which operates the country’s second-largest wireless network, earlier this week said Wednesday it picked Huawei and Nokia to take an equal role in supplying its 5G network upgrade.

The Merkel government had proposed a compromise that imposes partial restrictions that Telecom executives were prepared to accept as long as the Chinese vendor had access to less sensitive parts.

But the lawmakers’ proposal would even go beyond a recommendation by Merkel’s spy chief, Bruno Kahl, the head of the Federal Intelligence Service. While Huawei is too dependent on the Chinese Communist Party and “can’t be fully trusted,” Kahl said in October, “there may be areas where a participation doesn’t have to be excluded.”

“There are some initial signs of stabilization in the growth slowdown and of a mild increase in underlying inflation,” she told reporters on Thursday. “The risks surrounding the euro-area growth outlook, related to geopolitical factors, rising protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets, remain tilted to the downside, but have become somewhat less pronounced.”

The euro jumped as high as $1.1154 before paring gains to trade up 0.1% at $1.1141 at 3:21 p.m. Frankfurt time.

Still, Lagarde unveiled updated economic forecasts that show the outlook remains muted for now. Growth will be 1.1% next year — a slight revision lower — and 1.4% in 2021, the bank predicted. The first outlook for 2022 showed an expansion of 1.4% that year. Inflation is seen at 1.6% in 2022 — still below the goal of just under 2%.

The Governing Council earlier held its deposit rate at a record-low minus 0.5%, and bond purchases at 20 billion euros ($22 billion) a month, sticking to a controversial package unveiled in September.

Yet pressed on whether the ECB needs to take further action, Lagarde said that “we are very aware of the side effects” of negative rates and called on governments to help out with fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. “It would be very welcome to have other policies join the monetary policy in order to support the reduction of slack.”

The president also pledged the central bank’s first strategic review since 2003, giving it an opportunity to assess whether the inflation goal needs to be adjusted. On Thursday, she said such a review is “overdue” and she aims to start it in January, completing it before the end of the year.

It needs to be “comprehensive” and include consultation with members of the European Parliament, the academic community and representatives of civil society, she said. She added that there is no “preconceived landing zone” but it will address challenges including climate change, technology, and rising inequality.

She expressed disappointment that the European Union was unable to agree this week on a set of standards for defining green investments, which would have been “extremely helpful” for the ECB in her ambition to contribute to combating global warming. That’s a “call to find an agreement,” she said.

Lagarde’s broad plans have worried some officials, who fear being diverted from their primary mandate of restoring price stability. Inflation has averaged just 1.2% so far in 2019, despite years of unprecedented and often contentious stimulus.

While some economic indicators have suggested lately that the bloc’s slowdown might be easing, Germany remains embroiled in its worst manufacturing slump in a decade, and the U.S.-China trade war and Brexit have continued to weigh on growth. Lagarde said the latest signs are that U.S.-China talks are “heading in a better direction.”

She also signaled that she’ll take a far broader view of the ECB’s mission, saying she wants to “explore each and every corner” of the institution’s operations to “better respond to serving euro-area citizens” as well as delivering on the price-stability mandate.

The stock climbed 4.6% to close at 36.80 riyals in Riyadh, finishing at $1.96 trillion. Aramco earlier rose as much as 10%, the daily limit, in trading of 418 million shares, up from 31.6 million Wednesday.

The gain, which follows a 10% surge on Wednesday, reflects the kingdom’s efforts to engineer a successful start to trading after international investors balked at the price in the initial public offering. Saudi Arabia encouraged local individuals to purchase and hold the stock through cheap loans and a bonus-share plan, while pushing wealthy families and regional allies to buy as well.

The offering consisted of only 1.5% of Aramco’s stock, so that investors who didn’t get allocated shares in the IPO had to buy in the secondary market.

“We were expecting this IPO to be a blockbuster, and the performance in the past two days shows that was the case,” said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial Consultancy in Dubai, who has high-net-worth individuals from the Gulf among his clients. “From the appetite we see for the stock, there is room for it to climb another 10% to 18% next week.”

Aramco raised $25.6 billion in the deal, selling shares at 32 riyals each and overtaking Microsoft and Apple as the most valuable listed company.

The IPO has become synonymous with the crown prince and his efforts to reshape the economy of the world’s biggest oil exporter. But his insistence on the $2 trillion valuation deterred international investors, many of whom said the stock was too expensive given governance and geopolitical concerns.

Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. said after the first trading day that it’s already time to cash out. In a Bloomberg survey last month, global money managers put Aramco’s fair value at between $1.2 trillion and $1.5 trillion.

While hitting the target may vindicate Saudi officials, it could complicate any plans to sell part of Aramco’s shares abroad as originally envisaged by Prince Mohammed in 2016, when he said a dual listing could raise as much as $100 billion. Saudi officials met in recent weeks with international investors to sound them out on a possible listing of Aramco’s shares in Asia, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

Still, the IPO — touted as part of a blueprint for life after oil for the kingdom — is a watershed moment for a business that’s bankrolled Saudi Arabia and its rulers for decades.

The debut was cheered by Saudi and Gulf investors, who see the stock price supported by Aramco’s guaranteed dividends, buying by index-tracking funds and the fact that the region doesn’t have any other listed major oil companies.

Aramco’s “$2 trillion valuation is justified due to secured dividend streams,” Arqaam Capital analysts including Rita Guindy and Jaap Meijer wrote in a report on Wednesday in which they initiated coverage with a buy recommendation and price target of 39.20 riyals.

Arqaam expects a gradual increase of 2% annually in the dividend, potentially being topped up by a special payout of $20 billion in the next three years.

The Fed lowered the interest rate in July, September and October in an effort to calm recession fears on Wall Street and counter the negative impact of Trump’s trade war. The benchmark U.S. interest rate is just shy of 1.75 percent, down from nearly 2.5 percent a year ago.

A lower interest rate makes it cheaper to borrow money to buy a home and car or to start a business. It also means savers get less in monthly interest on the money they keep in savings accounts at banks. Many retirees have complained the Fed is hurting them by keeping rates down, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said his top goal is ensuring that the recovery, which is now in its 11th year, keeps going.

“We expect moderate growth to continue,” Powell said in a news conference Wednesday. “We reduced [interest rates] by three-quarters of a percentage point. This shift has helped support the economy and has kept the economy on track.”

Fed leaders predict the economy will grow 2 percent next year, a downgrade from 2.2 percent growth this year and 2.9 percent in 2018.

For months, the Fed has stressed there were many “head winds” and “uncertainties” about the economic outlook, but there is no longer any mention of that in the official statement, an indication that the central bank thinks the economy is stronger now than it was over the summer.

“Do-nothing Congress, and now do-nothing Federal Reserve,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Bank. “Looks like policy is stuck in neutral here at 1.75 percent without a recession or inflation, neither of which are very likely anytime soon.”

Trump has blasted the Fed for allegedly keeping interest rates too high, calling central bank officials “boneheads.” He has urged them to cut rates to zero, effectively allowing people and businesses to borrow money free. But Wall Street investors and most economists think the Fed will stay on hold for months to come. Investors are penciling in one more rate cut before the election, probably in July or September.

Powell left the door open to changing interest rates in 2020, but he stressed there is a high bar for moving rates up or down.

“We’re going to do what we think is the right thing for the economy,” Powell said. If there is a “material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly.”

Economists say the Fed’s actions kept the economy on track despite head winds from weak global growth and Trump’s trade war.

Recession fears peaked in August when the “yield curve” inverted – a warning sign that typically occurs a year or two before a recession takes hold. But the yield curve has returned to normal, and the chance of recession has fallen from about 50 percent in August to below 25 percent now, according to most analysts.

Stocks are now back at record highs. Unemployment is at a half-century low, inflation remains tame, and the economy continues to grow at a healthy pace around 2 percent, with little chance of a recession. Wall Street is also hopeful that Trump will not enact any more tariffs.

As the economic outlook has improved for 2020, Trump has lessened his attacks on the Fed. He tweeted (or retweeted) 43 times about the Fed ahead of the central bank’s September meeting. He reduced that to five times ahead of the Fed’s October meeting and nine times ahead of Wednesday’s meeting.

The Fed’s policy-setting committee will holds its next meeting Jan. 28-29, less than a week before the Iowa caucuses begin the primary process to select the Democratic presidential nominee.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is the only candidate seeking the Democratic nomination who agrees with Trump that interest rates are too high. Most Democrats do not think it is appropriate for the president to weigh in on monetary policy, which is supposed to be independent of politics.

“The big news was that the vote was unanimous for the first time in five meetings. This signals a higher level of comfort with the state of the economy,” said Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree.

The S&P 500 halted a two-day slide as the central bank’s decision fueled bets that the bar for an increase in rates remains high even as economic growth is steady. The 10-year Treasury rate fell below 1.8%.

The Fed, in its first unanimous vote since May, said it will continue to monitor the implications of data for the economic outlook “including global developments and muted inflation pressures.” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will keep rates where they are unless there’s a meaningful change in the outlook.

“It’s ‘steady as she goes’ from the Fed today,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede Trust. “This accommodative stance should provide a measure of support for risk assets heading into the new year.”

Equity gains had been muted throughout the session as investors kept an eye out for trade headlines. The Dow Jones industrial average was little changed amid more trouble for Boeing’s Max plane and Home Depot’s weak forecast. Crude slipped after U.S. inventory data was released.

With the world’s top two economies still wrangling over an interim deal, Thursday may bring news as President Donald Trump is expected to talk to his trade team about china, according to people familiar with the talks.

– – –

Here are some other key events to watch:

– Brazil’s central bank also decides on interest rate.

– The next European Central Bank policy meeting is on Thursday.

– The U.K. holds a general election Thursday.

– – –

And these are the main market moves:

Stocks

The S&P 500 index gained 0.3% at 4 p.m. New York time.

The Nasdaq composite index advanced 0.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1%.

The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 0.4%.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%.

The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 108.55 per dollar.

The euro added 0.3% to $1.1131.

Bonds

The yield on two-year Treasuries lost three basis points to 1.62%.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell five basis points to 1.79%.

Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to -0.32%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $58.84 a barrel.

Gold futures advanced 0.8% to $1,479.50 an ounce.

Brent crude gained lost 1.1% to $63.62 a barrel.